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Dear Fastlaners,
Just got back from a two-week family trip to Hawaii — my wife, our son, and me, splitting time between Honolulu and the Big Island. First time back in the States in six years for us, and honestly? The thing that stuck with me wasn't the beaches. It was the stores.
Everywhere we went — Walmart, Costco, on both islands — the supplement aisles were unreal. Entire walls of protein powder. Creatine in gummies, in stick packs, in every flavor. RTD shakes stacked to the ceiling. And people weren't just browsing — carts loaded with the stuff. Teenagers, moms, guys my age, everyone. At some point my wife caught me staring at the shelves and goes, "You're working again, aren't you."
She wasn't wrong. For those who missed my intro thread: I run Tao Trade Partner (taotradepartner.com), a sourcing agency connecting US founders with vetted factories in China — mostly hardware and Kickstarter-type products so far. Between what I saw in those aisles and two existing clients asking about adding consumables to their hardware brands (think smart bottle companies selling electrolyte powder), I went full rabbit-hole on the US sports nutrition market when I got home.
Here's what I found, in plain English:
The demand is stupid-big and still growing
That was my naive assumption going in. Wrong direction. The US is the world's biggest whey exporter; China is the biggest importer. And whey is in a historic shortage — WPC80 hit ~$13/lb this spring (+250% YoY), WPI is near $12.3/lb, basically double two years ago, and US producers are pre-sold deep into 2026.But here's why that's actually interesting: expensive whey is forcing brands to reformulate — collagen peptides, plant proteins, blends. David's bar uses a 4-protein blend just to avoid depending on one source. Reformulation means brands re-opening their supplier lists. That's the door.
Where China actually wins: the small-molecule stuff
US anti-dumping + countervailing duties on Chinese pea protein now run 127%–626% depending on the producer. That's not a tariff, that's an embargo with extra steps. The EU piled on with 67% this month. The biggest Chinese producer had to build a whole factory in Thailand just to survive. Moral of the story: never bet everything on one category or one country. Diversify or die.
The trust problem = the actual opportunity
Consumer Reports (Oct 2025) tested 23 popular protein powders: 70% had concerning heavy metal levels. 13 of the worst 17 were plant-based — the worst was 15.7x the lead limit. Certs like NSF Certified for Sport and Informed Sport have gone from "nice bonus" to "you don't get on the shelf without it."Flip that around: any small US brand can find Chinese ingredients on Alibaba in five minutes. What they can't do is trust them. The guy who shows up with batch-level lab testing, third-party verification, and FDA-ready paperwork is suddenly the rarest person in the room. From a CENTS angle I like it: real need, real entry barriers (compliance + trust), and it scales.
What I'm doing about it
I'm expanding Tao Trade Partner into ingredient sourcing for US supplement brands and co-packers — starting with the exempt categories (creatine, amino acids, vitamins, CoQ10), wrapped in factory audits, third-party batch testing, and FSVP documentation support. Phase two: gummy and stick-pack manufacturing, where China has a genuine edge (the world's biggest gummy CDMO is Chinese and runs ~48% gross margin on that line). My sweet spot: brands doing ~$1M–$20M without a supply chain team — which I'm guessing describes a few of you.
Who I'd love to hear from
Tao
taotradepartner.com
Just got back from a two-week family trip to Hawaii — my wife, our son, and me, splitting time between Honolulu and the Big Island. First time back in the States in six years for us, and honestly? The thing that stuck with me wasn't the beaches. It was the stores.
Everywhere we went — Walmart, Costco, on both islands — the supplement aisles were unreal. Entire walls of protein powder. Creatine in gummies, in stick packs, in every flavor. RTD shakes stacked to the ceiling. And people weren't just browsing — carts loaded with the stuff. Teenagers, moms, guys my age, everyone. At some point my wife caught me staring at the shelves and goes, "You're working again, aren't you."
She wasn't wrong. For those who missed my intro thread: I run Tao Trade Partner (taotradepartner.com), a sourcing agency connecting US founders with vetted factories in China — mostly hardware and Kickstarter-type products so far. Between what I saw in those aisles and two existing clients asking about adding consumables to their hardware brands (think smart bottle companies selling electrolyte powder), I went full rabbit-hole on the US sports nutrition market when I got home.
Here's what I found, in plain English:
The demand is stupid-big and still growing
- US sports nutrition: ~$18.3B in 2025, heading to ~$27.8B by 2031. Protein is 83% of it.
- The whole US supplement market is ~$69B, and sports nutrition is its fastest-growing piece (+8.4%). 75% of American adults take supplements, median spend ~$50/month. This isn't a niche anymore — it's basically groceries.
- The brand exits are nuts: GHOST (founded 2016) sold 60% to Keurig Dr Pepper for $990M. Alani Nu (2018) got bought by Celsius for $1.8B. David — founded in 2023, that's not a typo — hit a ~$100M run rate in its first year and raised at a $725M valuation. New brands can still win big, fast.
- Two tailwinds I didn't expect: GLP-1 drugs (12% of US adults are on them, and they need protein to keep muscle while the weight drops — a whole "GLP-1 companion nutrition" category is being born), and creatine going mainstream. It's not just for gym bros anymore — women, 35+, general health, gummies everywhere. Which explains half of what I saw on those shelves.
That was my naive assumption going in. Wrong direction. The US is the world's biggest whey exporter; China is the biggest importer. And whey is in a historic shortage — WPC80 hit ~$13/lb this spring (+250% YoY), WPI is near $12.3/lb, basically double two years ago, and US producers are pre-sold deep into 2026.But here's why that's actually interesting: expensive whey is forcing brands to reformulate — collagen peptides, plant proteins, blends. David's bar uses a 4-protein blend just to avoid depending on one source. Reformulation means brands re-opening their supplier lists. That's the door.
Where China actually wins: the small-molecule stuff
- Creatine: except for one German company (AlzChem, the Creapure people), production is basically all in China.
- Taurine: 90%+ of world capacity. Caffeine: China is the biggest synthetic producer — one company there supplies Pepsi, Coke AND Red Bull.
- Vitamins, CoQ10, amino acids: dominant global share.And the kicker: most of these sit on the US "Annex II" tariff exemption list. Creatine, vitamins, minerals, amino acids, CoQ10, stevia — exempt from the reciprocal tariffs. In 2026, that's about as close to a golden corridor as trade gets.
US anti-dumping + countervailing duties on Chinese pea protein now run 127%–626% depending on the producer. That's not a tariff, that's an embargo with extra steps. The EU piled on with 67% this month. The biggest Chinese producer had to build a whole factory in Thailand just to survive. Moral of the story: never bet everything on one category or one country. Diversify or die.
The trust problem = the actual opportunity
Consumer Reports (Oct 2025) tested 23 popular protein powders: 70% had concerning heavy metal levels. 13 of the worst 17 were plant-based — the worst was 15.7x the lead limit. Certs like NSF Certified for Sport and Informed Sport have gone from "nice bonus" to "you don't get on the shelf without it."Flip that around: any small US brand can find Chinese ingredients on Alibaba in five minutes. What they can't do is trust them. The guy who shows up with batch-level lab testing, third-party verification, and FDA-ready paperwork is suddenly the rarest person in the room. From a CENTS angle I like it: real need, real entry barriers (compliance + trust), and it scales.
What I'm doing about it
I'm expanding Tao Trade Partner into ingredient sourcing for US supplement brands and co-packers — starting with the exempt categories (creatine, amino acids, vitamins, CoQ10), wrapped in factory audits, third-party batch testing, and FSVP documentation support. Phase two: gummy and stick-pack manufacturing, where China has a genuine edge (the world's biggest gummy CDMO is Chinese and runs ~48% gross margin on that line). My sweet spot: brands doing ~$1M–$20M without a supply chain team — which I'm guessing describes a few of you.
Who I'd love to hear from
- Supplement / functional food founders — how are you dealing with whey prices and sourcing right now?
- Anyone importing from China — what's your worst QC or customs story?
- Co-packers / contract manufacturers.
- Anyone heading to SupplySide West in Vegas this October — I'll be there, coffee's on me.
Tao
taotradepartner.com
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