Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

[Timmy C]

Is this the most viewed thread on the forum? If not, it's gotta be a top 5.

And it's essentially speculation at that. Even in this little corner of the world where people come together united under a shared mindset of "CENTS" and fastlane philosophy, something that is essentially 100% out of our control is the reigning topic.

To me, this is on par with downloading Draft Kings or hanging out at /r/wallstreetbets. Like what the F*ck are we doing here people?

Outside of some very basic knowledge/research of how all of this works and what the future potential might be, none of us should be wasting time participating in this. It's chasing money at it's finest, every second you spend analyzing, researching crypto is contributing nothing towards producing something of value.

It'd be very interesting to hear this thread shift to selling shovels; eg, ideas and businesses that can cleanup the environmental mess that crypto contributes to.

There is plenty of investing/stock market threads/ real estate threads on the forum as well, I don't see them get flamed like this asset class does.

I think it's been repeated to death that crypto is just an investment, it isn't some special snow flake.

''The stock markets down, better go shit on any investors in that thread as well, and repeat stuff people already know''

Everyone gets it.

You wanna know how much time I spend researching crypto crap? Zero now. Hardly ever.

Its like the vegan thread here, but the investment type.

"This is an entrepreneur forum, why are we talking about eating plants"

Same energy.

 

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[biophase]

lol.

Price today $67k, to get to $500k over 15 years …that’s 7.46x gain.

Over 15 years!!!

And you want to go all-in?

I don’t understand posts like yours.

That’s a 15% return a year for 15 years. I think many of us would take a major investment in that if guaranteed.

Not sure what you need consider something a good investment.

 

[Ing]

That’s a 15% return a year for 15 years. I think many of us would take a major investment in that if guaranteed.

Not sure what you need consider something a good investment.

you get guarantee on your investments? Like RE, stocks, businesses?

 

[MitchC]

you get guarantee on your investments? Like RE, stocks, businesses?

When you think about it they are assuming a guarantee that money will continue to become more and more worthless.

Not a bad assumption but the risk the problems with our money are solved another way is there to consider.

Either way you’d be better off in 15 years.

 

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[Antifragile]

Stf is no exact prediction and the dimensions allways were right. Math don’t lie.
But doesn’t matter! Everything ok.

Look up Power Law and how well it matches BTC pricing.

Just remember 2 standard deviations are applicable and the spread is wild.

That’s a 15% return a year for 15 years. I think many of us would take a major investment in that if guaranteed.

Not sure what you need consider something a good investment.

You are being disingenuous from the start. Your initial post you didn't genuinely want to debate price or investment expectations. You helicoptered into a space you know little about to quickly pass on judgement. That's it.

But I'll play, just for the fun of it:

1. Most people on this forum are dirt poor. Few even have properties. And you are telling them that 15% per year is the way to riches. As if that wasn't discussed ad nauseam to be in contrast to stating your own business a very poor decision.
2. If you are already in business, and someone told you you get 15% per year flat but you won't see a penny for 15 years... You MUST sell everything you own to get this and have no liquidity for 15 years. Would you do it? Sell your dog collar amazon FBA, house and rent for 15% per year locked in for 15 years!? Clearly you wouldn't. So why would you go in here with your silly mockery of anyone debating the future of BTC price?
3. If you have a business, don't you generate at least 15% per year on it? And if you aren't, what the hell are you doing wrong? It stands to reason that making 15% isn't good at all.

Ahh... but of course, you just wanted to point out that the price of BTC in 15 years being $500k is not guaranteed. Well... in that case you did a shit job being genuine or helpful.

---

Blockchain technology may well be the future Internet and there so many good reasons to think that it is already disrupting the "status quo" corporate models. And if you come onto this thread and think $BTC or "crypto" doesn't matter, it's just for fan-bois to gamble, you are ignoring the real prize.

"If protocol networks are democracies, corporate networks are dictatorships." (Dixon, 2024)

Translation: Google, Amazon, Meta - they own everything, unlike in blockchain where ownership is decentralized. Decisions are made by the owners.

The big giants dictate how you must behave for your landscaping business to get customers. Misbehave, get lost from Google search or pay through the nose for advertising.

"Imagine if the clothes you bought could be worn only in the venue you bought them in. What if you couldn't resell or reinvest in your house or car? Or what if you had to change your name wherever you went? This is the digital world of corporate networks." (Dixon, 2024)

Blockchain shifts the control to software. Similar to...

"like the U.S. Constitution, provide a helpful analogy. Constitutions formalized the shift of national governance from individual rulers to written law. In the same vein, blockchains shift network governance from corporate management to written code" (Dixon, 2024)

Here is another way to put it:
"The corporate model is like a highly managed theme park that builds the whole experience end to end. The blockchain network is like a city that starts with core building blocks and encourages bottom-up entrepreneurship." (Dixon, 2024)

And here is a fun fact:

"When the Pew Research Center, a prominent polling firm, asked Americans in October 2002 if they would adopt broadband, the majority said no. People mostly used the internet for email and web "surfing." Did it really need to be faster? The mainstream consensus was that the internet was cool, sure, but it had limited uses and probably wasn't a good place to build a livelihood. The market crash proved that." (Dixon 2024)


If none of the above interests or excites you, if none of the above makes you scream "C" in "CENTS" ... then prepare to be that "deer in the headlights" posting here how you didn't see it coming.

 

[Dark Water]

There is plenty of investing/stock market threads/ real estate threads on the forum as well, I don't see them get flamed like this asset class does.

I think it's been repeated to death that crypto is just an investment, it isn't some special snow flake.

''The stock markets down, better go shit on any investors in that thread as well, and repeat stuff people already know''

Everyone gets it.

You wanna know how much time I spend researching crypto crap? Zero now. Hardly ever.

Its like the vegan thread here, but the investment type.

"This is an entrepreneur forum, why are we talking about eating plants"

Same energy.

My commentary/observation is not really about crypto as an asset class or a business tool but the mindset behind it. It's easy to play the "investment" line but there's almost 200 pages of /r/wallstreetbets-style drivel here that speaks for itself.

I have some relatives that play scratch off tickets. It's just $2 or $5 here or there, doesn't cost them much. Maybe a $25 one on the Christmas tree each year. They don't research their scratch off tickets either, just buy them from the store on a whim. Much of this thread is the same and it stems from the same mindset. It's just fun and play money but there's a little sliver of hope in everyone's mind that they'll get lucky and hit the next boom.

And another mere observation: you mentioned spending zero time researching crypto but when I was jumping through random pages on this thread to see the general vibe, you were on every single one. Seems a bit disingenuous. As you said it yourself, "so balls deep in this haha."

There is a level of fanaticism in this thread where the dial is tilted way more towards speculation than CENTS. That isn't the case with any of the real estate or vegan threads.

 

[Dark Water]

One can only hope that one day the vast majority of "poor and degenerates" on this forum can reach the same level of success as art collector, bitcoin connoisseur Antifragile. The one and only.

I am glad that you find a wild west sandbox that you want to play in and get your hands dirty; where you can twiddle meme coins between your thumbs and if Bitcoin shoots to $1 million it would have no impact on your life. We all have our hobbies.

I am not connecting the dots on how Blockchain will siphon power away from Amazon, Google, and Meta and put that back in the hands of the average joe. I am not sure if I am interested in learning how to connect those dots but if it's true, then great.

With that said, I came in here with a very simple observation that I was surprised this thread is essentially the most popular one on the forum. There is an undertone of zeal, disrespect, and fanaticism that makes discussing this with you wholly unpleasant. Since we're quoting APA style now I'll leave one thing here before seeing myself out of this thread:

"The trouble is that convincingly debunking all the pro-crypto rationales at the same time is impossible. Each rebuttal can itself be rebutted, and by the time you finally wrap your head around why, say, the technical complexity of interacting with blockchains inevitably creates demand for the very intermediaries crypto is supposed to obviate, you will have forgotten whether you believe the hype around zero-knowledge proofs or Layer 2 blockchains. Crypto’s profusion of half-baked rationales, long a source of derision and mockery, turns out to be perhaps its most powerful secret weapon. Different constituencies have different reasons for buying in, which makes the argument for crypto resilient. It, too, has no single point of failure." (Edelman 2024)

 

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[AceVentures]

You are being disingenuous from the start. Your initial post you didn't genuinely want to debate price or investment expectations. You helicoptered into a space you know little about to quickly pass on judgement. That's it.

Not what I read. Was imo a valid question. And from what I've seen from bio, I wouldn't say it's a space he knows little about.

But I'll play, just for the fun of it:

1. Most people on this forum are dirt poor. Few even have properties. And you are telling them that 15% per year is the way to riches. As if that wasn't discussed ad nauseam to be in contrast to stating your own business a very poor decision.
2. If you are already in business, and someone told you you get 15% per year flat but you won't see a penny for 15 years... You MUST sell everything you own to get this and have no liquidity for 15 years. Would you do it? Sell your dog collar amazon FBA, house and rent for 15% per year locked in for 15 years!? Clearly you wouldn't. So why would you go in here with your silly mockery of anyone debating the future of BTC price?
3. If you have a business, don't you generate at least 15% per year on it? And if you aren't, what the hell are you doing wrong? It stands to reason that making 15% isn't good at all.

From what I understood, the point was that historically a guaranteed 15% return compounded for 15 years is a great bet from an investment standpoint.

Clearly, you can make more than that from your own business. But from an investment standpoint, from a passive, throw your money into an asset and fetch a return on it, how could anybody deny that a guaranteed 15% for 15 years is an opportunity many wouldn't jump on? Look at long-term bonds rates and market size as a clue.

And lastly, only because I feel it's in fairness to point out, I don't think Bio or anybody else here is arguing that 15% per year is the way to the riches.

You seem a little over the edge from what I can tell from your past few posts. What gives?

Blockchain technology may well be the future Internet and there so many good reasons to think that it is already disrupting the "status quo" corporate models. And if you come onto this thread and think $BTC or "crypto" doesn't matter, it's just for fan-bois to gamble, you are ignoring the real prize.

"If protocol networks are democracies, corporate networks are dictatorships." (Dixon, 2024)

Translation: Google, Amazon, Meta - they own everything, unlike in blockchain where ownership is decentralized. Decisions are made by the owners.

The big giants dictate how you must behave for your landscaping business to get customers. Misbehave, get lost from Google search or pay through the nose for advertising.

"Imagine if the clothes you bought could be worn only in the venue you bought them in. What if you couldn't resell or reinvest in your house or car? Or what if you had to change your name wherever you went? This is the digital world of corporate networks." (Dixon, 2024)

Blockchain shifts the control to software. Similar to...

"like the U.S. Constitution, provide a helpful analogy. Constitutions formalized the shift of national governance from individual rulers to written law. In the same vein, blockchains shift network governance from corporate management to written code" (Dixon, 2024)

Here is another way to put it:
"The corporate model is like a highly managed theme park that builds the whole experience end to end. The blockchain network is like a city that starts with core building blocks and encourages bottom-up entrepreneurship." (Dixon, 2024)

And here is a fun fact:

"When the Pew Research Center, a prominent polling firm, asked Americans in October 2002 if they would adopt broadband, the majority said no. People mostly used the internet for email and web "surfing." Did it really need to be faster? The mainstream consensus was that the internet was cool, sure, but it had limited uses and probably wasn't a good place to build a livelihood. The market crash proved that." (Dixon 2024)

To play devil's advocate, and because I previously held the same position you outline, only to later change my mind:

In theory, the point you make about open protocols being more democratic than corporate networks is valid.

But in practice, there is a lot more nuance than the average market participant considers or even cares to question.

For instance, most of the DAOs (decentralized autonomous organizations) I was so excited about in 2020 proved to be BS. The truth it, as is evidenced likewise in modern democratic election cycles, few people have the bandwidth, interest or capacity to participate and steer the network. How many people actually show up to vote? In federal elections maybe more. But what about the countless state, city and municipal elections? Most people haven't got a clue, and they don't care.

In DAOs I observed the same effect. People "delegate" their votes to whoever best markets themselves as their representative. So you end up with the same corruption incentives as we have in American politics.

An even more important criticism that deserves attention is the concept of wealth inequality in crypto. Despite the heavy emphasis on decentralization in cryptocurrencies, the wealth distribution remains in-line with the real-world economies.

An important statistical construct used to numerically describe the spread of wealth is the Gini coefficient. A Gini value of 1 for wealth concentration would denote that a single household controls all of the country’s wealth. Similarly, a Gini value of 0 would represent the perfect distribution of wealth in the country.

A study characterizing wealth inequality in cryptocurrencies found that in 2021, 0.01% of the addresses contain over 58.21% of all Bitcoins in circulation. They also report that a single user holds over 0.78% of all Bitcoin that are currently in circulation. In Bitcoin, the top 100 addresses contain over 13.52% of all Bitcoins.

The findings place BTC's Gini Coefficient close to or above that of North Korea.

How well does that bode for wealth distribution? Decentralization? Security risks?

Now I'm not saying I don't like BTC, that it's a bad asset class, that it doesn't deserve a place in someone's portfolio, that it doesn't address some of the problems with our existing monetary system, that it's a scam or blablabla.

I'm just saying that it's easy and very popular to paint BTC and crypto as some sort of Noah's Ark among a collapsing monetary system. But they're not without flaw, and anybody who fails to look at some of these nuances will miss the bigger picture.

In 2020, I was ready to die on the hill of crypto as the savior of our corrupt institutions. In 2024, I have a more balanced perspective. I'm still as opportunistic as ever, and participate in any/all markets when I see an opportunity. But I'm no longer an absolutist who blindly believes BTC or some distributed ledger is the solution to our problems.

I think it's important for everyone in this thread to at least give some thought to these unpopular ideas.

 

[GPM]

The world needs blockchain to keep the integrity of our internet intact. As it stands it is literally being scrubbed before our very eyes, and topics and opinions that don't agree with the current narrative are being buried or removed.

We need a way to keep information intact and forever. Just wait until AI bots are running around finding data that big government doesn't like and scrubs it. It's probably already happening.

Google is amazing for finding things like the rotor thickness on a particular car and how much wear they can have before needing to replaced. But want to find information on how corrupt a nation was in 2016 and what "the west" thought of said nation less than 10 years ago? Nope, that info is gone!

We need crypto tech for more than fun coins to trade and things we can argue about.

 

[Kevin88660]

Is this the most viewed thread on the forum? If not, it's gotta be a top 5.

And it's essentially speculation at that. Even in this little corner of the world where people come together united under a shared mindset of "CENTS" and fastlane philosophy, something that is essentially 100% out of our control is the reigning topic.

To me, this is on par with downloading Draft Kings or hanging out at /r/wallstreetbets. Like what the F*ck are we doing here people?

Outside of some very basic knowledge/research of how all of this works and what the future potential might be, none of us should be wasting time participating in this. It's chasing money at it's finest, every second you spend analyzing, researching crypto is contributing nothing towards producing something of value.

It'd be very interesting to hear this thread shift to selling shovels; eg, ideas and businesses that can cleanup the environmental mess that crypto contributes to.

There is actually businesses opportunities around crypto. But few in the forum is interested. I don’t know why.

I do have a semi-active youtube channel, with monthly subscription offered on airdrop hunting tips.

I also had an idea with another friend on launching a crypto token focusing on SEC compliance from start. I noticed that most projects have issues due to poor design. Once they grow big SEC starts to attack them for fine.

Unfortunately or Fortunately I right now do not have time to work on them further, at least for now. Most of my time is consumed in my core business involving succession planning with baby boomers.

 

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[biophase]

You are being disingenuous from the start. Your initial post you didn't genuinely want to debate price or investment expectations. You helicoptered into a space you know little about to quickly pass on judgement. That's it.

All I said is why do people make predictions on prices but don’t their money where their mouth is.

I’m not looking to debate the price of btc. That statement could have been made about a stock or real estate and I would have said the same thing.

This had nothing to do with crypto. Somehow it got your underwear all bunched up.

Ahh... but of course, you just wanted to point out that the price of BTC in 15 years being $500k is not guaranteed. Well... in that case you did a shit job being genuine or helpful.

Wow you totally didn’t read my post. I said nothing about the price of BTC. If the OP believed with he posted, he would act on it.

I’m just calling out stupid posts that are all talk.

If none of the above interests or excites you, if none of the above makes you scream "C" in "CENTS" ... then prepare to be that "deer in the headlights" posting here how you didn't see it coming.

Sure tell me I told you so in 2039.

 

[biophase]

But I'll play, just for the fun of it:

1. Most people on this forum are dirt poor. Few even have properties. And you are telling them that 15% per year is the way to riches. As if that wasn't discussed ad nauseam to be in contrast to stating your own business a very poor decision.

Come on, you know if this were true you’d be borrowing at 8% to get the spread.

I could get very rich on 7% of other people’s money.

I guess I must make my posts relate to the dirt poor people on the forum now?

 

[Timmy C]

My commentary/observation is not really about crypto as an asset class or a business tool but the mindset behind it. It's easy to play the "investment" line but there's almost 200 pages of /r/wallstreetbets-style drivel here that speaks for itself.

I have some relatives that play scratch off tickets. It's just $2 or $5 here or there, doesn't cost them much. Maybe a $25 one on the Christmas tree each year. They don't research their scratch off tickets either, just buy them from the store on a whim. Much of this thread is the same and it stems from the same mindset. It's just fun and play money but there's a little sliver of hope in everyone's mind that they'll get lucky and hit the next boom.

And another mere observation: you mentioned spending zero time researching crypto but when I was jumping through random pages on this thread to see the general vibe, you were on every single one. Seems a bit disingenuous. As you said it yourself, "so balls deep in this haha."

There is a level of fanaticism in this thread where the dial is tilted way more towards speculation than CENTS. That isn't the case with any of the real estate or vegan threads.

I agree with alot of what you said about the majority of the thread being speculation.

Respectfully you didn't really read what I said, or I didn't explain it properly.

I said, I spend zero researching crypto these days and that's true. A couple of years ago I read many books on bitcoin and crypto and learnt a fair bit about ETH also. The end.

The fact that I enjoy the shitposting which a few of us have a laugh over on the thread isn't a big deal man.

 

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[The Sandman]

 

[Mr. Tycoon]

Does anyone see a scenario that bitcoin is worth any less than $500,000 USD in 15 years time? I don't.

Money is worthless these days.

BTC would be worth close or more to $15,000,000 in 15 years time. Let’s be more realistic.

 

[Mr. Tycoon]

lol.

Price today $67k, to get to $500k over 15 years …that’s 7.46x gain.

Over 15 years!!!

And you want to go all-in?

I don’t understand posts like yours.



I’m waiting for people like you to come here, shit on what I’m doing! That’s really useful.


Right, because you said so… well all jump off right now and never look at a new emerging technology and how it might interact with our real business. Sounds reasonable.




You are clearly an expert. We love experts.

Tell us more about the mess we’ve created!

The guy is clearly confused. Another guy mixing BTC with crypto, again.WTF.

Probably he lost money in shitcoins and blockchain projects in the past.

Now he caught bitcoin derangement syndrome.

 

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[AceVentures]

Had been meaning to buy ETH for a while now.

I confirm my buy.

~30 minutes later there's news that the SEC will likely approve an ETF, followed by a +15% god candle.

Meanwhile I have friends who have been trying to time their trades over the past few months only to get chopped up left and right.

Sometimes you just get insanely lucky.

Now just waiting for a pullback so the dweebs can come out of their hiding and fling poop at my trade.

YES YOU NERDS I KNOW THIS IS A CASINO.

 

[Timmy C]

We are so back people. Sharon in HR might go for me after all!

 

[Antifragile]

CENTS is the best framework I've come across in over a decade. I applied it a few times already to improve my own decisions on business and resulted in substantial improvements. Anyone who treats "crypto" as casino is missing the whole point of what CENTS teaches.

To SCALE, you have 3 main ways:

1. People - employees, oldest and hardest leverage there is.
2. Money - investors, debt: it rewards judgement, good judgement - Warren Buffet made his fortune this way. It's far better way to scale, as it's a superior leverage to people leverage.
3. Technology - adding a product at zero additional cost: think movies, books, games, software. This is how Zuck, Gates, Musk, Bezos made their fortunes. This is the best leverage today for scaling a business.

Combining all three is how billions are made.

Coding is exceptionally popular here because this forum exists as @MJ DeMarco used #3 to scale his business and sell. It's also why the main sponsor is @Fox teaching how to build websites (which to this day are fully decentralized - but driving traffic to them isn't).

The giants in tech did and do what they do to keep their dominance. Internet ceased to be decentralized because of their control. If you want to find anything on the web, you start with Google. If Google drops your website, your business isn't going to do a fraction of what it could. Google owns the roads that lead to your coffee shop, if they re-route traffic, you starve.

This means that most businesses that are celebrated on this forum fail typically both C & S to some extend.

What is the way out?

It is evolutionary disruption. No, blockchain won't be any kind of "saviour" (@AceVentures) in a "corrupt system" - that's utter nonsense to me. Pragmatically speaking, it's just a superior technology for where people who code and create can get better rewards for their efforts.

It's clunky today, it barely makes sense to transact on BTC as fiat is still easier by 10,000x... but KODAK invented digital photography only to go bankrupt because they missed the point of disruptive technology! Same here. It'll get better, a lot better.

Put it another way, back in 1995 no one could have predicted Twitter as a use for internet, we used dial-up! It too was clunky. And in early 2000s everyone was proven "right" for thinking that internet isn't a big deal, as dot.com was a casino too.

Translation: 99% of all blockchain applications you see today will go to zero. Yet Amazons of this world will also be born out of them today.

How is this relevant to BTC price? The thread is called - Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

It's the right place to talk about BTC price. ETF means mass adoption of this new investment asset class. That means more money flow into blockchain tech. That means better rewards for developers. Before ETF I made a prediction on this thread that BTC price would double by the end of 2024, it was at low 40k back then. My opinion was based on applying power law model to bitcoin, which surprisingly (to me) works incredibly well. But has 2 SD spread - super wide, meaning bottom looks to be in the high $20k's and top looks to be in the $150k.

More fundamentally, because this thread already has followers, I'd like to think it's now far more than just a "bitcoin/crypto" it's also about the technology.

Coming back to CENTS, I told @MTF that learning how to interact with blockchain as the next business is probably better than anything else. In other words, I'd have hoped that on this forum, instead of getting flack for anyone posting (even shit posting) here, it would be encouraged. Yet few are willing to engage, because the market isn't (wasn't) pumping enough ...

How else can I put it? A few years back, I got the itch and reached out to you @AceVentures on this topic, how did you know so much? Remember what you told me? You said to start interacting with the tech, follow the right Twitter accounts and basically, figure it out. Since then I've collected over 250 NFTs (I know, useless junk, but that's the point - education and cool JPEGs lol), participated in launches of meme coins (remember, these are just forks of blockchain, nothing complicated), provided liquidity to staking pools, swaps, interchain swaps etc.

I went down a rabbit hole and you know what I discovered?

It hasn't even started yet! This is a type of new "computer" that's creeping up but when it works, it's just marvellous. And please remember that at my most engaged, I only spent 5% of my "business time" on this, 95% of my efforts remain firmly within my own business, which is old school.

Put it another way, I believe that the combination of AI + Blockchain technologies will supercharge the spread of blockchain uses. If I was in my 20s, reading on this forum ... I'd be paying attention. There are plenty of opportunities to make a fortune in this space without gambling.

In the end, it doesn't matter what I think - to each their own.

What I wish here is that instead of people popping in and "calling out stupid posts" more people engaged in a helpful way to debate models, uses, shared cool stuff. Instead the forum lately is about washing windows/cars/whatever door knocking is latest... as a "just do anything" business advice (admittedly better than doing nothing but falls short of what it could/should be).

 

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[Kevin88660]

BTC would be worth close or more to $15,000,000 in 15 years time. Let’s be more realistic.

I don’t know how the future will look like (not going to stop me from taking a view and hence a bet)

But just to bring some historical price cycles into perspectives.

In 2011 Mike Maloney called for 10k dollar gold price. Gold hit an all time high over 2000 usd, having climbed from barely 200 at the turn of the century.

The next tens gold did nothing.

It is softwares, and cryptos in hindsight.

The hottest book in finance is probably Jim Richards’s currency war.

2012 I saw about bitcoin discussion in goldbugs forum. The concensus was that bitcoin is a scam. This is a “distraction”.

If investment world is a theatre, and the higher being “God” is a director, I noticed a pattern that he will keep changing the star roles to prevent us getting bored of the show.

I will be very surprised that if crypto remains the most exciting asset class that everyone talks about in the next ten year.

There is a copper short squeeze happening right now in the Comex market.

Not a lot of attention outside professional commodity traders.

 

[AceVentures]

It is evolutionary disruption. No, blockchain won't be any kind of "saviour" (@AceVentures) in a "corrupt system" - that's utter nonsense to me. Pragmatically speaking, it's just a superior technology for where people who code and create can get better rewards for their efforts.

How is it a superior technology for "people who code and create" to get better rewards for their efforts?

How else can I put it? A few years back, I got the itch and reached out to you @AceVentures on this topic, how did you know so much? Remember what you told me? You said to start interacting with the tech, follow the right Twitter accounts and basically, figure it out. Since then I've collected over 250 NFTs (I know, useless junk, but that's the point - education and cool JPEGs lol), participated in launches of meme coins (remember, these are just forks of blockchain, nothing complicated), provided liquidity to staking pools, swaps, interchain swaps etc.

I went down a rabbit hole and you know what I discovered?

It hasn't even started yet! This is a type of new "computer" that's creeping up but when it works, it's just marvellous. And please remember that at my most engaged, I only spent 5% of my "business time" on this, 95% of my efforts remain firmly within my own business, which is old school.

I'm glad you went down the rabbit hole. I'm sure you've learned a ton.

Put it another way, I believe that the combination of AI + Blockchain technologies will supercharge the spread of blockchain uses. If I was in my 20s, reading on this forum ... I'd be paying attention. There are plenty of opportunities to make a fortune in this space without gambling.

How? Where are these opportunities you speak of?

I'm only critical because I've been down that road. I also thought it was a "marvelous" new type of computer. I envisioned all of the creative ways smart contracts could be used.

So far, the best use of smart-contracts I've found are AMM (automated market makers). It's a genius way for people to exchange one digital asset for another without an intermediary.

Ultimately, I didn't find "all the opportunities" you speak of. I mostly found scammers, degenerates, and losers masquerading around fancy words to suck people out of their hard earned money.

Even for large networks like ETH which I still use and find valuable, I learned that with ZK cryptography you could essentially nest multiple layers down until the cost of a transactions reaches ~0 while preserving maximal levels of security, though you would sacrifice liveliness across other applications.

Meaning the business model of selling block-space on smart-contract platforms is a race to the bottom.

What about BTC and a store of value? I think it has merit. Which is why I have some for that purpose. But as I've outlined before, it isn't without flaw. For all the flack Peter Schiff gets, I think he's actually right that Gold might be a better store of value.

So where's the value? Because there clearly is some value somewhere.

The real value is in the network.
The real value is in the shared belief system among participants.
The real value is memetic.

The rest of the "global computer" and "decentralization" and all the other buzzwords is baloney for the rookies, and gospel for the zealots who get high from their own supply.

I treat it like a casino because it's largely a casino. Arguably the best invention so far with crypto has been stablecoins, which according to some is a CIA invention which allows it and other three-letter agencies to print money to fund their black ops off the books.

Maybe I went too deep down the rabbit hole. Because what I found was mostly rabbit poop.

I hope you learn more than me and prove me wrong.

 

[AceVentures]

I think distributed ledgers can be useful for public service reasons.

Imagine if we lived in a real democracy? We could put tax-payers funds on public ledgers and effectively audit how every dollar is spent.

Alas, we live in a banana republic. And in my personal opinion, the illusion of a democracy will soon come to an end.

“The illusion of freedom will continue as long as it's profitable to continue the illusion. At the point where the illusion becomes too expensive to maintain, they will just take down the scenery, they will pull back the curtains, they will move the tables and chairs out of the way and you will see the brick wall at the back of the theater.”​

Maybe I'm too jaded to think critically about the future of blockchain.

 

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[Jon822]

Maybe I went too deep down the rabbit hole. Because what I found was mostly rabbit poop.

Despite some people hoping it's chocolate, you are right: it is rabbit poop. The only "Amazons" that will emerge from crypto are Fastlane businesses that serve the space. This is very different from investing in crypto.

 

[Mr. Tycoon]

I don’t know how the future will look like (not going to stop me from taking a view and hence a bet)

But just to bring some historical price cycles into perspectives.

In 2011 Mike Maloney called for 10k dollar gold price. Gold hit an all time high over 2000 usd, having climbed from barely 200 at the turn of the century.

The next tens gold did nothing.

It is softwares, and cryptos in hindsight.

The hottest book in finance is probably Jim Richards’s currency war.

2012 I saw about bitcoin discussion in goldbugs forum. The concensus was that bitcoin is a scam. This is a “distraction”.

If investment world is a theatre, and the higher being “God” is a director, I noticed a pattern that he will keep changing the star roles to prevent us getting bored of the show.

I will be very surprised that if crypto remains the most exciting asset class that everyone talks about in the next ten year.

There is a copper short squeeze happening right now in the Comex market.

Not a lot of attention outside professional commodity traders.

I’m sorry but you’re mixing crypto with BTC as everyone else.

Very few people understand BTC , - probably less than 5000 people globally.

 

[Mr. Tycoon]

Only one thing matters in this life: how much bitcoin do you own?

Everything else goes to zero against BTC.

Do you want to own and run all the casinos in Las Vegas or do you want to own the whole land under the Strip forever ?

 

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[Jon822]

Only one thing matters in this life: how much bitcoin do you own?

Everything else goes to zero against BTC.

Do you want to own and run all the casinos in Las Vegas or do you want to own the whole land under the Strip forever ?

Laughably stupid take. I hope you're trolling.

 

[Antifragile]

How is it a superior technology for "people who code and create" to get better rewards for their efforts?



I'm glad you went down the rabbit hole. I'm sure you've learned a ton.



How? Where are these opportunities you speak of?

I'm only critical because I've been down that road. I also thought it was a "marvelous" new type of computer. I envisioned all of the creative ways smart contracts could be used.

So far, the best use of smart-contracts I've found are AMM (automated market makers). It's a genius way for people to exchange one digital asset for another without an intermediary.

Ultimately, I didn't find "all the opportunities" you speak of. I mostly found scammers, degenerates, and losers masquerading around fancy words to suck people out of their hard earned money.

Even for large networks like ETH which I still use and find valuable, I learned that with ZK cryptography you could essentially nest multiple layers down until the cost of a transactions reaches ~0 while preserving maximal levels of security, though you would sacrifice liveliness across other applications.

Meaning the business model of selling block-space on smart-contract platforms is a race to the bottom.

What about BTC and a store of value? I think it has merit. Which is why I have some for that purpose. But as I've outlined before, it isn't without flaw. For all the flack Peter Schiff gets, I think he's actually right that Gold might be a better store of value.

So where's the value? Because there clearly is some value somewhere.

The real value is in the network.
The real value is in the shared belief system among participants.
The real value is memetic.

The rest of the "global computer" and "decentralization" and all the other buzzwords is baloney for the rookies, and gospel for the zealots who get high from their own supply.

I treat it like a casino because it's largely a casino. Arguably the best invention so far with crypto has been stablecoins, which according to some is a CIA invention which allows it and other three-letter agencies to print money to fund their black ops off the books.

Maybe I went too deep down the rabbit hole. Because what I found was mostly rabbit poop.

I hope you learn more than me and prove me wrong.

You and I traded places big time. While I was skeptical and disheartened when I started, I couldn't get a CloneX because I felt it was such a waste of money (I never did and they went down 90%+ since in price) to today... where I am more optimistic then I've ever been!

You keep asking for real life applications today and I'll do my best but remember my post please: it's like you asking me to tell you about Twitter back in 1995. No one can do that, but someone will create that Twitter.

Nonetheless, here are a few tries (and thanks for engaging in a dialogue on this thread, as I think it may be the most useful thread for some members here!):

• Real Estate. Tokenomics for RE could remove a "trust me" barrier between GP and LPs in a PERE businesses. Onramping and off ramping being still a problem. But the fact remains, meme coins teach us we can fork a chain so easily, we can just create dedicated, altered chains that function to serve a purpose. Translation: just a fancy 10x improved Excel sheet where GP can't screw you by running numbers differently than originally designed. You can do that right now. Is it a big deal? Until the first person makes their 8-10 figure exit on this forum doing this, it'll remain a nothing. Afterwards everyone will pile on.
• Music. In 2022 Spotify had over 9 million musicians on their service. Guess how many made more than $50,000 p.a. from the said service? ... 0.2%. Blockchain can redistribute creator rewards with tokens. Easy use today. We aren't there yet but it's coming. And the minute its easy, every single music creator will shift to the model that pays them better.
• Store of value: you nailed it, the real value is in the network effect. But people will say "gold has intrinsic value", I'll push back and say that when you buy art, like a painting for your house, you aren't buying the copyright, you are buying the physical object and a license to use and display it. The value is more emotional and subjective. You can't analyze cash flow on art. How is NFT any different? I just bought an NFT (for way too much money, mind you) and the artist is mailing me a physical copy too. I love the look, it's worth it for me - it has value. If enough people view it the same way... that one piece can hold value or be worthless. Meaning: it doesn't matter that NFTs "aren't a store of value" they do what they are designed to do! And what do they do? They work well in passing on royalties to the creators. Every creator should think about that. It works.

I'll repeat this:
The corporate model is like a highly managed theme park that builds the whole experience end to end. The blockchain network is like a city that starts with core building blocks and encourages bottom-up entrepreneurship. NFTs with permissive copyrights encourage third-party innovation and so fit naturally in the city model.


NFTs are still evolving, but there are early signs of success. The NFT standard was formalized in 2018, and NFT sales began growing in 2020. From 2020 to early 2023, creators received about $9 billion in payments from NFT sales. YouTube, a much more established player, paid out about $47 billion during the same period (55% to creators). Instagram, TikTok, Twitter and others paid next to nothing during that time to creators!!!

Credit Card Payments on the Internet
Another trip down memory lane. You are old enough to remember the first few time you paid using a credit card on the internet - back then it was actually scary. It was full of scammers. Now we enter credit cards online left right and centre, no biggie. Security over that has been solved back in 2010. Isn't it great? But they are still not as good as they can be, high friction. You have to enter your credit card info fraud and charge-backs are high, credit card fees to merchants are what? 2-3%? That's still high, it doesn't need to be that high. And mobile platforms like Apple Store charge 30% for the privilege to sell on their "store". WFT?!!! As an app builder, do you want to pay that to Apple? No one cares, you have to pay it.

Blockchain solves that, maybe not today but it's coming. Moving money should be as easy as sending this post on the forum to you or sending a text message. Blockchain solves that. Case in point: sending money USDC on ETH is faster and cheaper than using bank wires!!!

It's like when we used to pay for calls on cell per minute and each text message cost on top of that. Then came smartphones. Now you had internet access, and suddenly no one can get away with charing for text messages because we'll just use internet to text to each other. Same thing here. But before smartphones, you wouldn't have asked me for this particular use-case. Yet here we are, Steve Jobs ... iPhone... here we are.


Pay per click advertising (Google)

Google commands 80% of all internet search. But why does it have to be this way? Why can't the internet search (pay-per-click) be run on a blockchain? There are enough profits to be had that someone is coding something right now...

And for those not paying attention by relying on Google ... have you heard of one-boxing? AI summarizes whatever your website is supposed to address and you don't even get a click lol. Ouch. Some of you folks are out of business in a year and you may not even see it coming. How is this relevant? There is a NEED for a more decentralized internet.

Remember: most current AI systems have no economic model for creators! Yet the people who create content to feed into the AI will need to be compensated. How? Why not blockchain application here. I bet some entrepreneurs are working on it even if I don't know them or their projects.

Strength in numbers
Blockchain are collective bargaining machines. They are perfectly suited to solve large-scale economic coordination problems, especially when one side of the network has more power than the other side. Blockchains have fixed rules, low take rates, and incentives for builders. Creators could set terms and conditions for using their work, backed up by software-enforced rules and copyright restrictions focused on commercial uses, including Al training.

Look, there are only two network architectures that are democratic and egalitarian in the spirit of early days of the internet: protocol networks and blockchain.

I can go on... but let me sum up after a long post.

The infrastructure today is already good enough to host Internet-scale apps. This will grow. Just watch.
The value you mentioned above is in the network. The network effect is at work already on social tech. Blockchain is massively multi-player social. It'll become more useful as more users get on.
Composability: the code is open source. It's like Lego bricks. This grows the global knowledge as faster clip than any other way.

And if someone is young, is in tech - would you rather work for Google, develop depending on Google or aim to find partners and create something on blockchain to disrupt? I have hope in the young people doing their thing!!!



Bottom line, these already exits on blockchains and are growing:
- Social Networks
- Games and "virtual world" ownership
- NFTs for artists