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Incerto Collection - Nassim Taleb

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JaceG

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So I'm sitting here drinking during my lunch break that I started about a half-hour ago and will go on for another 2 hours because I measured my time and energy to money ratio, wrote it down into a set of parameters to follow, all things I learned from 2 authors. First, Nassim Taleb, who I'm in the habit of rereading ever year now, and secondly MJ who I first read this year. I'm going to finish unscripted today, and I'm really looking forward to honestly marking it as done here on the forums later tonight or tommorrow. In fact, I'll probably finish it during the first hour of my PM Uber Eats shift, and then I'll go on a read the next chapter of Black Swan. I just reread Fooled by Randomness last month... or this month, I can't remember really, as I read about 5-10 chapters (or 1-2 hours max) of 10-20 books simultaneously to replace my thoughts with the thoughts of... more experienced people.

To avoid going on a rant or turning this into a braggy self-centered blog post, I'll just right into the incerto collection, which is the title of the collection of 5 books written by Nassim Taleb based only on his personal experiences through the lense of his education in randomness, complexity, and probability. He is the popularizer of terms such as Black Swan, and Antifragile, as well as the leading authority of the definition of Skin in the Game actually used by really, really big businesses that make money, and lots of it.

If you find it helpful to know why things like time travel into the past or perpetual motion machines are impossible, or just find it interesting to learn how to define a perpetual motion machine is to avoid it. If you find short selling interesting, or read the books the warren buffet founds helpful only to think, "I don't love investing or working enough to do this for 30+ years", or if you watch shows like Billions and think, damn HOW do I do things like that?! Then you will find Nassim Taleb interesting.

Most of his books trigger me. Not because he's an arrogant, self-absorbed a**hole know-it-all, because I am too. I get triggered mostly because he dismisses most of my habits that seem right or even just benign as potential Black Swans... and yet doesn't dismiss religion in an anti-religious way. Yet I've learned to accept that his admission to liking religion for the stories and community but not as business or life advice as surprisingly wise the more years I think about it, and many other things he calls me out on... well, I just can't disprove them, because they work to the extent of getting better results as well as they trigger me. What I'm most fascinated by in this current re-read, is the idea of Negative Black Swans, which due to the fact that Black Swans are a bad thing, Negative Swans are a GOOD THING. This the same concept as Asemetrical Results, so if you want the mathematical and scientific proof behind MJ's Logic, check out Black Swan. If you want to know why people fall for slow lane shit like compounding interest and MLMs, read Fooled By Randomness. If you want to know why people waste time on school degrees to plug into the slow lane, read Antifragile, and if you want to know why most diet, exercise, and pill (pharmaceutical and supplement alike) plans are bullshit. If you want to know where the limits of things like Uber, AirBnB, Turo, and DoorDash are, read Skin in the Game, and also if you want to know why you would want to pay a contractor hourly and why you wouldn't, or if you want to know when to fire your therapist or coach or mentor or family member (like when to get a divorce, cut out your parent, or cut off your kid), it's also a good book for that.

That being said, I'm not a libertarian or into stoicism, I used to be, but I've learned it's more challenging and scary for me to accept that I'm an epicurean and... well, probably an apolitical psychopath. I couldn't be more different than Nassim Taleb philosophically, I don't even reread the Bed of Procrustes, his philosophy book that is part of the collection. But his shit works. And why wouldn't it? It's just another testament of MJ's discoveries he's shared with us through the lens of entrepreneurship, tech, and authorship. Nassim Taleb's Incerto Collection is also worth checking out if you are familiar with psychology, behavioral psych, or trader jargon more than business and tech jargon.

What are your thoughts?

Have you read Nassim Taleb?

Did you enjoy his books, or hate them?

Do you have any other authors that remind you of Nassim Taleb or complement his writing that you recommend?
 
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O sief nutv ug jot cuult. O’n e gep epf ziv O fup’v moli vji haz. Ji’t ep odupudmetv xjip ji fuitp’v piif vu ci. Ov’t e dunqmiy simevouptjoq O jewi xovj Ns. Vemic et ep eavjus. Cav hipisemmz ov’t e qutovowi upi. Niepoph, O ipkuzif epf jewi/xuamf si-sief jot cuult.
 
Tu O'n tovvoph jisi fsoploph fasoph nz mapdj csiel vjev O tvesvif ecuav e jemg-juas ehu epf xomm hu up gus epuvjis 2 juast cideati O nietasif nz voni epf ipishz vu nupiz sevou, xsuvi ov fuxp opvu e tiv ug qesenivist vu gummux, emm vjopht O miespif gsun 2 eavjust. Gostv, Petton Vemic, xju O'n op vji jecov ug sisiefoph iwis zies pux, epf tidupfmz NK xju O gostv sief vjot zies. O'n huoph vu gopotj aptdsoqvif vufez, epf O'n siemmz muuloph gusxesf vu jupitvmz nesloph ov et fupi jisi up vji gusant mevis vupohjv us vunnussux. Op gedv, O'mm qsucecmz gopotj ov fasoph vji gostv juas ug nz QN Acis Ievt tjogv, epf vjip O'mm hu up e sief vji piyv djeqvis ug Cmedl Txep. O katv sisief Guumif cz Sepfunpitt metv nupvj... us vjot nupvj, O dep'v sinincis siemmz, et O sief ecuav 5-10 djeqvist (us 1-2 juast ney) ug 10-20 cuult tonamvepiuatmz vu siqmedi nz vjuahjvt xovj vji vjuahjvt ug... nusi iyqisoipdif qiuqmi.

Vu ewuof huoph up e sepv us vaspoph vjot opvu e csehhz timg-dipvisif cmuh qutv, O'mm katv sohjv opvu vji opdisvu dummidvoup, xjodj ot vji vovmi ug vji dummidvoup ug 5 cuult xsovvip cz Petton Vemic cetif upmz up jot qistupem iyqisoipdit vjsuahj vji mipti ug jot ifadevoup op sepfunpitt, dunqmiyovz, epf qsucecomovz. Ji ot vji quqamesobis ug visnt tadj et Cmedl Txep, epf Epvogsehomi, et ximm et vji miefoph eavjusovz ug vji figopovoup ug Tlop op vji Heni edvaemmz atif cz siemmz, siemmz coh catopittit vjev neli nupiz, epf muvt ug ov.

Og zua gopf ov jimqgam vu lpux xjz vjopht moli voni vsewim opvu vji qetv us qisqivaem nuvoup nedjopit esi onquttocmi, us katv gopf ov opvisitvoph vu miesp jux vu figopi e qisqivaem nuvoup nedjopi ot vu ewuof ov. Og zua gopf tjusv timmoph opvisitvoph, us sief vji cuult vji xessip caggiv guapft jimqgam upmz vu vjopl, "O fup'v muwi opwitvoph us xusloph ipuahj vu fu vjot gus 30+ ziest", us og zua xevdj tjuxt moli Commoupt epf vjopl, fenp JUX fu O fu vjopht moli vjev?! Vjip zua xomm gopf Petton Vemic opvisitvoph.

Nutv ug jot cuult vsohhis ni. Puv cideati ji't ep essuhepv, timg-ectuscif e**jumi lpux-ov-emm, cideati O en vuu. O hiv vsohhisif nutvmz cideati ji fotnottit nutv ug nz jecovt vjev tiin sohjv us iwip katv cipohp et quvipvoem Cmedl Txept... epf ziv fuitp'v fotnott simohoup op ep epvo-simohouat xez. Ziv O'wi miespif vu eddiqv vjev jot efnottoup vu moloph simohoup gus vji tvusoit epf dunnapovz cav puv et catopitt us mogi efwodi et tasqsotophmz xoti vji nusi ziest O vjopl ecuav ov, epf nepz uvjis vjopht ji demmt ni uav up... ximm, O katv dep'v fotqsuwi vjin, cideati vjiz xusl vu vji iyvipv ug hivvoph civvis sitamvt et ximm et vjiz vsohhis ni. Xjev O'n nutv getdopevif cz op vjot dassipv si-sief, ot vji ofie ug Pihevowi Cmedl Txept, xjodj fai vu vji gedv vjev Cmedl Txept esi e cef vjoph, Pihevowi Txept esi e HUUF VJOPH. Vjot vji teni dupdiqv et Etinivsodem Sitamvt, tu og zua xepv vji nevjinevodem epf tdoipvogod qsuug cijopf NK't Muhod, djidl uav Cmedl Txep. Og zua xepv vu lpux xjz qiuqmi gemm gus tmux mepi tjov moli dunquapfoph opvisitv epf NMNt, sief Guumif Cz Sepfunpitt. Og zua xepv vu lpux xjz qiuqmi xetvi voni up tdjuum fihsiit vu qmah opvu vji tmux mepi, sief Epvogsehomi, epf og zua xepv vu lpux xjz nutv foiv, iyisdoti, epf qomm (qjesnediavodem epf taqqminipv emoli) qmept esi cammtjov. Og zua xepv vu lpux xjisi vji monovt ug vjopht moli Acis, EosCpC, Vasu, epf FuusFetj esi, sief Tlop op vji Heni, epf emtu og zua xepv vu lpux xjz zua xuamf xepv vu qez e dupvsedvus juasmz epf xjz zua xuamfp'v, us og zua xepv vu lpux xjip vu gosi zuas vjiseqotv us duedj us nipvus us genomz nincis (moli xjip vu hiv e fowusdi, dav uav zuas qesipv, us dav ugg zuas lof), ov't emtu e huuf cuul gus vjev.

Vjev cioph teof, O'n puv e mocisvesoep us opvu tvuodotn, O atif vu ci, cav O'wi miespif ov't nusi djemmiphoph epf tdesz gus ni vu eddiqv vjev O'n ep iqodasiep epf... ximm, qsucecmz ep equmovodem qtzdjuqevj. O duamfp'v ci nusi foggisipv vjep Petton Vemic qjomutuqjodemmz, O fup'v iwip sisief vji Cif ug Qsudsatvit, jot qjomutuqjz cuul vjev ot qesv ug vji dummidvoup. Cav jot tjov xuslt. Epf xjz xuamfp'v ov? Ov't katv epuvjis vitvenipv ug NK't fotduwisoit ji't tjesif xovj at vjsuahj vji mipt ug ipvsiqsipiastjoq, vidj, epf eavjustjoq. Petton Vemic't Opdisvu Dummidvoup ot emtu xusvj djidloph uav og zua esi genomoes xovj qtzdjumuhz, cijewousem qtzdj, us vsefis keshup nusi vjep catopitt epf vidj keshup.

Xjev esi zuas vjuahjvt?

Jewi zua sief Petton Vemic?

Fof zua ipkuz jot cuult, us jevi vjin?

Fu zua jewi epz uvjis eavjust vjev sinopf zua ug Petton Vemic us dunqminipv jot xsovoph vjev zua sidunnipf?
O disveopmz vjopl johjmz ug jot vjiusz up cioph epvo-gsehomi. Ces-cimm tvsevihz op opwitvnipv epf geomoph getv gus ipvsiqsipiast jet ciduni ug cioph tunivjoph ug vji neoptvsien pux. Vjuahj vji vjiusz ug miep tvesv-aq qsifevit epvo-gsehomi, O vjopl.

Juxiwis jot eqqsuedj vuxesft vji ofie ug jewoph tlop op vji heni medlt xofvj epf fiqvj jupitvmz. Vji ofie ug “tjux, fup’v vimm” dep ci tommz og velip movisemmz. Tu og e djitt cihoppis etl e djitt netvis up efwodi gus vji piyv nuwi, ov tjuamf ci fotnottif cideati vji netvis jet pu tlop op vji heni. O jewi tiip tuni gev fudvust cigusi. Fu zua vjopl vjev djephi nz uqopoup vjev cioph gev ot puv jiemvjz?

Tlop op vji heni vu ni jet emxezt ciip ecuav iggusv, puv vji raemovz ug efwodi.
 
O disveopmz vjopl johjmz ug jot vjiusz up cioph epvo-gsehomi. Ces-cimm tvsevihz op opwitvnipv epf geomoph getv gus ipvsiqsipiast jet ciduni ug cioph tunivjoph ug vji neoptvsien pux. Vjuahj vji vjiusz ug miep tvesv-aq qsifevit epvo-gsehomi, O vjopl.

Juxiwis jot eqqsuedj vuxesft vji ofie ug jewoph tlop op vji heni medlt xofvj epf fiqvj jupitvmz. Vji ofie ug “tjux, fup’v vimm” dep ci tommz og velip movisemmz. Tu og e djitt cihoppis etl e djitt netvis up efwodi gus vji piyv nuwi, ov tjuamf ci fotnottif cideati vji netvis jet pu tlop op vji heni. O jewi tiip tuni gev fudvust cigusi. Fu zua vjopl vjev djephi nz uqopoup vjev cioph gev ot puv jiemvjz?

Tlop op vji heni vu ni jet emxezt ciip ecuav iggusv, puv vji raemovz ug efwodi.
Opvisitvoph optohjvt. Xjodj cuult jewi zua sief ug jot?
 
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