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OFF-TOPIC Going to Vegas... need betting ideas!

Discussion in 'Off Topic: Sports, Funnies, Pop-Culture' started by MJ DeMarco, May 8, 2018.

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  1. MJ DeMarco
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    MJ DeMarco Raving Lunatic Staff Member Read Millionaire Fastlane I've Read UNSCRIPTED FASTLANE INSIDER Speedway Pass LEGENDARY CONTRIBUTOR Summit Attendee

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    Heading to Vegas this month and I'd like to make a few crazy bets.

    Looking to do seasonal stuff ...

    Like picking the Jacksonville Jaguars to win the Super Bowl...

    The Diamondbacks to win the World Series.

    Taking suggestions! (No, I'm not making the bets above!)

    Please include your reasoning!
     
  2. Bellini
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    Bellini Gold Contributor Read Millionaire Fastlane I've Read UNSCRIPTED Speedway Pass

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    Is this just for sports-related bets? :smile2:
     
  3. AgainstAllOdds
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    AgainstAllOdds Legendary Contributor Read Millionaire Fastlane FASTLANE INSIDER Speedway Pass LEGENDARY CONTRIBUTOR

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    Paul George to the Lakers -125.

    The most respected journalist in basketball, Woj, previously reported George's intent to go to the Lakers. It's also his hometown. He hasn't denied his intentions of going there. He was a one year rental in OKC this year. They thought they could bring him back. They lost in the first round miserably and have horrible contracts locked in for next year, meaning that they won't be competitive. He's not re-signing with OKC. He's leaving. Lakers have the cap space, are his home team, and it's been implied they'd get him for roughly a year now. You'll cash your bet out in July. Quick payout.

    ............

    Easy basketball bets will be following whoever is up in a series and betting against them if a questionable ref gets assigned. You're basically betting on the NBA wanting to extend the series as long as possible.

    You can also go blind in the NHL for positive EV.

    ............

    World Cup:

    Bet big on Russia to get out of the group.

    FIFA is notoriously corrupt, and hosts often are pushed out of the group as a courtesy. Russia is also well known for using performance enhancing drugs and cheating.

    Here's Russia's Winter Olympic results in 2010 when it was in Vancouver:

    [​IMG]
    Didn't even make the top ten.

    Here's Russia's Winter Olympic results in 2014 when it was in Russia:

    [​IMG]

    Add to that that Russia is good enough to beat Saudi Arabia and Egypt without cheating/doping, and you have a sure bet.

    Betting on them to be in the top 4 is also a strong bet. Unlikely, but positive expected value.

    ............

    Fun bets:

    Place $100 on one team in every single group of the World Cup to win it all. For example Group A choose Russia. Group B choose Spain. Etc. There's 8 groups. That's $800 total.

    After placing your bets you have something to watch. For $800 you'll have a month's worth of entertainment with an EV around 90%. So basically you're paying $80 for a month of games and a tournament to follow for fun.

    ............

    Other than that, nothing easy that sticks out.

    Typically the easiest money is betting against the public and betting against hype (think Conor McGregor vs Floyd Mayweather -- irrational betting hype was around McGregor). It's unknown what that will be when you make your trip.

    If there's a game you're unsure about, type in "public betting tracker" and try to stick to bets that are going against what everyone thinks is going to happen (since it's already baked into the odds).


    Best of luck.
     
  4. MJ DeMarco
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    MJ DeMarco Raving Lunatic Staff Member Read Millionaire Fastlane I've Read UNSCRIPTED FASTLANE INSIDER Speedway Pass LEGENDARY CONTRIBUTOR Summit Attendee

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    Nope. Although I'm not sure what's available.

    Thanks @AgainstAllOdds for the suggestions! THAT's what I'm talking about!
     
  5. MJ DeMarco
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    MJ DeMarco Raving Lunatic Staff Member Read Millionaire Fastlane I've Read UNSCRIPTED FASTLANE INSIDER Speedway Pass LEGENDARY CONTRIBUTOR Summit Attendee

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    No one else? Where are the degenerate gamblers? :hilarious:
     
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  6. InspireHD
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    Have you watched the documentary on Netflix, "Icarus"?

    It was originally filmed to document a guy who wants to try doping to compete in a bicycle race, but then takes a major twist and goes deep into the Russian doping scandals.
     
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  7. ZCP
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    $10 yo
     
  8. biophase
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    I bet $100 MJ is staying at the Bellagio
     
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    Tiger woods winning the us open when he wins i want my 10% lol
     
  10. Evil_Jester
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    Evil_Jester Bronze Contributor Read Millionaire Fastlane I've Read UNSCRIPTED Speedway Pass

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    Don't go next week. There will be 400,000 people there for the EDC festival.
     
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  11. Vigilante
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    And me at the licensing show.
     
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    TonyStark I'm not dead yet Read Millionaire Fastlane I've Read UNSCRIPTED FASTLANE INSIDER Speedway Pass

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    I see where you get your username from now.
     
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  13. MJ DeMarco
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    You lose, when do I get my $100?!
     
  14. ZCP
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    flip a coin
     
  15. biophase
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    Next time at the Bellagio. :)
     
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    Ref Russia in the World Cup, they have failed to progress from the group stages in 7 of their last 8 tournaments since they started competing as "Russia". I have to think they are being overestimated here with home advantage and the value lies with opposing them getting out of the group. I think the potential corruption has already been factored into the price, they have two first choice centre halves missing and in Uruguay will be up against one of the toughest teams in the competition. Plus Egypt currently have the third best player in the world right now, so that's a big plus for them. Not all plain sailing this group for Russia. All about opinions of course :)
     
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  17. AgainstAllOdds
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    Bumping this to tout my own horn.

    I used to make a good $5k to $10k per year betting in college. Stopped because there wasn't enough scale due to bet limits.

    When it comes to gambling (handicapping), there's two key components that should be looked at:
    1. What historical stats say -- not what you think, but what can be back up by data and facts.
    2. What's being overvalued and thus undervalued due to public bias.

    Russia's killing it right now and is a lock to get out the group. The rest of the bets I wrote above are all also positive EV.
     
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  18. MJ DeMarco
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    MJ DeMarco Raving Lunatic Staff Member Read Millionaire Fastlane I've Read UNSCRIPTED FASTLANE INSIDER Speedway Pass LEGENDARY CONTRIBUTOR Summit Attendee

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    I was just hitting myself in the head for not taking your suggested bet. It was one of the few that looked tempting. Great call.
     
  19. MJ DeMarco
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    MJ DeMarco Raving Lunatic Staff Member Read Millionaire Fastlane I've Read UNSCRIPTED FASTLANE INSIDER Speedway Pass LEGENDARY CONTRIBUTOR Summit Attendee

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    Bump, will be in Vegas a few weeks...

    @AgainstAllOdds - you had some great advice last time.

    Any good bets I could make? Looking to make season long bets, like the Raiders to win the Super Bowl or the Cards to get into the playoffs... long shots.
     
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  20. AgainstAllOdds
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    NBA is all that I'm following right now in the major sports.

    Bet Against the Raptors
    If the Raptors win the next game and tie the series, I'd bet heavily against them in the series. Self-esteem (believing you deserve something) is the largest determinant of personal success. Kyle Lowry doesn't have that. It's why you always see "playoff Lowry". He doesn't believe he can win a championship, sabotages himself subconsciously, and in turn brings down the team. Kawhi Leonard is amazing, but going against the 76ers, it doesn't accommodate for the variance in Lowry's poor performance. If Lowry manages to pull off a few good games, and Raptors win this round, I'd bet a lot more against them next round.

    + EV betting against the Raptors throughout the playoffs.

    Milwaukee Bucks
    Giannis Antetokounmpo is having one of the most efficient seasons in history - when you look at certain advanced metrics... he's better than Lebron was in any of his seasons, which is insane. Biggest reason - he has an amazing assist/turnover ratio, and really high percentage shooting. That has in turn improved the effectiveness of the rest of his teammates, making them one of the best teams in the league.

    I don't think they're better than Golden State, but do think they're #2.

    +EV betting on Milwaukee to win it all.

    Basically the bet you're making if you decide to bet them to win it all: "This is the new Lebron. It's him vs the Warriors, but with a better supporting cast".

    I'd put money on them to close out the East, and a smaller amount on them to win it all. I personally have some money on the Bucks to win it (betting for fun, not to make money, and do believe it's positive EV).


    Donald Trump
    Anything that involves Trump not getting impeached or winning the 2020 election is +EV.


    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    So, my plays if I bet today:
    Milwaukee Bucks to win it all, +400

    Then I'd hedge with:
    Philadelphia 76ers to win the East, +365

    I wouldn't hedge with Golden State, since they're negative EV, but if you're more risk averse, I'd wait until the start of the finals to bet on them and "middle out a profit". Or just bet Milwaukee to win the East.
     
  21. MakeItHappen
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    @AgainstAllOdds do you actively bet on sports? Nice writeup!

    I did some sports betting years ago but was only clearing bonuses or looking for arbitrage plays.

    Oh and good luck in Vegas @MJ DeMarco
     
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  22. Connor
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    Have any of you guys watched the documentary Action on Showtime? Really enjoyed it myself, though definitely some people who should not be gambling.
     
  23. AgainstAllOdds
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    I used to be really good at chess for my age, realized there was no money in it, and at 14 quit chess and started gambling and investing in sports tickets. That was thirteen years ago, and I did that for around 7 years as my primary source of income. Sports tickets made me a lot of money. Gambling was also great money, but betting day to day wasn't for me. Day to day betting has too much variance, and requires a lot of mental fortitude. Your goal is to make money over the course of a season, and not every single day. However, if you're putting a significant portion of your bankroll on the line, those days are not fun.

    I stopped day to day betting once it stopped being enjoyable.

    When I won, I felt nothing. When I lost, I felt depressed. There was no emotional upside, only downside.

    I remember at 17 staring at myself in the bathroom mirror, seeing my face, and wondering why the hell I was sad. The logical part of my brain was justifying all my bets. The emotional part hated the thousand dollar swings.

    So then I went 100% into sports tickets and betting futures as far as gambling goes. Predicting how well a team will do over the course of a season is 10x easier than predicting the outcome of an individual game.

    Betting futures (who wins the conference, how many over/under wins a team has) is something I'm really good at, however, it is something that's capped by the sportsbooks. Vegas limits the amount of money that you can put on a team, and adjusts its odds accordingly. Therefore, you're limited to how much money you can make over the course of a season. Basketball was my sport for the course of a season. On a season, the profits are capped at around $20,000. That's the upside. Usually I'd just make $5k to $10k a season as a hobby bettor. Whenever you place a bet, the odds also change. So if you're limited to $500 lets say on a future, after you place the first bet, the odds change, your EV changes, and your ability to bet more changes. In essence - futures betting is good money, but it's small money that's limited. You don't want to make a career out of it. Cashflow wise it's also horrible because you're tying up your bankroll for 8 months. Not worth it.

    Now, I just bet for fun when I go to a casino, or when there's something really stupid that happens.

    Every 1-2 years there's a "Bet of the Year", and I bet big. It's mostly for fun, but also free money. An example of this are the recent McGregor fights.

    Last big bet I did was a year and a half ago... $10k on Mayweather against McGregor to get $2,500 profit. Those are the bets I like to do. When the entire public is irrationally on one side and placing bets for no reason, skewing the odds, that's when you want to bet big. You look at the fundamentals (I crunch a lot of data), and then compare it to the odds. If the media is hyping someone up like McGregor, but you look at the fundamentals and realize that Mayweather is undefeated, and McGregor is not a boxer, then you bet big and thank the media and irrationality for your winnings.

    Some quick tips:
    • Bet against "hype", and you'll usually do better than if you follow the hype. Betting against the Yankees has historically been positive EV, as is betting against big trades, etc.
    • Psychology is huge. Playoffs is different from regular season. How much does a player believe that they can win the game? What impact does that have? How does his face look after the first quarter, etc?
    • What are the incentives? A lot of sports are rigged. Who does the league want to push through? Who's the ref? What's the story that they want to play out?
    • Manage your bankroll.
    • Don't get emotionally attached. It's a number, and not real until the end of the season.
    I can make a much longer writeup, but that's the general gist of sports gambling.
     
    Last edited: May 5, 2019
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  24. MJ DeMarco
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    Some ideas...

    • Cleveland making playoffs... (although this might be a "hype" bet) so maybe Cleveland NOT making the playoffs
    • Arizona Cards making playoffs...
    • New Orleans winning it all
    • Rays winning it all
     
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  25. AgainstAllOdds
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    On each -110 moneyline bet you make at truly even odds, you're expected to lose 5%. Finding positive EV is difficult. Betting hype basically means that your 5% expected loss increases to let's say 10%.

    If you're hyped for Cleveland, and excited to watch them play, then bet on them. The calculation you then make is "Is 10% of what I'm betting worth it in terms of entertainment?"

    Let's say you're betting $1,000. You're expected to lose $100. Is that $100 over the course of a season worth the entertainment value that you'll get from watching Cleveland play and checking how they're doing throughout the season? For a lot of people it is.
     

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