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Stock Market Discussion, Chat About the Latest Market Action

The Sandman

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Also, I'm not buying it that Keith is holding millions worth of those $20 Calls. The 148k open interest is probably all retail joes hoping it goes to infinity.
You think he shared a fake screen? Or sold it all right after the live stream? Come on.

1717804295508.png
 
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socaldude

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You think he shared a fake screen?

Do I think Keith shared a fake screen?

Answer: I don't know. It's possible these days.

I'm not some skeptical guy. I give people the benefit of the doubt.

But this is unheard of. Not even guys who INSIDERS trade FDA Pharma announcements put that kind of money in.

I don't think he is a very good trader though.

I'm not rooting against him as most people see themselves in Keith. We all cheer for the average Joe that made millions off a rigged financial system and greedy institutions.

I see things in this holistic framework where I don't understand how this is smart. I could be wrong though.

I think he is making a big mistake thinking social media will have the same effect as it did last time.
 

socaldude

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I don't think he is a very good trader though.

I spoke out of turn here.

He is probably one of the best traders ever.

But this doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me.
 

Kevin88660

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Do I think Keith shared a fake screen?

Answer: I don't know. It's possible these days.

I'm not some skeptical guy. I give people the benefit of the doubt.

But this is unheard of. Not even guys who INSIDERS trade FDA Pharma announcements put that kind of money in.

I don't think he is a very good trader though.

I'm not rooting against him as most people see themselves in Keith. We all cheer for the average Joe that made millions off a rigged financial system and greedy institutions.

I see things in this holistic framework where I don't understand how this is smart. I could be wrong though.

I think he is making a big mistake thinking social media will have the same effect as it did last time.
I didn’t understand much either.

Short interest is not high. His call size though big it’s not too significant considered the total size of shares circulating.

Why taking legal risk of manipulation charges while he could already retire from public eyes?

It could be that they are playing bigger games with bigger ambitions that my current mind could not grasp.

But I rather take the view that they are making a smarter move that I currently could not understand.

You don’t become a millions followers market moving online icon purely by chance. Even that CFA level three certificate places him at top ten percent of his peers in the same industry.

Alternatively for the sake of trading for potential profits and fun, we don’t need to know much either. It seems just to repeatedly exhibit pump and dump cycles. Just trade accordingly until the party is over.
 
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Kevin88660

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The show is about to start.

Place your bets.
 
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MJ DeMarco

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I sold a bunch of riskless calendar CALLS that profit from the volatility and theta. I'll get paid $35/day to hold them and have a decent upside. The calls are easier to sell/buy because that's where all the stampede buyers are; all from Reddit/social media looking to get rich thanks to some influencer.

Thanks to GME, I just paid for this month's pool service and my water bill.

Next, I'll try to get the electric bill paid.
 

Kevin88660

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Google trend for GME about 25 percent compared to 2021.

No evidence of “short squeeze” this time as days to cover for shorts remained low.

Bulls for GME are probably aiming for “dogecoinization” of the meme stock. To achieve dogecoin level market cap GME needs to trade at $60 minimum.
 
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socaldude

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Google trend for GME about 25 percent compared to 2021.

Back in 2021 retail traders were armed with stimulus money and speculative sensationalism. Today I doubt those traders are still in the game.

Not to mention I don’t think GME had weekly’s on the Options chain. Market Makers can hedge with those rather than go long stock.

Bulls didn’t do a whole lot with GME and my guess is because they can’t.

I have a lot of experience speculating with options and I can already tell Keith missed his chance to get out. He had doubled his money. I already know. That was a one and done opportunity. He’s gonna lose 50% of the money on those Calls.

Could be wrong of course but all of this seems very bizarre.
 
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Kevin88660

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The Sandman

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Dumb loser doesn't even have 1/4 bill now

xmolgvxows5d1.png


This game is FAR from over. Let's see how things look at the end of next week

This is a great opportunity to get in or buy more. I hope it drops a little more so my limit order gets filled.
 
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Kevin88660

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Dumb loser doesn't even have 1/4 bill now

xmolgvxows5d1.png


This game is FAR from over. Let's see how things look at the end of next week

This is a great opportunity to get in or buy more. I hope it drops a little more so my limit order gets filled.
I think this is could be a battle that can drag for two month, without any regulatory authority stepping in.

You need a lot of short interest to keep gme price below $30. If GME stays under $30 for a few more days this could mean that the stock is getting a higher short interest and more susceptible to a short squeeze in the future.
 
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MJ DeMarco

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Interesting GME take: The expected value on selling short-dated covered calls even with protected puts in place has an asymmetric EV @ +1000 EV. This is because the calls are so expensive due to volatility and expectations.


1718126197409.png
Win scenarios:
GME parabolic: Huge win
GME moderately up: Huge win
GME slightly up: WIN
GME flat: WIN
GME slightly down: WIN
GME down: WIN
GME moderately down: Small loss
GME down parabolic: Mid size loss.
 

Kevin88660

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MJ DeMarco

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Next, I'll try to get the electric bill paid.

Paid + a few more utilities.

I was able to sell my stock position for a 14% gain. However, because the stock is so volatile with expensive options, I was able to sell all my covered calls for gains too ... that is NOT supposed to happen when a stock rises, but with this stock's high volatility, normal pricing behavior doesn't seem to apply. After I sold, the stock proceeded to drop by 16%.

Right now this instrument is a trader's dream.
 

socaldude

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75k Calls traded yesterday at the same contract Keith owns.

Looks like that was him making a run for the exit.
 
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Kevin88660

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Looks like $35 is a good near term resistance absence of any major bullish catalyst. GME has been trading at a tight range.

The cult like supporter meme interest will form a strong support at $25.
 
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socaldude

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Sold the calls and bought 4,001,000 shares. Interesting "exit."

So let’s all discuss the fundamentals of GME.

Why should I own the stock? Are they gonna fix the issues the company is having? Will shareholders see a return? What’s going on with the balance sheet or income statements?

Are they gonna sell something different other than used games or Funko Pops?
 
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MJ DeMarco

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kkre2urmce6d1.png


Sold the calls and bought 4,001,000 shares. Interesting "exit."

I'm genuinely curious, do you have skin in the game? Or is this just some type of internet soap opera for you?
 

Kevin88660

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So let’s all discuss the fundamentals of GME.

Why should I own the stock? Are they gonna fix the issues the company is having? Will shareholders see a return? What’s going on with the balance sheet or income statements?

Are they gonna sell something different other than used games or Funko Pops?
You can earn a stream of cash flow selling covered cover or earning short lending interest by just holding the underlying stocks, which has 4 billion cash on hand and not going bankrupt any time soon without earning money.

Jokes aside “Value investing” has been dead for a long time….

Today’s investing landscape you have very few big tech corporations (ai or ai hardware related) with strong fundamental having the stock price reaching new high and PE multiples reaching new high, because they are so few and scarce, investors are willing to pay a premium.

Next you have meme stocks and crypto tokens whose strongest fundamental is their reddit community and google search trend.

They are likely to outperform traditional business with strong earnings, for outside investors. Most stocks are bought and held by Vanguard and Blackroack to serve the need for passive investing in index funds and etf. These passive funds and etfs are market cap weighted and will continue to pour more money buying the winners. “Undervalued stocks” will continue getting undervalued for a long time.

Meme stocks and cryptos by nature are “scarce assets” themselves. How many stock and coins are there with millions of social media followers? Not more than ten for sure.
 
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Bounce Back

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For long term boring investments do you all feel weird keeping it with one brokerage? I've always heard when its in stocks you don't have to really worry if the brokerage goes under because whoever buys them out or whatever the stocks are still yours but to me it feels weird when the bulk of your assets outside of your house or business are under the custody of one company.

Thoughts?
 
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Kevin88660

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For long term boring investments do you all feel weird keeping it with one brokerage? I've always heard when its in stocks you don't have to really worry if the brokerage goes under because whoever buys them out or whatever the stocks are still yours but to me it feels weird when the bulk of your assets outside of your house or business are under the custody of one company.

Thoughts?
By law your accounts are segregated and should be safe. This means your money is your money and it does not mix with the operating business cashflow of the company.

Stick to old brand names that have been in the business for decades. I don’t trust fintechs started by 20 years old regardless what features, and trading commission rebate they have.
 

Bounce Back

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By law your accounts are segregated and should be safe. This means your money is your money and it does not mix with the operating business cashflow of the company.

Stick to old brand names that have been in the business for decades. I don’t trust fintechs started by 20 years old regardless what features, and trading commission rebate they have.
Thanks - yeah I use one of the top 5 myself.
 

The Sandman

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I'm genuinely curious, do you have skin in the game? Or is this just some type of internet soap opera for you?
90% entertainment. It was amusing when it blew up last time, and I made a little on it at the time.

The memes and drama are fun, and I like the idea of the populist uprising pushing back against predatory finance.

I put a little more in just in case it launches MOASS. But nothing I can't afford to lose. I'm not a true believer.
 
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Kevin88660

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Kevin88660

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GME starts to show TA pattern of descending triangle which is conventionally bearish.

But I have to factor in that from price history most bullish players’s cost of buying is low. $25 is a decent support.

As memization of GME becomes stronger the support will be stronger.

This supports the future trend of GME trading at a tight range until a big enough bullish catalyst that has a strong enough impact on the fundamental. (Not anytime too soon unless a failed software company ceo like the next michael saylor joins the game)

My current play book will be buy at $25, sell at 30, and immediately insure myself with some nearest term expiring otm option just in case if there is a freak rally on the same day. If there isn’t and the shorts win it will push it back to 25 for my to accumulate again.
 
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Kevin88660

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Gold to the moon?

Houthis might be using modified Chinese gears to mask their countries’ origin, while U.S. defense force was maintained using $90000 contractor quoted price for a bag of metal screws.

View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=5gIzfMfOyLM&pp=ygUQJDkwMDAwIHNjcmV3IHVzYQ%3D%3D


Defense contractors business in U.S. must be super fastlane.
 
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socaldude

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Defense contractors business in U.S. must be super fastlane.

Yes it is. It could be one reason why we have so many useless and endless wars.

In the meantime the Dow hasn’t been keeping up with the Nasdaq or SP500. I think that’s why the Vix was up a bit yesterday. Ethereum and Bitcoin have diverged as well.
 

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