Get Ready! 6 Days and Counting [Black Friday Prep]

[AllenCrawley]

This is to serve as a simple reminder. As of today, June 25, 2015 there are 6 more months until Christmas.

Current remaining time -> Christmas 2015 Countdown Clock

Holiday shopping will be upon us very quickly.

If you haven't already, be sure to prepare by having adequate inventory for all your products. Many suggest to have enough inventory to get you thru until February 2016.

Communicate with your manufacturers to make sure you understand their current timelines for production and delivery.

If you are not currently selling on Amazon get on there asap to give you time to develop a strong product listing with plenty of great reviews.

Amazon is a powerhouse. In the lead up to Christmas 2013 Amazon sold 426 items per second! It's believed that amazon crushed those numbers during the 2014 season.

If you are already selling on Amazon get all your inventory in amazon's fulfillment centers before October 1st (strong suggestion by @biophase). That leaves us with about 3 months to get products manufactured, take delivery and ship to amazon.

If you have retailers be sure to communicate with them on a consistent basis to make sure they also have adequate inventory levels of your products. They are already very busy and will be more so the closer to Christmas we get. They will likely appreciate you helping them stay ahead of the game.

 

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[Lex DeVille]

Seller Central is down - oh mah gawd!!!

I'm trying to post stuff damn it!

 

[DrkSide]

Hadn't even thought about this yet but I need to sit down and come up with a strategy for what I am going to do.

Any estimate on the increase in sales for the 3 months?

 

[AllenCrawley]

Hadn't even thought about this yet but I need to sit down and come up with a strategy for what I am going to do.

Any estimate on the increase in sales for the 3 months?

@Vigilante shared with me last year a general guideline:

October 2x September
November 2x October's sales
December 2x November's sales.

That seems pretty accurate when looking back at last year.

 

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[funkj25]

Anyone have any experience on FBA receiving times into the holidays? November/December? This will be my first year with an FBA product during the holidays and I'm just curious in the event I have to replenish inventory into the holiday season.

 

[Vigilante]

Anyone have any experience on FBA receiving times into the holidays? November/December? This will be my first year with an FBA product during the holidays and I'm just curious in the event I have to replenish inventory into the holiday season.

Add 10 days

 

[DrkSide]

Thanks for the info @Vigilante and @AllenCrawley

Now I have a question. I have a single product on Amazon right now that I sell. Would you go deep on the one product and try to get enough inventory so you don't sell out or would you use some of the profits to bring in other products?

As it is I don't have near enough capital for the one product to get me through the holidays if those numbers are correct but I am going to reinvest all of the profits from the rest of the year into more inventory.

 

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[Vigilante]

Thanks for the info @Vigilante and @AllenCrawley

Now I have a question. I have a single product on Amazon right now that I sell. Would you go deep on the one product and try to get enough inventory so you don't sell out or would you use some of the profits to bring in other products?

As it is I don't have near enough capital for the one product to get me through the holidays if those numbers are correct but I am going to reinvest all of the profits from the rest of the year into more inventory.

The multiples are more reflective of a mature business. That is the type of forecast that a Walmart or a Best Buy might use on a predictable, mature business. Developing businesses are more unpredictable, in that you might totally blow the curve in one direction or another. If I remember correctly, @AllenCrawley blew the curve last year by selling more.

Lets start with what you DON'T want to do. You don't want to buy too much. Ideally, you will be out of stock on Christmas eve. Keep in mind though that manufacturers start winding down after the holidays for the Chinese New Year, and it literally could be April before you get back in stock in some cases. That's OK.

For a new business, you want to be lean and mean. The biggest problem you could create would be to overestimate in an unpredictable business, buy too much, and have excess inventory in January. You want to have CASH in January, not a ton of product. So, if you have to lean one way or the other, lean towards selling out. Count it as a blessing. Forecasting sales is an art form, and takes experience to master. A conservative path is the path I would always recommend. You don't want to have to screw up the market in Q1 2016 to discount your merchandise in hopes of turning it into cash at that time.

Sell out on 12/23. Drink some eggnog on 12/24, and on 12/25 while everyone else has visions of sugar plums dancing in their head, you get up early and start planning your world domination for 2016.

 

[AllenCrawley]

Anyone have any experience on FBA receiving times into the holidays? November/December? This will be my first year with an FBA product during the holidays and I'm just curious in the event I have to replenish inventory into the holiday season.

Add 10 days

Last year Amazon emailed a calendar showing dates that product had to be checked in by in order to be available for Black Friday, Cyber Monday and Christmas. I had lots of shipments heading into FBA last year and made sure to make their deadlines. The products were indeed available by those dates.

 

[Vigilante]

Last year Amazon emailed a calendar showing dates that product had to be checked in by in order to be available for Black Friday, Cyber Monday and Christmas. I had lots of shipments heading into FBA last year and made sure to make their deadlines. The products were indeed available by those dates.

http://go.amazonservices.com/rs/ama...C18kX3RUqI7+YaAfind1SFJk7a8C6XFpBQ91G8jsVTrXH

 

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[funkj25]

I appreciate the help @Vigilante and @AllenCrawley . I'm heading out of the country for September and just trying to figure out cashflow coupled with order times, anticipated check-in times, etc. Luckily I've got help (my folks) to send in the FBA inventory for me mid-September to have it all in by the recommended Oct 1 date.

Vig, since you err on the side of being out of stock at Christmas what are you thoughts on re-ordering inventory during Christmas to be ready to sell again in January for an item that sells year round? I launched this product January of this year and peaked sales in March before coming down a bit to their current "normalized" levels. So I know it will still sell post-Christmas.

My thought on ordering a "regular" size order during December for inventory January and on would be to spend the money on inventory instead of paying taxes on the money as profit since I'll need the inventory anyway. Does this make sense or am I missing something on the tax/accounting front here?

 

[VegasMan]

Some stats from Amazon's 2014 Christmas season:

"Total holiday sales from the Amazon app for smartphones doubled in 2014 in the US."
"On Cyber Monday, Amazon customers worldwide ordered more than 18 toys per second from a mobile device."
"Amazon customers purchased enough Sophie the Giraffe teethers to equal the height of 788 real giraffes."

http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=176060&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=2002024

 

[Vigilante]

If your business were mature, January sales would likely equal September sales in most consumer categories.

If you are relying on your business for income, then you might want to land on Christmas eve with a 90 day supply assuming you are sourcing from Asia and might not be able to get more goods until April.

Totally up to you. We generally don't buy inventory based on tax implications, as you are just shifting buckets. Net taxable event is likely the same in most structures. Most of my business flows through an S-Corp with pass through expenses and income anyway, but we don't make this decision based on tax implications. Base it on what you need for the business to be healthy and grow and turn the cash over.

My main decision would be based on whether or not I could get consistency of supply throughout Q1.

If YES, land Christmas eve with zero.

If NO, land Christmas eve with what you will want to sustain your sales until your next incoming inventory.

Personal taxes are simply a byproduct of sales. Worry mostly about sales.

 

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[Vigilante]

Some stats from Amazon's 2014 Christmas season:

"Total holiday sales from the Amazon app for smartphones doubled in 2014 in the US."
"On Cyber Monday, Amazon customers worldwide ordered more than 18 toys per second from a mobile device."
"Amazon customers purchased enough Sophie the Giraffe teethers to equal the height of 788 real giraffes."

http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=176060&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=2002024

Once my wife almost bought a giraffe toy off of Amazon. The sole criteria for her purchase decision/interest?

It was the #1 ranked item in the category she was searching for.

Sales beget sales. Amazon is an upward and downward self fulfilling prophecy spiral.

Some of the Amazon statistics are staggering.

 

[Vigilante]

BTW, don't take my tax advice. I usually do it horrifically wrong, spending too much early on without adequate reserves and dealing with tax implications later. Not smart. I read something from Kyosaki once about how he saw tax bills as simply a challenge to earn more then to cover them. That's kind of what I have done, but it is in and of itself a shitty spiral of it's own.

You should have a tax strategy. And, your tax strategy should be better than mine.

 

[VegasMan]

Once my wife almost bought a giraffe toy off of Amazon. The sole criteria for her purchase decision/interest?

It was the #1 ranked item in the category she was searching for.

I didn't even know what the heck a Sophie the Giraffe was until I just now looked it up. I'm willing to bet there were buyers who didn't even have a baby or someone with a baby to gift it to! Crazy.

 

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[million$$$smile]

I've just got to reconsider FBA.
I don't have the markup that many of you have as I don't outsource/import, but we make up for it by having a rather large amount of SKU's.

Also, is anyone selling on AZ's international marketplaces? We have been selling on the Canadian marketplace with limited success.
Anyone tried selling on the European or Japanese marketplaces yet, and if so, what is your take on it?

As much a I like the sales on this marketplace, I hate the lack of control...

 

[LibertyForMe]

What are your opinions on someone with a brand new product? It will retail between $60 and $70, and I'm hoping that I can get it on Amazon by mid-August. I won't have any reviews, or anything, so I'll have to hustle for those. I really don't want to undershoot and run out before it really starts heating up, but I also don't want to order a giant amount.

I was thinking about getting around 75. I figure that I'll give away or sell at least 20 or so really cheaply, and then that'll leave me around 50 to hold me over. Thoughts?

 

[million$$$smile]

Why leave money on the table if your not sure you won't sell them quickly. Why not test for a week or so full price and see what happens?

Sometimes we drop prices to quick, rather than letting the market tell us.

 

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[funkj25]

If your business were mature, January sales would likely equal September sales in most consumer categories.

If you are relying on your business for income, then you might want to land on Christmas eve with a 90 day supply assuming you are sourcing from Asia and might not be able to get more goods until April.

Totally up to you. We generally don't buy inventory based on tax implications, as you are just shifting buckets. Net taxable event is likely the same in most structures. Most of my business flows through an S-Corp with pass through expenses and income anyway, but we don't make this decision based on tax implications. Base it on what you need for the business to be healthy and grow and turn the cash over.

My main decision would be based on whether or not I could get consistency of supply throughout Q1.

If YES, land Christmas eve with zero.

If NO, land Christmas eve with what you will want to sustain your sales until your next incoming inventory.

Personal taxes are simply a byproduct of sales. Worry mostly about sales.

Got it.

Basically I just don't want to be out of inventory ever so I try to make it JIT inventory as much as possible and err on the side of having slightly too much inventory (by 1-2 week supply). My supplier actually keeps a skeleton crew on during Chinese New Year. I was growing order sizes at that time this year and got a 1000 unit order from them placed 2-3 weeks before CNY started and arrived before the holiday officially began so they're fairly reliable (large manufacturer).

We'll see how this Christmas goes. Selling out of inventory won't be a bad thing on the income side - I just hate to lose the sales rank and visibility when I'm out of inventory as I am using it for income.

As an aside I also have your same basic tax strategy, sell much more than you need for income and let the taxes take care of themselves later. Not a great strategy per se, but it does keep focus on increasing the topline versus trying to penny pinch to a better bottom line.

 

[AllenCrawley]

 

[Gsuz]

DAMN!! Time goes by so fast

 

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[AllenCrawley]

140 Days Remaining.

Made the largest orders for inventory I've ever made over the past couple days. Scary and exciting all at the same time. There is a 4-6 week production lead time for most of the product. We should be able to have most if not all of the product ready by end of September and in FBA by second week of October.

 

[ZCP]

Soap is already selling at November levels from last year. Going to need to up our orders above what we had planned. Will be hiring help to prep and package. Lots to do to get it all in by October.

Products company just got our ads / LP / upsell / follow up loops in place. Tons of items to pic / list / push between now and October. Trying to convince clients they cannot wait to get inventory lined up. Predict a lot of them will be missing out on sales!

 

[funkj25]

140 Days Remaining.

Made the largest orders for inventory I've ever made over the past couple days. Scary and exciting all at the same time. There is a 4-6 week production lead time for most of the product. We should be able to have most if not all of the product ready by end of September and in FBA by second week of October.

I'll be putting in my largest inventory order to date at the beginning of September and it's scary as crap cause the cost of the inventory is about as much as I made (net) all of last year... ha. Go big or go home as they say. I'm just keeping my fingers crossed those sales multiples really track properly as estimated. I'm in the toys & games category and a top 3 "wished for" item in my sub category so I'm hoping that all pans out nicely for Christmas when people need gifts.

I'm also in the midst of launching a related product too because I'm crazy and didn't want to wait until next January to roll it out. We'll see what happens there...

140 days and counting of nerves, excitement and hopefully profit. Here we go.

 

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[AllenCrawley]

Black Friday: 56 days

Christmas: 84 days

 

[funkj25]

Black Friday: 56 days

Christmas: 84 days

Hey @AllenCrawley @Vigilante or @biophase have any of you run lightning deals before? I've gotten an invitation to do one on my top selling product, but I'm always leery about lowering the price on it.

Any good/bad experiences with lightning deals? My product is definitely in the gift category, but I don't know if there's any long term benefits to doing a deal? Is it just worth the little pop in sales you get?

 

[Vigilante]

I did one and regular velocity didn't increase… So to me it felt like we were just giving away money.

 

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[AllenCrawley]

Hey @AllenCrawley @Vigilante or @biophase have any of you run lightning deals before? I've gotten an invitation to do one on my top selling product, but I'm always leery about lowering the price on it.

Any good/bad experiences with lightning deals? My product is definitely in the gift category, but I don't know if there's any long term benefits to doing a deal? Is it just worth the little pop in sales you get?

I have not. I did receive an invitation but no sure if I will do it.

 

[AllenCrawley]

Only 6 days remaining until Black Friday!!!


“According to Adobe, U.S. consumers spent a record-breaking $2.4 billion on Black Friday last year. But that record won’t last long; according to TechRadar, Black Friday 2015 is projected to be the biggest day of spending on the internet — ever.” - Corey Ferreira


The biggest day of spending on the internet - ever.