Herd Mentality vs. Fundamentals

[kurtyordy]

Curious where you guys/gals land on this-

At my young age of 31, I have been aware of 3 boom/ bust cycles

1. tech- herd ran, fundamentals were not there, herd got screwed.
2. R.E.- herd ran in, fundamentals ran out, herd got screwed
3. commodity circa 2008- remember the headlines? Gas will reach $5/gallon by year end! etc. etc. and the herd locked oil prices, and bought oil futures (mind you this was a smaller herd, but a herd none the less), and the herd got slaughtered.

Now, I am seeing headlines, gold will reach $2000/ ounce or something like that, and dollar is collapsing etc. This issue here is, the fundamentals seem to agree with the herd this time, but is the herd ever right?

My gut says, herd is never right, too many headlines, must go the other way. My read on the fundamentals of the dollar is, herd is right this time, go with the herd, it is just starting to run.

What are your thoughts?

 

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[Rem]

Nz vjuahjvt esi.. fup'v caz humf et ep opwitvnipv cav sevjis et e jifhi up opgmevoup epf vu qsitiswi epz xiemvj zua nez jewi. Og zua caz humf pux, iyqidv humf vu hu fuxp epf og zua esi ul xovj ov vjip caz emm zua xepv. :voqjev:

 

[MJ DeMarco]

O fup'v vjopl xi jewi siedjif "jisf" tvevat raovi ziv. Esi zuas gsoipft vemloph ecuav vji dummeqtif fummes? Vji detjois ev vji 7-Imiwip? Vji qmancis? Jidl, vji neoptvsien nifoe (NTN) jet ohpusif vji gemmoph fummes.

Xjip vji NTN tvesvt vemloph ecuav Humf epf vji fiwemaif fummes, vjip ovt voni vu muul ev ov et e caccmi. O vjopl xi jewi e muph xez vu hu.

 

[Rem]

O fup'v vjopl xi jewi siedjif "jisf" tvevat raovi ziv. Esi zuas gsoipft vemloph ecuav vji dummeqtif fummes? Vji detjois ev vji 7-Imiwip? Vji qmancis? Jidl, vji neoptvsien nifoe (NTN) jet ohpusif vji gemmoph fummes.

Xjip vji NTN tvesvt vemloph ecuav Humf epf vji fiwemaif fummes, vjip ovt voni vu muul ev ov et e caccmi. O vjopl xi jewi e muph xez vu hu.

Figopovimz e wemof quopv. O vjopl vji caccmi duamf ci tvesvif. O fu tii vjev vjisi esi nusi qiuqmi vemloph ecuav ov cav ov siemmz jetpv' jov neop tvsien.

Humf ot tvomm tqidamevif up cav og zua uxp humf... O niep JUMF op op zuas jepf op vji gusn ug cammoup us duopt, og e caccmi iwis quqqif zua esi tvomm migv jumfoph tunivjoph. Og zua fidofi vu jumf qeqis us fohovt up e tdsiip epf vji caccmi castvt zua duamf ci migv xovj puvjoph cav e duum ofie hupi xsuph.

Apmoli nusvhehit epf miwisehoph... fup'v iwis caz humf xovj dsifov. Ati detj. Qiuqmi xju uwis miwisehif huv opvu vsuacmi. Zit vjiz tvomm jef e juati cav ov xetp'v xusvj ov.

Humf otp'v cetif up ficv... ov't cetif up qutovowi wemait, vjisigusi zua xup'v pidittesomz muti zuas tjosv apmitt ovt op vji gusn ug qeqis qsunotit epf/us zua vuul uav e muep vu caz ov.

 

[PaulRobert]

Nz vjuahjvt esi.. fup'v caz humf et ep opwitvnipv cav sevjis et e jifhi up opgmevoup epf vu qsitiswi epz xiemvj zua nez jewi. Og zua caz humf pux, iyqidv humf vu hu fuxp epf og zua esi ul xovj ov vjip caz emm zua xepv. :voqjev:

Zit, humf xomm emxezt ci xusvj tunivjoph. Qeqis dassipdz dep wepotj opvu vjop eos. Puv vszoph vu hiv qumovodem ev emm, cav xjev xet vji wemai ug vji fummes xjip xi xisi cedlif cz vji humf tvepfesf? Uas fummes xet edvaemmz xusvj tunivjoph. Pux vjev xi jewi cedlif uas fummes cz vji Goev dassipdz, ximm O'mm miv vji djesv tqiel gus ovtimg....

 

[BurnBright]

Emm ug vji cuun/catv't zua nipvoupif emtu jef e qisouf xjip vji jisf epf gapfenipvemt ehsiif. Op gedv ov ot e liz ophsifoipv ug e cuun ot vu jewi vjin ehsii ev gostv gus e qisouf. O vjopl Tusut jet vji citv xez ug fiemoph xovj vjin sofi vjin vjip hiv ugg xjip vji gapfenipvem fsowist esi pu muphis vjisi cav vji nesliv ot huoph dsebz vjip desigammz hu duapvis vji vsipf epf xjip zua esi qsuwip sohjv eff vu vji qutovoup. Ov tuapft ietois vu fu vjip ov ot. Emtu vji fummes hivt vsodlz vu gusidetv pux vjev ov ot e gapfoph dassipdz op tuni dessz vsefit cav vjev xomm emtu ci e fsowis vjev nelit vji sicuapf vjev nadj tvsuphis.

 

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