Probably time to ban travel/trade outbound from China till they get this sorted out.
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Free registration at the forum removes this block.It may not kill us - but I'm interested to see if there's a bigger economic impact (which may, in turn, kill us )
As someone who lives in Australia our economy is hopelessly tied to Chinese business/tourism - our stock market dropped $36 billion on open yesterday morning....
The media spent the last month touting our 'world record breaking' stock market highs (usually a good indicator of a coming crash), we have more short term debt than ever before and some of the most expensive property and living costs in the first world.
Couple all this with the fact that half the country is on fire and in drought, we're having a great time down here.
The thing is, modern macroeconomic theory was mostly developed in the 1980s-90s, it didn't take into account how interconnected everything would become with the internet. There are parts of the world that didn't get the effects of the 2008 market crash until TWO YEARS LATER! If we go, it will be interesting to see what else then goes...
tldr; The Coronavirus may give you the sniffles, but it might kill the Australian economy
Probably time to ban travel/trade outbound from China till they get this sorted out.
This is extremely interesting to me. I’ve been wondering when the fires effects would be seen.. freaking fire is covering an area almost as big as the US. I have two dear friends in Australia and my heart goes out to you. If it does “kill” the economy in Australia.. how bad are we talking about? And which countries rely on Australia?
What kind of expert would have those answers?
I can see it now... people dropshipping masks from Aliexpress to paranoid westerners, only to end up spreading the infection from the factory workers in China.
It means that of the resolved cases, half the people died and half recovered. How it will shake out in the coming weeks, we're just going to have to wait and see, but it sure doesn't look like a 3% fatality rate.
Simply comparing the current deaths to recoveries would significantly over-estimate the death rate, if it kills quickly but takes a while to be pronounced "fully recovered."
Possible...if they leave body residue Like sweat on packaging. I dunno if studies have looked into this yet though.I can see it now... people dropshipping masks from Aliexpress to paranoid westerners, only to end up spreading the infection from the factory workers in China.
Here's my observation, as someone who does not consume mainstream media.
I sense that people have real fear about this, but I can't tell if that fear is justified or just something manufactured by skillful fearmongers.
The media has really heightened and honed their ability to breed real fear of diseases over the past few years.
Fear is naturally contagious, but there will always be those people who shrug it off and say, "Meh, whatever. It's not going to be as bad as they're trying to get you to think."
I'm one of those people. But it seems that we have gotten thinned out by the media's increasing ability to convince a huge number of people that it WILL be as bad or worse than we think.
I remember discussing Ebola a few years back with a co-worker who was genuinely terrified of Ebola. His attitude was the same as the one in this thread title: "Is Ebola going to kill us all?" I realized then, "Wow, people actually believe this!" This guy was not unstable or just a wuss. He was a manly dude, earning very high wages, well liked, extremely good looking, and overall someone who was enjoying life and fun to be around.
I remember SARS being a thing. I went to China in January of 2004, and lots of people were still wearing masks. I've noticed periodically the contrast between how EVERYONE in China seemed to be adopting mask wearing as a normal thing, and how very few people here do so. It seems to me that China has been MORE successful at breeding that fear population-wide, but we are catching up.
I think this fear becomes easier and easier to breed because every successive event taps into the fear that was already aroused in the last round and just layers on top of it. So for instance, all the fear that built up in my coworker who was afraid of Ebola will probably revive in full force, and now coronavirus will just build on that.
Is it possible to experience a worldwide pandemic? Yeah.
Is it likely that this is it? I don't think so.
Will it affect some people? Yes. Will it be heartbreaking for them? Yes.
But car accidents affect people every day, and we're not terrified to drive our cars. In fact, we tend to think, "It won't happen to me."
Car accidents cause about 40,000 deaths per year in the US [source]. Worldwide, there are an estimated 1.24 million car accident deaths per year [source].
I can see us freaking out and feeling like "it might affect me" if the numbers approach car accident numbers.
I can see us progressing to think, "it might kill us all" if the numbers rise to double or triple that.
Until the death toll for this comes closer to car accident numbers, though, I think it's all just a bunch of hype and manipulation.
100 years ago 50M died in the 1918 Pandemic. It killed 3x the people WW1 did. We are about due for another one.
Accelerating infections:
China coronavirus spread is accelerating, Xi Jinping warns
China's president tells a high-level meeting that the country faces a "grave situation".www.bbc.com
They are treating an infected guy in Seattle using a robot:
A man diagnosed with Wuhan coronavirus near Seattle is being treated largely by a robot | CNN
The first person diagnosed with the Wuhan coronavirus in the United States is being treated by a few medical workers and a robot.www.cnn.com
"Plague Inc" is best selling iOS App:
'Plague Inc.' Becomes Top-Selling iOS App After Coronavirus Outbreak In China; Dev Comments
The developer of “Plague Inc.,” a real-time strategy simulation game that involves the use of pathogens to eliminate all life on earth, has spoken up in response to how people look to the game as a source of information and comfort during the outbreak of Coronavirus in Wuhan, China.www.ibtimes.com
"Plague Inc" is best selling iOS App:
'Plague Inc.' Becomes Top-Selling iOS App After Coronavirus Outbreak In China; Dev Comments
The developer of “Plague Inc.,” a real-time strategy simulation game that involves the use of pathogens to eliminate all life on earth, has spoken up in response to how people look to the game as a source of information and comfort during the outbreak of Coronavirus in Wuhan, China.www.ibtimes.com
Manufacturers in China are being told not to work until 10 February.
For those who are sourcing from there, make sure your customers know about potential supply issues as a result.
Because you can exercise some control over how it impacts you, or your odds of getting it. At the bare minimum, you should have a few weeks of food/water/supplies on hand for yourself, your family, and your pets.Why caring about something that is not remotely under your control?
And all the pharma companies are the ones ordering and distributing these masks while developing pills that are just good enough to keep us alive, and that we will need to take for the rest of our lives to survive.I can see it now... people dropshipping masks from Aliexpress to paranoid westerners, only to end up spreading the infection from the factory workers in China.
You make some good points. That is one crazy video.You know how all those disaster movies open? With panic in a non-Western country? And the movie's main character glances at the TV in passing and says, "Man, look at that. How odd..."
What happens after that? The disaster hits home for the main character. And this is when those of us in the audience smugly say, "Hey, that main character should've realized something was up."
The scenes in this video are not from a movie.
(Edited because I tried to imbed the video and failed miserably.)
There's this great book, "One Second After," which offers a fictional, yet realistic, portrayal over how basic systems break down in the event of an emergency. In the book, the event is an EMP. But the lessons are universal. Don't count on the government to save you if things go haywire. If this becomes a pandemic, the whole world will be impacted. Who will ride to your rescue? Who will deliver your food? Who will take care of your kids?
The scenes in this video are not from a movie.
Honestly I just hope I get my package lol. Ordered some stuff on Aliexpress and I swear they ought to ship it.
Ahh crap. I knew I shouldn't have ordered my stuff now.Factories have already been closed for Chinese New Years, and many are being told by the government (including mine) to not return to work until Feb 10. This could easily be extended if the situation worsens.
Delays will be highly likely.
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