I'm a Doctor Who Has C0VlD-19. AMA

[MA81]

Um, consider the source: Swiss Propaganda Research - Wikipedia

View: https://www.youtube.com/embed/rtirKL_XmGg

 

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[GIlman]

This is completely anecdotal, but I have read about 30 CT’s of Covid pneumonia, which is the dreaded complication of severe or critical disease. All of these patients have been significantly overweight. It makes me wonder the role that obesity has in severe illness. Of course this is just one persons personal observation but it has defiantly caught my attention.

I have known of 2 people that have died of Covid, and likewise both were significantly overweight. No statistical significance in any of this but does make you wonder if there is a strong correlation with covid complications and obesity, or maybe there are just a lot of overweight people in the US.

 

[renaissance man]

For those that know me, I'm a part-time ER doctor turned entrepreneur. I was recently diagnosed with C0VlD-19 and wanted to help dispel any rumors about the illness, etc.

Quick background

- Middle aged, absolutely no health issues (like really. None)
- Never smoker, drink only 1-2 glasses of wine (or good whiskey!) a month. No drugs
- Workout 2x day (lift and cardio) - #75Hard routine, for those curious.
- Part time ER doctor still because I follow @Vigilante's advice to draw from the employee cup for as long as possible.
- Work in Texas and have seen literally hundreds of C0VlD-19 POSITIVE patients over the pandemic course.

[And yes, we are admitting a LOT of C0VlD-19 patients because they are sick. Recently admitted a 30 yo Paramedic who was sitting 70% on room air(!)]

- Not a Mask Karen/Nazi when not in the hospital. In fact, this is my motto outside of the hospital:

View attachment 34054
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This is an update I shared with a colleague today:

I tested POSITIVE via nasal PCR for C0VlD-19. I'm doing well now. Managed to knock out a great w/o this morning (db presses, pull-ups, curls) but it was rough for a while.

HPI: Have worked every weekend in June and first weekend in July in the ERs. At least 5-10 C0VlD-19+ pts/12 hour shift. Using PPE when in room, face mask at workstation.
- Last work shift was 7/5.
- Sx onset 7/7 as follows: Fevers, arthralgia, myalgia. Dry cough.
- Sats on 7/9 down to 92%/RA. Add'l sx incl. nausea, loose stools and abdominal pain. Tachycardia.
- Started HCQ +Azithro+Zn on 7/9.
- Significant overall improvement.
- Nasal swab test 7/10
- Result POSITIVE yesterday (7/14).
- URI sx until 7/14 + fatigue.
- Absolutely asymptomatic today. Checked QTC with an EKG back in Mar and nl s no findings.
- Still taking med regimen.
- Sats have been 97-98 since 7/10

AMA. Will respond when time allows.

According to what I've read (backed up claims), this corona thing is the hoax of the century:

https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-C0VlD-19/

I guess none of the facts matter when you want to push an agenda. I get the impression that sanity went out the window for a long time.

I refuse to wear masks.

 

[Meerten]

Right.

Which would put the fatality rate @ 0.004% or 4 in 1,000.

For comparison, your risk of dying from a lightning strike in your life is estimated to be 1 in 3,000.

Hmm, almost: 4 in 1,000 is either plain 0.004 or it's 0.4% but not 0.004%
Thanks anyway though, it's still great for people to know that it's like 10x less fatal.

 

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[Thoelt53]

Um, consider the source: Swiss Propaganda Research - Wikipedia

Using Wikipedia as a source to dispute a source is silly, no?

The first reference on that page is an article published in April 2020 by Bayerischer Rundfunk, a state-funded German public broadcaster

Another reference is a 2017 University of Zurich report that states SPR “appears pseudoscientific” with no source to back that claim.

SPR has sources for every single line on the website. You can make of those what you will, but to dismiss it entirely solely because Wikipedia said so...

 

[NMdad]

Using Wikipedia as a source to dispute a source is silly, no?

The first reference on that page is an article published in April 2020 by Bayerischer Rundfunk, a state-funded German public broadcaster

Another reference is a 2017 University of Zurich report that states SPR “appears pseudoscientific” with no source to back that claim.

SPR has sources for every single line on the website. You can make of those what you will, but to dismiss it entirely solely because Wikipedia said so...

Yes, we all need to evaluate the veracity & skew of the content we consume & are fed: LibGuides: Fake News, Propaganda, and Bad Information: Learning to Critically Evaluate Media Sources.: Identifying Source Bias

A quick guide to news outlets' rated on their reliability & opinion skew (see where your favorite ranks): Home - Ad Fontes Media

SPR seems sketchy--per multiple sources beyond the 30-second Wikipedia article; specific reasons listed here (e.g., lack of transparency, sources lack credibility, etc.):

Swiss Policy Research - Bias and Credibility

CONSPIRACY-PSEUDOSCIENCE Sources in the Conspiracy-Pseudoscience category may publish unverifiable information that is not always supported by evidence.

mediabiasfactcheck.com

I'm not trying to tear anyone down--I'm just saying it's our collective responsibility to critically review source info to determine its veracity.

 

[Timmy C]

Yes, we all need to evaluate the veracity & skew of the content we consume & are fed: LibGuides: Fake News, Propaganda, and Bad Information: Learning to Critically Evaluate Media Sources.: Identifying Source Bias

A quick guide to news outlets' rated on their reliability & opinion skew (see where your favorite ranks): Home - Ad Fontes Media

SPR seems sketchy--per multiple sources beyond the 30-second Wikipedia article; specific reasons listed here (e.g., lack of transparency, sources lack credibility, etc.):

Swiss Policy Research - Bias and Credibility

CONSPIRACY-PSEUDOSCIENCE Sources in the Conspiracy-Pseudoscience category may publish unverifiable information that is not always supported by evidence.

mediabiasfactcheck.com

I'm not trying to tear anyone down--I'm just saying it's our collective responsibility to critically review source info to determine its veracity.

Unfortunately the amount of information out there is insane.

I don't know about you, but I do not have the time to verify all this crap.

And honestly I wouldn't want to.

 

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[NMdad]

Unfortunately the amount of information out there is insane.

I don't know about you, but I do not have the time to verify all this crap.

And honestly I wouldn't want to.

Agree--that's part of the problem. So most of us--myself included--fall back on summarized content, which may or may not be accurate.

A question I find useful in evaluating a source is: Who stands to benefit?

Specifically for the U.S., who stands to benefit by fomenting internal discord in the U.S.? It's clearly not red or blue folks here in the U.S. We need to coalesce, not fragment ourselves.

 

[renaissance man]

Unfortunately the amount of information out there is insane.

I don't know about you, but I do not have the time to verify all this crap.

And honestly I wouldn't want to.

That is kinda the point. It's a collection of articles and evidence gathered over months and months, and it stands for proving a rock solid evidence as to why this virus is a hoax. As in, it's not the virus that's a hoax, but the agenda pushed over it.

I was following the updates since months and read lots of the sources it linked. To me it proves its point. Anyone who dismisses it because "it's too much material" is just intellectually lazy. The burden of proof lies on you if you want to disprove it, not on them.

 

[MJ DeMarco]

Reminder: This is an AMA started by a doctor with C0VlD-19 and another medical doctor who has been studying this ... @Iwokeup and @GIlman ... please allow these two individuals to take the lead on this thread.

If this thread starts to go off the rails like the prior CV19 thread, it will be locked. Again.

Thanks.

 

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[samuraijack]

@GIlman @Iwokeup

It was said by @Iwokeup in this thread that"Arguments in favor of mitigating hospital overload are valid".

What do you guys think are valid ways to mitigate hospital overload, and what would you say to the people who think lockdowns and masks help mitigate hospital overload?

 

[ShamanKing]

Going to do a swab test tomorrow by Project Baseline by Verify.
Minimal symptoms and I feel fine but need to confirm for safety of my family.

 

[Iwokeup]

Statistics are skewed depending on the narrative being pushed. This sadly seems like the the state of "studies" these days. You basically have to trust the funding source of these studies isn't paying for the results they publish. In a perfect world, all studies are done for the facts, but corruption is real.

Agreed. There's so much disinformation or willing blindness to information that contradicts what you want to believe. On all sides.

The total number of US deaths being advertised is in the mid 100,000's. I also heard that total includes deaths where the patient had COVID at the time of death, but it was not caused by COVID. Some weeks ago, a board member of the San Diego county health department(?) said of the 3.3m population, there were ~112 COVID-related deaths on record and only ~6 were CAUSED by COVID.

If true that's horrible.

Take this with a grain of salt, but here is the CDC's own tabulation of "excess deaths" in the US since Feb 1 2020. You can play around with data visualization by choosing different metrics.

• Looking at the far end of the graphs, it looks like there have been a fair number of excess deaths since the pandemic started.
• What we don't know:
  • How many of those excess deaths were due to treatable conditions that went untreated because people feared the Rona?
  • How many of those excess deaths were truly from the 'Rona? GI=GO

hen I heard hospitals are paid ~$9k for each COVID case, and paid an additional ~$30k for each COVID patient that requires a ventilator. I saw multiple videos of actual doctors telling stories like this. I also heard if you're put on a ventilator for a long enough period of time, it's hard for the body to breathe on its own again. I'm sure at least some patients were put on ventilators when they didn't need to be, resulting in avoidable deaths.

So how many of the deaths are actually CAUSED by COVID, and how many were avoidable? My guess is less than half.

All of these conflicting studies and narrative pushes forced me into my stance, which is, trust nobody. The only problem is one of the narratives is making my life harder for what seems like no reason. I've seen the suits that virologists have to wear, and a bandana isn't stopping anything. We might as well not "slow the spread" and get it over with so we can get on with our lives.

Trust no one is a great place to come from. I'm telling you, just because someone is an "expert" at something, if the data sucks then your estimates are going to suck. Plus this disease is like but unlike anything we've ever seen before, so it's difficult to be an expert.

Sorry, more of a rant than a question. I appreciate your non-politicized feedback on this, and I hope you're doing well.

Doing well. Off quarantine today and it feels good man. But watching grown men act like scared children is just.....wrong, man.

 

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[Iwokeup]

Hi Dr. You mentioned that if you made it thought the next 48 hours, you would be fine. How are you feeling? Hope you’re doing better.

Say that you lived with an elder family member who moved out when you became ill. This family member has all the dangerous preconditions such diabetes, heart condition and hypertension.

At what point would you feel safe for him/her to return and live with you again? In other words, at what point would you be considered noncontagious? Is it a certain time period after initial symptoms? Is it a lack of symptoms? Is it a negative test? Thank you

5-7 days. If you or anyone is asymptomatic at that point, the chance of transmission to someone else is essentially zero.

 

[Iwokeup]

There is no real evidence masks work. I looked at the research on the CDC site. None of the studies they cite would really indicate they would. There are studies with influenza and mask wearing, that shows no statistical difference between mask and no mask. Covid in many ways is similar to flu.

I use to think masks might be useful, but after watching people wearing masks, it’s apparent that there is a general lack in people understanding hygiene. People are constantly touching their masks, adjusting them up and down, not covering their nose, etc. You don’t see this in health care workers in hospitals, because they receive training on such things.

Also, I can tell you that in a medium sized hospital here in Phoenix they have had 150 employees infected as of last Friday. And they are all wearing masks all day long. And these are people who have received training and experience n using PPE.

Even IF masks are effective in catching and filtering the virus, it just becomes a collector and concentrator of infected spit that people touch and spread all over.

Are masks more helpful or hurtful in spreading covid? The jury is out at this time, but the evidence and observation of mask hygiene behaviors I would say I’m not hopeful that masks do more good than harm.

Agree with all of your points. Have made these exact same points on blog and FB posts. FB posts were immediately deleted.

I put it to the public like this: "If doctors and nurses wearing full on PPE (hat, face shield, goggles, surgical mask over N95, gloves, gowns and booties) are all coming down with C0VlD-19, what makes you think that your mask is really going to prevent or reduce transmission?

Plus the key is as I've said: the general public ALL have horrible mask hygiene behaviors. Might as well not even be wearing a mask.

Don't get me started on the whole glove thing......

 

[Iwokeup]

Agreed.

Do we know more about its origin? Does the story seem to be "a guy that ate a bat", or does it seem to be "who the f*ck didn't close the door of the laboratory this morning?!", if you know what I mean. Don't you think that the level of puzzleness the medical community is being victim of with this virus has something to do with its origin? I know it very much sounds like conspiracist stuff, but it's a genuine question : ) .

Thx for this thread and for your work.

Great question. I did some digging and came up with a very lengthy but excellent article"

The Case Is Building That C0VlD-19 Had a Lab Origin
link
Money quote (for me):

Apart from descriptions in their publications we do not yet know exactly which viruses the WIV was experimenting with but it is certainly intriguing that numerous publications since Sars-CoV-2 first appeared have puzzled over the fact that the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein binds with exceptionally high affinity to the human ACE2 receptor “at least ten times more tightly” than the original SARS (Zhou et al., 2020; Wrapp et al., 2020; Wan et al., 2020; Walls et al., 2020; Letko et al., 2020).

 

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[Iwokeup]

Unless I missed it, that article has no info on transmissibility of COVID by children (full article here). Current research suggests that younger children transmit COVID at lower rates than adults, but that older children & adolescents have transmission rates similar to adults:

• C0VlD-19 Transmission and Children: The Child Is Not to Blame
• Children rarely transmit C0VlD-19, doctors write in new commentary: Schools can reopen in fall, they say, if safety guidelines are observed and community transmission is low
• Contact Tracing during Coronavirus Disease Outbreak, South Korea, 2020
• https://www.pasteur.fr/fr/file/35404/download

That said, we have little to no info on the longer-term effects of the virus--for children, adolescents, and adults who acquire it; the range of possibility is wide (from none to severe), and will take years to uncover.

If this was Ebola--about which more is known and the mortality rate is much higher--it'd be easier to make decisions about quarantines, masks, schools, workplaces, gatherings, etc. But with so much uncertainty, emerging data, and politicization, most people fall back to simplistic gut opinions, mental heuristics, & cognitive biases.

It doesn't. But the supplemental info and reports from the researchers reportedly support the no child to adult pathway.

I'm reading through that early case report from South Korea. They don't mention genetic analysis which would be the gold standard, IMHO. But yeah, what they present is compelling.

 

[Iwokeup]

I also picked one up. At the doc's office (I have cancer so I go regularly) I always read 97-99, and that's at 5000' altitude. Got my new fingertip reader and it's always reading 88-92 or so. WTF!? Is it defective? So today I had a doc appt and took my meter. Doc's oximeter said I was 98-99, mine said... 98. Hm.

Then I came home, popped it on my finger again, and ... 89.

Again, WTF? Do I have low oxygen in my house!??

That's really weird. I have a patient who does that too. We've been troubleshooting and swapped out the pulse ox and that seemed to help. Good luck.

 

[MTF]

5-7 days. If you or anyone is asymptomatic at that point, the chance of transmission to someone else is essentially zero.

That's interesting. I've read this:

• The median incubation period from infection with SARS-CoV-2 to onset of symptoms is approximately 5 days.
• 97.5% of people infected with SARS-CoV-2 will exhibit symptoms by 11.5 days.
• Monitoring people exposed to SARS-CoV-2 for 14 days for development of symptoms should be sufficient to identify 99% of cases or more.

source: Estimated Incubation Period of C0VlD-19 - American College of Cardiology

Some other sources that also cite longer incubation periods:

Coronavirus Incubation Period (COVID-19) - Worldometer

Current estimated incubation period (how long it takes for symptoms to appear) for the Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) from Wuhan, China

www.worldometers.info

This would mean that your chances of transmission are not essentially zero after 5-7 days but more likely after 14 days. What do you think about it?

 

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[Iwokeup]

One thing that I have not seen mentioned... What are the actual risks of contracting C0VlD-19 while flying and on an airplane? Were the risks associated with that overexaggerated?

Obviously there is no social distancing in an airplane but it seems like the early theories that it's unsafe were overblown.

Thoughts?

Great question. The closest analog that we have so far is the Diamond Princess cruise ship situation, where a passenger was diagnosed with C0VlD-19 and the entire ship was quarantined. This link gives a nice overview of the following paper:

ng AJ, Cocks C, Green JP. C0VlD-19: in the footsteps of Ernest Shackleton. Thorax. Published Online First: 27 May. 2020

Summary from the link:

The 128 passengers and 95 crew were screened for C0VlD-19 symptoms (including body temperature) before boarding. Passengers from South East Asia were not allowed aboard.

On day 8 of the cruise (which had been aborted because of international border controls) the first case appeared and was immediately isolated. Barriers were used throughout the ship. Other cases followed among passengers and crew. On day 17 a seriously ill patient was admitted to hospital in Montevideo followed by 7 others in the following days.

All 217 passengers and crew were tested on day 20, and 128 (59%) tested positive for C0VlD-19. In ten cases two passengers sharing a cabin recorded positive and negative result, that is 20/128 (16%

So that's a 59% positive rate for a group of people quarantined on a ship with shared air-handling, etc over a prolonged (20 day) time course.

My guess? A short (<3 hour) airplane ride is an unlikely though not zero probability risk of transmission. Would depend upon how often air is recycled, whether there is a good filtration system in place, size of the plane, etc. My thinking is that a mask is likely a good idea for flights.

I reserve the right to have my mind changed with new data, however.

 

[Iwokeup]

This is completely anecdotal, but I have read about 30 CT’s of Covid pneumonia, which is the dreaded complication of severe or critical disease. All of these patients have been significantly overweight. It makes me wonder the role that obesity has in severe illness. Of course this is just one persons personal observation but it has defiantly caught my attention.

I have known of 2 people that have died of Covid, and likewise both were significantly overweight. No statistical significance in any of this but does make you wonder if there is a strong correlation with covid complications and obesity, or maybe there are just a lot of overweight people in the US.

Right. I've yet to see COVID pneumonia in anyone who didn't have a BMI <35 OR who didn't already have a serious underlying respiratory illness such as COPD.

That said, my ER colleague who's on day 20 of the illness with sats dropping to the low 80s is a fitness freak, in his 40s and has no underlying respiratory illness (that he admits to). I'd guess his BMI was about 20-26

 

[Iwokeup]

That's interesting. I've read this:

• The median incubation period from infection with SARS-CoV-2 to onset of symptoms is approximately 5 days.
• 97.5% of people infected with SARS-CoV-2 will exhibit symptoms by 11.5 days.
• Monitoring people exposed to SARS-CoV-2 for 14 days for development of symptoms should be sufficient to identify 99% of cases or more.

source: Estimated Incubation Period of C0VlD-19 - American College of Cardiology

Some other sources that also cite longer incubation periods:

Coronavirus Incubation Period (COVID-19) - Worldometer

Current estimated incubation period (how long it takes for symptoms to appear) for the Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) from Wuhan, China

www.worldometers.info

This would mean that your chances of transmission are not essentially zero after 5-7 days but more likely after 14 days. What do you think about it?

Ehh....okay fine. Not zero when speaking theoretically. But the infectivity rate follows the normal distribution and 7 days is also where you're going to catch vast majority of people. It's also the number where they're letting health care workers with exposure and no symptoms return to work.

Practically speaking, I've not seen any patients develop symptoms after a week nor have I heard of it.

I wonder if there is a difference depending upon viral subtype.....

 

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[Bearcorp]

Doing well. Off quarantine today and it feels good man.

Great to hear you're feeling better

 

[Ozz]

Asian countries aren't completely fabricating their numbers. That is why they 'appear' to be better off than the US. I say 'appear' in quotes because they are no better off than the US, or you may consider the US is no worse off than them, unless you read flawed, bullshit data.

I've been in Taiwan (and Thailand in February) since this started and the US is 100% worse off. Taiwan never went into lockdown or closed schools. The only thing they have done was to require masks to be worn on public transportation. We haven't had a local transmission in over 3 weeks and on top of that haven't had a death since May 11. No matter what you think about the true statistics, it's definitely much much worse than Asian countries.

 

[renaissance man]

I've been in Taiwan (and Thailand in February) since this started and the US is 100% worse off. Taiwan never went into lockdown or closed schools. The only thing they have done was to require masks to be worn on public transportation. We haven't had a local transmission in over 3 weeks and on top of that haven't had a death since May 11. No matter what you think about the true statistics, it's definitely much much worse than Asian countries.

That is called anecdotal evidence. I have one too: I heard the chinese numbers were pretty high, that is why they had to go with such harsh measures as welding apartment complex doors in.

 

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[Ozz]

That is called anecdotal evidence. I have one too: I heard the chinese numbers were pretty high, that is why they had to go with such harsh measures as welding apartment complex doors in.

Not sure how all those things are anecdotal when they are in fact, facts. Also, you're comparing what you heard versus what I'm experiencing in person. I've been following this situation quite closely here... and yeah China is terrible. We already know that.

 

[renaissance man]

Not sure how all those things are anecdotal when they are in fact, facts. Also, you're comparing what you heard versus what I'm experiencing in person. I've been following this situation quite closely here... and yeah China is terrible. We already know that.

Anecdotal evidence - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

"Anecdotal evidence is evidence from anecdotes: evidence collected in a casual or informal manner and relying heavily or entirely on personal testimony."

What I was trying to convey here is, you have to look at the data, and not draw conclusions from your experiences.

 

[Vigilante]

I've been in Taiwan (and Thailand in February) since this started and the US is 100% worse off. Taiwan never went into lockdown or closed schools. The only thing they have done was to require masks to be worn on public transportation. We haven't had a local transmission in over 3 weeks and on top of that haven't had a death since May 11. No matter what you think about the true statistics, it's definitely much much worse than Asian countries.

Good to see you back around, man.

 

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[Vigilante]

Anecdotal evidence - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

"Anecdotal evidence is evidence from anecdotes: evidence collected in a casual or informal manner and relying heavily or entirely on personal testimony."

What I was trying to convey here is, you have to look at the data, and not draw conclusions from your experiences.

So we're supposed to listen to your opinion, in Germany, of what is happening in Taiwan?

Let me reitterate a few facts for you. Read them slowly. They're facts :

1. Taiwan never went into lockdown or closed schools.
2. The only thing they have done was to require masks to be worn on public transportation.
3. We haven't had a local transmission in over 3 weeks and on top of that haven't had a death since May 11.

Based on those three FACTS, if you have any questions regarding that post or anything to contribute beyond your own conjecture, feel free. Meanwhile, the above three FACTS sound pretty damn good compared to the hysteria in the United States.

 

[renaissance man]

So we're supposed to listen to your opinion, in Germany, of what is happening in Taiwan?

Let me reitterate a few facts for you. Read them slowly. They're facts :

1. Taiwan never went into lockdown or closed schools.
2. The only thing they have done was to require masks to be worn on public transportation.
3. We haven't had a local transmission in over 3 weeks and on top of that haven't had a death since May 11.

Based on those three FACTS, if you have any questions regarding that post or anything to contribute beyond your own conjecture, feel free. Meanwhile, the above three FACTS sound pretty damn good compared to the hysteria in the United States.

You totally missed me with your condescending style. Talking that way tells about you, not me.

Also, I wasn't questioning what happened in Taiwan. What I question is the effectiveness of wearing masks (no evidence), and the data. The numbers in the US are going up because more tests are done (which in and of itself are flawed, the PCR tests are very prone to showing false positives, but it's the best we have now). Also, everybody is talking about the 'new cases' but not the deaths. Last time I checked, there are no spiking excess deaths, compared to previous years. Moreover, just like previous flus, this takes older people and people with comorbidities.

What I have a problem with is, people willingly obeying to the eroding of their freedoms and bodily autonomy, where there is plenty of data showing that this is not really more severe than previous years` flu outbreaks.