The Active Forex Traders Discussion

[P3HSB]

When there is a ratio of 30-35 / 70-65, I play against it, i.e. when 70% of positions is long, I play short.

This is interesting. In myfxbook there is a little section called "Community Outlook" which shows the % of long and short position on the currency pairs. I am starting to realize a pattern where every time I go with the "crowd" I lose, and every time I go against it, I win.

For example, in this picture it shows 19% short and 80% long on GBP/USD

As of today (3/6/2015) the market for GBP/USD is clearly bearish but for some reason everyone is long

 

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[Deleted21961]

Maybe the reason behind this is very simple: most 'small players' in the market are losing money, so it's better to play against them, not with them.

 

[loop101]

I will check out those books ty

Apparently the ETF book is available online:
http://tradersoos.nl/page7/files/High prob ETF Trading.pdf

And the strategy book has a workbook online:
http://files.meetup.com/1649005/Book - Short Term Trading Strategies That Work.ppt

Here is a review of one of the systems (as of 2014): http://systemtradersuccess.com/connors-2-period-rsi-update-2014

 

[CarrieW]

Back in profit now on both trades. Woot! Now if I can get NOT get stuck in a trade for retracement lol

 

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[CarrieW]

It's going to be a long night...

 

[CarrieW]

I am out of all trades right now. http://www.myfxbook.com/members/carlen19/carlen19/1106641 I am going to take a break for a bit... Idk how long but I want to step back and re-evaluate a bit before I start back trading again.

 

[playa77]

Any european forex traders here? i need some broker suggestions to look into, any good (or bad) experiences?

 

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[10lapsdown]

I am out of all trades right now. http://www.myfxbook.com/members/carlen19/carlen19/1106641 I am going to take a break for a bit... Idk how long but I want to step back and re-evaluate a bit before I start back trading again.

Gotta be happy with those % gains in only 6 months. I know I would be! Congratulations.

 

[CarrieW]

Thanks! I would be lol. I have zero willpower and could just have easily blown up my account or be stuck in negative trades. Nothing of what I did used any real skill. I ended up trading last night when I said I was done and am in negative trades again! Smh. I think/hope it was a small retracement(they were in profit most of the time) and should go back my way but until I can not do what I did last night it means squat...

 

[10lapsdown]

Haha! Well you do better than me and many others. I'm currently stuck at break even, consistently. For some reason i make some profits then blow it on one dubious trade. I've banished myself to demo trading until I can get at least 3 months of consistent, reasonable profits.
For anyone interested, the best book I've read is Trading in the Zone. Great book about the psychology behind trading.

 

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[P3HSB]

Thanks! I would be lol. I have zero willpower and could just have easily blown up my account or be stuck in negative trades. Nothing of what I did used any real skill. I ended up trading last night when I said I was done and am in negative trades again! Smh. I think/hope it was a small retracement(they were in profit most of the time) and should go back my way but until I can not do what I did last night it means squat...

I entered EUR/USD Short last night. Now I am down -128 pips....

 

[10lapsdown]

I entered EUR/USD Short last night. Now I am down -128 pips....

Yeah not the best place to enter. Though, on the daily it still hasn't broken the last major bearish bar, 11/03. There maybe more downward pressure to come but price is currently bouncing off a very old line of support. That being 1.055. Interestingly, the last time E/U hit these levels was back in 2003!

 

[CarrieW]

I am almost even in my trades now... So glad that was a retracement P3HSB did u stay in

 

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[P3HSB]

I am almost even in my trades now... So glad that was a retracement P3HSB did u stay in

yeah I am still in. Still down -19 pips. Are you going to hold the trade over the weekend or are you going to close out today? I see a reversal candle on the 1H chart on the 1.05000 support and its starting to make its way back up.

 

[CarrieW]

Trying to close today hopefully.

 

[P3HSB]

Trying to close today hopefully.

exited EUR/USD short with 22.5 pips

and a fresh start for next week!

 

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[DiemTrader]

Currency War Intensifies; Weak Japanese Yen Threatens Asian Currencies
http://alphanow.thomsonreuters.com/...weak-japanese-yen-threatens-asian-currencies/

The U.S. dollar advanced to an eight-year high against the Japanese yen and is unbalancing the Asian exports space, as its weakness is by far the most excessive in the region.

The yen weakness is similar to other major currencies, which are competing to outdo each other in an all-out effort to export their way out of economic malaise.

Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon

Preferring a weak yen

The post-World War II Japanese economy was built on exports, which means the Japanese will always like a weak currency. Local politicians might pay lip service to international affairs and say that a weak currency might complicate the country’s aggressive experiment to restore growth. However, a weak yen is the main requirement for strong exports. With The Federal Reserve ready to tighten rates and the Bank of Japan flooding the financial system with yen, the currency can only decline.

The charts show dollar/yen ready to test the resistance of the major trend line declining since April 1990. Currently, that trend line rests at 122.40. A convincing break above this line would likely accelerate more yen selling against the dollar, as longer term traders would eye the 128 area.

Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon

Watch the competition

Such excessive weakness of the Japanese yen should not sit well with the competing Chinese yuan. The Chinese currency is the strongest in Asia, a position that negatively affects its exports. The currency wars could flare up.

 

[CarrieW]

I had 2 open eur/usd and a aud/usd the aud is in the - about 56 pips... I closed one of the eur trades for 72 pips profit and I have one still open with 19pips profit. I meant to close it out when it was a bit higher but I got involved in phone calls to do with the house we are buying and totally forgot all about it. hoping it gaps down on open tomorrow night.

also I cant get the myfxbook to connect... so I cant update

 

[RisingStars]

Hello guys,

I am sorry that I didnt read the whole thread yet, maybe my questions were already answered but I have a few:

MJ said that trading isnt "fastlane" because the broker is in control. Do you use it "just to pay the bills" or do you have long term goals?

I wanted to get into daytrading earlier but I didnt pursue it because of the hate for trading in the internet. Sure someone who thought he will be a millionaire in 4 weeks with 5000$ and lose it all wont write positive about trading but one question let me get away from trading:
"if trading would be so good why are all the "successful" traders need to charge 1000$ for coaching and stuff?"
Are these only a few scammers? Who are the successful traders?

What different types of trading exist btw? There are 3 I guess:
1. Warren Buffet style: Analyse and hold long.
2. Daytrading: Currency for example buy-sell really quick.
3. Not sure on this one: Normal Trading: Hold for hours-a few days? Does that work?

Last one: Are you successful with trading? What was your capital to get started? I read a few days ago that its only worth it if you have a lot of money. Is that true? I am talking half a million at least here.

Would be really greatful if someone could answer my queations. Thank you for reading.

 

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[loop101]

These guys turned $1k in to $7M in 8 months. I wonder how many don't get caught because they are not so dumb.

http://www.afr.com/business/banking...amay-sentenced-to-seven-years-20150317-1m0j9d

"Kamay, who netted more than $7 million in profits through 45 trades over eight months, pleaded guilty to six charges including four for INSIDERS trading, one for identity theft and one for money laundering related to his $2.3 million purchase of an apartment bought from the reality television show The Block.

The two men were caught following a four-month federal police sting, codenamed Operation Leith, which was triggered after their stockbroker discovered the pair were friends on LinkedIn."

 

[CarrieW]

Holy volatility today LOL. I hung in there tho in my trades. I am not quite sure what the right thing to do is so I am going to do nothing and wait and see what happens overnight.

 

[CarrieW]

phew... its almost back to my entry... that was crazy yesterday. not for the faint of heart thats for sure!

 

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[CarrieW]

Ouchie. It never came back fully... Now I'm sweating it out again... Lol

 

[CarrieW]

Anyone else in trades? I'm still in negative lol

 

[P3HSB]

Anyone else in trades? I'm still in negative lol

Short entry order triggered on EUR/USD @ 1.10165. I am up about 99 pips atm.

Price seems to be struggling on the 1.09000 area

 

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[CarrieW]

Very nice! Yeah it seems to be. I am down a ton... Idk how many pips. I watch $

 

[M&A]

I am getting back into the currency market after about a 2 month break and would love to join in on the conversation and bounce ideas off.

I have about 2 years experience in trading solely currencies and gold.

I started with about 3000$ back in may 2014 and ran it up over 1,000%, mainly by shorting EUR, GBP, JPY against USD and catching some short term trends in cross pairs.

I don't use indicators, I rely on news announcements, price action and try to get a feel for how people are behaving and thinking in the market.

I make most of my money on well timed, leveraged shorts before large sell offs or in the middle of them.

A typical trading plan for me would be:

Account value: $10,000
1. Watch all major and cross pairs like a hawk and never trade not even 1$ until I speculate a large multiday move is about to happen, usually fueled by a new announcement or break of a certain price level.

2. Place trade maybe 10 times account value with stop 50- 100pips.

3. Scenario A: A day later and nothing happens - Market doesnt move, I am out no matter what the pnl is.
Scenario B : Market moves heavily against me I get stopped out - lose 5-10% of my account.
Scenario C: Market acts like I predicted falls 100+ pips, I move stop to break even and let the trade run until a it closes higher than the previous day open - I make 0-70% on my account which pays for all my ill timed trades.

I usually make 1-3 trades a month, my largest drawdown was about 22% which in the grand scheme of things wasn't that bad.

My biggest tip to new traders NOT INVESTORS is to capitalize on large directional market moves, where you gain 25-200% on your account.

 

[CarrieW]

Welcome guys! Cmill if you want me to check out a link tell me why don't drop n run... I am still down on my shorts lol. It needs to move already.(in my direction preferably lol)

 

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[DiemTrader]

Anyone else in trades? I'm still in negative lol

I rarely carry longer than 24 hours....in and out!
You may want to think about adding a time based stop to your trades also...just a thought

 

[CarrieW]

Yeah no. I don't do stops... I have done immensely better without them. Even if I get stuck in trades