Cryptocurrency Experience

karakoram · Jan 4, 2014

TTTDodder said:
I just don't get how the predictions on work. I mean, you all seem to be doing some sort of trading, but at the same time, all cryptos just seem to be going up, up, up. 19/46 on cryptmarketcap are up in the past 7 days for a blended, basket return of 10%. Also, I would never have imagined BTC to go from $20 earlier this year to where it is now. Just curious tbh

I can't speak for the others, but I am an active trader (speculator), but not necessarily a day trader. The difference between day traders, speculators and investors, is mainly the time frame they are interested in. In my little list of 3 types, are on a continum of time frames, with investors having the longest time frame. Investors are months to years. SPeculators are days to weeks. Day traders and generally traders are seconds, to minutes to hours, and sometimes days.

So, you need to determine what time frame you are on and stick to that --some people find that very hard to do. Also bitcoin has really high volatilty, so I have found I need to shorten my time frame compared to other tradeables.

Once you figure out your time frame, you then focus on "predictions" (for lack of a better term) that match your time frame. But you also want to look at other time frames to see where your time frame falls inside of the bigger picture.

Here's an example: I am a speculator, so I am interested in trades that last a few days to weeks. This most recent trade I just exited an hour ago was only a 3 day trade. My entry was at about 855 and my exit at about 919.5
Before I put the trade on, I looked at the long term charts to see what the mega trend (secular trend) is. If the market is bullish on the daily charts, or 12 hour, or 8 hour charts, I then look for pullbacks within my time frame, namely the hourly to 30 min charts. I will switch the time frame setting on the chart multiple times and try to get a feel for what the market is doing. When I see a pullback, I look at the really short time frames (15min to 5min charts) to attempt to time a good entry point. In the trade I cited, I didn't buy on a pullback, but bought on a volatility breakout, which is another entry method I use. I still prefer buying on pullbacks, but they are hard to do, as buying when everyone is selling is counter intuitive.

karakoram · Jan 4, 2014

I forgot to mention that you somehow have to determine when to exit. I don't have any advice here. I do this completely intuitively.

You also have to determine position size. This is easy, as its based on the level of risk you are willing to accept. Larger position = more risk.

UPDATE: I just calculated my actual average entry and exit prices
entered @ 852.319164
exit @ 917.9769679

mememan · Jan 4, 2014

scarab said:
The other thing about this type of entry is that its really hard to bring yourself to buy when the market is falling like a rock. Its a contrarian technique. You have to step up and buy when everyone and their brother is selling. You have to be extremely brave in the face of adversity.

I don't have a problem with this. In the stock market, I've been following a strategy where you pick up groups of companies that the market's considering are dead. With that, at least, there is a clear buy signal with the state of the balance sheet. I haven't seen a indicator that can be used of any significance as a long-term buy signal on these. Maybe daily indicators can be used, but I want to put the money in and just hold until it gets really crazy

exige said:
I'll take 10 ASICs

I get this since you can then resell the machines potentially for more than you paid for them. I've read about guys making x2 on the USB miners, which I don't think you can even get any coins with except for the newer ones.

mememan · Jan 4, 2014

Went through a did some USD to alt calculations on Crypsty coins. The LTC only exchanged ones seem super speculative based on my "each coin going to a buck" metric. AndroidTokens was the highest, at a 7M% return. Course then it would be $66B market cap coin

Funny stuff.

On BTC denominated coins, the median was 5x on the same calculation. Average was 100x, which had 10 coins going down near 100%. Played around and keeping the negative coins and taking out the crazy return ones gave 10x-25x. No clue what that means.

Anyone deal with cryptostocks on here?

mememan · Jan 4, 2014

Are they any long-term options like LEAPs for Bitcoin. Say 1-2+ year contracts? Where do you get them and how much?

exige · Jan 4, 2014

TTTDodder said:
I get this since you can then resell the machines potentially for more than you paid for them. I've read about guys making x2 on the USB miners, which I don't think you can even get any coins with except for the newer ones.

Maybe, but then you're in the importing business, buying in bulk from China and reselling here on Amazon etc. I want them to mine Unobtainum, PeerCoin, and maybe some others.

A lot of alts are down right now, I guess its Alty's weekend slump. I've been watching coins like LottoCoin. They drop when the multipools auto-sell/dump. Trying to find a pattern to maybe buy on the dump, wait a bit, then flip out of it.

CryptO · Jan 5, 2014

Houston we have lift off

JayKim · Jan 5, 2014

CryptO · Jan 5, 2014

mememan · Jan 5, 2014

Well damnit. I have some bitcoins on their way to Coinbase and was going to buy more next week and this happens. Maybe I'll put in half my max now and then do the other half until after January 31st.

Has anyone been able to get "instant verified" on Coinbase with a Visa card? I've got 3 Visas, but not a single one would work for address verification and I called the card issuers on all 3 and they don't even see where Coinbase is trying to make contact to verify.

karakoram · Jan 5, 2014

Well, we gots us a little volatility today.

My feeling ("prediction") is that we should see a major reaction (pullback) very soon. If you look at the long term charts, we haven't had a meaningful reaction for sometime. That's pretty unusual for any market and for bitcoin. The most recent rise in the past couple of days is just about vertical on a geometrically increasing curve. Markets that asymptotically approach vertical tend to top out and crash. Bitcoin seems to do this on the way up within a long term up trend.

Just look at the rise that occurred before the late Nov peak for evidence. Also, think about this: Major position holders will be looking to cash out right now.

Coindesk did an informal non-scientific survey and over 56% of respondents said BTC will go to $10,000 usd in 2014. I'm not sure it will go that high, but going a lot higher than $1200 (at least double) looks like a very real possibility.

So, what I am saying here is that there will be a really good buying opportunity very soon. I don't know when. It might be a couple of days or more. I will be watching the market waiting for a new entry point.

karakoram · Jan 5, 2014

Well, we gots us a little volatility today.

My feeling ("prediction") is that we should see a major reaction (pullback) very soon. If you look at the long term charts, we haven't had a meaningful reaction for sometime. That's pretty unusual for any market and for bitcoin. The most recent rise in the past couple of days is just about vertical on a geometrically increasing curve. Markets that asymptotically approach vertical tend to top out and crash. Bitcoin seems to do this on the way up within a long term up trend. It then tends to resume the uptrend after shaking out the "weak hands"

Just look at the rise that occurred before the late Nov peak for evidence. Also, think about this: Major position holders will be looking to cash out right now.

Coindesk did an informal non-scientific survey and over 56% of respondents said BTC will go to $10,000 usd in 2014. I'm not sure it will go that high, but going a lot higher than $1200 (at least double) looks like a very real possibility.

So, what I am saying here is that there will be a really good buying opportunity very soon. I don't know when. It might be a couple of days or more. I will be watching the market waiting for a new entry point.

CryptO · Jan 5, 2014

scarab said:
Well, we gots us a little volatility today.

My feeling ("prediction") is that we should see a major reaction (pullback) very soon. If you look at the long term charts, we haven't had a meaningful reaction for sometime. That's pretty unusual for any market and for bitcoin. The most recent rise in the past couple of days is just about vertical on a geometrically increasing curve. Markets that asymptotically approach vertical tend to top out and crash. Bitcoin seems to do this on the way up within a long term up trend.

Just look at the rise that occurred before the late Nov peak for evidence. Also, think about this: Major position holders will be looking to cash out right now.

Coindesk did an informal non-scientific survey and over 56% of respondents said BTC will go to $10,000 usd in 2014. I'm not sure it will go that high, but going a lot higher than $1200 (at least double) looks like a very real possibility.

So, what I am saying here is that there will be a really good buying opportunity very soon. I don't know when. It might be a couple of days or more. I will be watching the market waiting for a new entry point.

I agree that a 5% pull back (or more) seems highly likely when viewing the 1 day charts. All indicators are screaming SELL SELL!!

We've been gaining value over the previous day for 8 days consecutively. It looks like we are pushing our luck at the moment.

I'm REALLY struggling with holding or going full fiat!

The logical part of my mind is telling me to sell.

The greedy part of me wants to hold out for more profits because we keep bouncing.

Such decisions.

mememan · Jan 5, 2014

Just do a basket of all alt coins and bury them for 1-2 years or until the markets go insane on either the top or bottom.

CryptO · Jan 5, 2014

TTTDodder said:
Just do a basket of all alt coins and bury them for 1-2 years or until the markets go insane on either the top or bottom.

This is my call (it'll be interesting two years from now to look back at this):

Most of the altcoins that we see in early 2014 will be dead in two years. Zetacoin where art thou in 2016?

This is because it is an open and uncapped market that has such ease of entry there are new ones flooding in everyday diluting value from the more established altcoins.

Innovation is being forced into the market and new 'better' coins will drive out all the wannabe coins (the ones that don't have anything unique other than a fancy name or different 'parameters').

The market will be far different 2 years from now, with most names not even recognizable.

mememan · Jan 5, 2014

I don't disagree. Why not just put $100 in every alt as it's added to Crypsty then?

I'm not looking for a x5 return, I'm looking for x10000. I don't think it's worth fooling with the risk of the exchanges running away with your money to get something on the low end when you get just buy a basket of stocks and bury them for 1-2 years in a more secure fashion.

JayKim · Jan 5, 2014

TTTDodder said:
I don't disagree. Why not just put $100 in every alt as it's added to Crypsty then?

I'm not looking for a x5 return, I'm looking for x10000. I don't think it's worth fooling with the risk of the exchanges running away with your money to get something on the low end when you get just buy a basket of stocks and bury them for 1-2 years in a more secure fashion.

There's going to be so many coins eventually on cryptsy and other exchanges, always a new scam coin. Someone tweeted that they'll be hundreds of new ones by the end of the yr at this rate. They're all the same as litecoin or bitcoin. Get ones that are different like Peer, Prime, Name, Protoshares. 2 new different ones I've heard of are datacoin and memorycoin but read up on them first.

exige · Jan 5, 2014

Its going to get worse now that someone put a coin generator up where people can just buy a btc/ltc clone coin, no technical skill required. But still, like anything in business the coins with people who have their act together will rise, the ones who don't will "go out of business".

Almost all the alts have been dropping all day. I've been buying. My strategy was to look through the forums and find coins where people are putting renewed effort into them, and expect that to give them an extra boost when the alts pop to the upside in bitcoin's wake as it moves up.

JayKim · Jan 5, 2014

Heres tweets from coinedup.com exchange. This is whats going to happen to most these spam scam coins.

CoinedUp.com ‏@CoinedUp 1h
[Status] TIPS/BTC and COL/BTC markets being removed shortly. All open orders will be cancelled by the http://CoinedUp.com administration.

CoinedUp.com ‏@CoinedUp 4m
The CAT/DOGE market seems unnecessary to me? Anyone wanna keep it?

CoinedUp.com ‏@CoinedUp 51m
[Status] DIME/BTC market being removed shortly. All open orders will be cancelled by the http://CoinedUp.com administration.

CoinedUp.com ‏@CoinedUp 5m
We removed trading against BTC because the coins are now valued at less than 1 Satoshi.

Mbc · Jan 6, 2014

scarab said:
Could you post a link to a news article on this?

I think it's because the Chinese government gave until the end of January to cash out Bitcoins. Read this a few weeks ago when China "blocked" it.

CryptO · Jan 6, 2014

So it was confirmed Zynga is accepting Bitcoin, then it was said Hong Kong is treating Bitcoin as a commodity and now there is a good chance of this...

Netflix to accept Bitcoin in 2014

https://twitter.com/maxkeiser/status/419920504007294976

Plus in other news Gox officially tweeted about adding litecoin saying:

We have no current plans to add anything other than Litecoin. This doesn't mean we won't add new currencies, but its curren...

https://twitter.com/MtGox/status/419998200854900736

CryptO · Jan 6, 2014

Alty said:
If we are at the beginning of a 3rd BTC and LTC pump then going by the previous two it would be reasonable to estimate a $900 BTC and a $28 to $30 LTC.

I nailed the litecoin prediction three days ago. It's nice to be right sometimes.

mememan · Jan 6, 2014

Yeah it looks to coincide with Chinese New Year.

biggeemac · Jan 6, 2014

Well, the ride got bumpy this morning so i cashed out

CryptO · Jan 6, 2014

biggeemac said:
Well, the ride got bumpy this morning so i cashed out

Probably a wise decision.

I missed the top of this latest pump, but cashed out with a nice profit over yesterday nonetheless.

JayKim · Jan 6, 2014

http://blog.blockchain.info/2014/01/07/hello-2014-and-one-million-wallets/

http://www.coindesk.com/blockchain-info-reaches-one-million-wallets/

Blockchain started 2013 with around 100,000 users. By contrast, 2014 is kicking off with more than a million users.

The company said: “The growth seen over the past year has happened during a pivotal time for bitcoin. Blockchain plans to build this milestone into an outreach opportunity for bitcoin newbies and enthusiasts.”

Blockchain.info added that its leadership role in the bitcoin economy is “only just beginning,” so we can expect a lot more over the next few months.

It is also keen to emphasise that it is nearly a “100% bitcoin” business, as it pays its employees and most of its services in bitcoin. It also closes its business deals in bitcoins, including the recent acquisition of ZeroBlock, the most popular iOS/Android app for bitcoin.

karakoram · Jan 6, 2014

On the subject of bitcoin price action: Carnage in the streets early this morning!

I hope no one here bought at 1090!

I'm looking for an entry point now. I missed the bottom at 965. The question is: is it done dropping for now? Is 965 gonna be the low for now, or will it go to new lows? At this very moment, it appears to be setting a high at around 1017. If it establishes a new low after this that is higher tha n 965, I will be looking to go long again.

karakoram · Jan 6, 2014

Alty said:
Probably a wise decision.

I missed the top of this latest pump, but cashed out with a nice profit over yesterday nonetheless.

I missed the top as well. Once it went above 950 I was like "wtf?" In other words, I found the price action so unpredictable that I decided to stay out. Kinda kicking self, as I missed another 100 points of profit.

But, I just couldn't bring myself to go long because I could not see this market going up much more without a correction. Now that we have the correction, I feel a whole lot more comfortable. Its that intuition thing.

karakoram · Jan 6, 2014

Ok, I think we have a local top now at 1027. Of course I could be wrong, earlier I said I thought the local top was 1017

karakoram · Jan 6, 2014

Alty said:
Plus in other news Gox officially tweeted about adding litecoin saying:
https://twitter.com/MtGox/status/419998200854900736

Very cool! That is feakin' awesome! I think its a wise decision on MtGox's part. I hope the other large exchanges follow suite. That will expand litecoin market cap big time.

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