Haven't seen anyone discuss this on the Forum, so here's a brief summary that doesn't nearly encapsulate the complexity (and history) of the matter... presumably you have some background knowledge in addition to this take.
Personally, grew up in Alberta, so I MAY HAVE A BIAS, but like all Canadian cities and provinces, the Alberta of the 2000s/2010s is not the same as it is today. It's clear, IMO, that Federal policies have caused massive overwhelm on infrastructure and systems that have not grown proportionally.
Out of all the Canadian provinces, AB is
- the most pro-oil
- has the third-highest oil and gas reserves in the world
- initiates oil pipeline projects and proposals, only to be shut down by other provinces
- has the lowest taxes (only a 5% mandatory federal sales tax, unlike other provinces, which add an additional 6%... varies)
- has two major cities (Edmonton, Calgary) and stunning national parks between the BC and AB border
- direct border with the U.S.A.
- no coastal geographic advantage, landlocked
- currently has a *significant enough* interest in separating from the rest of Canada, as an independent state with close ties to the U.S.A., and later possibilities of becoming a 51st state (a reach at this stage)
- currently undergoing a petition, as of March 17/2026, to set out a referendum for the rest of the Province
- If the petition reaches enough signatures (likely), the referendum proposed is "Shall Alberta cease to be a province of Canada", or something along those lines
- currently a conservative provincial government led by the (controversial..? I thought she was reasonable) Premier Danielle Smith, who has explicitly encouraged a stronger Canada that cooperates with Alberta within Canada
- from the federal election that took place 1 year prior, voted primarily Conservative and was overwhelmingly a stark contrast to the rest of the provinces
- pays Equalization payments for other provinces
- separation seems to be more popular in rural areas of the Province than in the cities (supposedly)
- It is said that if AB separates, then its neighbouring Province, Saskatchewan, is likely to follow... a tumbling of Canada in the midst of instability..?
- it is said that AB shares more cultural values with a bordering state, such as Montana, than it does with Ontario, Quebec, and the Eastern provinces
- unlikely that a separation would involve bloodshed...
IN MY OPINION, there's a solid economic case for Alberta to separate from Canada based on its Conservative values, with the backing and support of the U.S.A. as an ally (which may have its own interests to separate a currently united Canada).
I think it would be interesting to see how it plays out, as Alberta became part of Canada relatively recently in 1905. It has great potential if free trade were a bit freer, but in my opinion, it faces significant regulation, especially regarding its natural resources. It would be the first time in modern North America to have such a massive change, akin to Czechoslovakia's parting.
That said, I'm commenting much more as a skeptic observer than anything else.
Anyway, given that there could be a referendum this year, I'm curious to hear from others who have some understanding of the matter.
Personally, grew up in Alberta, so I MAY HAVE A BIAS, but like all Canadian cities and provinces, the Alberta of the 2000s/2010s is not the same as it is today. It's clear, IMO, that Federal policies have caused massive overwhelm on infrastructure and systems that have not grown proportionally.
Out of all the Canadian provinces, AB is
- the most pro-oil
- has the third-highest oil and gas reserves in the world
- initiates oil pipeline projects and proposals, only to be shut down by other provinces
- has the lowest taxes (only a 5% mandatory federal sales tax, unlike other provinces, which add an additional 6%... varies)
- has two major cities (Edmonton, Calgary) and stunning national parks between the BC and AB border
- direct border with the U.S.A.
- no coastal geographic advantage, landlocked
- currently has a *significant enough* interest in separating from the rest of Canada, as an independent state with close ties to the U.S.A., and later possibilities of becoming a 51st state (a reach at this stage)
- currently undergoing a petition, as of March 17/2026, to set out a referendum for the rest of the Province
- If the petition reaches enough signatures (likely), the referendum proposed is "Shall Alberta cease to be a province of Canada", or something along those lines
- currently a conservative provincial government led by the (controversial..? I thought she was reasonable) Premier Danielle Smith, who has explicitly encouraged a stronger Canada that cooperates with Alberta within Canada
- from the federal election that took place 1 year prior, voted primarily Conservative and was overwhelmingly a stark contrast to the rest of the provinces
- pays Equalization payments for other provinces
- separation seems to be more popular in rural areas of the Province than in the cities (supposedly)
- It is said that if AB separates, then its neighbouring Province, Saskatchewan, is likely to follow... a tumbling of Canada in the midst of instability..?
- it is said that AB shares more cultural values with a bordering state, such as Montana, than it does with Ontario, Quebec, and the Eastern provinces
- unlikely that a separation would involve bloodshed...
IN MY OPINION, there's a solid economic case for Alberta to separate from Canada based on its Conservative values, with the backing and support of the U.S.A. as an ally (which may have its own interests to separate a currently united Canada).
I think it would be interesting to see how it plays out, as Alberta became part of Canada relatively recently in 1905. It has great potential if free trade were a bit freer, but in my opinion, it faces significant regulation, especially regarding its natural resources. It would be the first time in modern North America to have such a massive change, akin to Czechoslovakia's parting.
That said, I'm commenting much more as a skeptic observer than anything else.
Anyway, given that there could be a referendum this year, I'm curious to hear from others who have some understanding of the matter.
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