I have a plan. Regarding Cryptos

[Ing]

Hi,
observing the last Bitcoin Bullrun, I began to deal ( not deal, but deal! Think about!) with cryptos.
Some went up quite fantastic. So a plan began to rise: what, if next bullrun will be similar? And I know more than last time?
When crypt will not be regulated or forbidden.
Before to say : sure my plan depends of many factors, but its a plan.

We can’t look at the next bull run, because its in the future. So the only way to look at it is the last and before that bull run.
The next one is predicted to be much less. Or more intense. No one knows!
So I only can fix my plan to the past. Make some deductions and correct my plan in the future.

So

I looked at a lot of coin charts and thought the following.

I need a special amout of money for retirement.
And I have some money to invest.
So what I saw: I need to have a factor of x 80! To retire.

First I looked at the coins : I may be lucky and have a factor x 50, when I buy one, or I have zero.
Too much lottery.

Second: I buy 10 statistically distributed coins. The result would be about a factor x20.

So I buy 10 different coins and in the end I have the invested money x20.

Thats not enough for my retirement.

So I looked at some 100 charts. Again and again. And I recogniced, that they rise nearly all quite similar. You nearly can lay them one over the other and they nearly are the same.

But. When I really layed them one over the other, I recognized one thing: one dimension is not the same : time!

So what, if I buy one coin, wait, until it rose some factor, than sell it and buy another, which is later on the timeline?

Ok, if you are still reading and see some value, read on. other not.

 

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[Ing]

I recogniced an other problem: How could I get coin, which will rise. Again the lottery factor rose.

Now. What, if I don’t buy one coin, but I buy several. Lets say I distribute my money on several, lets say 10 different coins.

So statistically I get now again a factor of x20 for the new invested
money.

Lets say the first coin I buy: I dont wait to rise it all the way, but only maybe x5.
So now I have the factors x5 ( first coin) , than x20 (the following 10 coins)

WOW! Its now x5x20= x80! Retired!

Well, may be I made a mistake in my thinking. Take a look at the charts!

 

[Ing]

Well, now I was thinking more.

If I buy 10 different coins. I wait, until one (Nr1) of them rises maybe x5. Than the amount of all is 9+5=14. I rose my money with the factor x1.4.
The 5 of Nr 1 I distribute on those, which havent rosen yet and one other.

Again I have 10 different coins.

I play that game some times. Maybe I succeed 5 times.

So I rose my money another factor : 1.4 **5=5,37

Annotation : with some margin x2 or x3 you can rise this factor again. When you are sure, that the coins will rise, some margin will be a calculated risk.

With a margin of x2, you here have , when one coin rises: 1x5x2 + 9 =19 !
So the factor is 1.9 ! The factor for doing that 5 times with 5 coins : 1.9**5=24,7 !

What will that be in the end?

 

[Ing]

So, when I finish my thoughts, I multiply the several factors:
In the beginning I buy the first coin. Surely that, which causes all the hype.
So I can have my first factor x5

Than I buy 10 coins and play the game I described. X24.7

Than I have 10 coins and let them run, until the bullrun is over. x20Thats : 5x24.7x20=2476!
Imagine, you have 10000€ before and afterwards about 24 m

I m nervous and you may look at coinmarketcaps, looking charts and tinker the factors a bit

Hope I gave some value

 

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[enchifred]

This is gambling, putting your money somewhere and HOPING it will X multiple. If it all worked out, you are correct, you could start with 10k euro and end up with 24M.

However real world trading does not work like that, there is so much more than just looking at market caps and guessing how many multiples they will do after some research. If it were this easy everyone would be rich. There are components such as risk, tax, strategy, emotions and most importantly your financial goals.

For example, on emotions: Let's say you are right, you have a coin with 5M Euros now, after doing a 50X. How do you expect to manage your emotions to SELL when the market is still going up? Chances are you haven't made many 6,7,8 figure financial decisions in your life, so it won't be easy to sell and manage your emotions (anxiety, FOMO, regret, etc.) Easy to say in hindsight you'll sell.

How will you manage to sell $5M of a coin without causing slippage?

How do you determine if a coin is worth putting money into, and if so, how much?

How will you ensure your winners cover your losers, AND still make a big profit?

All I'm saying is there's a lot more to trading than what you've described. Last thing you want to do is lose your capital before it even starts. It's a long term game.

If you really wanted to go into crypto, put time into learning trading, and do your due diligence on who and where to learn from.

P.S.
Most YouTube crypto "influencers" are in it for youtube ad money. Or they hold bags of a coin, and then shill to their followers without disclosing it (which is illegal most cases). Then they dump for a nice profit. They don't trade for a living, and thus the information they give away likely won't help you retire either.

You'll know who they are when they stop making videos when markets are down for an extended period of time.

 

[Ing]

Sure I thought about sence, too.

Thats no way to use the crypto technology in its intended way. I m sorry for that.
Everybody, who is interested in my described plan must now do his own work.
-determine, what coins he will buy
-determine, when he will buy and - more important- sell ( you are right, doing that on emotions is bad)
-determine an exit strategy, whe something goes wrong

And not invest before you know a bit about cryptos and
„the markets are down for an extended period of time“

 

[gryfny]

You're probably looking at the coins in the top 100 or even top 500 marketcap. Never forget that there are thousands of coins that went bust that you aren't looking at.

Try getting in on presales, ICO's or anything that can get you in early and/or at a significant discount. That will put you at an advantage in the market. Buying at market price and hoping to profit is 100% gambling.

 

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[Ing]

You're probably looking at the coins in the top 100 or even top 500 marketcap. Never forget that there are thousands of coins that went bust that you aren't looking at.

Try getting in on presales, ICO's or anything that can get you in early and/or at a significant discount. That will put you at an advantage in the market. Buying at market price and hoping to profit is 100% gambling.

you are right, but I found , that the coins on higher ranking are hard to buy/sell . Often you only can do it at uniswap with any pool.
And There is too much influence on the pool, when you want to purchase.
Imagine, you can t sell your coins because the pool is influenced too much.

Presales. I did t look into that area. Thanks

 

[spreng]

You're looking for a lottery ticket. Sell the lottery ticket if you want to get rich.

 

[Vasili27]

So, when I finish my thoughts, I multiply the several factors:
In the beginning I buy the first coin. Surely that, which causes all the hype.
So I can have my first factor x5

Than I buy 10 coins and play the game I described. X24.7

Than I have 10 coins and let them run, until the bullrun is over. x20Thats : 5x24.7x20=2476!
Imagine, you have 10000€ before and afterwards about 24 m

I m nervous and you may look at coinmarketcaps, looking charts and tinker the factors a bit

Hope I gave some value

If you really want to do that I would only put money in coins that will serve a utility. The new crypto age is coming and its inevitable. When I mean coins with utility I mean coins that serve a purpose, wether that be a coin that deals with smart contracts moving them from centralized to decentralized or a coin that deals with the blockchain infrastructure or moving money around the world. These will be where money is made, and does it seem like a lot of different coins are making people money now? yes they are but I personally don't think these will last the test of time. When the world makes transition alot of them will be left behind and the ones that serve a purpose will rise exponentially. For example a few of these are XRP or chainlink where governments, fincancial institutions, and corporations are buying in to these. For example many banking companies from Visa to Santandar are making deals with Ripple (XRP) because of its use. Or like chainlink which is being used all over the world and most notably the Chinese government.

 

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[Ing]

From July on, I invested some test money and analysed myself.
I thought, if the bullrull was still running, I would test it.
I had promising coins and my big problem actually was to find the tome of selling.
About 5 coins rose by 5 times in one or two days. I didn’t sell and blub, they were down 3 days later.

I have a wallet with any shitcoins promising x1000 and another with due diligated coins even recommended in this thread.
There is no difference in the performance.
I don’t know, if the coin/token choice is not so important for a short term holding.

 

[alord]

It depends largerly on how much you invest.

If your goal is making 1 mln $ out of crypto, investing 50k into crypto trying to 20X it's way more probable to happen than investing 5K and 200X it.

However, it's also way more probable that you will make this kind of money from a business where you have control over and potentially an hedge over your competitors. In a market like crypto or US stocks you likely don't have an edge over people who have more resources than you. In some industries you can have it.

Additionally, in some industries you might be competing with 5-10 strong competitors. In crypto you're competing against hundreds of thousands of traders.

Said that, I think there is an opportunity to use crypto as a multiplier of wealth when it comes to some of my spare funds (which would be sitting on the bank anyways.)

 

[Ing]

If someone is interested, here’s my test - portfolio:
( I do the writeup for me, but if you’re interested...)
Its a quite small amount, as I am not really sure, that the bullrun will continue this year or if the maximum is already over.

So I have 12 parts

Coin/Token. Worth ( in parts)

2xADA. 1.88
OXT. 1.3
FUN. 1.1
CFX. 1.1
BTCST. 1.1
CTSI. 1.1
BNT. 1.08
FMT. 1.03
VGX. 1.0
SHIB. 0.94
COTI. 0.93

SUM:12.56

I will continue, if there’s something interesting.
And I decided to set a stop limit as soon as the prize doubles.

edith: sold OXT.2.1
Sum 13.35

 

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[Ing]

Well, Crypto is harder than I thought.
First stagnation.
Someday I looked at the charts and at Reddit and than I changed my plan a bit.
I changed my portfolio some times and am now at
LRC 15
TLM 1.6
FTM 1.4
BNT 1.15
FUN 1.1
VGX 1
BTCST 1
Sum 22.25

And I feel a bit bad, that I didn’t stick to my plan. So I first refused togo into Shiba, when it boomed, and too late in LCR.

So in the end I don’t know, if it still has to do with my original plan.

 

[doster.zach]

I think everyone should research crypto so you know what blockchain is, but it seems you are just putting money on a roulette table at this point.

 

[pat9000]

I will continue, if there’s something interesting.
And I decided to set a stop limit as soon as the prize doubles.

And I feel a bit bad, that I didn’t stick to my plan. So I first refused togo into Shiba, when it boomed, and too late in LCR.

You set hard parameters and failed to adhere to them thanks to emotions. I highly recommend using a bot because all you're doing with a bot is removing the emotions...

 

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[Ing]

Thanks for your replys

 

[biophase]

Well you didn’t stick to your plan. Literally changed your mind after 14 days?

 

[Ing]

Well you didn’t stick to your plan. Literally changed your mind after 14 days?

I changed my plan a bit. I didn’t completely change it.
As my change resulted in a big Profit, I don’t know, if its really a change or just a correction.
I saw a big pump activity in SHIBA, which is the memecoin with the second large cap of the memecoins and I took some profit from that.

This sticks not to my plan, to wait, until my tokens (which selection I did carefully) rise and than put the money into the others, which didn’t rise jet. Because I sold some of them to invest in a more profitable token for a while.

I think, that is coverd by „adjustment“.

About14 days: I m sure, this bullrun, whis is my test phase, will end in December. So I only have a limited timespan. 2 weeks is a lot for me.

Thanks for your reply

 

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[Ing]

Regarding to the bullrun being over, a resume:
I got in too late. And I choose coins wrong in hindsight of profit.
All in all I can be happy that I got out with no loss in the end.
Following Reddit groups had been more effective. So beginning with cryptos on about the top of a bullrun is only rational for long time investing.
I failed on my plan.
Thanks

 

[Ing]

I m analysing and adjusting my plan.
My mistake seems to be, that I took the wrong tokens.
I now think, that the time from July to November can be seen as th aquivalent to the alt season.
Until May all the long established Cryptos made their run.
Oktober November mainly the game and meme token made a big gain.

I believe, that a valley will be in November 22. 23 will bring a decent gain of an average of about 200 or 300 %.
End of 23 will bring buy prices again for the 24/25 bullrun.

So I will observe the story, and when along the time my predictions come true, I ll act accordingly.

 

[Ing]

I m still watching.
To proof (for me) the way, I use shorts on eth futures. They bring about 25% per month since November. But I don’t have much in there.

Like you cant loose in a bullrun, you can’t in a bear with shorts. Thats what I want to proove for myself.

Some thoughts about cryptos, regarding profit, not crypto idealism.
The top market cap coins and token rise constantly from about half a year before halfing until about 10 months after halfing.

To get ridiculous rises, you must use ridiculous ways. So when you made a constant profit, to multiply while the bullrun you have to use the ridiculous meme coins. Depending on how much money you want to invest, you ll have to choose the vehicle of choice depending the market cap.
Meme coins have some a time point, where they 10x in some days and will fall again soon. A kind of self running pump and dump.
In September till November I tried buying several meme coins. And looking back, all of them had a 10x point. I wasn’t able to predict this and sold some too early and bought some too late.


Btw.: This is no investment advice! Using Cryptos for creating wealth is no way to recommend. You only may invest, what you can afford to loose.
For creating wealth, make a CENTS business!

 

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[Hong_Kong]

Its better to be on the other side of this equation. Its better to be the one starting an MLM rather than paying to join one. Its better to be launching cryptos than to pay to buy one. The real fastlane are the founding teams of those 10 coins that you bought.

Do you have an idea for a token you could launch?

 

[Ing]

Its better to be on the other side of this equation. Its better to be the one starting an MLM rather than paying to join one. Its better to be launching cryptos than to pay to buy one. The real fastlane are the founding teams of those 10 coins that you bought.

Do you have an idea for a token you could launch?

Its not done with creating token. The main thing is the marketing.
But thats another, different plan. And lounching a token makes more sence after the bear market is over.

 

[heavy_industry]

There is a scientific approach to investing called Quantitative Analysis.
It uses a combination of advanced mathematics, computer models and black magic to predict the most likely outcome of a financial asset.

Quantitative analysis is very difficult to do and requires a decade of education in mathematics and statistics. People that can do this successfully are often paid over $500k a year.

I've read most of the thread, and unfortunately there is nothing scientific about this approach.
It's very easy to get lost in hypothetical numbers and potential outcomes. But choosing some assets and hoping that they might go up 50 x is not a financial plan. It's gambling. It's wishful thinking.

 

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[Ing]

Well, on the road to adjust my plan, I m now shorting eth and btc.

To be exact: I don’t short directly, but I buy short futures on eth futures. Thats easier for me, saver and with less tax . But sure not as lucrative as direct shorting)

Why?

When you long or short, you need to have a knowledge in reading charts. And you need much practice, before you can avoid most of the mistakes.
And in the bearmarket, which I expect to last another 4 months ant least, you mistakes are soon forgiven.

For example eliminating your emotions.
An example:
Yeasterday I invested a sum in eth shorts. In the morning, eth fell, as it should. I set a dynamic stopp loss and waited. Suddenly the stopp loss sold with a 6.5% profit. But eth and btc went on falling. My emotions made me buying btc shorts immediately. And you know: btc rose again.
Now I could have done, what I said on top: crypto bearmarket forgives and in a week I d be in plus again.
Well I sold with a loss later reducing my today’s daily profit to 2.5.


Well, this now hasn’t to do expecially with my plan, but with Cryptos. I didn’t dare beginning that daytrader game in the stock market.
And I m a bit sad, I didn’t recognize that at the end of the bull market in November.

 

[Ing]

There is a scientific approach to investing called Quantitative Analysis.
It uses a combination of advanced mathematics, computer models and black magic to predict the most likely outcome of a financial asset.

Quantitative analysis is very difficult to do and requires a decade of education in mathematics and statistics. People that can do this successfully are often paid over $500k a year.

I've read most of the thread, and unfortunately there is nothing scientific about this approach.
It's very easy to get lost in hypothetical numbers and potential outcomes. But choosing some assets and hoping that they might go up 50 x is not a financial plan. It's gambling. It's wishful thinking.

You may be right. I don’t have a big scientific approach as I don’t have that pan because of the tech of crypto.

It doesn’t interest me, what you can do with a special project. The only thing is how is the market reacting on a token. So the merchandising of the team behind a token is more interesting for me than the tech of a token regarding the plan.

Look: when you invest a million half in Shiba Inu and half in Doge at the beginning of a bullrun. What will happen?
(Imagine : these are the 2 Memecoins with the highest marketcap. They are in the top 20 MC of all coins.
Its absolutely not interesting, if they are good for nothing.)
You wait, untill the forst one jumps, than invest in the other and wain, till this one jumps. 1mx5x10 = 50m
And both will jump. Once or twice. Maybe not 10x, but only 5x .
Maybe, when a special Twitter owner passes away and stopps twittering dog memes, it becomes a bit harder, but crowds will be the same in next bullrun.

Now you will come up with lottery again, I know. But its my plan. May be its a bad one, but its mine. If you don’t want to read it, just don’t read it.
Thanks.

 

[Ing]

Well, on the road to adjust my plan, I m now shorting eth and btc.

To be exact: I don’t short directly, but I buy short futures on eth futures. Thats easier for me, saver and with less tax . But sure not as lucrative as direct

Well, a short update.
As my plan is to multiply my initial investment, since some weeks I thought about stop shorting, but I was in a „trade“ already for 2 weeks.
Now the disadvantage of short futures on eth futures is, that they only can bought and sold, when stock market is open. I didn’t realise that as dangerous, but one weekend a relief rally started and I couldn’t sell my futures until Monday morning. So that was a big setback for me.
Now compared to the gains a crypto bullmarket can bring, the shorts game is ridiculous.
What I learned: shorting is dangerous.
-I first recognized that, when I sent 300 USD to Bybit and lost it within hours not setting stoplosses propperly.

-and now : no access to the assets on weekends and nights is careless.

Now I make some small short now and than and allways sell before 10 pm.


I tell this as not all is positive. And there was no need for that shorting.

 

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[Ing]

If someone remembers that thread and is wondering, if I m broke allready
No, not broke, but I think, I m too fearfull and don’t trust enough.
So what happened.

In July After looking at the chart of (inter alias) RVN for 1000 times, I thought it a good idea to invest in RVN shorttime. At least I didn’t dare to invest real money and only got some 1000 RVN for proof of concept. In September I sold for x3. Proof, But no real impact.

Now my main problem is to be patient and not to be greedy.
Rather I would just sink my stablecoins into any token and just wait.

At least I didn’t make no more losses.

 

[Ing]

I don’t make an update now in this thread, If some admin could push it to the Inside, I will update it in Mai or June.