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How do you evaluate if an idea is worth pursuing?

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SirSquidLicker

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Hello Fastlaners!

I have an idea for a business but am struggling a bit with self doubt if this is something worth pursuing. It's a product for construction, something I notice many companies build themselves from scrap. On one of my jobsites, I walked around and took pictures of probably 30 different variations of this product that they hand made (it's a very large jobsite). I talked to people who had them and confirmed they were all hand made and not a product they bought.

There's only one item on the market that is close to this product, and it's way over built. Cost over $450, shipping on most sites that sell it is another $400, and it's 69lbs in the package... I feel like I could easily market my version for $150, unsure of shipping costs but it would definitely weigh under 20lbs, probably closer to 10-15 if even. It's a bulky item though. I have to figure out the cost, but I can't imagine it being more than $50/piece once scaled. Could even be a lot less.

I know, sounds great. What's the problem?

First, there's essentially zero SEO for this product. I think it would be all marketed with ads online or mail campaigns directly to contractors.

Second, I don't know how large the actual market is for this. I think largely this product would be bought by companies themselves, but probably only by bigger companies. It's a one time purchase, I don't see many being repeat customers except to scale up for their crews themselves.

With that in mind, my main concern is investing a lot of time and money into a business that in the end, at best, maybe just covers my bills. I'm not convinced this is a product that will scale to millions, but honestly, I don't even know how to begin to evaluate that. I could easily see it being underwhelming, and also selling a lot. I guess it depends a lot also on profit margins. I'm also not sure if this is something I can get the ball rolling on then sell for shorter term cash, to use for a next idea. Or to license out to a manufacturer that already makes similar products and sells to the same customers, freeing up my time.

My plan for this is essentially to build a 3d CAD of the product, send it to manufacturers (I think I can do this without explaining exactly what it's for and they wouldn't know, so the idea is safe), see the price points of manufacturing them at different quantities (Such as 100, 10,000, 100,000), and making sure I have enough margins to be profitable with all the overhead.

I can do the same thing with 3D printers, and get maybe 10 of these made with 3D printing. Might be expensive, but could probably sell them for break even to test market demand of this product. This would confirm people are willing to buy a product that they already make themselves. For all I know, companies are fine spending labor hours and material making these themselves and don't want to buy it.

From there it's as simple as building a website for it and getting ads going. "Simple", anyways.

I guess this post is reading more as a diary entry than anything. I'm looking for a sure fire idea that will allow me to retire, but thats probably unrealistic. Uncertainty with these ideas is probably universal.

What processes do you guys use to evaluate your idea and figure out if it's worth pursuing?
 
Yup, did it. Got a C. But I am also submitting inputs that I’m not really sure of the accuracy. For example, I don’t know how to find out the potential market for this. There’s no comparable product. I could be looking at 1000 sales a year or 100,000. I have no idea. That would change the rating quite a bit.
 
Hello Fastlaners!

I have an idea for a business but am struggling a bit with self doubt if this is something worth pursuing. It's a product for construction, something I notice many companies build themselves from scrap. On one of my jobsites, I walked around and took pictures of probably 30 different variations of this product that they hand made (it's a very large jobsite). I talked to people who had them and confirmed they were all hand made and not a product they bought.
...

What processes do you guys use to evaluate your idea and figure out if it's worth pursuing?
What type of construction? I'm in residential construction. If you need to bounce some ideas around just send me a message.

Rather than going to all the effort of CAD drawings, finding a manufacturer, etc., you need to test your idea and validate the market first. Find a local shop and make a prototype. It doesn't have to be from CAD, but that may help the shop. Take the prototype to the jobsites. Ask the people to use it and give you feedback. Ask them how much they would pay for something like that. Understand how much time/money it saves the company and how many self made versions are on each jobsite. Understand the value proposition of why your manufactured one it's better, and worth buying compared to the self-made versions on all the jobsites now.
 
What type of construction? I'm in residential construction. If you need to bounce some ideas around just send me a message.

Rather than going to all the effort of CAD drawings, finding a manufacturer, etc., you need to test your idea and validate the market first. Find a local shop and make a prototype. It doesn't have to be from CAD, but that may help the shop. Take the prototype to the jobsites. Ask the people to use it and give you feedback. Ask them how much they would pay for something like that. Understand how much time/money it saves the company and how many self made versions are on each jobsite. Understand the value proposition of why your manufactured one it's better, and worth buying compared to the self-made versions on all the jobsites now.
Commercial. Not sure if many residential companies would use it.

The CAD would be very simple. Planning on teaching myself the basics and making the design myself. There’s not much to the item tbh. To validate the market I’d get it 3d printed in small quantities to sell and test from there.
 
Commercial. Not sure if many residential companies would use it.

The CAD would be very simple. Planning on teaching myself the basics and making the design myself. There’s not much to the item tbh. To validate the market I’d get it 3d printed in small quantities to sell and test from there.
It sounds like you already had a plan to validate your idea. Don't wait for people here to validate it. Just start and get on it!
 

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