Hyperinflation starting? What's happening in your area? Post your ground reports.

[MitchC]

 

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[Bing]

I'm convinced any entrepreneur who believes in Keynesian economics is destined to fail. If you don't understand the meaning of "money", "value" and "fiat" how can you possibly understand capital, equity or leverage?

The US has two major exports: force (military) and money (USD). Those two back each-other. Try creating your own goods-backed currency and suddenly you're a dictator whose people need liberation. The only fiat I remotely trust is crypto since at least it is decentralized, but if the Feds can somehow reverse Bitcoin exchanges, perhaps it's not as secure as we'd like after all.

Depending upon how far things fall will depend upon the best investment. If we're just facing a hyperinflation of the USD, then basically any asset will be superior; gold, crypto, stock, land, guns, whatever. However, if a solar flare (or a bunch of nukes) take out all electronics, crypto won't do you much good. Likewise if the world collapses too far stocks and gold cannot be eaten; then only food, ammo and medicine will matter.

I'm certainly not expecting people to start shooting each other over bread in 2023, but the USA is not above the USSR in terms of implosion. The question is can we undo the "central planning" quickly enough that it doesn't hurt all-at-once.

---

A little more on-point to the original question: I'm in Salt Lake City as well, so I think MJ's observations will mimic my own. Seeing gas at $4.50/gallon here ($3.10 before this started), meat up 30-40%, cars very difficult to find and the house I bought in Sept 2020 for $620 is now suggested at $910k on Zillow/Redfin/etc. I just installed solar to basically never have an electric bill again, and I'm eying an EV as a possible next step.

 

[RicardoGrande]

The US has two major exports: force (military) and money (USD). Those two back each-other. Try creating your own goods-backed currency and suddenly you're a dictator whose people need liberation. The only fiat I remotely trust is crypto since at least it is decentralized, but if the Feds can somehow reverse Bitcoin exchanges, perhaps it's not as secure as we'd like after all.

Depending upon how far things fall will depend upon the best investment. If we're just facing a hyperinflation of the USD, then basically any asset will be superior; gold, crypto, stock, land, guns, whatever. However, if a solar flare (or a bunch of nukes) take out all electronics, crypto won't do you much good. Likewise if the world collapses too far stocks and gold cannot be eaten; then only food, ammo and medicine will matter.

I'm certainly not expecting people to start shooting each other over bread in 2023, but the USA is not above the USSR in terms of implosion. The question is can we undo the "central planning" quickly enough that it doesn't hurt all-at-once.

Many salient points, especially for anyone younger than gen x.

Have a house? You might be ok.
You don't? Stick a fork in you, because you're DONE (you will never be a homeowner unless there's a mega crash and institutional investors are regulated out of single-family home purchases, or a french-revolution style event)
Have stocks or even bonds? The hyper bubble is collapsing and even faang mainstays from the past decade are plummeting down to the 200$ or below range. Bond market is also eating sh!t right now.
Bought into precious metals? You can't get what you paid for at any local exchange, even if the collapse does happen, someone would probably rather shoot you for your silver dollars than barter.
Buy into crypto? Elon musk made a funny tweet and you're down 44%, you're DONE
Keep cash on hand? We're already at 15%+ inflation, you're DONE

I don't know about the others millenials in their 20s here, but I had the misfortune to graduate and start working and saving right when all of this hit. I was able to save but thought a fastlane biz was better than stocks or other investments and never moved it. Never thought of a good fastlane biz I could take action on either, so I never put the money into the business which means I have a giant nutmeg grater hacking away at the nutsack of my savings account (ouch).
There just doesn't seem to be any out unless I can think and take action on a strong local business like Johnny Boy does.

-----------------------------
You mentioned food shortages, did anyone else catch Tucker's recent segment about how 15+ FOOD PROCESSING PLANTS have either mysteriously caught fire or were destroyed in the past 6 months? A plane crashed into a general mills plant yesterday and somehow EXPLODED, taking out a chunk of the plant.
I've been reading up on the russian civil war and 1930s ussr recently, getting disturbing holodomor vibes from the situation. (From this and the fact that railways refuse to transport fertilizer, right as we have a global fertilizer shortage).
Just 14 months for "build back better" to turn into "food shortages" huh?

Tucker Carlson Reports Over A Dozen 'Disabling Accidents' At Food Processing Plants Recently (VIDEO)

You'd think that this would be all over the news as supply chain problems and shortages continue to affect food supplies.

clashdaily.com

 

[Hong_Kong]

In my home market for RE, rates have gone up significantly. Home prices have been dropping, with some listings being slashed 20%. The most desirable listings are more or less unchanged for now. There are many anecdotal reports of people backing out of deals due to not being able to make the payments for the new rates (30 year fixed isn't really a thing here, everything more or less variable). People are fed up with the prices. More people are going to zoning meetings to try to push through more buildings.

In my target investment locations, nothing seems to have changed in terms of prices too much. (The city I target for RE investment has massive incoming investment, and new jobs etc.)

Used car prices have jumped significantly, my car has increased in price even after you account for the additional miles.

Industrial RE is in extremely short supply, I don't think this trend will reverse anytime soon due to increase of e-commerce (warehousing / 3PL space). I've also heard industrial is even harder to build in terms of zoning than residential.

For personal products, I've been fighting inflation by increasing the quantity of stuff I buy. That way if the price will likely increase, you have more stuff at the lower price.

Food inflation I predict will get much worse. With the war going on in Ukraine, food production and logistics is massively interrupted. Ukraine provides double digits percent of the worlds wheat supply. In the developing world, some countries get a majority of their imported calories from Ukraine. Africa could see mass starvation, and in turn increase prices on the shelf in the West.

 

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[MJ DeMarco]

The wife wants to paint a room, went to go get the paint, two gallons of paint, $162 !!! Holy shit wasn’t it 30 bucks a gallon a year ago?

 

[socaldude]

two gallons of paint, $162

Had absolutely nothing to do with the Fed unnecessarily buying bonds for 12 years straight .

 

[Bing]

You don't? Stick a fork in you, because you're DONE (you will never be a homeowner unless there's a mega crash and institutional investors are regulated out of single-family home purchases, or a french-revolution style event)
Have stocks or even bonds? The hyper bubble is collapsing and even faang mainstays from the past decade are plummeting down to the 200$ or below range. Bond market is also eating sh!t right now.
Bought into precious metals? You can't get what you paid for at any local exchange, even if the collapse does happen, someone would probably rather shoot you for your silver dollars than barter.
Buy into crypto? Elon musk made a funny tweet and you're down 44%, you're DONE
Keep cash on hand? We're already at 15%+ inflation, you're DONE

Enh, I'm a little hesitant that EVERYTHING will crash. If everything crashed exactly 90%, we'd just have a 90% DEflation. Purchasing power would remain equivalent. Of course not everything will crash, or crash equally. That's the question of "what is the best asset(s) to hold". If the property bubble bursts and land crashes 40%, but the dollar crashes 60%, hope you had land! Likewise if your stocks drop 30% but your crypto only drops 10%... should have had more in crypto.

At some point this is just a fancy way of saying "hindsight is 20/20". If any of us knew for certain what was going to happen, they'd make a movie about us in 5 years as the sequel to The Big Short. I'm not confident enough a bout where we're headed to make any "catastrophe" predictions (though diversifying, including energy, crypto, food and ammo are certainly things I intend to do).

 

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[MitchC]

Many salient points, especially for anyone younger than gen x.

Have a house? You might be ok.
You don't? Stick a fork in you, because you're DONE (you will never be a homeowner unless there's a mega crash and institutional investors are regulated out of single-family home purchases, or a french-revolution style event)
Have stocks or even bonds? The hyper bubble is collapsing and even faang mainstays from the past decade are plummeting down to the 200$ or below range. Bond market is also eating sh!t right now.
Bought into precious metals? You can't get what you paid for at any local exchange, even if the collapse does happen, someone would probably rather shoot you for your silver dollars than barter.
Buy into crypto? Elon musk made a funny tweet and you're down 44%, you're DONE
Keep cash on hand? We're already at 15%+ inflation, you're DONE

I don't know about the others millenials in their 20s here, but I had the misfortune to graduate and start working and saving right when all of this hit. I was able to save but thought a fastlane biz was better than stocks or other investments and never moved it. Never thought of a good fastlane biz I could take action on either, so I never put the money into the business which means I have a giant nutmeg grater hacking away at the nutsack of my savings account (ouch).
There just doesn't seem to be any out unless I can think and take action on a strong local business like Johnny Boy does.

-----------------------------
You mentioned food shortages, did anyone else catch Tucker's recent segment about how 15+ FOOD PROCESSING PLANTS have either mysteriously caught fire or were destroyed in the past 6 months? A plane crashed into a general mills plant yesterday and somehow EXPLODED, taking out a chunk of the plant.
I've been reading up on the russian civil war and 1930s ussr recently, getting disturbing holodomor vibes from the situation. (From this and the fact that railways refuse to transport fertilizer, right as we have a global fertilizer shortage).
Just 14 months for "build back better" to turn into "food shortages" huh?

Tucker Carlson Reports Over A Dozen 'Disabling Accidents' At Food Processing Plants Recently (VIDEO)

You'd think that this would be all over the news as supply chain problems and shortages continue to affect food supplies.

clashdaily.com

At some point this is just a fancy way of saying "hindsight is 20/20". If any of us knew for certain what was going to happen, they'd make a movie about us in 5 years as the sequel to The Big Short. I'm not confident enough a bout where we're headed to make any "catastrophe" predictions (though diversifying, including energy, crypto, food and ammo are certainly things I intend to do).

I think this is the best answer especially for people who don’t have significant wealth.

Diversify and buy things you need. Buy some guns, buy some silver and gold, buy some crypto, stock up on food, get a generator, some fuel and own a home if you can. Maybe buy a business or some income generating assets if you can find them. I think most people could blow through all their money doing that.

Mark Cuban has been saying it for years actually, you’re probably better off if you don’t have a lot of money just going and stocking up on everything you use because the prices are going to go up on them. $1000 on essentials is better than $1000 of stocks. Plus you have to pay tax on any gains you make on stocks. And what are you going to do, sell them to buy essentials that probably rose in price along with the stock.

 

[Bing]

Mark Cuban has been saying it for years actually, you’re probably better off if you don’t have a lot of money just going and stocking up on everything you use because the prices are going to go up on them. $1000 on essentials is better than $1000 of stocks. Plus you have to pay tax on any gains you make on stocks. And what are you going to do, sell them to buy essentials that probably rose in price along with the stock.

Andrew Tobias wrote a book called "The Only Investment Guide You'll Ever Need", and one of the biggest sticking point was: buy in bulk for discount. If you think you're having a baby (like I am), perhaps I should just buy all the diapers I think I'll need right now? I have the storage for them, costs are unlikely to drop, I know I'll use them... if I can get a 20% discount for buying 2000 diapers versus 50-at-a-time, why not? Guaranteed 20% return on my purchase, and immediately inflation-proof.

 

[biophase]

The wife wants to paint a room, went to go get the paint, two gallons of paint, $162 !!! Holy shit wasn’t it 30 bucks a gallon a year ago?

At Home Depot it’s still around $30-$45, unless you get the high end paint!

 

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[Aditya Gunjal]

At Home Depot it’s still around $30-$45, unless you get the high end paint!

What's happening in your area with respect to prices?

Food?
Housing?
Cost of Living?
Repair services?

Let's here some ground reports.

My country (India) is banged too by inflation.
- 1 gallon(approximate 4 litre) cost 6.3$(484₹)
With base price just 53₹(so 121-53=68₹ taxes)
- then comes grocery part
We used to buy grocery of around 5k₹(65$) in 2014,15,16 and aftet 19 it has gone to 7k(91$)
- Housing has gone up too (this one is on loan)
We bought a house at 1.2M ₹ (16k$) in 2010 or something now its price is almost 4M ₹ (52k$)
And another one(no loan on this one, hard cash) previous to this in which we live in for just 0.34M₹ now its price is almost 7M₹
- cost of living (i dont know much about it but my father does)
Public transport has gone up, in short everything has gone up here too.

 

[Jeannen]

Indonesia just banned palm oil export, be ready for an increase in price for products based on it (Cosmetics, Cleaning products, Junk food...)

 

[Aditya Gunjal]

Indonesia just banned palm oil export, be ready for an increase in price for products based on it (Cosmetics, Cleaning products, Junk food...)

Yes they have stopped palm oil export and people in my country are thinking about importing it from malysia but it will not be sufficient

 

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[Jeannen]

Yes they have stopped palm oil export and people in my country are thinking about importing it from malysia but it will not be sufficient

Yeah, I was doing some research earlier today and it looks like India is gonna be affected very badly since there is no sunflower oil and soon no palm oil

 

[Aditya Gunjal]

Yeah, I was doing some research earlier today and it looks like India is gonna be affected very badly since there is no sunflower oil and soon no palm oil

Yes our country is shortening on electricity (coal) too, load shedding is going to be a problem here. Everything is fked pretty badly, inflation. edible oil is inflating too
I dont know how things are going to work

 

[OneManWolfPack]

Think about how Ukraine will make things worst even after the war end. I seen Zelensky promised his people that if their house is destroyed, they will rebuild it in TWO YEARS. If this would be true, think about how everything will be expensive + think how many people from Ukraine will go back there to rebuild their country. This mean less workers in EU, this mean less materials on the market, this mean extra troubles. Also how many companies from supporting countries will go there to build there and earn money. What it will mean for RE market? What if those companies will leave their countries to rebuild Ukr?

Think about all money printed for Ukraine help from EU and USA. Think about all new government contract for new arms and ammo as they need to fill everything which was shipped to Ukr. You were thinking steel was expensive last months?

Really I cannot even think how this can play out good in next couple of years or even months. If the war will even end soon, there will be even more problems to come... Not mentioned China 0 C19 policy and how it will soon impact the world. Is all that poor management in those hard times really a coincidence? Really people can act so badly on what is on their sight now?

 

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[RicardoGrande]

Deutsche Bank Sees 5%-6% Fed Target Rate and Deep U.S. Recession

www.bloomberg.com

The establishment media is finally admitting the oncoming recession is a thing, whoa

 

[jdm667]

Here's how Mayor Wu is planning to turn renters into homebuyers

Boston Mayor Michelle Wu's proposed budget includes $106 million for affordable homeownership in Boston. Learn more at Boston.com.

www.boston.com

Someone should tell the mayor of Boston that turning renters into homebuyers does not magically create more housing (which is the real solution to the problem of high rents).

Gee, I wonder if the $106 million ($60 million from the federal gov) for loans and down payment assistance will make housing more affordable, or just drive prices up further for everyone?

 

[GPM]

The small 236ml water bottles I like to get for my toddlers went up about 20% in price during my last visit to Costco. Glad inflation is like 8%, when everytime I go to the store many things are up 10-50%, sometimes the same item gets an increase every month or so. My 1 L low fat protein milk also went up from 29ish pesos to 32. Not cool!

 

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[Jeannen]

Think about how Ukraine will make things worst even after the war end. I seen Zelensky promised his people that if their house is destroyed, they will rebuild it in TWO YEARS. If this would be true, think about how everything will be expensive + think how many people from Ukraine will go back there to rebuild their country. This mean less workers in EU, this mean less materials on the market, this mean extra troubles. Also how many companies from supporting countries will go there to build there and earn money. What it will mean for RE market? What if those companies will leave their countries to rebuild Ukr?

Think about all money printed for Ukraine help from EU and USA. Think about all new government contract for new arms and ammo as they need to fill everything which was shipped to Ukr. You were thinking steel was expensive last months?

Really I cannot even think how this can play out good in next couple of years or even months. If the war will even end soon, there will be even more problems to come... Not mentioned China 0 C19 policy and how it will soon impact the world. Is all that poor management in those hard times really a coincidence? Really people can act so badly on what is on their sight now?

Not to mention that since Ukraine will be under massive debts, since those « aids » have to be paid back with interests

When (if) situation cool down and don’t escalate in a WW3, there will be a massive drop of prices for the food industry (ukraine was a top exporter of cereal, sunflower oil, etc), but also probably an increase in price for steel, as it’s one of Ukraine top export, so as you said, they will have to rebuild everything and prices are likely going to explode

 

[MitchC]

‘Companies are beginning to panic’: Experts say China’s lockdowns will make inflation and the supply chain nightmare even worse

Experts say China's lockdowns will lead to a supply chain crunch on the west coast of the U.S. in the coming weeks, adding to four-decade high inflation.

finance.yahoo.com

China still locking down after 2 years and every other countries moved on

Ukraine war

Food processing plants being burnt down

 

[Jeannen]

‘Companies are beginning to panic’: Experts say China’s lockdowns will make inflation and the supply chain nightmare even worse

Experts say China's lockdowns will lead to a supply chain crunch on the west coast of the U.S. in the coming weeks, adding to four-decade high inflation.

finance.yahoo.com

China still locking down after 2 years and every other countries moved on

Ukraine war

Food processing plants being burnt down

Yeah, tbh all that shit makes me want to move out of US for eCommerce lol
I think we're going to see big changes in world economics soon, those who will be able to adapt will have a huge advantage

 

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[Aditya Gunjal]

Yeah, tbh all that shit makes me want to move out of US for eCommerce lol
I think we're going to see big changes in world economics soon, those who will be able to adapt will have a huge advantage

How should we adapt sir?

 

[Jeannen]

How should we adapt sir?

Nobody can really know

I’ll personally try to depend way less on China and maybe open businesses in other countries to get revenues stream in different currencies
Also, during recessions people prefer to focus on essential and hard discounted goods, so all the « fluffy marketing products » disappear

 

[Aditya Gunjal]

Nobody can really know

I’ll personally try to depend way less on China and maybe open businesses in other countries to get revenues stream in different currencies
Also, during recessions people prefer to focus on essential and hard discounted goods, so all the « fluffy marketing products » disappear

Yes sir recession is coming (Youtuber named mark tilubary already warned us about it). My country's bank are almost 20% dependant on china and china has shares in our bigger banks too. But sooner or later they will realise how china is making world dependant on them and using it as bait. Afterall most of the raw material is exported by china. My brother always say that this has not happened in 20 30 years, China's emperor had planned this and now its on full throttle.

 

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[farmer79]

Inflation is rampant and far worse then the government numbers.

My son says I am obsessed with Mayonnaise as I talk about the price of it to everyone. But to me it represents the out of control price increases happening. On February 4th I took the photo of the 1.42 liter container of mayo. The price of $10.49 was so outrageous and I would bring this up every time the subject of inflation came up in conversation. So I was in the same store this morning about 6 weeks later and the new price is $13.79. 30% inflation in 6 weeks for a jar of Mayonnaise. And that was after it was already outrageously priced.This is not going to end well.

Mayo inflation continues. I keep hearing we have passed peak inflation but the mayo doesn’t lie! $10.49 on Feb 4th, $13.79 on March 20th and now $14.49 today (May 7th).

 

[srodrigo]

I read yesterday that inflation is around 10% in UK. Yikes.

Germany felt more expensive than usual. One of the take-aways my family buy food from some times, was pretty much 1 extra euro for everything, which is around a 10% too.

 

[RicardoGrande]

Mayo inflation continues. I keep hearing we have passed peak inflation but the mayo doesn’t lie! $10.49 on Feb 4th, $13.79 on March 20th and now $14.49 today (May 7th).

What country is this? What size (oz or ml) jar?
I paid for 7.99 for avacado oil mayo once because it was organic, I can't imagine about 15$ for regular mayo canola oil slop unless it was a gallon from costco, whoa.

 

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[farmer79]

Canada. 1.42 litre. Milk dairy and eggs are always more expensive here because of a supply management system the government has for those products. So that is contributing a bit. However when it went over $10 in Feb that was completely outrageous. And now we are 50% higher. Costco would be cheaper for sure but they are 2.5 hrs away. We live in a somewhat remote part of Saskatchewan .

 

[AnNvr]

I am opting for learning to grow veggies in the backyard. It's like printing your own money.