Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

[MJ DeMarco]

Its gone mainstream, the end is near.

While I hold both ETH and BTC, I unfortunately have to agree with you because I look at myself. My knowledge is still at a 3 (out of 10) so I'm definitely in the "dumb money" category. And as I preached in TMF , when dumb money shows up, it's the end of the road.

The other part of me sees the potential in the decentralization aspects, plus added resistance to big banks/corporations/gubbermint. So I'm making my bets at the latter beating the former.

 

[MidwestLandlord]

A 70 year old woman I know, who can barely work her email, asked me yesterday if I knew anything about "this bitcoin thingy"

She's fairly wealthy and wants to buy some now.

Dumb money is definitely here.

 

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[biophase]

This is me buying crypto...

 

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[Timmy C]

 

[James Fake]

One more thing to add in.

I am looking 3-5 years down the road which is honestly kind of why I fell out of interest with what was/is going on crypto and the crypto market right now. (aka when super shitty coins start getting shilled by everyone and I can't even play golf with my non-business buds without getting shilled, then the crypto world is..... trash and needs reset becomes uninteresting in the present form.)

With that said... my focus is on:

ETH 2.0 versus Other Blockchain Platforms That Can Replace ETH.

ETH like Bitcoin did in 2017 is reaching the max of it's tech, it becomes inefficient and the better will always replace it. Unlike Bitcoin with a finite structure, ETH can be modified to adapt and to fix the scalability issues it is now facing since it reached this certain level of mass adoption, but if it doesn't solve these scalability issues in 2.0 (and/or gets surpassed by the development from alternatives), ETH will die as well. Long term.

So.... why am I looking at that focus? Because the most gains in the following bullrun will come from being able to identify which alternatives to ETH pose the greatest potential and buying a shitload while they are pennies on the dollar in 2024-2025 when crypto becomes boring and completely forgotten (aka 2019).

Of course, I also think that ETH (if it can do a decent job at fixing it's scalability issues of today) will sky rocket in the next bullrun ($20,000 lol) and I will own some of ETH in due time, but that 10-20-30x or whatever size gains when ETH eventually hits bottom of crypto winter will be nothing compared to the 2000x+ gains buying the $.01 costing coin that will have risen slowly to a few bucks by the time it's labeled the "ETH Killer" in a CNBC article mid-way in the middle of the 2027 (or whatever) bull run. (and then who knows what price before it peaks out).

Essentially; I'm saying.... if you play your cards right, you can make a F*ckin BILLION Dollars this decade lol.

 

[MJ DeMarco]

Just logged into my crypto account for the first time in months ... it is down 71% from the high. This represents the worst investment I ever made in my half-century existence on the planet. And at its high (assuming the good fortune that I had the knowledge to sell at the high) it would NOT have represented my best investment in my life, not even likely in the top 5.

That duality says all I need to know.

For me, crypto assets on the retail side (not as an entrepreneur) merely represents an insurance policy. In fact, they act more like long-term options (leaps) on fiat currency, like buying puts.

EDIT: Please review my note below, the above is a misinterpretation.

 

[Coalission]

30 years ago, The Economist magazine predicted a collapse and a world currency, on the cover you can see what year is on the coin.

The Economist is owned by the Rothschilds...maybe the conspiracy theories are true.

Also the "10" could be like 1s and 0s, which is computer code, which could mean computer generated currency, or cryptocurrency.

 

[Coalission]

 

[Bekit]

So if every company buys a bunch of bitcoin.
Do you think maybe, just MAYBE. All of their employees will get paid in Bitcoin as well in time?
Nah, no way, probably nothing.

I got paid in bitcoin for the first time last month (for freelance copywriting). I'm about to get a second payment in BTC next week. It felt really good.

The client was in another country and mentioned that it was an expensive hassle to wire funds. I said, "I mean, you could pay me in bitcoin if you want."

Their eyes lit up. "Really?"

"Absolutely, here's my address."

So amazing.

 

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[Fox]

At the time friend number one gave me a call. This was right at the start of the pandemic - few weeks in.

He had done quite a bit of research and had a good feeling it would pop. He has studied up on similar things in the past and felt it was something people would back as they print money and hedge against inflation.

He called it 100% and was right in his prediction.

As for value etc its been debated for many pages on here. I got nothing to add there - its just a post on two friends.

Just one more post on this.

This guy is a hard working fella with a decent separate online biz.
At the time he put in all he could afford to lose on this one thing.

Bitcoin aside it has been interesting to watch how a small fortune can me made in one move.
It has thought me the importance of being ready to go when life opens an opportunity.

Keep in mind this was a year back when fear was peak and the market was tanked. He called his shot and backed himself 100% - it has gotten me thinking a lot about how to prepare for similar moments that will come in the future.

If you aren't stacking when times are good you aren't ready to move when times are bad.
I had a rainy day fund of course but I wasn't ready to roll big like this guy - so fair play to him.

Again not debating crypto but more the idea of being ready for when you spot a large potential opportunity.

 

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[Fox]

I had to send my accountant my Crypto holdings today.

They are an old school Irish style operation (but very good at what they do).

When listing the coins and amounts it felt like "...I got 80 magic red beans, and 14 silver mystical coins, and oh 2,300 of these special blue tokens..." haha.

 

[Ing]

Sorry! Its my foult.
I bought an ETH yesterday for fun.
And everything ALLWAYS dips after me buying.

 

[James Fake]

Hmm.... Going to try to condense lots of thoughts into digestible stuff.

I'm short term Bullish: Expecting a bounce due in the coming weeks as its quite oversold.

I'm mid-term (next 2 - 24 months) Bearish: I'm expecting yet another lower high when the bounce tops out and then sells off and forms another lower high.

Long Term: I am on the fence on Bitcoin, and ultra super bullish on BLOCKCHAIN. (Notice I did not say crypto-currency lol.) I am ultra bull'ish on the platforms and tech that will be brought upon in the coming 5-10 years by Blockchain and of course, coins associated with the varying tech will print out huge gains.

On the fence with Bitcoin long-term? Yeah... If I imagine myself as an Alien looking down on earth from 200,000 ft...

Why waste so much energy running something that will only get more wasteful when you can get the same exact result/utility (if not better) from many many different alternatives that is a way smaller fraction of waste?

(imagine if what we are seeing now is Napster and Limewire... and relying on dial up tech was the thing holding all of this back. Are you tired of Bitcoin being the ruler of all Alts? If Bitcoin can't sustain itself and therefore it's price falls, is that a fair representation of some life changing breakthrough tech, app, etc. that xxxx coin/company just did? When broadband tech got better and better and more available, cheaper.... eventually, you let go of that controlling 'Gate Keeper'.. I think this disconnection of Bitcoin being the gate keeper will eventually unfold... eventually lol)

Ironically; the reason why Homo Sapiens have advanced as a dominant being is because we solve the very same question above, we continually strive to create better, faster, more efficient in almost every aspect of life: tech, cars, energy, food, entertainment, phones, etc.. (hell, even our children, we always want our children to become better versions of ourselves).

This isn't 2015 or 2017 Bitcoin anymore; I believe we are approaching a crossroads where The "Store of Value" will begin to belong to The Asset That Indeed Has The Most Value Because It Gives The Most Value because..... blockchain is a functioning tech, not some pretty cosmetic stone or finite earth element, it has utility like a wifi router. (dun dunnn... Is this me calling for the great flippening to happen in the next or after next bull run?). I also believe that Bitcoin from this bull run will in hindsight prove one thing, that Bitcoin should not be used as a store of value like Gold nor an inflation hedge <there I said it @Kak lol>

(I'm a bit short on time, but I will eventually come and write much more about what was said above sooner than later. Probably in 2024 when crypto is boring and forgotten again and no one gives this thread any attention but 5 people lol *achem* 2019)

Some market Fundamentals on my mid-term (2 - 24 month) Bearish case:

1. The Fed will eventually ease back on QE. They will also eventually raise interest rates. Will it be by end of 2021, or in 2022? Don't know.. but it's an inevitable event to happen as we're clearly in the beginning of the Economic Expansion stage when looking at the Business Cycle chart. Smart money will continue to pull profit by profit as we approach closer and closer to this event; esp as the big guys have an even more incentive to beat the date of an incoming capital gains hike.

2. Retail Oprah "And you get money! and you get money!" money is fading out. Aka Stimulus. Aka Unemployment money. Aka PPP, EIDL, etc. etc. Imo, the growth of the stock market will start to return to "normal" growth rates vs. the steep trajectory of upness from this past year's V bounce.

3. Inflation. It was cool to talk about inflation when very few were talking about inflation. Like... ya know... months ago in the fall and winter last year (*achem* when Bitcoin was "cheap" and didn't blow up the ATH). Now.. EVERYONE is talking about inflation including the grocery store clerk's grandma. Ironically and usually for whatever reason, the masses end up wrong. (I do not know why this is a phenomenon). This is why I believe this spike in Inflation we are seeing is temporary and is related to mostly Supply Chain issues, and the people betting that Bitcoin is "Inflation Hedge" will see the bear winter. Demand has risen for stuff, yes, a little bit, but not nearly as much as Supply being constrained from a temporary pandemic: production, manufacturing, and transporting on a global scale. I think in most industries, if you really dig and dig, you'll see that Supply is the ultimate root issue.

I believe "Inflation" drove this event of Bitcoin's bull run, and now that everybody believes "Inflation will only get worse" when it won't (of course there will always be the slow steady increase inflation but not Spikes or Hyperinflation as everyone talks about with their buzzwords on Tik Tok) is going to drive it back down because once the laggards who bought in late realize that Inflation is actually going back down when Supply Chain issues resolve in the coming 3-8 months, it will be too late.

In short, Buy at the absolute lowest level of fear of inflation, and Sell at the peak of fear of Inflation. And... guess where we were or currently at?

Guess what's on everybody's mind now as June approaches? CPI? Who even knew what a Consumer Price Index was before all this and knew what branch of govt. even released these reports.

Eh.. I'm prob forgetting a bit but getting too long and my fingers hurt so I'll be back lol

 

[ZCP]

 

[MoneyDoc]

What I fail to understand is why people without disposable money are treating crypto like a business? If you listened to the pumpers advice just a month ago or even weeks ago to "buy the dips!", you're in serious trouble right now. It just boggles my mind why those holding coins are rationalizing everything. This is VERY dangerous from an investment point of view.

At this moment in time, crypto is PURE speculation. I'm not talking about the technology, I'm talking about the coins. This is not a business, this is not an investment, this is not an asset. If you have $500k doing nothing in the bank, throw it at crypto if you want. But if you're working a 9-5 making $80k/year and think crypto is going to make you rich, you're going to be in for a bumpy ride. BTC is down almost 50% in weeks. 50%! Again, the pumpers are rationalizing this with "corrections are healthy". Lmao. This line of reasoning is hilarious.

Yes, prices can jump back to ATH next week, but you also have to think about the other side. I know it hurts to have your $300k cut down to $80k in a week. Obviously you're going to try to rationalize everything in hopes it will go back up. This is human nature. But this is why you have to remove emotions, and think holistically.

 

[GPM]

How f*cking ridiculous is it that we've started burning absolute heaps of energy to produce fake internet money?

I fail to see how crypto is advancing society rather than throwing us back to the stone age of trade.

Lol x100,000,000

Are you serious? You think USD or the Euro or something is less fake? They literally print as much of that as they feel like.

You want us to evolve into using a technologically better energy source? It's not gonna happen by using less energy I will tell you that right now. If no one uses energy there is no need to find something other than burning oil and gas and coal. Want us to figure out clean fusion or some crazy space solar setup that beams the energy down to earth? We need to start using a crap ton of energy so that evolving becomes a necessity and financially viable.

Or better yet, let's all go back to horse drawn carriages and burning whale oil for Lighting. Whales are a renewable resource, they keep being born, so we should be able to keep slaughtering them for oil. The ultimate in green energy, whale oil and horse drawn carriage.

 

[Antifragile]

 

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[biophase]

Yes, may start DCAing in soon.

As a casual crypto guy, I’ve lost faith in it. I think that many people have lost confidence in crypto and will not be jumping back in to buy more until it shows it can stabilize itself.

Normally with a stock, if it drops and drops but I still have confidence in the company I would buy the dips or DCA.

So I ask myself, what price would BTC have to be for me to get back in? My answer is whatever price it can stick to for at least 6-12 months. It just feels like it’s slowly dropping each week and there’s no bottom in sight. Same with ETH.

Disclaimer, I had about 1% net worth in Crytpo. Now about .4% LOL. I was trying to get to about 5% by DCA.

 

[Antifragile]

You mean how we all perfectly timed the top, like that?

I’m the master of timing the buy at the top! Yes, I am.

 

[James Fake]

I ask because I can't stop thinking about jumping in as a trader full time, but I also want to figure how to invest in alt-coins.

Do not do this. Please.

Go 50/25/25 Btc/Eth/Ltc.. secure it in a wallet and then work on building a Fastlane business.

 

[Tom.V]

So much inefficiency in this market. It's literally abundant at every turn. You have huge differences between different exchanges for the same coins (for example LTC on Poloniex hit low $80's last night, while GDAX only hit $95.01)

In relation to this piece, just put my money where my mouth was. LTC spiked, noticed huge price discrepancies between GDAX and Poloniex and Binance (GDAX was sitting around $170 when POLO was around $140, same for Binance). Bought about $8k worth of LTC at $142-$145, immediately transferred to GDAX, and sold both lots @ $175-$180 ranges. Easy $1,500 profit in 30 minutes with pure arbitrage.

 

[Coalission]

but when Bitcoin begins to establish itself (this is already starting to happen) as a vital means of exchanging currency - it'll really take off.

 

[Yoda]

Take everything with a grain of salt, but here's going to be my strategy going forward...

Every so often, I'm going to simply pull out a "percentage of profits" from each coin I have (currently ETH and LTC) and and re-invest into other, non-mainstream coins. Here's why:

1. If I lose my profits, oh well. When in Vegas...
2. I'm also okay losing my investment (financially speaking). I'm using money I can 'afford to lose' in this.
3. If one of the alts hits big, sweet. Unemotional, unequivocal fun money.

I am not as well read within the topic of crypto as I'd like to be; I can't devote the time and resources to doing so at this time. That said, I'm going to keep putting some money in the game to learn, and have some fun, too.

Since my start, I've doubled my money. And I know it can go away just as fast.

But, in the eyes of a Fastlaner, there is an especially interesting EV here, which heavily plays against the idea this is all just a lottery.​

I'm okay with calculated gambling, over a period of time, so long as it's systematic.

I'm going to attempt to make it so.

 

[MetalGear]

• I realized that this crypto craze has been distracting me from my primary entrepreneurial pursuits
• Time and mental energy spent on this is spreading me thin
• I did not meet my objectives for the week and it shows on Trello
• I am going to establish a buy and hold as a long-term investment...
• It will be about 2% of my portfolio, dollar cost averaged over time
• Boom, DONE

 

[James Fake]

Hey guys.... you know what is great about a Bubble? That you can get out....(no one is pointing a gun to your head)

You know what else is great about a Bubble? You can get out with a crap load of money...

So.. let's take Person A and Person B. Person A and Person B both agree Bitcoin maybe a bubble.

Person A says "I know it's a bubble, but it's a money machine and I will milk it until it begins to topple & I'll get out with all my profits. Maybe I get caught on just a tad bit of the down, but overall, I come out with 80%+ of my profits."

Person B says "This is a bubble. This is a bubble. This is a bubble." grins with joy & takes no action because it could come crashing down annnnnyyyy minute now.

4 Years Later...

Person A is now a multi-millionaire.

Person B is not a multi-millionare but can sure be super prideful about being soooo right that it was a bubble all along!

Person A is happy, very happy. His family is happy. His parents are proud. He has freedom.

Person B is well.... at work right now, he'll call you back when his shift is over.

Moral: It doesn't matter if it's a bubble or not. It's what you do and move knowing it could be a bubble.

p.s. Iota broke out downward out the consolidation triangle.. likely heading to 50% retracement of previous movement, and that low would be $3.09 give or take. So anytime between now and $3.09 in this downward movement, it should break out. =)

 

[Yoda]

Over the last couple weeks, I've day traded quite a lot. My market value is down, but I'm winning, big time.

Here's why:

I stopped focusing on what Binance tells me I have, dollar-wise, and started focusing on what I can control most... coin count.
​

Hear me out.

When I originally got into this thing, my strategy was buy, hold, peel profits, re-invest. As I learned more about the market and what value different coins provided, I consolidated all my profits into three (VEN, ICX, XRB). My aim was then longer-term focused, and peeling profits at a very strategic pattern.

As things started moving downward, though, the strategy would mean simply holding; and so I did.

But, I had a decision to make... keep my strategy in force (ayyyy), or look at the logic of getting active as the streets turned blood red.

I actually put away the phone and computer for a couple days and reflected on what I wanted to do.

I weighed the pros, cons, and looked at the maximum possible loss versus maximum possible gain. The more I looked at the market, as a whole, I tried to see everything on a larger, longer timeline. That's when I had a thought...

What would "1-year-from-now-me" look back and advise myself?
​

The answer was, ultimately, accumulate more coins. If I knew, a year from now, every coin I owned of "X" was worth $1,000, what could I do which would allow me to have the most future value?

Simply, get more coins. The price of the coins now (as long as it was under $1,000) meant nothing.

None of us can control the value, but we can control the coin count.

That little shift in my mindset has made all the difference; instead of seeing my account value as a green or red, I'm now looking at my coin count as green or red.
​

I've been simply making what I'd call "micro-bets" each day. I'm trying to add 1-10 coins per day. That's it. Not trying to double my stack, not trying to make huge gains. It might mean catching a 2% swing over a 15-30 minute period. Small wins.

I'll pop in-and-out of a position, when I feel there is a legitimate trend or spiral, and then be done. My goal has been to accumulate a few coins per day, and it's working.

*Yes, this is day-trading. Yes, this is risky. So is all of crypto.

But, here's why this is different, and why I would ask you to consider your own stack count more than any other factor.

​

No matter what the market does, you can wake up every day and know your coin count hasn't diminished at all, unless you do something to lose it.

Focus on coin count.​

 

[AceVentures]

How do you guys decide when to pull then?

Genuine question - is it more data driven or gut feeling (or both)?

I don't ever plan on pulling out. I'll play the swings, take profit and buy dips.

But I'm very long on some of this stuff. For me there is no other asset that I would prefer to own today than ETH. And I have no need for fiat at the moment. I can get fiat or the equivalent of fiat almost instantly when I want to.

My plan is to continue to participate in this economy. 1ETH will always = 1ETH. So my bet on ETH is not on it's price vs the USD, it's on whether or not ETH the economy will be prosperous enough for me to participate in and outpace my earning potential vs the traditional/sovereign economies.

I got a loan a few days ago, in USD, within seconds using DeFi. A massive loan for that matter. Something I've never done in traditional finance because of all the red tape and the bureaucracy around getting loans. But in DeFi I can do it in one click. In fact, I can get self-paying loans that intelligently use the yield from my collateral to pay off my debt. And that's just the beginning for what smart-contracts enable as financial tools. "self driving banks"

Why would I take an instrument that enables me that level of power, one which is about to experience a supply crisis the equivalent of 3 bitcoin halvings over the next 18 months and exchange it for a piece of paper that is seeing the level of supply increase shown below?



My intuition tells me the "bubble" popping is not ETH or BTC. The value that ETH produces doesn't stop over night, but all things equal, in a scenario where people are banding together to form a shared belief around money, the system that has a rigged supply mechanism won't be favored especially when fruitful alternative economies are emerging. In fact, the value that ETH produces becomes exponentially higher in a scenario like today with political and economic turmoil everywhere.

JP Morgan, one of the biggest banks in America, is offering 2yr bonds secured on ETH. Mastercard and Visa want to secure global payments via ETH. The SEC chairman was an MIT cryptocurrency professor, and vocal SEC commissioners are emphasizing their openness to empower innovation using blockchain. The Rothschild buy ETH and BTC, and everybody and their momma that was worth a damn in Sillicon Valley is working around the clock to participate in this economy.

And you're going to FUD over it going down? If it wasn't the future of payments, why would the global fintech leaders in payment pour assymetric amounts of cash into building crypto-secured payment channels?

I follow the story as it's unfolding, and today it seems like it's unfolding in the shape of ETH going up, and USD going down. Idc what shape the chart had in 2017. That's not my crystal ball. My crystal ball is my intuition and my understanding of the world.

 

[Kak]

You guys doing ok?

Been a crap week for everything, but crypto has really taken a hit.

Hope everyone’s good.

 

[Ing]

time to sell!
Buy high, sell low

 

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[JamesQB8]

More dips incoming...

We'll go up from here. Unless we go down or sideways of course.