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Idea Evaluation (Oil and Gas Industry)

Idea threads

TheFrancophile

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Hi everyone,

I'd like to ask what you think about the following business idea, which a colleague of mine has come up with several scientists here in France :

1. The problem that needs solving : Fossil fuel prices are spiking up again. The OPEC oil cartel has recently agreed to limit oil production to hike the price ; natural gas, usually imported from Russia, is very expensive in Europe (especially for industries), and coal is also becoming more and more expensive. The rapid economic growth of China and India and their insatiable demand for energy will only put further pressure on fossil fuel prices.

Besides, oil and gas supplies are unreliable. Most of the world's oil (or at least Europe's) comes from the Middle East, where a new war between the regional players (or between the US and Iran) could erupt anytime. Most of Europe's gas comes from Russia, which frequently uses it as a political weapon. This is further bad news for European industry.

Finally, a number of European (incl. French and German) governments intend to take radical steps to curb CO2 emissions in order to slow down global warming. France has a carbon tax, currently standing at 14 EUR/metric ton of CO2 emissions, to be hiked to 50 EUR/ton in 2020 and 140 EUR/ton in 2030.

And, of course, in Europe we have a Cap-and-Trade system for emissions, as does California and some northeastern US states. Buying CO2 emission permits is costly for businesses.

All of this is bad news for energy-intensive industries such as electric power plants or the steel, cement, concrete, and petrochemical industry.

2. The solution : to capture their CO2 emissions (from the chimneys of their industrial plants) using filters, then to transport the CO2 through pipes (with the aid of pumps) to a "bioreactor" (essentially an aquarium full of algae enclosed in a small greenhouse) next to, or on the site of, such an industrial plant. Therein, the CO2 would be transformed into oxygen and carbon, which would then be liquified, enriched with biomass from the algae, and then furnished back to the customer as liquid industrial fuel. There'd also be secondary (agroalimentary) products which would be resold to farmers at 28 EUR/kg.

3. Control : my friend's friends from the university developed this technology and hold the copyright for it; we would start a company together to bring this invention to the market. I would personally be responsible for selling it to customers across Europe (I speak four languages).

4. Scale : This would start with a first contract from a mid-sized entity, such as a cement or concrete plant, but such "bioreactors" could eventually be set up at, or simply sold to, industrial facilities all across Europe (indeed, the industrialized world).

5. Time : we would only need to spend time pitching our idea to investors (banks, business angels, etc.) and then to industrial customers. To operate a bioreactor, we would hire staff.

6. Entry : the barriers for entry are big and twofold : financial and technological. Financial, because building the first bioreactor would require a significant up-front investment before we can bill our first customer. Technological, bc not everyone can develop such technology.

From my POV, there are only two problems, although they are serious problems for me :

A) My friend, who is the project director and studying in the same class at the business school as me, has just told me that we will sell biomass energy to the principal customer at a price below what it will cost us to produce, and that our main revenue, covering all the costs, will come mainly from the sale of those secondary, agricultural products from algae.
B) My friend has really been unwilling (or unable) to provide me with the complete numbers (operating costs, fixed costs, profit margins, prices to charge the customers, etc.) of the future business's finances.

What do you guys think ?
 
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jon.a

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This needs it's own thread. It would be better on the inside where it can't be searched by G.

Hi everyone,

I'd like to ask what you think about the following business idea, which a colleague of mine has come up with several scientists here in France :

1. The problem that needs solving : Fossil fuel prices are spiking up again. The OPEC oil cartel has recently agreed to limit oil production to hike the price ; natural gas, usually imported from Russia, is very expensive in Europe (especially for industries), and coal is also becoming more and more expensive. The rapid economic growth of China and India and their insatiable demand for energy will only put further pressure on fossil fuel prices.

Besides, oil and gas supplies are unreliable. Most of the world's oil (or at least Europe's) comes from the Middle East, where a new war between the regional players (or between the US and Iran) could erupt anytime. Most of Europe's gas comes from Russia, which frequently uses it as a political weapon. This is further bad news for European industry.

Finally, a number of European (incl. French and German) governments intend to take radical steps to curb CO2 emissions in order to slow down global warming. France has a carbon tax, currently standing at 14 EUR/metric ton of CO2 emissions, to be hiked to 50 EUR/ton in 2020 and 140 EUR/ton in 2030.

And, of course, in Europe we have a Cap-and-Trade system for emissions, as does California and some northeastern US states. Buying CO2 emission permits is costly for businesses.

All of this is bad news for energy-intensive industries such as electric power plants or the steel, cement, concrete, and petrochemical industry.

2. The solution : to capture their CO2 emissions (from the chimneys of their industrial plants) using filters, then to transport the CO2 through pipes (with the aid of pumps) to a "bioreactor" (essentially an aquarium full of algae enclosed in a small greenhouse) next to, or on the site of, such an industrial plant. Therein, the CO2 would be transformed into oxygen and carbon, which would then be liquified, enriched with biomass from the algae, and then furnished back to the customer as liquid industrial fuel. There'd also be secondary (agroalimentary) products which would be resold to farmers at 28 EUR/kg.

3. Control : my friend's friends from the university developed this technology and hold the copyright for it; we would start a company together to bring this invention to the market. I would personally be responsible for selling it to customers across Europe (I speak four languages).

4. Scale : This would start with a first contract from a mid-sized entity, such as a cement or concrete plant, but such "bioreactors" could eventually be set up at, or simply sold to, industrial facilities all across Europe (indeed, the industrialized world).

5. Time : we would only need to spend time pitching our idea to investors (banks, business angels, etc.) and then to industrial customers. To operate a bioreactor, we would hire staff.

6. Entry : the barriers for entry are big and twofold : financial and technological. Financial, because building the first bioreactor would require a significant up-front investment before we can bill our first customer. Technological, bc not everyone can develop such technology.

From my POV, there are only two problems, although they are serious problems for me :

A) My friend, who is the project director and studying in the same class at the business school as me, has just told me that we will sell biomass energy to the principal customer at a price below what it will cost us to produce, and that our main revenue, covering all the costs, will come mainly from the sale of those secondary, agricultural products from algae.
B) My friend has really been unwilling (or unable) to provide me with the complete numbers (operating costs, fixed costs, profit margins, prices to charge the customers, etc.) of the future business's finances.

What do you guys think ?
 

MJ DeMarco

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@TheFrancophile - I moved your post to a new thread so it gets more eyeballs. Good luck.
 

sparechange

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Oil gas is a dying industry, renewable energy is the future . Electric cars are going to take over
 
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jon2089

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Oil gas is a dying industry, renewable energy is the future . Electric cars are going to take over
Norway is almost there already with 60% of new cars sales having a plug and almost all electric production being renewable.
 

Niptuck MD

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Oil gas is a dying industry, renewable energy is the future . Electric cars are going to take over

Oil and gas will never be a “dying” industry. I have family that work on rigs and drilling and resevoir well digging is at an all time high....
Albeit the shift on electric personal vehicles is on the upswing, oil and gas will always remain necessary for the next 10-15 years (at a minimum) for jets, airplanes, cargo ships, reactors and generators as well as construction....
 

Niptuck MD

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The Tesla electric tractor is impressive feat of engineering but it is not economical at all (and not practical for owner operators) and wont be for a while. Also, servicing these vehicles will create a complete overhaul on technician training programs nationwide; (think of the community colleges that churn out mechanics etc they need to get resources etc to train future techs etc) and then working on charging points and stations is all foreseeable however not coming anytime soon. Lots of deep pockets that will not allow that to happen in both government and corporate sectors;
 
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sparechange

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Do u know about what’s going on in Alberta? Tons of people are losing they’re job
Oil and gas will never be a “dying” industry. I have family that work on rigs and drilling and resevoir well digging is at an all time high....
Albeit the shift on electric personal vehicles is on the upswing, oil and gas will always remain necessary for the next 10-15 years (at a minimum) for jets, airplanes, cargo ships, reactors and generators as well as construction....
 

Thoelt53

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Do u know about what’s going on in Alberta? Tons of people are losing they’re job
Correct me if I am wrong, but I don’t believe that is due to a “dying oil industry.”

From what I gather, the job losses in Alberta are due to low crude prices in 2015/2016. Is it not more costly to extract crude from the oil sands, rather than the Gulf or the Middle East?

Sorry for contributing to the derailment of the thread.
 

Thoelt53

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Hi everyone,

I'd like to ask what you think about the following business idea, which a colleague of mine has come up with several scientists here in France :

1. The problem that needs solving : Fossil fuel prices are spiking up again. The OPEC oil cartel has recently agreed to limit oil production to hike the price ; natural gas, usually imported from Russia, is very expensive in Europe (especially for industries), and coal is also becoming more and more expensive. The rapid economic growth of China and India and their insatiable demand for energy will only put further pressure on fossil fuel prices.

Besides, oil and gas supplies are unreliable. Most of the world's oil (or at least Europe's) comes from the Middle East, where a new war between the regional players (or between the US and Iran) could erupt anytime. Most of Europe's gas comes from Russia, which frequently uses it as a political weapon. This is further bad news for European industry.

Finally, a number of European (incl. French and German) governments intend to take radical steps to curb CO2 emissions in order to slow down global warming. France has a carbon tax, currently standing at 14 EUR/metric ton of CO2 emissions, to be hiked to 50 EUR/ton in 2020 and 140 EUR/ton in 2030.

And, of course, in Europe we have a Cap-and-Trade system for emissions, as does California and some northeastern US states. Buying CO2 emission permits is costly for businesses.

All of this is bad news for energy-intensive industries such as electric power plants or the steel, cement, concrete, and petrochemical industry.

2. The solution : to capture their CO2 emissions (from the chimneys of their industrial plants) using filters, then to transport the CO2 through pipes (with the aid of pumps) to a "bioreactor" (essentially an aquarium full of algae enclosed in a small greenhouse) next to, or on the site of, such an industrial plant. Therein, the CO2 would be transformed into oxygen and carbon, which would then be liquified, enriched with biomass from the algae, and then furnished back to the customer as liquid industrial fuel. There'd also be secondary (agroalimentary) products which would be resold to farmers at 28 EUR/kg.

3. Control : my friend's friends from the university developed this technology and hold the copyright for it; we would start a company together to bring this invention to the market. I would personally be responsible for selling it to customers across Europe (I speak four languages).

4. Scale : This would start with a first contract from a mid-sized entity, such as a cement or concrete plant, but such "bioreactors" could eventually be set up at, or simply sold to, industrial facilities all across Europe (indeed, the industrialized world).

5. Time : we would only need to spend time pitching our idea to investors (banks, business angels, etc.) and then to industrial customers. To operate a bioreactor, we would hire staff.

6. Entry : the barriers for entry are big and twofold : financial and technological. Financial, because building the first bioreactor would require a significant up-front investment before we can bill our first customer. Technological, bc not everyone can develop such technology.

From my POV, there are only two problems, although they are serious problems for me :

A) My friend, who is the project director and studying in the same class at the business school as me, has just told me that we will sell biomass energy to the principal customer at a price below what it will cost us to produce, and that our main revenue, covering all the costs, will come mainly from the sale of those secondary, agricultural products from algae.
B) My friend has really been unwilling (or unable) to provide me with the complete numbers (operating costs, fixed costs, profit margins, prices to charge the customers, etc.) of the future business's finances.

What do you guys think ?
Does all of this actually reduce net CO2 production? Including CO2 produced in the manufacture of this biofuel?

What pollutants are produced by the combustion of this biofuel? What about during the manufacturing process? Carcinogens? Are there environmental risks involved?

I have nothing of value to offer you in the form of guidance or advice, but I did have some questions. Questions that I hope you already know the answers to,as I imagine your prospective customers will be asking the same, and then some.
 
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Niptuck MD

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Do u know about what’s going on in Alberta? Tons of people are losing they’re job

Maybe because Trudeau is against it and wants to join the green revolution LOL.

I cant speak on behalf of canada. However in bayou and Louisiana, Oklahoma, Texas it is thriving. Albeit, oil and gas is regional and involves a significant amount of political backing it will never be a dying industry. It will always be an integral part of economy....
 

sparechange

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Correct me if I am wrong, but I don’t believe that is due to a “dying oil industry.”

From what I gather, the job losses in Alberta are due to low crude prices in 2015/2016. Is it not more costly to extract crude from the oil sands, rather than the Gulf or the Middle East?

Sorry for contributing to the derailment of the thread.
Maybe so, I just see the trend on the west coast of Canada people down here are crying over the oil rigs and over 40k jobs vanishing. Here all the pothead hippies are all over the renewable energy bandwagon and I’m making a guess that the industry will explode in the next decade or so, only a matter of time we have electric everything, didn’t Tesla just come out with an electric truck? Don’t see why we can’t have electric planes in the future.
 

MidwestLandlord

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Do u know about what’s going on in Alberta? Tons of people are losing they’re job

Western Canada produces massive amounts of crude oil, far more than the whole of Canada needs (to the tune of an excess 800,000 barrels per day)

However, due to lack of pipelines going east, that crude is stuck out west.

Environmental concerns at the federal government level have continually blocked the building of new pipelines that would bring that crude east, so Canada imports large amounts of crude and refined petroleum products from the USA, Russia, and the Middle East...simply to supply the east side of the country.

Canada would be energy independent if the pipelines were built, and a net exporter of crude.

Meanwhile, the Canadian crude out west is exported into the USA, making Canada the United States' largest supplier of crude oil (next to the USA itself).

Crude oil supplies in the USA have been building up to a peak of 1,284,000 thousand barrels in early October 2017, and have started to come down. (down roughly 4,000 thousand barrels from it's high)

Excess supply in the USA lead to higher supply in western Canada. High supply combined with lowering demand (USA and Canadian crude use is down for the first time since WW2) leads to less oil being produced in western Canada...which leads to a loss of jobs.

TL;DR

This is a regional supply and demand issue, not the dying of an industry.

(also, this is directly related to what I do for a living, so I know quite a bit about this)
 
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sparechange

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I guess I’ll keep quiet now lol
 

MidwestLandlord

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I guess I’ll keep quiet now lol

Haha, I wasn't trying to be a jerk.

Just making the point that there are macro level supply and demand issues, combined with macro level government policies that are getting these Canadians layed off at the oil rigs.

That's the risk with an industry that is so highly regulated.

In fact, that was my first thought with the OP's proposition, is that he would be building a business on the back of a government regulation that could change at anytime. Huge loss of control. Companies would drop most CO2 pollution controls in a heartbeat if the government(s) would allow it.
 

NewYorkCity

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I have a very strong feeling this WILL NOT WORK.

I'm a degreed petroleum engineer and there's one major problem I see:

It sounds way too expensive. You need to make sure this is going to be profitable before you even start doing it.

It will cost more than you think to do and then you need to be churning a profit (are there cheaper sources of CO2?).

If you figure this part out and have it nailed down though it sounds like an excellent idea worth starting a co around.
 
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