Prediction: 2021 is going to be a total shit show. Place your bets now.

[csalvato]

Oh of course there are going to be ways to work around it here in the US because our government is hilariously dumb and don't have the balls to be real authoritarians no matter the party (which is a good thing lol), but it'll definitely be illegal to trade or exchange it at some point before 2025.

I’m looking forward to it

 

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[GoodluckChuck]

Housing will probably be the number one thing to watch with regards to inflation. Wages are probably second. The cigar winning answer will be when. And will it be on target with the expectations of the Fed.

I see inflation everywhere I look except the official numbers and wages. Wages will be the last thing to rise.

 

[EVMaso]

I know hardly anything about blockchain technology, and I don't even care for it that much, but in my mind Bitcoin is such an asymmetrical bet it almost seems dumb not to get some. Allocate some investment funds into it, an amount where if you lose it you might shrug and say "well that didn't pan out like I'd thought" and carry on with your day. But on the slim chance the bitcultists are correct about their coins going to the moon, you can have a piece of that pie for yourself.

 

[Timmy C]

Banning BTC is unlikely to work.

Shutting down the internet wouldn't work either.

It's not a network in the traditional sense of dedicated hardware with critical points that can be attacked and compromised.

It has no single point of failure.

 

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[csalvato]

Banning BTC is unlikely to work.

Shutting down the internet wouldn't work either.

It's not a network in the traditional sense of dedicated hardware with critical points that can be attacked and compromised.

It has no single point of failure.

The attack vector for gov't to hit bitcoin is exchanges -- limiting how people can interact with them, and effectively cutting off the biggest, most accessible onramps and offramps.

But, like I said, that doesn't reduce demand - it reduces supply.

And when supply is low but demand is high, prices rocket upwards.

In that scenario, costs would rocket upwards, and selling the coins locally (or to international buyers) would be easy for people motivated enough to do it.

 

[Timmy C]

The attack vector for gov't to hit bitcoin is exchanges -- limiting how people can interact with them, and effectively cutting off the biggest, most accessible onramps and offramps.

But, like I said, that doesn't reduce demand - it reduces supply.

And when supply is low but demand is high, prices rocket upwards.

In that scenario, costs would rocket upwards, and selling the coins locally (or to international buyers) would be easy for people motivated enough to do it.

We, the people, outnumber the banking and political powers that be, by multiple orders of magnitude.

They can stall, as they do with every technical breakthrough, but they can not make it disappear.

 

[James Fake]

I like the write up... @csalvato

For me personally; I will be living in 2020.5 until about August and then maybe it turns into 2021 for me. It's been an absolute WRECK of a year for me; one I WILL NEVER EVER FORGET.

I think there is a big stock market correction due but it doesn't come until fall (albeit it will be a regular stock market correction and not some big gigantic 1929 style crash, may be slightly bigger in size but nothing crazy crazy). I also don't necessarily see Wallstreet and Main Street "shaking hands" and meeting in the middle either; I think our system of capitalism and govt. has reached a tipping point in which the dividing gap only goes one direction, and that is further apart.

Like many other things 2020 did, 2020 really only speed up adoption on a bunch of things like remote working, ecommerce, delivery, etc.. and I also think in this case, it has speed up the gap spreading of ultra rich/poor, mainstreet/wallstreet, etc.

This actually may be or directly affect what will become the catalyst that puts an end to our upcoming Roaring 20's Era.

Just to throw a date range I'm kind of eye'ing for:
1. Bitcoin peak and enter bear: Fall 2021 (August maybe)
2. Big stock market correction: October 2021

Cheers!!

 

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[NewManRising]

I'm curious. Free to do what? Catch covid, pass it on to your neighbours and kill them?

If everyone had had common sense and cared about the rest of us, we wouldn't be in a second (almost third in Europe) wave. But God bless freedom, especially when used to not give a shit about people around. I'm sure all the front line workers who had to cancel their holidays after 9 exhausting months to handle the current wave are very happy. But who cares, right?

View attachment 36186

I still remember some people in this forum talking about "the mythical second wave". It turned out not to be that mythical.



I wouldn't believe anything that's coming from China. Having said that, there's a massive difference between countries such as South Korea or Japan, and any of the "I want my freedom back!" Western countries. Compare the number of covid cases relative to population and you'll see who did things right. Some geniuses here thought letting people going to the pub would be amazing for the economy. Tens of thousands of deaths? Bah, all good.

The result of the irresponsibility of politicians and people has been an indecent number of deaths (compared to the countries mentioned above) and a bigger economic impact in some cases (see UK, Spain, etc.) as this is lasting for 9 months and it's not over yet. Had this been properly controlled within the first two months, we probably wouldn't have seen so many people dying and such a never ending economical crisis. But maybe we have what we deserve.

They can all stay at home. We shouldn't have to give up our freedom because of your fear. The whole thing has been exaggerated and overplayed. The problem is we have too many ignorant sheep.

Where would you put your money?

It seems like you haven't read the whole thread, where several other alternatives were proposed and considered. And some have changed my (i.e. the OP's) opinion.

It seems like you're so against bitcoin that you couldn't even see that there was a meaningful discussion here. If so, that's your loss, not ours.

It's all speculation. I am not a complete noob to BTC and cryptos. I just see it for what it is.

 

[WJK]

I think there is a big stock market correction due but it doesn't come until fall (albeit it will be a regular stock market correction and not some big gigantic 1929 style crash, may be slightly bigger in size but nothing crazy crazy). I also don't necessarily see Wallstreet and Main Street "shaking hands" and meeting in the middle either; I think our system of capitalism and govt. has reached a tipping point in which the dividing gap only goes one direction, and that is further apart.

I have mixed feelings about the stock market. Yes, it appears to be overvalued at this time. The ratios of price to earnings are concerning. But, there are some other factors shoring it up. There are fewer shares on the board available for trading than there were in the past. And there are huge blocks of money out there, plus the small investors, all chasing those shares -- which pushes up the prices. The big players are global in nature and generally no longer have their hearts here in the U.S. There is a disconnect there that tends to protect them from the ups and downs of our national economy. I too believe that we're in for a really deep recession, but I'm not sure that it will be shared by the stock market.

 

[csalvato]

I like the write up... @csalvato

For me personally; I will be living in 2020.5 until about August and then maybe it turns into 2021 for me. It's been an absolute WRECK of a year for me; one I WILL NEVER EVER FORGET.

I think there is a big stock market correction due but it doesn't come until fall (albeit it will be a regular stock market correction and not some big gigantic 1929 style crash, may be slightly bigger in size but nothing crazy crazy). I also don't necessarily see Wallstreet and Main Street "shaking hands" and meeting in the middle either; I think our system of capitalism and govt. has reached a tipping point in which the dividing gap only goes one direction, and that is further apart.

Like many other things 2020 did, 2020 really only speed up adoption on a bunch of things like remote working, ecommerce, delivery, etc.. and I also think in this case, it has speed up the gap spreading of ultra rich/poor, mainstreet/wallstreet, etc.

This actually may be or directly affect what will become the catalyst that puts an end to our upcoming Roaring 20's Era.

Just to throw a date range I'm kind of eye'ing for:
1. Bitcoin peak and enter bear: Fall 2021 (August maybe)
2. Big stock market correction: October 2021

Cheers!!

Thank you @James Fend ! It really helps. It looks like my overall outlook may have been excessively bearish like you and others point out.

It's all speculation. I am not a complete noob to BTC and cryptos. I just see it for what it is.

Last time I ask before I write you off and ignore you all together: where would you put your money? I know it’s not bitcoin

I have mixed feelings about the stock market. Yes, it appears to be overvalued at this time. The ratios of price to earnings are concerning. But, there are some other factors shoring it up. There are fewer shares on the board available for trading than there were in the past. And there are huge blocks of money out there, plus the small investors, all chasing those shares -- which pushes up the prices. The big players are global in nature and generally no longer have their hearts here in the U.S. There is a disconnect there that tends to protect them from the ups and downs of our national economy. I too believe that we're in for a really deep recession, but I'm not sure that it will be shared by the stock market.

I agree with this assessment. It’s really hard to tell what will happen, because these companies may grow into the inflated PE as inflation kicks in.

but that’s a lot of growth and inflation... Tesla is trading at 1500PE and is one of the biggest securities in the S&P.

They need to sell 30m-50m units of their products to even be close to that PE, and they only sold 500k this year.... and the total worldwide vehicle market is 62M cars in 2020.

Even if TSLA is the only security to crash back to a reasonable PE, the S&P drop will cause a panic, for sure.

 

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[WJK]

Thank you @James Fend ! It really helps. It looks like my overall outlook may have been excessively bearish like you and others point out.



Last time I ask before I write you off and ignore you all together: where would you put your money? I know it’s not bitcoin






I agree with this assessment. It’s really hard to tell what will happen, because these companies may grow into the inflated PE as inflation kicks in.

but that’s a lot of growth and inflation... Tesla is trading at 1500PE and is one of the biggest securities in the S&P.

They need to sell 30m-50m units of their products to even be close to that PE, and they only sold 500k this year.... and the total worldwide vehicle market is 62M cars in 2020.

Even if TSLA is the only security to crash back to a reasonable PE, the S&P drop will cause a panic, for sure.

My greatest fear is deflation rather than inflation. Inflation we've dealt with before -- like the 1980s. Deflation would be new ground.

 

[csalvato]

My greatest fear is deflation rather than inflation. Inflation we've dealt with before -- like the 1980s. Deflation would be new ground.

I'm still unable to put the logical pieces together that lead to deflation. I definitely need to read more about the forces that could drive that after we print 30-50% of our 2019 GDP.

Also, if deflation happens, these companies will never grow into their ridiculous valuations.

Do you have any recommended resources?

 

[WJK]

I'm still unable to put the logical pieces together that lead to deflation. I definitely need to read more about the forces that could drive that after we print 30-50% of our 2019 GDP.

Also, if deflation happens, these companies will never grow into their ridiculous valuations.

Do you have any recommended resources?

Not off hand. I'm trying to get my arms around this situation.

In my 45 years in real estate, I've mostly seen huge inflation and then hard crashes when the bubble burst. My concern now is that I have never seen this type of market forces before in this magnitude -- both globally and nationally. For USA, these lock downs from the virus, coupled with the wide spread riots, and added to the recent election strife have far flung consequences that have spooked me as an investor. (And since I cut my teeth in RE in the Los Angeles ghettos, I'm not a timid person.)

This moment reminds of the Los Angeles RE market in the 1990s -- which is the closest set of circumstances to this current situation. It's kind of long story as to what happened in all the sectors the commercial/industrial RE markets over that decade. It took down the entire Saving & Loan/Thrift system of lending. I can tell you the abbreviated version of my experience with those years -- if you are interested.

 

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[csalvato]

I can tell you the abbreviated version of my experience with those years -- if you are interested.

I'm personally interested if you're open to sharing.

I am still not seeing how mass printing and crazy high stock and asset prices could possibly lead to the value of the dollar getting stronger (in fact, the DXY has been on a steady decline for months now).

So if that story could shed light on some forces of that behavior, I'd be even more interested.

 

[ljean]

Deflation is caused by people not buying stuff. Prices drop to incentivize purchases. But if you know that next month the price will be lower, you wait. But then businesses are not generating revenue today. Firms contract to cut costs, jobs are lost, then no one has any money to buy stuff and the cycle is reinforced.

 

[csalvato]

Deflation is caused by people not buying stuff. Prices drop to incentivize purchases. But if you know that next month the price will be lower, you wait. But then businesses are not generating revenue today. Firms contract to cut costs, jobs are lost, then no one has any money to buy stuff and the cycle is reinforced.

Thank you @ljean

That really clears things up.

That said, how do we go from where we are now to a world where deflation is happening?

Right now, people are spending like drunken sailors because of all the stimulus, and it looks like that won't stop.

Is the assertion that all these people losing their jobs and companies going out of business will ultimately result in a lot of people with heavily reduced buying power, so demand drops?

 

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[ljean]

I think it matters by industry. Right now movie theaters cant give away tickets. But I just got an email saying my Netflix membership is going up $1/mo. Restaurants are getting killed but my wife mentioned this morning her favorite bread from the Whole Foods bakery went up $1/loaf.

 

[csalvato]

I think it matters by industry. Right now movie theaters cant give away tickets. But I just got an email saying my Netflix membership is going up $1/mo. Restaurants are getting killed but my wife mentioned this morning her favorite bread from the Whole Foods bakery went up $1/loaf.

For deflation to be a risk, wouldn't it have to be across all industries?

 

[ljean]

Probably at least many industries. But I havent studied it. From what I have read recently, the factors that support the case for deflation are pretty much equal to the factors that support inflation. No one really knows. You make your bets and take your chances...

 

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[WJK]

I'm personally interested if you're open to sharing.

I am still not seeing how mass printing and crazy high stock and asset prices could possibly lead to the value of the dollar getting stronger (in fact, the DXY has been on a steady decline for months now).

So if that story could shed light on some forces of that behavior, I'd be even more interested.

To set the stage -- In 1990 I was putting my life back together after my husband had recently discarded me -- he was an executive-level consultant for an oil company, and I had been his trophy wife for a number of years. Professionally, I'd was a broker, investor, and a commercial RE appraiser -- way before appraisers were licensed. So, I saw the RE crash from the corporate perspective as well as from my RE career.

The first cracks in the commercial RE market came from my ex's company. They had been occupying all 48 floors in one of their twin towers. Their "test" convenience store and other shopping facilities were under the building. They sold those high-rise office buildings to a Japanese investment company in what seemed to be an overnight move. They bought land on the "wrong" side of the freeway and built a new building. This didn't make business sense to me. They had gone from a prime location to a much less desirable area of the city. I knew the players in that company and I was floored. Then, when they moved in, they only occupied 2 floors versus their previous 48 floors, plus retail space. How did they do that? They fired the whole army of secretaries, receptionists, and admin assistants. All remaining employees were given laptop computers (a new invention at the time) and a voice mail account. They were told to make an appointment for office space-time. The party was over.

And that was just the beginning. This trend cascaded throughout the office markets. It hit the A market first, and then the B & C markets. We had droves of "see-through" buildings -- high rises with no tenants. No office building tenants meant no one to shop in the retail stores and live in the downtown condos & flats. Downtown was a ghost town. (Are listening to this, New York City?)

In the meantime, the Japanese stock market crashed. Those investors had taken out full-page ads to brag about their penetration into the Los Angeles RE market. They dumped their properties for whatever they could get in order to meet their stock margin calls at home.

And then it hit the warehouse RE market. Normal was to have 60 days of good on hand for distribution. With computerization and new transportation systems (Fed Ex, UPS, etc), they now had on-time deliveries -- 2 to 5 days of goods on hand. The warehouse districts emptied out.

The 1980s had been a go-go time for RE -- lots of inflation. Everyone was living on OPM (other people's money) and most RE investors were highly leveraged. The early 1990s was the wall that they hit head-on. This time it didn't recover quickly. We had all that excess RE inventory to absorb. We, in the RE business, had a mantra. "Stay alive 'til 95." 1995 came and went. Nothing changed. We were still in the toilet in the business. No one could believe how low the prices went during those days.

And, I was hired by RTC, on their audit teams, to go in and take over the Savings & Loan and Thrifts that were holding all that bad paper. They fell like flies. The entire industry failed. Wall Street and the secondary housing market took over financing RE.

The recovery took the entire decade. I got a wild hair and I went to law school at night and on the weekends during the first half of that period of time. And I began my expert witness work and litigation support business in RE, using my degree. It was a horrible time for all of us in the RE business. I only survived because I was a fighter who was willing to meet the changes head-on.

So, that brings us to now. The commercial RE market is falling apart before our eyes. It's not just one sector -- it's everything. The housing market is in a bubble. People are moving, now that they have proved that they can work remotely. New York and other cities are ghost towns. RE prices and rents are falling. The rioters have burned down huge areas of many of our cities. Will they be rebuilt? And how? With whose money? What land uses will they have in those areas when they are done? Residential rentals are head-to-head with homeownership under the last tax relief bill due to the standard deduction. That creates a whole new market of single-family rentals. How will that affect appreciation in the housing market? And this time Wall Street and the bond markets are on the hook.

You see, I have more questions than answers.

 

[WJK]

Thank you @ljean

That really clears things up.

That said, how do we go from where we are now to a world where deflation is happening?

Right now, people are spending like drunken sailors because of all the stimulus, and it looks like that won't stop.

Is the assertion that all these people losing their jobs and companies going out of business will ultimately result in a lot of people with heavily reduced buying power, so demand drops?

Yes. And a lot of people are not buying like "drunken sailors". They are feeling afraid, getting debt-free, and saving. I'm one of those.

 

[Kak]

 

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[The-J]

Whatever happens, you know that governments are going to intervene. The question is: what will they do, and what will happen as a result?

 

[ljean]

If you zoom out its much less dramatic.

 

[csalvato]

To set the stage -- In 1990 I was putting my life back together after my husband had recently discarded me -- he was an executive-level consultant for an oil company, and I had been his trophy wife for a number of years. Professionally, I'd was a broker, investor, and a commercial RE appraiser -- way before appraisers were licensed. So, I saw the RE crash from the corporate perspective as well as from my RE career.

The first cracks in the commercial RE market came from my ex's company. They had been occupying all 48 floors in one of their twin towers. Their "test" convenience store and other shopping facilities were under the building. They sold those high-rise office buildings to a Japanese investment company in what seemed to be an overnight move. They bought land on the "wrong" side of the freeway and built a new building. This didn't make business sense to me. They had gone from a prime location to a much less desirable area of the city. I knew the players in that company and I was floored. Then, when they moved in, they only occupied 2 floors versus their previous 48 floors, plus retail space. How did they do that? They fired the whole army of secretaries, receptionists, and admin assistants. All remaining employees were given laptop computers (a new invention at the time) and a voice mail account. They were told to make an appointment for office space-time. The party was over.

And that was just the beginning. This trend cascaded throughout the office markets. It hit the A market first, and then the B & C markets. We had droves of "see-through" buildings -- high rises with no tenants. No office building tenants meant no one to shop in the retail stores and live in the downtown condos & flats. Downtown was a ghost town. (Are listening to this, New York City?)

In the meantime, the Japanese stock market crashed. Those investors had taken out full-page ads to brag about their penetration into the Los Angeles RE market. They dumped their properties for whatever they could get in order to meet their stock margin calls at home.

And then it hit the warehouse RE market. Normal was to have 60 days of good on hand for distribution. With computerization and new transportation systems (Fed Ex, UPS, etc), they now had on-time deliveries -- 2 to 5 days of goods on hand. The warehouse districts emptied out.

The 1980s had been a go-go time for RE -- lots of inflation. Everyone was living on OPM (other people's money) and most RE investors were highly leveraged. The early 1990s was the wall that they hit head-on. This time it didn't recover quickly. We had all that excess RE inventory to absorb. We, in the RE business, had a mantra. "Stay alive 'til 95." 1995 came and went. Nothing changed. We were still in the toilet in the business. No one could believe how low the prices went during those days.

And, I was hired by RTC, on their audit teams, to go in and take over the Savings & Loan and Thrifts that were holding all that bad paper. They fell like flies. The entire industry failed. Wall Street and the secondary housing market took over financing RE.

The recovery took the entire decade. I got a wild hair and I went to law school at night and on the weekends during the first half of that period of time. And I began my expert witness work and litigation support business in RE, using my degree. It was a horrible time for all of us in the RE business. I only survived because I was a fighter who was willing to meet the changes head-on.

So, that brings us to now. The commercial RE market is falling apart before our eyes. It's not just one sector -- it's everything. The housing market is in a bubble. People are moving, now that they have proved that they can work remotely. New York and other cities are ghost towns. RE prices and rents are falling. The rioters have burned down huge areas of many of our cities. Will they be rebuilt? And how? With whose money? What land uses will they have in those areas when they are done? Residential rentals are head-to-head with homeownership under the last tax relief bill due to the standard deduction. That creates a whole new market of single-family rentals. How will that affect appreciation in the housing market? And this time Wall Street and the bond markets are on the hook.

You see, I have more questions than answers.

Thank you very much for that write up. Definitely a lot to digest, and I sincerely appreciate it.

 

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[WJK]

Whatever happens, you know that governments are going to intervene. The question is: what will they do, and what will happen as a result?

Sometimes they intervene by taking out segments of the economy -- like the current restaurant shutdowns and letting the riots happen this last summer. It depends on whose side they take in the situation. You must ask yourself, who has what to gain in the situation?

 

[WJK]

Thank you very much for that write up. Definitely a lot to digest, and I sincerely appreciate it.

Think long term. Talk to "old-timers" to get a perspective on how we arrived here at this moment in time. Weathering times of change require a thoughtful mind and a nimble approach.

 

[Kak]

 

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[EVMaso]

To set the stage -- In 1990 I was putting my life back together after my husband had recently discarded me -- he was an executive-level consultant for an oil company, and I had been his trophy wife for a number of years. Professionally, I'd was a broker, investor, and a commercial RE appraiser -- way before appraisers were licensed. So, I saw the RE crash from the corporate perspective as well as from my RE career.

The first cracks in the commercial RE market came from my ex's company. They had been occupying all 48 floors in one of their twin towers. Their "test" convenience store and other shopping facilities were under the building. They sold those high-rise office buildings to a Japanese investment company in what seemed to be an overnight move. They bought land on the "wrong" side of the freeway and built a new building. This didn't make business sense to me. They had gone from a prime location to a much less desirable area of the city. I knew the players in that company and I was floored. Then, when they moved in, they only occupied 2 floors versus their previous 48 floors, plus retail space. How did they do that? They fired the whole army of secretaries, receptionists, and admin assistants. All remaining employees were given laptop computers (a new invention at the time) and a voice mail account. They were told to make an appointment for office space-time. The party was over.

And that was just the beginning. This trend cascaded throughout the office markets. It hit the A market first, and then the B & C markets. We had droves of "see-through" buildings -- high rises with no tenants. No office building tenants meant no one to shop in the retail stores and live in the downtown condos & flats. Downtown was a ghost town. (Are listening to this, New York City?)

In the meantime, the Japanese stock market crashed. Those investors had taken out full-page ads to brag about their penetration into the Los Angeles RE market. They dumped their properties for whatever they could get in order to meet their stock margin calls at home.

And then it hit the warehouse RE market. Normal was to have 60 days of good on hand for distribution. With computerization and new transportation systems (Fed Ex, UPS, etc), they now had on-time deliveries -- 2 to 5 days of goods on hand. The warehouse districts emptied out.

The 1980s had been a go-go time for RE -- lots of inflation. Everyone was living on OPM (other people's money) and most RE investors were highly leveraged. The early 1990s was the wall that they hit head-on. This time it didn't recover quickly. We had all that excess RE inventory to absorb. We, in the RE business, had a mantra. "Stay alive 'til 95." 1995 came and went. Nothing changed. We were still in the toilet in the business. No one could believe how low the prices went during those days.

And, I was hired by RTC, on their audit teams, to go in and take over the Savings & Loan and Thrifts that were holding all that bad paper. They fell like flies. The entire industry failed. Wall Street and the secondary housing market took over financing RE.

The recovery took the entire decade. I got a wild hair and I went to law school at night and on the weekends during the first half of that period of time. And I began my expert witness work and litigation support business in RE, using my degree. It was a horrible time for all of us in the RE business. I only survived because I was a fighter who was willing to meet the changes head-on.

So, that brings us to now. The commercial RE market is falling apart before our eyes. It's not just one sector -- it's everything. The housing market is in a bubble. People are moving, now that they have proved that they can work remotely. New York and other cities are ghost towns. RE prices and rents are falling. The rioters have burned down huge areas of many of our cities. Will they be rebuilt? And how? With whose money? What land uses will they have in those areas when they are done? Residential rentals are head-to-head with homeownership under the last tax relief bill due to the standard deduction. That creates a whole new market of single-family rentals. How will that affect appreciation in the housing market? And this time Wall Street and the bond markets are on the hook.

You see, I have more questions than answers.

Thank you for the writeup. What a journey you've had! I also can't imagine doing law school on nights/weekends while working full time, I had trouble in regular Uni doing just regular part time jobs! But law + RE investing seems like a powerful combo.

 

[EVMaso]

View attachment 36239

View attachment 36242

Hey Kak (or anyone else really), what are these charts supposed to represent? Throw as many big fancy economic terms and concepts in there, I'm in finance and economics learning mode, and I like to deep dive into any new terms and concepts I come across. It's slowly all coming together in my head, piece by piece.