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My 2022 Prediction: Price Controls

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lludwig

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With inflation running as hot as it is, I believe the only option the Biden Admin has is price controls. Not that I'm a fan of it or think it will help (it will not). But the fact to say they are doing something about inflation to the general populous.

I think this will make things worse, not better. I don't think the FED can raise rates as much as people expect. They can't raise them to 4-5% this would make debt service unsustainable, plus would crash the housing and stock market.

I also expect stagflation to rear its ugly head if not already here.

What do you predict will happen in 2022?
 
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wanttogofaster

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I hope you're wrong, because such a measure, in my opinion, would be the beginning of the end of the USA and capitalism as we know it.
I'm not a history or economics expert, but do know of different countries that tried price controls, and the result was the destruction of many of their industries and devastating their economies.
 

Seamster

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With inflation running as hot as it is, I believe the only option the Biden Admin has is price controls. Not that I'm a fan of it or think it will help (it will not). But the fact to say they are doing something about inflation to the general populous.

I think this will make things worse, not better. I don't think the FED can raise rates as much as people expect. They can't raise them to 4-5% this would make debt service unsustainable, plus would crash the housing and stock market.

I also expect stagflation to rear its ugly head if not already here.

What do you predict will happen in 2022?
You do realize that the government is the one causing inflation, right? They're printing all this money to prevent what would have been worse in 2009, which, BTW, they also caused by creating the predatory lending practices of 1997-2007. Yet, still printing. Prolonging. Making bubbles. Making inflation. Or, you could similarly say they're adding yet another tax to the middle class. We already have 15% tax your employer pays to employ you, 25-35% or more income tax, sales tax, property tax, gasoline tax, whatever crap is on the phone bills, capital gains tax, etc. (Sorry, you probably know this, I just can't resist because think I'm nuts when I say most people pay well over 50% in taxes.)

Anyway, man, very interesting concept! I just texted that to my friend. Did you hear someone talking about that or did you think of it? If so, any links? I have no opinion as it's never crossed my mind! But, thinking about it, maybe it would be similar to what we're already seeing: biflation. That's when the assets that one group of people spend money on (the rich spend on stocks, RE, cypto, etc) go up in value, whereas what the poor spends their money on (groceries) doesn't go up as much (yes, I know, the poor are some of the biggest consumers of certain luxury items like iPhones or Grey Goose.)
They couldn't control the price of certain foods though because then, just like the silver miners today, the farmers would just stop producing food because they're losing money by doing it. So then the government would have to subsidize them more, with, well, another tax on the middle class.

I'm not even an economist and I thought of that. Politicians probably ARE really smart, but, they don't need to be and they get paid more when they do the illogical thing. So, we probably will see something crazy like this happen!


I hope you're wrong, because such a measure, in my opinion, would be the beginning of the end of the USA and capitalism as we know it.
I'm not a history or economics expert, but do know of different countries that tried price controls, and the result was the destruction of many of their industries and devastating their economies.
Capitalism is already dead in the US. The large corporations run the country through the government. We're a nation of the bankers, for the bankers, by the bankers.

Anything recommended to read on the price controls? I'm interested in it.
 

Martzee

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It is all over-exaggeration. Inflation will subside. The inflation was caused by companies that held cash during covid and not ordering enough goods, now they are understocked while consumer demand is high and they are oversupplying themselves. Once the equilibrium is hit, we will see a massive deflation. FED will not taper or raise the rates and if they do, they will be forced to slash them again (like they were forced in 2019). The market may be choppy next year, but overall it will hit the $5,400 level during the year 2022. On the way up, there will be a bunch of 5% pullbacks, 10% corrections, and we may even see a 20% decline (historically, the markets experience 2 to 4 corrections per year on average, with the only exception in 2017 when there was none). Watch corporate earnings estimates and VIX futures term structure and you will know what is going on. The rest is noise and media scare tactics.
 
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Kak

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With inflation running as hot as it is, I believe the only option the Biden Admin has is price controls. Not that I'm a fan of it or think it will help (it will not). But the fact to say they are doing something about inflation to the general populous.

I think this will make things worse, not better. I don't think the FED can raise rates as much as people expect. They can't raise them to 4-5% this would make debt service unsustainable, plus would crash the housing and stock market.

I also expect stagflation to rear its ugly head if not already here.

What do you predict will happen in 2022?
Of course. They’ll pretend like they are saving us from the “evil capitalists” who just so happened to all unilaterally raise prices at the same time, for no reason whatsoever, with no company going after an ensuing competitive advantage.

It’s idiocracy folks. There is no pulling out of the death spiral. People are too stupid to handle or even comprehend reality anymore. Supply and demand is a conspiracy theory now.

Concerning price controls… If you think shelves are empty now? Just remember hand sanitizer. Price controls, just like currency debasement, will be bipartisan.

We are just around the corner from watering the f*ckin crops with Gatorade.

F0FE9E9D-D602-4016-843E-1E937248651D.jpeg
 
Last edited:

Martzee

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Of course. They’ll pretend like they are saving us from the “evil capitalists” who just so happened to all unilaterally raise prices at the same time, for no reason whatsoever, with no company going after an ensuing competitive advantage.

It’s idiocracy folks. There is no pulling out of the death spiral. People are too stupid to handle or even comprehend reality anymore. Supply and demand is a conspiracy theory now.

Concerning price controls… If you think shelves are empty now? Just remember hand sanitizer. Price controls, just like currency debasement, will be bipartisan.

We are just around the corner from watering the f*ckin crops with Gatorade.

View attachment 41344
2 buckets
 

lludwig

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I hope you're wrong, because such a measure, in my opinion, would be the beginning of the end of the USA and capitalism as we know it.
I'm not a history or economics expert, but do know of different countries that tried price controls, and the result was the destruction of many of their industries and devastating their economies.
We did this in the 1970's (They "WIN" Whip Inflation Now buttons) so this isn't new. Though we are long gone from capitalism before this. We have a mixed economy and getting the worst of all economic systems.
 
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lludwig

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lludwig

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It is all over-exaggeration. Inflation will subside. The inflation was caused by companies that held cash during covid and not ordering enough goods, now they are understocked while consumer demand is high and they are oversupplying themselves. Once the equilibrium is hit, we will see a massive deflation. FED will not taper or raise the rates and if they do, they will be forced to slash them again (like they were forced in 2019). The market may be choppy next year, but overall it will hit the $5,400 level during the year 2022. On the way up, there will be a bunch of 5% pullbacks, 10% corrections, and we may even see a 20% decline (historically, the markets experience 2 to 4 corrections per year on average, with the only exception in 2017 when there was none). Watch corporate earnings estimates and VIX futures term structure and you will know what is going on. The rest is noise and media scare tactics.
Yes, some of the inflation is truly transitory. A lot is not and is baked into our cake.

I do think this is the match the lit the fire and we are no longer going to see 2-3% inflation rates. Even other measures expect higher than average rates of around 4-5%. If price controls occur yes it will be worse.

And yes the net result is a choopy 2022 for the stock market as well.
 

Greg Behnke

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lludwig

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I was going to say I just watched George Gammon go over this on the video and it makes a lot of sense.
Stuff like this ALWAYS makes sense. The question is he (and I) right :) We'll see.
 

lludwig

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Gorm

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It all depends on the actions of the central banks. If monetary policy is tightened at a faster pace, then inflation can decline very quickly.
 
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lludwig

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It all depends on the actions of the central banks. If monetary policy is tightened at a faster pace, then inflation can decline very quickly.
3-4% by the FED? will never happen.
 

Raoul Duke

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Lol! Why? Because they say they can?
vQDvJBM.gif
 
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Dangerous Donna

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You do realize that the government is the one causing inflation, right? They're printing all this money to prevent what would have been worse in 2009, which, BTW, they also caused by creating the predatory lending practices of 1997-2007. Yet, still printing. Prolonging. Making bubbles. Making inflation. Or, you could similarly say they're adding yet another tax to the middle class. We already have 15% tax your employer pays to employ you, 25-35% or more income tax, sales tax, property tax, gasoline tax, whatever crap is on the phone bills, capital gains tax, etc. (Sorry, you probably know this, I just can't resist because think I'm nuts when I say most people pay well over 50% in taxes.)

Anyway, man, very interesting concept! I just texted that to my friend. Did you hear someone talking about that or did you think of it? If so, any links? I have no opinion as it's never crossed my mind! But, thinking about it, maybe it would be similar to what we're already seeing: biflation. That's when the assets that one group of people spend money on (the rich spend on stocks, RE, cypto, etc) go up in value, whereas what the poor spends their money on (groceries) doesn't go up as much (yes, I know, the poor are some of the biggest consumers of certain luxury items like iPhones or Grey Goose.)
They couldn't control the price of certain foods though because then, just like the silver miners today, the farmers would just stop producing food because they're losing money by doing it. So then the government would have to subsidize them more, with, well, another tax on the middle class.

I'm not even an economist and I thought of that. Politicians probably ARE really smart, but, they don't need to be and they get paid more when they do the illogical thing. So, we probably will see something crazy like this happen!



Capitalism is already dead in the US. The large corporations run the country through the reagovernment. We're a nation of the bankers, for the bankers, by the bankers.

Anything recommended to read on the price controls? I'm interested in it.
Agreed with the opinions. Federal reserve, banks, running the inflation and Repubs an Dems politicians both on that train. I believe Inflation is causing climate change because the more hours we have to work, to make more money to pay our bills is more hours of driving, and usage of all utilities. So the central banks are causing all the problems and becoming out of this world wealthy.
 

Gorm

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Agreed with the opinions. Federal reserve, banks, running the inflation and Repubs an Dems politicians both on that train. I believe Inflation is causing climate change because the more hours we have to work, to make more money to pay our bills is more hours of driving, and usage of all utilities. So the central banks are causing all the problems and becoming out of this world wealthy.
The impact of inflation on climate change is a very powerful statement. Laughed)))))
 

lludwig

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lludwig

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What causes inflation? It can be the result of rising consumer demand. But inflation can also rise and fall based on developments that have little to do with economic conditions, such as limited oil production and supply chain problems.
Love this FAQ in the NYT article.

Of course no mention of money printing or fiscal policies in the past year.
 

Dangerous Donna

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Agreed with the opinions. Federal reserve, banks, running the inflation and Repubs an Dems politicians both on that train. I believe Inflation is causing climate change because the more hours we have to work, to make more money to pay our bills is more hours of driving, and usage of all utilities. So the central banks are causing all the problems and becoming out of this world wealthy.
Yes I agree with you
 

MitchC

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Agreed with the opinions. Federal reserve, banks, running the inflation and Repubs an Dems politicians both on that train. I believe Inflation is causing climate change because the more hours we have to work, to make more money to pay our bills is more hours of driving, and usage of all utilities. So the central banks are causing all the problems and becoming out of this world wealthy.
I was reading the graphs on the what happened in 1973 website or whatever it is called, I can’t find the link now, and one of them made me realise, these guys didn’t do this so they could get insanely rich, they already were, they actually did this purely to make us all poor and have to work more. It’s f*cking disgusting when you realise that. If they did it to get rich and powerful you can understand it but when you realise they did it purely to make us suffer it’s actually sickening to think about.

I just listened to the Joe Rogan North Korea episode and the girl talks about being constantly starving and not thinking about anything else but food. I think these shortages are getting us used to what’s to come. We are about to all be starved.
 
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