Very concerning, by almost every metric most assets are in hyperbubble levels out there

[Mineralogic]

is anyone else concerned?

about the only deals I can find in money systems are on smaller cap stocks who have been crushed in the "BIDEN market" by shorters

 

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[MJ DeMarco]

Lots of concern shown in this mega thread...

HOT! - INVESTING - Hyperinflation starting? What's happening in your area? Post your ground reports.

I believe we are witnessing a massive hyperinflationary event underway as prices continue to skyrocket in all asset classes. Of course, this doesn't happen in 1 day or 1 week, but over the course of a year or two. Meanwhile, the Fed continues to say inflation is under control. :rofl: I've...

www.thefastlaneforum.com

And because all assets are priced excruciatingly high, sans HDTVs, this is why we're concerned this time is different and reflects the beginning of a massive inflationary process. Throw in a dumb government that continues to print money for non-essential, non-emergency spending. The end has begun...

 

[Kak]

When the relativity is the dollar, I’m not sure that we are in a bubble for everything. Maybe just the stupid always overvalued stuff that has rocketed up faster than it should. I think it’s very possible that we have had “that much” inflation.

When a bubble pops, the value of assets declines rapidly… but relative to the dollar.

Basically a bubble popping is deflationary, which I don’t really see happening right now. I bet we see DJIA 100k in a few short years. The ugly part is that all you have to show for that “appreciation” is a decline in real buying power.

 

[Guest-5ty5s4]

When the relativity is the dollar, I’m not sure that we are in a bubble for everything. Maybe just the stupid always overvalued stuff that has rocketed up faster than it should. I think it’s very possible that we have had “that much” inflation.

When a bubble pops, the value of assets declines rapidly… but relative to the dollar.

Basically a bubble popping is deflationary, which I don’t really see happening right now. I bet we see DJIA 100k in a few short years. The ugly part is that all you have to show for that “appreciation” is a decline in real buying power.

the inflation helps the speculators, debtors, struggling companies (the deeply leveraged) and governments (because they're all massively broke).

It's a short term fix to a long term illness - an illness that is likely fatal...

 

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[lludwig]

Lots of concern shown in this mega thread...

HOT! - INVESTING - Hyperinflation starting? What's happening in your area? Post your ground reports.

I believe we are witnessing a massive hyperinflationary event underway as prices continue to skyrocket in all asset classes. Of course, this doesn't happen in 1 day or 1 week, but over the course of a year or two. Meanwhile, the Fed continues to say inflation is under control. :rofl: I've...

www.thefastlaneforum.com

And because all assets are priced excruciatingly high, sans HDTVs, this is why we're concerned this time is different and reflects the beginning of a massive inflationary process. Throw in a dumb government that continues to print money for non-essential, non-emergency spending. The end has begun...

What do you think is the end result in 10 years?

I agree things are not good but don’t sound so apocalyptic.

Then again we could lose our reserve currency status.

 

[Guest-5ty5s4]

What do you think is the end result in 10 years?

I agree things are not good but don’t sound so apocalyptic.

Then again we could lose our reserve currency status.

Three scenarios as far as I can see (and I'm just a young guy who reads):

1. Mega correction, return to (somewhat) stability after a very painful downturn / depression

2. Continue on until things get really out of whack, lose reserve currency, living in the US becomes just like Canada or Europe at best, more like Cuba or Venezuela at worst.

3. Continue on and somehow, nothing happens.

 

[Antifragile]

Three scenarios as far as I can see (and I'm just a young guy who reads):

1. Mega correction, return to (somewhat) stability after a very painful downturn / depression

2. Continue on until things get really out of whack, lose reserve currency, living in the US becomes just like Canada or Europe at best, more like Cuba or Venezuela at worst.

3. Continue on and somehow, nothing happens.

What’s the problem with living like Canada? Can you elaborate?

 

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[lludwig]

Three scenarios as far as I can see (and I'm just a young guy who reads):

1. Mega correction, return to (somewhat) stability after a very painful downturn / depression

2. Continue on until things get really out of whack, lose reserve currency, living in the US becomes just like Canada or Europe at best, more like Cuba or Venezuela at worst.

3. Continue on and somehow, nothing happens.

1. can certainly happen though it won't last that long because FED go burrrrrrrrr.

I've mentioned #4 Stagflation similar (or worse) than the 70's. All the pieces are now in place except the new taxes.

Bad very yes, apocalyptic no.

 

[Guest-5ty5s4]

What’s the problem with living like Canada? Can you elaborate?

Expensive, mainly.

Lots of regulations; some industries almost impossible to do business in.

High tax in some categories (although lower tax in other categories). Realistically, the USA is currently high tax, but I would prefer the USA be much lower tax than it is now, lower even than when Trump was in office.

But yeah - at the moment, Canada is just as if not more appealing than the US.

Oh, aside from C*VID restrictions. Add that to regulations. Certain US states fare better.

 

[Antifragile]

@thechosen1 yes, it's very expensive here and taxes are ridiculous. For my personal taxes more than half goes to the government. Corporate is better but still very high. And yes, hard to deal with some municipalities as the last elections brought in the kind of people that oppose anything just because they can. Lots to complain about but then again, somehow a shmuck like me, with no network, no money - came here, learned the language and is living a luxury 7 figure life. So a lot of it is maybe luck, or attitude, or both... who the hell knows. Some days I wake up and have to pinch myself, other days I feel the weight of a ton on my shoulders because I want the next level of achievement.

And maybe its because RE is generally good business in inflationary times (if you don't overextend on debt).

 

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[Guest-5ty5s4]

@thechosen1 yes, it's very expensive here and taxes are ridiculous. For my personal taxes more than half goes to the government. Corporate is better but still very high. And yes, hard to deal with some municipalities as the last elections brought in the kind of people that oppose anything just because they can. Lots to complain about but then again, somehow a shmuck like me, with no network, no money - came here, learned the language and is living a luxury 7 figure life. So a lot of it is maybe luck, or attitude, or both... who the hell knows. Some days I wake up and have to pinch myself, other days I feel the weight of a ton on my shoulders because I want the next level of achievement.

And maybe its because RE is generally good business in inflationary times (if you don't overextend on debt).

Regardless of the reasons, your story is inspiring and I'm glad we can chat on here!

Sounds like you have it all figured out

 

[peddletothemetal]

Hard one to work out how to play too.

Stay in cash? The next one could be the one that finally does cash in. They've already printed huge amount, and that's all they know how to do for next crash, which will most likely be bigger than any previous.

Try non-cash safe havens like gold or utility and staples stocks? The charts after all previous crashes show they still take a bath.

Maybe the solution is something really esoteric, something that couldn't care less about the business cycle, land in 3rd world countries or something.

 

[Antifragile]

Regardless of the reasons, your story is inspiring and I'm glad we can chat on here!

Sounds like you have it all figured out

Derailing the thread a little, but I am far from having it all figured out. That’s why I enjoy chatting here with you and others, I learn a lot. Thanks for engaging in great conversations.

 

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[MJ DeMarco]

Hard one to work out how to play too.

When you strip it down, it comes down to raw, utility value. Water, food, housing, land, fuel, hard assets, business assets that offer similar utility value (that can adjust with the changing times) -- these items will always have value regardless of currency... they flow with the high or low tide.

 

[socaldude]

Hard one to work out how to play too

My opinion is that one asset that could have “explosive” like insurance returns is cryptocurrency.

Here’s why. The primary operational variables here is quantity and allocation.

In other words you get conned by bankers and politicians and taxed by inflation and opportunity.

Now, if the leaders in this country are smart enough to figure out what crypto really is then there is a chance it will be banned. Thats really the greatest tail risk to this investment. Like when they burned all the tally sticks in front of the English parliament.

 

[Mineralogic]

Lots of concern shown in this mega thread...

HOT! - INVESTING - Hyperinflation starting? What's happening in your area? Post your ground reports.

I believe we are witnessing a massive hyperinflationary event underway as prices continue to skyrocket in all asset classes. Of course, this doesn't happen in 1 day or 1 week, but over the course of a year or two. Meanwhile, the Fed continues to say inflation is under control. :rofl: I've...

www.thefastlaneforum.com

And because all assets are priced excruciatingly high, sans HDTVs, this is why we're concerned this time is different and reflects the beginning of a massive inflationary process. Throw in a dumb government that continues to print money for non-essential, non-emergency spending. The end has begun...

never seen anything like this and I was a stockbroker for a budding online trading brokerage in 98

crypto NFT's trading like bubbles, money laundering going on I have no doubt

 

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[Mineralogic]

When the relativity is the dollar, I’m not sure that we are in a bubble for everything. Maybe just the stupid always overvalued stuff that has rocketed up faster than it should. I think it’s very possible that we have had “that much” inflation.

When a bubble pops, the value of assets declines rapidly… but relative to the dollar.

Basically a bubble popping is deflationary, which I don’t really see happening right now. I bet we see DJIA 100k in a few short years. The ugly part is that all you have to show for that “appreciation” is a decline in real buying power.

that's the point, there's no point in bubbles and hyperbubbles like this when everyone is worse OFF in the end

100 buck bread just so some billionaires will own 99.999% of the world vs 95% now?

 

[Mineralogic]

Three scenarios as far as I can see (and I'm just a young guy who reads):

1. Mega correction, return to (somewhat) stability after a very painful downturn / depression

2. Continue on until things get really out of whack, lose reserve currency, living in the US becomes just like Canada or Europe at best, more like Cuba or Venezuela at worst.

3. Continue on and somehow, nothing happens.

losing reserve currency status would cause an epic collapse in how things have been done since Bretton Woods

 

[Mineralogic]

@thechosen1 yes, it's very expensive here and taxes are ridiculous. For my personal taxes more than half goes to the government. Corporate is better but still very high. And yes, hard to deal with some municipalities as the last elections brought in the kind of people that oppose anything just because they can. Lots to complain about but then again, somehow a shmuck like me, with no network, no money - came here, learned the language and is living a luxury 7 figure life. So a lot of it is maybe luck, or attitude, or both... who the hell knows. Some days I wake up and have to pinch myself, other days I feel the weight of a ton on my shoulders because I want the next level of achievement.

And maybe its because RE is generally good business in inflationary times (if you don't overextend on debt).

the problem with everyone's assumptions is everything is A-OK and Business as usual until prices go down significantly

what happens if US Dollar loses reserve currency?

what happens if big cap tech and cyclical stocks go into a major bear market down for years in stagflation?

what happens , wait for it, that real estate of most types goes into a major bear market and goes DOWN for YEARS AND YEARS?

what happens if cryptos go DOWN for many years again and god forbid, a major country bans it to stop currency collapse?

and lastly, what happens if no more stimulus and QE tricks are used to keep assets up Let alone the consumer decreasing spending, delaying spending for YEARS from here?


My god, so much can go wrong

My point is almost everyone in the world is relying on higher prices of every asset. We all assume nothing will go down from here.

SCARY recipe. Scary assumptions.

jesus h imagine if the opposite now occurs after the qe to infinity stops, and the tapering begins

btw, central banks can start stealth tapering behind the scenes and most people won't know until much later

Central banks own alot of assets, they can also start stealth selling and you won't know

When apple is at 75 again perhaps you and me will figure it out

 

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[Kak]

When you’re an entrepreneur, there’s always a way. We are the people who happen to the world, the world doesn’t happen to us. That said, yes we can mourn what could have been, but our focus should be on what we are able to do with the given circumstances.

Often, big shakeups mean big opportunity for those that are looking.

@Mineralogic being a doomer narrows your focus and blinds you to a lot of opportunity you would have otherwise recognized.

Like everything, I try not to be a hypocrite. I make fun of climate doomers, covid doomers and yet simultaneously, I have been a government and dollar doomer, to my own detriment.

I have learned that recognizing and understanding that there’s a problem doesn’t mean I have to be a doomer about it. I wouldn’t call myself an optimist. It’s pretty damn hard to be an optimist without being ignorant to the world around you.

I am definitely an opportunist though, not a doomer. There’s opportunity in doom. When doom is your assumption and you are positioned to take some advantage of it, I find myself laughing as it happens instead of being depressed.

It’s hard to cry into money, or for this example, gold bars.

 

[Antifragile]

@Mineralogic

you are right! And so is @Kak - this forum is not for the masses. This is a unique place for entrepreneurs. All entrepreneurs share something, one thing, we are by definition a minority group in how we interact with the world. We often see opportunities where others only see problems that cause them grief.

All that said, every empire comes to an end. The USA is not that different and if it used the USD as a reserve currency then guess what? It’ll suck for everyone in the USA, and everything will become harder. No different than it is for say UK - £ is not a reserve currency but it doesn’t make the UK a weak economy or Germany. What does it mean? I wish I knew… I wish.

your comment on everyone relying on higher prices and true but also self reinforcing- think about. FED prints 1/3 of all USD in existence in the past 1.5 years. Lending did not slow, so available credit is even higher. Rates are low means people are willing to borrow. Yes, this is inflationary! Maybe not “hyper inflation”, but high inflation for sure. No two ways about it. By definition prices are going up! And since no currency is tied to anything… what’s the difference? It’s like an invisible tax… helps politicians get re-elected.

here is a great article to read:

Inequality, Interest Rates, Aging, and the Role of Central Banks

Bad things lead to more bad things. But (some) bad things can be fixed.

theovershoot.co

 

[Mineralogic]

When you’re an entrepreneur, there’s always a way. We are the people who happen to the world, the world doesn’t happen to us. That said, yes we can mourn what could have been, but our focus should be on what we are able to do with the given circumstances.

Often, big shakeups mean big opportunity for those that are looking.

@Mineralogic being a doomer narrows your focus and blinds you to a lot of opportunity you would have otherwise recognized.

Like everything, I try not to be a hypocrite. I make fun of climate doomers, C0VlD doomers and yet simultaneously, I have been a government and dollar doomer, to my own detriment.

I have learned that recognizing and understanding that there’s a problem doesn’t mean I have to be a doomer about it. I wouldn’t call myself an optimist. It’s pretty damn hard to be an optimist without being ignorant to the world around you.

I am definitely an opportunist though, not a doomer. There’s opportunity in doom. When doom is your assumption and you are positioned to take some advantage of it, I find myself laughing as it happens instead of being depressed.

It’s hard to cry into money, or for this example, gold bars.

I'm not a doomer you moron

there is no DOOM yet.

prices are skyrocketing- I hope you are cashing in vs pontificating

but the reckoning will come

price volatility and alpha will come

will u profit or be overleveraged and F*cked?


most people are 1 major medical issue away from BK

straight up truth

How you gonna act if all assets in the world drop 50% in 5 years let alone 2?

1st inflation, then deflation

that's how the bankers ROLL

 

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[Kak]

I'm not a doomer you moron

there is no DOOM yet.

prices are skyrocketing- I hope you are cashing in vs pontificating

but the reckoning will come

price volatility and alpha will come

will u profit or be overleveraged and f*cked?


most people are 1 major medical issue away from BK

straight up truth

How you gonna act if all assets in the world drop 50% in 5 years let alone 2?

1st inflation, then deflation

that's how the bankers ROLL

Says he isn’t a doomer. Proceeds to doom.

Cool story bro!

 

[Guest-5ty5s4]

All that said, every empire comes to an end. The USA is not that different and if it used the USD as a reserve currency then guess what? It’ll suck for everyone in the USA, and everything will become harder.

Off topic but I really dislike when people like Ray Dalio say that the US empire is coming to an end and act like it’s just a natural fact of life.

It’s actually the fault of a lot of people, and it doesn’t need to be that way.

Rome lasted far longer than the 200 some odd years the USA has lasted.

It feels like a lot of people don’t care, are happy to see the US fail, or just don’t get it.

That being said I agree with @Kak that everything is an opportunity.

 

[Mineralogic]

Says he isn’t a doomer. Proceeds to doom.

Cool story bro!

show me a time in history where quick insane hyperbolic moves in asset prices with euphoria and complacency in the air didn't retrace?

oh wait, you can't

our system is not antifragile at all

its based on infinite money printing

this can't continue without dire consequences that most here cannot fathom depending on your age

it ends in dislocation

then the opps will appear

but if you lose 90% of your wealth you won't be able to see the OPPs

 

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[Kak]

show me a time in history where quick insane hyperbolic moves in asset prices with euphoria and complacency in the air didn't retrace?

oh wait, you can't

our system is not antifragile at all

its based on infinite money printing

this can't continue without dire consequences that most here cannot fathom depending on your age

it ends in dislocation

then the opps will appear

but if you lose 90% of your wealth you won't be able to see the OPPs

I am aware of the circumstances at play. I literally have a radio show where I have spent hours on the pending dollar crisis and the idiocy of Keynesian economics. I am Austrian through and through.

So no, I won't lose 90%. Why? Because I am not an over leveraged WSB degenerate buying DOTM calls with margin on companies with triple digit P/E ratios and even some companies with no E.

I own a company that serves a VERY inelastic demand that only stands to become more valuable as our economy reverts to necessity instead of desire. I have a fantastic newtork of people that I could open new opportunities up with in short order. And finally, I have physical assets, personally tradable assets, access to a lot of land, and a means to arm a small militia, despite the fact that the people I associate with could probably also do the same. I would say I am quite prepared.

Here's the deal man, I am trying to share some wisdom with you because I see a LOT of my old tendencies in your posts. Even covid set me off like this last year. I struggled for a LONG time with self imposed stress, anxiety, and an overall pessimistic outlook on the world. It was always to my own detriment.

Like I said, I am still no optimist, but I found peace in opportunism.

 

[Kak]

Off topic but I really dislike when people like Ray Dalio say that the US empire is coming to an end and act like it’s just a natural fact of life.

It’s actually the fault of a lot of people, and it doesn’t need to be that way.

Rome lasted far longer than the 200 some odd years the USA has lasted.

It feels like a lot of people don’t care, are happy to see the US fail, or just don’t get it.

That being said I agree with @Kak that everything is an opportunity.

“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship. The average age of the world's greatest civilizations has been 200 years. These nations have progressed through this sequence: From bondage to spiritual faith; From spiritual faith to great courage; From courage to liberty; From liberty to abundance; From abundance to selfishness; From selfishness to apathy; From apathy to dependence; From dependence back into bondage.”
― Alexander Fraser Tytler

Where's the opportunity in this cycle? Abroad. Find a country exhibiting "great courage," find a country exhibiting liberty oriented tendencies. Abundance is on the way out in America.

I won't be a Jew trapped in Germany. I see the writing on the wall. I concern myself with what I can do, and not what I can't control.

 

[ljean]

It does not appear to me that the US Dollar is in any hurry one way or the other.

 

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[Antifragile]

show me a time in history where quick insane hyperbolic moves in asset prices with euphoria and complacency in the air didn't retrace?

oh wait, you can't

our system is not antifragile at all

its based on infinite money printing

this can't continue without dire consequences that most here cannot fathom depending on your age

it ends in dislocation

then the opps will appear

but if you lose 90% of your wealth you won't be able to see the OPPs

- what do you suggest we do?
- what are you doing to get cover from the collapse?

 

[Kak]

- what do you suggest we do?
- what are you doing to get cover from the collapse?

Grow the circle of control and circle of influence. Shrink the circle of concern.