There’s a .00006% Chance of Building a Billion Dollar Company: How This Man Did It

[road_runner]

I have always known the money part is true, but his numbers do mean something to me.

Just look at the numbers, he says: “There’s a 0.00006% chance of building a company that will grow to be worth more than a billion dollars. Even if you do raise money and sell a company or take it public, your median time to doing that is probably 49 months. Assuming there are three founders, your median expected payoff would be $300,000 each — that’s the equivalent of $73,000 a year. And the probability of making nothing is 67%. So if your motivation for doing a startup is financial reward, you’re better off going to Google, a hedge fund, choosing a career with stable income potential.”


http://firstround.com/article/There...lar-Company-How-This-Man-Did-It#ixzz2qGfC0Qbo

 

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[RogueInnovation]

Lol, nah man, thats just defeatist talk twisting half truths into an excuse

Like davedev says "if you wanna be poor any excuse will do"

I think a better take away is that there are always nuances we overlook, and we simplify things too much. You really have to understand how the biz is run, its results, and if it meets its mission to understand its true value, which may very well exceed billions.

Gotta remember you can sell these companies and walk away with cash if you want.

Also, the odds are not evenly distributed, 100 000 failures doesn't provide any real resistance to companies built for success.

 

[Emanuel]

If you're doing it wrong, there's a 0% of building a billion dollar company.

If you're doing it right, it's much more higher than the 0.00006% he talks about.

I don't think you should even use the word "chance" when it comes to things like this. If you're in full control of your business, chance has very little to do with how well you'll do.

 

[CarrieW]

"chance" is a lot like "risk" and "luck"

the more you know the more you can control. the more you can control the chances become less risky and the luckier you seem

 

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[road_runner]

I was just trying to say that as i am more interested in the money part i can't easily take a risk and go start a business.
I am not interested in being an entrepreneur just for the sake of it,

 

[CarrieW]

I was just trying to say that as i am more interested in the money part i can't easily take a risk and go start a business.
I am not interested in being an entrepreneur just for the sake of it,

I live paycheck to about halfway to my hubs next paycheck.

there is no reward without risk. and it is never easy... when I needed to put out every available dime I had to pay for patent applications and CAD designs (even had to skimp at the grocery store those 2 wks) it hurt. it wasn't easy. was it worth it. HELL YEAH. hoping that I will license the idea and the money will be well spent. but it could have just easily been wasted. point is you either want it or you don't.

decide which.

 

[DaRK9]

I was just trying to say that as i am more interested in the money part i can't easily take a risk and go start a business.
I am not interested in being an entrepreneur just for the sake of it,

If you are going to let one shoddy article ruin this for you, you already don't have the correct mindset.

.00006 is the percent of people who did it. Not the odds. You make your own odds due diligence and tenacity.

 

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[RogueInnovation]

I was just trying to say that as i am more interested in the money part i can't easily take a risk and go start a business.
I am not interested in being an entrepreneur just for the sake of it,

I'm not at all interested in being an entreprenuer, never have been, I'm a pragmatic dude that wants results.
Results for me equals food
Food does not cost a billion dollars

What it costs is
a) cashflow management
b) the ability to block out external influences and force a job to get done within a few days
c) facing your futility fears

Excuses don't help that fear, actually standing behind who you are, and why you exist does.
But at this same time you are standing up for yourself, make sure you have an income stream you can leverage, like selling some services, stuff, freelancing, etc, so survival costs get met like a boss.

You can't change the world to get food on that table, just gotta be brave enough to get the job done in the first few days of the week/month


Don't chase billions to appear so badass that stuff magically appears, be pragmatic in understanding, you can get it done and don't need to waste time worrying about billionaires

I don't care about billionaires or millions. I have no plan for it.
I just wanna create a great business that works for me, so that I have a vehicle to go do stuff with. I don't wanna freelance etc forever. I just wanna rely off my own builds.

I wanna be effortlessly competent, and live my life by solving the problems, rather than being shot down.


So yeah, I don't wannabe an entreprenuer either, but I don't give a care about billions because it has no relevance to what I need.
You need to shift from focusing on what others do negatively, to focusing on what you can do positively.
Its sucky bitter work, but excuses are a copout and stop stuff getting done.

You gotta be positive about things, or this stuff is gonna eat you alive from the inside.
There is no mysterious force making people successful, you just gotta earn it by getting yourself right and moving on what works (fundamentals etc).

Cheap solutions lead to pathetic enthusiasm, and pathetic enthusiasm leads to feeling terribly unfulfilled by money, and being unfulfilled leads to money being like a bladder where you piss everything away.

You gotta find what makes you give a damn. Then once you feel less terrible, money stays in your pocket better, and making the rounds for your needs gets real light.

Don't make this stuff into a deathmarch if you can help it.
Once you knock down subsistancy and mindset, everything is pretty decent pain wise.
Get to profit, forget billionaires.

 

[Vick]

I actually enjoyed the article. he basically saying the same shit we all hear all the time anyway. build something people want, innovate, learn, etc.

that 0.0006% seems right to me. there are 7,000,000,000 billion people on the planet. and 1,645 of them are billionaires. http://www.forbes.com/billionaires/

now.

becoming a millionaire. im sure that % is much much higher. and much much much easier to attain.

you can live quite well with 5 -10 million. protecting your money wisely of course.

at least better then most people anyway.

 

[road_runner]

Well freelancing kind of works for me now. Remote work, flexible hours, lots of free time , i work like 4-5 hours day max.
Business will require many more hours that's for sure. I am starting to doubt if i am set for this at all

 

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[Deleted14762]

I actually enjoyed the article. he basically saying the same shit we all hear all the time anyway. build something people want, innovate, learn, etc.

that 0.0006% seems right to me. there are 7,000,000,000 billion people on the planet. and 1,645 of them are billionaires. http://www.forbes.com/billionaires/

now.

becoming a millionaire. im sure that % is much much higher. and much much much easier to attain.

you can live quite well with 5 -10 million. protecting your money wisely of course.

at least better then most people anyway.

Over 3 billion people live on less than $2.5/day. Just doubled the chances.
Deduct the number of people who waste time watching TV etc. from that and you more than double the new number.
Take away from that the kids and the old/really sick, probably doubled that again.
Finally, remove the slowlaners, the protesters, the hippies, the lazy, the completely illiterate and a bunch of others who lack the characteristics you and I and the rest of this forum have, and your chances more than quintuple.
Now out of those still remaining, how many of them have the knowledge and the willingness to work their asses off? That's who you're really pitted against.
Statistics are a bitch, don't let unverified information discourage you.

 

[MyronGainz]

Beware of reasoning based on statistical data.

There are always stats to prove a point, and stats to disprove the same point.

 

[parkerscott]

A billion dollar acquisition only nets 300k lololololololololol..................................lolololololol

Billion with a B!!! Three hundred thousand take home. Yeah I dont think so. Numbers are way off. Not even going to read the article.

 

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[parkerscott]

A billion dollar acquisition only nets 300k lololololololololol..................................lolololololol

Billion with a B!!! Three hundred thousand take home. Yeah I dont think so. Numbers are way off. Not even going to read the article.

edit: theres a .00006 % chance that he owned less than .001 of his startup.

 

[MisterBHZ]

I actually enjoyed the article. he basically saying the same shit we all hear all the time anyway. build something people want, innovate, learn, etc.

that 0.0006% seems right to me. there are 7,000,000,000 billion people on the planet. and 1,645 of them are billionaires. http://www.forbes.com/billionaires/

now.

becoming a millionaire. im sure that % is much much higher. and much much much easier to attain.

you can live quite well with 5 -10 million. protecting your money wisely of course.

at least better then most people anyway.

I agree with all of that.

 

[Vick]

Over 3 billion people live on less than $2.5/day. Just doubled the chances.
Deduct the number of people who waste time watching TV etc. from that and you more than double the new number.
Take away from that the kids and the old/really sick, probably doubled that again.
Finally, remove the slowlaners, the protesters, the hippies, the lazy, the completely illiterate and a bunch of others who lack the characteristics you and I and the rest of this forum have, and your chances more than quintuple.
Now out of those still remaining, how many of them have the knowledge and the willingness to work their asses off? That's who you're really pitted against.
Statistics are a bitch, don't let unverified information discourage you.

most billionaires come from nothing and very poor backgrounds and horrible country's. not all of them are from the US

anyone in the world has the potential to become super successful.

granted its much harder for some, but that just means they have to work harder.

at the end of the day. there are still 7,000,000,000 people on this planet and only 1,645 of them are billionaires.

 

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[Deleted14762]

most billionaires come from nothing and very poor backgrounds and horrible country's. not all of them are from the US

anyone in the world has the potential to become super successful.

granted its much harder for some, but that just means they have to work harder.

at the end of the day. there are still 7,000,000,000 people on this planet and only 1,645 of them are billionaires.

People with Downs and similar illnesses have exactly 0% chance to become 10-figures successful. Show me one billionaire who worked in a Chinese sweatshop where he was malnourished as a kid, or kidnapped by guys like Kony and forced to be a child soldier, or sexually abused by meth head redneck parents without access to any sort of opportunity. Everyone who hasn't been born and raised in circumstances like these COULD use an opportunity if it presented itself, but illiterate people who not only don't have an understanding of the system, but don't have an opportunity to understand it, no access to books or internet, can not get ahead. Laziness begets laziness in 99% of the cases, and no matter how much motivational material couch potatoes read only a small minority will take action and do something in order to change their lives. By reading MJ's book, registering on this forum, and exchanging ideas with others you're taking action, which is something 99% of the people won't care to do, which puts you miles ahead of them. Even if they decide one day to take action like you did, it'll be months or years or even decades from now and you will have a huge advantage because you started that early. Working harder is awesome, but tell that to an inhumane-wage slave kid in a sweatshop and he will make twice more T-shirts for the same wage, because that's what "hard work" means to him. Potential remains, most of the time, undeveloped.

 

[CarrieW]

https://www.thefastlaneforum.com/co...-syndrome-runs-friendliest-eatery-ever.49780/

I agree with very little in your post.

someone with downs syndrome or autism or any other "defect" that makes them unperfect may make things harder for them. but nothing is impossible.

don't be so quick to write people off. https://www.google.com/#q=success stories from escaping horrible situations example&spell=1

https://www.google.com/#q=kony+escapees+ who knows what those fortunate enough to escape situations like that will accomplish in their lives...

 

[davedev]

This is why I try not to compare myself to people's situations around the world.

I haven't a F*cking clue about what they have to do just to survive.

All I know is that if you pluck any one of those guys and place them into my shoes, into my apartment, with it's full fridge, air conditioned comfortable climate and fresh running water, they'll have visions of heaven.

It's also IMO why so many of us get lulled to sleep.

Very easy to lose perspective on what life really is for billions of people.

It's a bit of a twist to the Fastlane IMO.

Most of us are born with the equivalent of 'Wagyu Kobe Beef' in our refrigerator, but with the wrong mindset, you just take that prime cut of beef, boil it, and feed it to the dog.

Total waste of potential.

 

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[Deleted14762]

https://www.thefastlaneforum.com/co...-syndrome-runs-friendliest-eatery-ever.49780/

I agree with very little in your post.

someone with downs syndrome or autism or any other "defect" that makes them unperfect may make things harder for them. but nothing is impossible.

don't be so quick to write people off. https://www.google.com/#q=success stories from escaping horrible situations example&spell=1

https://www.google.com/#q=kony escapees+ who knows what those fortunate enough to escape situations like that will accomplish in their lives...

I'm talking about building a $1,000,000,000 company. Making a million or 10 is possible for anyone with enough work, but breaking that limit is IMPOSSIBLE for people who are as unfortunate as the examples in my post. No escapee will overcome the extreme trauma the time at the concentration camps has instilled in their memory, and they most certainly won't have the connections needed to accomplish the aforementioned. They have struggled to escape for so long and most of the opportunities available to those who were fortunate enough to be born in favorable conditions. They can, of course, write about their experience and tell their story to various movie directors, but while that could make millions of dollars, it can't make one a thousand times over. That requires heavy networking, even if you're born into a mega-rich family and autists are much less likely than heavily connected extroverts to successfully pitch a plan to a potential backer. I am talking about CHANCES and the ratio of those of people born into first-world countries to those of people born with severe impairments and into extremely dire circumstances. Most of those who manage to escape the horrors they live through because of psychopaths like Kony end up living in some other third-world country without an understanding of how the markets work and no real perspective, and I'm pretty sure none of them set out to build an empire and retire in Monaco while driving Paganis and Astons. These people make it out of the hell they were in, but they are content with clean water after that and don't have dreams of avarice like some people of the flourishing first world countries do.

 

[CarrieW]

I agree with you to a point. I will only say its extremely unlikely... NOTHING IS IMPOSSIBLE. semantics really.

its the same of I cant vrs how can I.

just because it hasn't been done yet doesn't mean it will never happen. while you are right in a lot of what you said I refuse to agree that it is not in the realm of possibility that theres another bill gates something trying to blossom out of something horrific.

EVERYTHING IS POSSIBLE!

 

[Deleted14762]

I agree with you to a point. I will only say its extremely unlikely... NOTHING IS IMPOSSIBLE. semantics really.

its the same of I cant vrs how can I.

just because it hasn't been done yet doesn't mean it will never happen. while you are right in a lot of what you said I refuse to agree that it is not in the realm of possibility that theres another bill gates something trying to blossom out of something horrific.

EVERYTHING IS POSSIBLE!

Of course, everything is statistically possible, many people have defied the odds multiple times and continue to do so. Bill Gates had created an enormous market and he satisfied it, something very few people can do because those opportunities come once or twice in a century. And Richard Branson was dyslexic, yet he made the Virgin group number one in many industries. In the end, it's all about resourcefulness and hard work, albeit luck is the greatest factor when we're talking about that kind of money, anyone can do it if "the stars are aligned" in his favor (although stars never align if they aren't grinding their butts off haha).

 

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[Formless]

Avoid things that cause doubt in your head.

The information you might gain is usually not worth it with rare exceptions (like reading TMF and finding out that saving 10% of your $350 per week is not going to buy you freedom and knowing you've allowed yourself to be bullshitted all your life)

It's why I no longer ask for second opinions on most matters.

Bring on the 'YES' men! And the 'YES' articles and books.

 

[RogueInnovation]

Business will require many more hours that's for sure. I am starting to doubt if i am set for this at all

I hated getting into entreprenuership more than I've seen anyone hate it. I mean, I was not happy.
You know what happened next?
N o t h i n g . . .

I started trying to do SOMETHING, and for years it was the most pointless "something" ever. I actually ended up throwing most BS I came up with out.
I tried so desperately to make nothing into something, that I started acting stupid, saying stupid things and going backwards, and forgetting how to be a rational human being.

I got afraid that people had pulled me into entreprenuerialism to serve their fattening egos, and they'd poke/stoke me, for validation, but never to help me actually succeed and compete. Was afraid I was alone, and meeting other peoples saddistic need for attention and adulation... And that to get good at business I'd have to become STUPID, and give up some part of me, and my life for it, that was a loss to give up.

It made me annoyed.

I started writing a business plan, that became a goliath 500+ pages, within the next year.
And out of that foggy madness, SOME of it holds water.
Then, I stopped running from my fears of looking like a poor hobo gonna be, and started knocking down doors when problems came up. Stopped giving a damn about the blame and shame that gets shoved on us as we verge on failure.

I learnt to just endure the pain, and then my body got used to it, and it couldn't hurt me anymore. So I smirked, got back up, made some money regularly and then learnt some GOOD things to help boost my decent plans I created.

...
My point is, there is no victorious change in my opinion of entreprenuership through the story.
It was humiliating, it was totally murky, and barely anything I did, did anything.

BUT, I'm here NOW, able to say the following:

You don't need to like it. It won't really change you a lot. But when you finally beat your fear.
You'll nod.


Don't let that crazy stuff mess with your head, keep slinging back, keep getting up, keep hanging in. Because if I hated it that much, and got through to profit, and didn't change into a bloodsucking idiot, so can you.

Its not billions, but who cares, GET motivated to do what YOU can do. Even with how you feel about things.
No one is really cut out to be an entreprenuer in my opinion, we become that automatically during the journey, as we just don't give up on ourselves.


It is ok to hate it, or think its dumb, but, don't stay there forever.
Just cuz you think biz is kinda lame, it doesn't mean you can't make it.
WE ALL HATE IT in the long and frustrating years before we MAKE IT.

I know you hunt for reasons why this stuff is dumb and won't work.
But it WILL work, even if YOU have to make it work (and you will).


Don't think you are frustrated alone. You aren't.
Keep at it man, it'll mug you and steal from you, and slap you, but whatever.
That stuff can't really stop you.