Why The Statistics Lie: The Truth On Your 'Chances' Of Big Success Is Not What You May Think

[EndlessJourney]

Hello Forum,
This is my first Thread, and while I don't have much to say regarding myself, I wish to start this Thread to get some feedback from a group of people who won't immediately discard this as insanity, as unfortunately the entire population has done so far. I have purposely made the title vague, in order to attract people who may, or may not agree with the points that I am about to make. I simply wish to have a nice diverse debate, well not so much of a debate rather than a bunch (hopefully bunch) of responses. The points may be well known, or may be completely new points, I'm brand new to this forum so my apologizes if this happens to be a very well known topic.

The points:

Short and sweet, my points revolve around the fact (at least in my eyes) that the huge amount of 'statistics' and 'expert' advice regarding the chances of people achieving great success are completely false. I believe that anyone, yes I emphasize ANYONE, regardless of race, background, gender, or disability, can become whatever they wish to in the business world. Now the biggest problem that I seem to get from the outside world are the dang statistics that everyone tells me. Oh there are only 2,500 or so billionaires in the world, so your chances of becoming one are almost slim to none. Better hit those lotto tickets they tell you, because you have a better chance of winning the lottery that becoming a billionaire through your crazy 'business' ideas.

Now that makes my blood boil, and knowing the population on this forum, it likely makes yours boil as well. The statistics are blatantly false, and if you believe in them, well please listen to what I have to say regarding these facts that the mainstream loves to throw at us entrepreneurs and entrepreneur hopefuls. Firstly, people love this statistic, the 2,500 or so billionaires compared to 7 billion people in this world. Now they tell me that because of the 2,500/7,000,000,000 ratio, my chances of getting into the group is almost 0. The biggest thing that people don't understand (I try telling them but they scream and call me stupid), is that of those 7 billion people, how many want to be billionaires, or insert crazy aspiration in life (many entrepreneurs don't just eye the green).

We can agree that quite a lot of those 7 billion want to BE a billionaire. Now how many are willing to put in the time, in order to learn how to achieve it, think or get a plan to attain it, and have the tenacity and will to make that plan into reality? Not much I say, not that many. I can't really get exact numbers here, because I am not professor X and I can't read everyone's mind and listen to their life goals, but think, in the planet, how many people want to REALLY be a billionaire or something like that?
Let's say that in this 7 billion people world, only 10 million or so have the will to simply make a huge enterprise out of nothing. I say 10 million because you need someone who simply does not want to give up, and is physically unable to stop when there is a goal in mind. S0 we have 10 million, of those 10 million, let's say 5 million are willing to come up with a plan and study how to really do this. Then let's say only a million want to hit the books and learn how to use that plan.

Great we got a million rivals now, how am I supposed to become what I want with SO many people? Sit tight, and let me narrow that number down a little. Remember this is everyone who has the potential to do this. Wait, you said ANYONE can become this right, now only a MILLION can? Your such a hypocrite, eh no not really. Look, ANYONE can do it, but in the population, with so many different attitudes and work ethics, around a MILLION have the mindset. This forum was created by a person who wrote a book to get you in the MINDSET. His gift is not the blueprint on getting rich, it's calibrating those neurons for you to create your OWN blueprint.

So back to the million number. This is the people who can do this, whose work ethic and attitude fits the bill. Almost everyone on this forum is part of the million mark, for everyone here either is here to troll or learn/contribute to this wealth making beauty that is entrepreneurship. So I know you have the mindset, vs the rest of the population. Now we need to narrow down that number more, because while 1/1,000,000 is much better than 2,500/7,000,000,000 it is still not enough to have a convincing argument.
So here goes, the narrow down part. You have a million, of those million, how many actually want to start a business? How many actually want to do this? They have the tools, but who wants to actually do it? Let's go with 500,000. Now this is your rival base, in the planet you have 500,000 wannabe billionaires, now you got some heat. OK, how many of these people will start a business that will be able to GROW to necessary expectations?

This is the hard part, for I cannot judge a business on if it will fail or not. That's up to the market, and up to the customer, who is the ultimate boss of all of us. I also have no right to say this will fail, or this will not, for I don't see the niche, nor do I see the team who is building the enterprise. However, there are many businessmen who have some problem, or the market does not like the product, in which case the market has life over death power over the business.

I therefore cannot narrow it down further that around 500,000 and there is a good chance that these numbers are quite different, they are simply placeholders. The biggest point that I can make in this little Thread is the fact that statistics cannot be in your way as you strive to build a large business. They simply cannot be in the way of your dream, nor of your team.

With that I will end this post, and wish to ask the forum of their opinions. I wish to end by saying that anyone can make it, and any business can make it as well, you simply need to satisfy the all powerful boss, which is the rest of the population who is buying your good/service. Also with the advancement of civilization, more and more wealth is created and productivity goes up, so eventually, every human can become a billionaire or whatever they want to be. The universe is yours, you simply need to get all the wealth that you want.

 

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[Mattie]

I personally don't like statistics. Why? The information is only gathered by a number of participants. Unless it's like something majorly researched like in medical trials and over a long period of time through the decades it might have validity. I think I still stand by what I learned in college. Resources and how valid are those resources. I've learned basically every book other then by major researchers is pretty much someone's experience and what they believe personally. Someones opinion.

I can tell you write now I can write a book on success, but it doesn't mean who reads it will succeed. There are to many variables. How I got this far, won't be mirrored by another person, because my experience is unique. There may be common knowledge that is over saturated, but the exact blue print will never happen. My experience is unique and can never be copied. Even in M.J.'s book he shared knowledge, but everything that happen in his life from beginning until now all created him to be who he is in his experience. Different faces, players, opportunities, process, and timing.

Whether someone becomes a billionaire really comes down too a few things.
1. Who they know. I don't care who is talking. Someone helped them get there and took interest in them.
2. The dedication, drive, and devotion to get there.
3. Getting through the process of personal development, learning skills necessary to get there, and applying them.
4. Sacrifices in friendships, sometimes family, activities, pleasure, and having fun.
5. Resources available at different points in time.
6. Action: Applying yourself when no one else does.
7. Choices have a lot to do with whether you make it or not.
8. Who you hang out with and their mindset.
9. Beliefs/Mindset/Negative Self Talk this all needs to be unlearned and learned again
10. How badly you want to get there.
11. Timing. Learning when to move, hold back, and interact with opportunity and take action.

I'm sure there is more, but statistics, really don't have a lot to do with whether you make it up there. Who cares about the statistics. You can put yourself in a box and limit yourself or stop looking at it and just do what you need to do.

For me personally, I could care less how many billionaires and millionaires there are in the world. What does it have anything to do with taking action and getting myself where I need to be. Wow! They're having the time of their lives. Great, I have work to do. Obviously at some point in time they had to do the same thing instead of looking at statistics and wondering how many millionaires and billionaires were in the world. And getting upset over the stupid things people say.

People say all kinds of crap, lies, scams, manipulate, and have B.S. What can you really do about it? You can't do anything. Why waste your time.

 

[EndlessJourney]

^ Thank you for replying Mattie!

I can agree 100% on what you say about statistics and research journals, it's opinionated. I also read your 11 points on what makes someone become a billionaire, and your point especially on the unique experiences that every entrepreneur faces and experiences. I am so happy that I have people responding without bashing or insulting me based on my point of view, so firstly thank you so much for that!

The 11 points however I like, they are very accurate in every rags to riches success story that I have ever read, and I read quite a few of them. I am not sure if this pings a reply to you, or sends you a notification, however I simply wish to ask one question, on your first point. You say that someone must of taken interest in them and helped them get there, now I know what you mean by that, however I'm interested in the possibility of stretching out that first point. You need a team, guaranteed, however is it at all required to have a Investor (AC or VC), in order to succeed? Because I wish to cite the first ever billionaire, John D. Rockefeller. This man, never had a investor of sorts unless you count Vanderbilt, but I consider that to be a lucky business deal, not a 'investment'.

Granted you need capital to be injected, but if the idea is good enough, you will likely get the investor anyways, so I'm kind of contradicting. But is it possible to have a rags to riches story, just through sheer will and perseverance, and reinvesting your meager starting profits and watch them exponentially grow?

 

[Mattie]

I don't believe anyone gets anywhere in this world without any help. What do you consider help? Two things get a billionaire to where he is money and education.

How does someone help you:
1. Family: Fed you, kept you alive, and educated negative or positive things until a certain age.
2. Someone gave you a job to make money or you inherited money. Someone may have donated money. The client or customer hired you so you could make money.
3. Someone introduced you to someone that gave you the idea, or knew someone else who gave you knowledge or education or opportunity.
4. Free and Open Source: The idea behind it: if we make everything free, everyone will have equal opportunity. This helps you get free knowledge, but also works the opposite way. An entrepreneur can see what you're doing, how it's not working, improve it, change it, and make it into something different and sell it.
5. People invented the Internet and computer which helps you have opportunity.
6. Competition exposes what they're doing on every website. They help you out by paying for their site, exposing their products and content. Teaching you again what you need to know. As in this forum you have many people helping you out to become a billionaire if this is your objective.
7. There are no lucky moments. You just make the right choices, show up, and network.
8. Are you a good investment. I think this is relevant whether people feel you're a good investment. Not in money matters, but in how you roll in business and relationships. A billionaire's not going to invest in you if you're sidewalk gangsta and make bad choices and have bad attitude, poor language skills, and manners. Who he invests in reflects on his reputation.

The list can go on in the ways people can help you. Even the people you consider your enemies help you. They spar with you, iron sharpens iron, and I suppose they teach you how to discipline yourself, practice, train, develop, and how to be strategic. Which comes down to the book the art of war. Some play chess, poker, and go. You better know how to play all the games.

I'm not a millionaire or billionaire and really unless you've traveled the roads yourself, you can only speculate what the billion choices and moves were to get there. Billionaires walked the walk and know what they're talking about. Anyone else is just giving half way advice or an opinion.

 

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[Dwight Schrute]

Even the people you consider your enemies help you. They spar with you, iron sharpens iron, and I suppose they teach you how to discipline yourself, practice, train, develop, and how to be strategic.

^This! A wise person gets more from his enemies than a fool from his friends.

 

[tafy]

Yeah I like it, now take all those maths and make it about being a millionaire instead of billionaire and we got a really great chance!

 

[GuestA4319]

I get your idea, but for me seems kinda flawed.

Rethink it from this:
- there are about 400 million entrepreneurs in the world(http://www.asianentrepreneur.org/how-many-people-in-the-world-are-really-entrepreneurs/)
- there are about 16 million millionaires in the world according to a few studies.
- only insane people want to become billionaires when they are not already millionaires

 

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[Digamma]

Oh boy.

Now the biggest problem that I seem to get from the outside world are the dang statistics that everyone tells me. Oh there are only 2,500 or so billionaires in the world, so your chances of becoming one are almost slim to none.
....
Now they tell me that because of the 2,500/7,000,000,000 ratio, my chances of getting into the group is almost 0.

You don't understand what statistics mean. Those statistics tell nothing about your chances of getting into the group, since it's not a lottery.

Sure, now I could dissect the post further, but why? The whole premise is flawed.

Besides, who does the whole thing benefit? Op writes a million words on something he misunderstands because he feels the emotional need to justify that he wants to be a billionaire, which makes him a front runner for wantrepreneur of the year. And he does it, mind you, because of things like "the biggest problem that I seem to get from the outside world" and "makes my blood boil", which means that he needs emotional motivation to overcome other people's opinions.

So I'm going to do something that is actually useful and helpful. OP, get over yourself. Nobody gives a F*ck that you want to be a billionaire. Get to work or you'll fall right in line with the statistics you hate so much.

Let's end with:

it likely makes yours boil as well

It likely doesn't, because when you actually do something the F*cks given to the opinion of the masses are rapidly depleted.

 

[EndlessJourney]

^ Thank you to all of the replies!,

Mattie I now see the point that you make, and understand your reasoning now behind the necessity of having people back you. Thank you for clarifying. I also agree with Dwight that enemies make your hide much stronger every time that they go up against you, that's an excellent little snip of advice. To the poster who said he likes it, well first off thank you for liking, and second yes, we all have to hit the millionaire benchmark before the billionaire benchmark.

To Digamma and crisper, first off yes I would consider myself crazy, for I personally have this goal. Now imagine how 'crazy' the general populace feels about my plans. I am very young, and have the benefit of 'waking up' to the lies of society quite early, and I'm here to learn. So I will simply respond to you with my explanation, and feel free to give me advice regarding the views that I have. Firstly Digamma I learned to not care about societies opinions, and they don't affect me. For some reason I have a very hostile reaction whenever people disagree with me, which I learned to simply deal with through discipline. The blood boil happens whenever someone disagrees with me on any subject, however it's now been converted into a motivation tool, whereas back in the day it got me into a lot of conflict.

Also it hopefully is meant to benefit everyone, no matter the side of the views that I have. I wish to learn from people who walked the path I plan to walk on, and people who won't simply shut down the convo and begin insulations, as I get quite frequently from people who claim to be experts at making money, but barely have enough to pay the bills. So don't worry, I can motivate myself emotionally no matter the rest of the population, but the very people who disagree with me are ultimately the final bosses of me, so I'm here to learn how to serve their every desire, and get filthy rich from it.

 

[Digamma]

Firstly Digamma I learned to not care about societies opinions, and they don't affect me. For some reason I have a very hostile reaction whenever people disagree with me, which I learned to simply deal with through discipline. The blood boil happens whenever someone disagrees with me on any subject, however it's now been converted into a motivation tool, whereas back in the day it got me into a lot of conflict.

Bullshit. If you didn't care, why would you have an hostile reaction?
Having the need to be agreed with is typical of children and losers. You say motivation, but motivation itself is an emotional fix. Get over your opinions, get over your need to be right, or they will hold you back. I'm saying this as somebody who went through the same thing.

 

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[EndlessJourney]

^ Alright, so what will the best solution to this be then. I'm interested in fixing this if it will truly hold be back, so what should I do about my opinions and point of views, ignore them, or hold them close. You say to get over my opinions and need to be right, so stop arguing with people and just do? What do you recommend that I do?

 

[Digamma]

^ Alright, so what will the best solution to this be then. I'm interested in fixing this if it will truly hold be back, so what should I do about my opinions and point of views, ignore them, or hold them close. You say to get over my opinions and need to be right, so stop arguing with people and just do? What do you recommend that I do?

Arguing? Of course you should stop arguing. What in hell are you going to achieve by arguing?
Why does what other people think have any emotional effect on you? Ask yourself that. It makes no sense.

This is something you need to do with yourself, I don't have a self help book to sell you.

 

[GuestA4319]

When I was 12 I wanted to be like Bill Gates. I said to everyone, if he could do it, I can do it too. I'll find another idea, I'll build something else(robots,etc) that will revolutionize the world.

When I started to grow up, read about business, read about millionaires, I started to understand that this is not so easy achievable, that are external factors that I can not control. I learned that luck, timing, relationships, people, ideas, opportunities, emotions, experience, etc influences your success.

When I launched my first business at 17, when I got my first clients I understood even better how childish my thinking was.

It's good to have long-life goals, but each stage of your success has a different goal. I know that you see on TV or on some books how billionaires say that they want to change the world, to have an impact,etc. Well, the thing is, they set this goal once they had a tiny chance to achieve it...

Dreaming is childish(like wanting to be like Bill Gates and didn't made any money on my own), having a goal that you can follow is something else.

After you make your first $10,000, get back here and read this thread...

 

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[Maxjohan]

I think what determines the billionaire status or not the most. Is what market you are in and your product. If you get in to something like learning how to survive in the wilderness. Well. That's maybe a $20 million a year market. If you get 1% of that with flawless execution and nailing your product. Then you have a $200,000 a year business. Okay. Say that you are super good at execution. And get 10% market share. That's $2 million a year. Not bad.

But if you took your execution, add some innovation into an industry like auto insurance. Say you are some kind of camparision insurance site online with a twist. After 10 years in business. In $220 billion a year market. You have a 0.2% market share. That would mean $440 million a year in revenue. If you sell your business I am sure you will get a $1 billion or so. If your business is somewhat profitable.

Being first to innovate in a big market I believe is the safest path to becoming a billionaire as a entrepreneur. The problem is. Most people think too small. And are fine with not scaling and going big.

They spend nothing on advertising or PR and therefore they are just making like $400,000 a year with their business. Most people are fine with that. And are never reaching for the stars.

Yes. I was also aiming to becoming a billionaire when I was in my early 20s. Now I am not that interested in that. I don't need that much money to get freedom and buy what I want. I'm no longer swayed away by the yacht or the big house. Like I was when I was younger. (I am 31 now. By the way.)

 

[Mattie]

my opinions and point of views

My experience not even being a billionaire, is they don't care about your opinions and point of view. They don't care about your feelings and emotions. Unless it produces results and shows action, they don't want to waste their time with you.

 

[M&A]

I think what determines the billionaire status or not the most. Is what market you are in and your product. If you get in to something like learning how to survive in the wilderness. Well. That's maybe a $20 million a year market. If you get 1% of that with flawless execution and nailing your product. Then you have a $200,000 a year business. Okay. Say that you are super good at execution. And get 10% market share. That's $2 million a year. Not bad.

But if you took your execution, add some innovation into an industry like auto insurance. Say you are some kind of camparision insurance site online with a twist. After 10 years in business. In $220 billion a year market. You have a 0.2% market share. That would mean $440 million a year in revenue. If you sell your business I am sure you will get a $1 billion or so. If your business is somewhat profitable.

Being first to innovate in a big market I believe is the safest path to becoming a billionaire as a entrepreneur. The problem is. Most people think too small. And are fine with not scaling and going big.

They spend nothing on advertising or PR and therefore they are just making like $400,000 a year with their business. Most people are fine with that. And are never reaching for the stars.

Yes. I was also aiming to becoming a billionaire when I was in my early 20s. Now I am not that interested in that. I don't need that much money to get freedom and buy what I want. I'm no longer swayed away by the yacht or the big house. Like I was when I was younger. (I am 31 now. By the way.)

The future billionaires of the world don't say "hey if I get x% of a X big market I will have X amount of wealth". You here people say that kind of garbage all the time on shark tank and get eaten alive.

 

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[M&A]

Doublepost

 

[Maxjohan]

The future billionaires of the world don't say "hey if I get x% of a X big market I will have X amount of wealth". You here people say that kind of garbage all the time on shark tank and get eaten alive.

It was just examples to show that you need less % market share in a big market of $220 billion than in a smaller market of $20 million. But I agree that I wouldn't go pitch "I will have 10% market share of X market in 3 years from now" on shark tank. That's just ridiculous. I agree with that.

 

[juggler619]

Developed a hatred towards statistic data/facts post reading TMF , Statistics are meant only for slowlaners from a guidance tool to excuse tool or a blame tool.....

If your a do'er nothing stops you irrespective of your limitation!

 

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[tafy]

Yeah you do need to attack a huge market to get to billionaire status, thats true. I wonder how many true entrepreners there are in the world? Not counting the people in small businesses that will never expand beyond their location.

 

[mustang1]

Read Felix Dennis.
He tackles this exact problem (statistical odds of becoming very rich) in his books.

(Cliffs: OF COURSE your odds are MUCH better than 2,500/7,000,000,000. More like 1/90 for multimillionaires IIRC.)

Obviously there is no way of telling the exact odds (too many variables).
But I'm sure there is no NEED to know exactly. For me it's enough to basically know that it can be done with good enough probability.

 

[EmperorPear]

IMHO there are as much billionaires and millionaires as there should be.
Like @juggler619 wisely said, statistics don't mean jack, if you are doing stuff that makes millionaires, you will be a millionaire.

Living by statistics will make *you* a statistic.

 

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[EndlessJourney]

^ Great points from everyone!

I feel that I'm not at position to really debate anything, for the information that I received from my first Thread is so good, and the negativity was so low, that I can't really debate. Also a poster up above said not to debate and just do it, and not care about the ones who disagree, so I will take his advice and do just that.

However, I still would love more criticism from people who are interested in pointing out flaws in my analysis and outlook, and whilst I don't want someone babysitting me and telling me oh you got to do this and that, one it's just not the way I like to learn, and two I doubt you want to babysit anybody, I want people giving advice and point out anything that is bad. But THANK YOU for not trolling nor auto rejecting my point of view, and thank you for taking the time out of your lives to help me and whoever else wanders into this Thread learn something new.

 

[brickco]

Yes, statistics are useless... in this scenario.

But statistics are wonderful in a lot of other cases when you can use them properly.

I use split-testing, regression analysis, probability, control charts, and hypothesis testing to drive my business decisions.

If you think statistics are a waste of time, then you are willfully ignorant. Hunches, anecdotes, feel-goodery, and other non-evidence based data is nonsense.

Math is math. It's not right or wrong, or trying to trick you, it's just there, and it is the truth whether you like it or not.

 

[Digamma]

Yes, statistics are useless... in this scenario.

But statistics are wonderful in a lot of other cases when you can use them properly.

I use split-testing, regression analysis, probability, control charts, and hypothesis testing to drive my business decisions.

If you think statistics are a waste of time, then you are willfully ignorant. Hunches, anecdotes, feel-goodery, and other non-evidence based data is nonsense.

Math is math. It's not right or wrong, or trying to trick you, it's just there, and it is the truth whether you like it or not.

I agree completely. Statistics is a powerful tool. I love it. It's also extremely misunderstood - most of the time, and especially online, I see people completely misuse statistics to draw idiotic conclusions.
One main reason? People tend to think that statistics are intuitive - they are actually the opposite. Human intuition sucks with that particular branch of mathematics. Even experts have to guard themselves all the time against this trap.

 

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[GuestA4319]

I'm not a statistics guru but I do have a landing page optimization tool for affiliate marketers. What amazes me is how many internet marketers who drive traffic worth 5 figures/day don't use basic statistics to decide which variation of a landing page or banner is the winner/loser. They do make a few variations, but they decide by "gut" when to cut a variation or when to let it run.

When I tell them they lose 6 figures/year just by making mistakes like this, most of them won't believe me.