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  1. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    you definitely have more experience than me, so I trust your analysis. That was just my thinking at the time. Still learning by doing, have lots to learn still.
  2. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    I chose to buy some SPX puts, I realize the benefit of selling vs buying. But the potential gain in buying offers more than selling, and risk is limited to the cost of the put. I expect quite a bit of volatility and selling you may have someone exercise the option and force a loss even though...
  3. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    completely agree with you. The princess cruise and S Korea will give us the best picture of this. but all early indicators are it is higher, but not as high as current estimates. Time will tell for sure. But things I do know that we don’t have to wait to determine, in Wuhan all their...
  4. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    if you cite something please provide the source as a direct link. I have seen no such claim from the CDC. The WHO just posted a mortality rate of 3.4%, which as I’ve stated in multiple prior posts is certainly high. How high, that is yet to be determined...
  5. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    Not sure, but I know the rate of lethality (mortality) of flu is 0.09% historically vs likely 1+% for CV. Also the prevalence of CV has been growing exponentially. Realistically there are already 1000’s or cases (mostly untested and undiagnosed) in the US already and growing daily. But that...
  6. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    Two (or more) things can be true at the same time. This is a huge risk to heath and well being, especially older people. It is also true that the reaction can and will have financial repercussions. we don’t need to dismiss one for the other to be true. In fact it is short sighted and...
  7. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    This virus is certainly more dangerous than the flu. you are confusing prevalence with lethality. right now the flu is much more prevalent than Coronavirus, but it is also much less lethal. However the prevalence of Coronavirus has been increasing, which if it reaches the levels of flu...
  8. GIlman

    Confusing correlation with causation

    Causation of success almost always relies on discipline and persistence. I have known zero successful people long term that didn’t have these traits. All those other things you mention, eating well, exercising regularly, waking up early. These are attributes often found in disciplined...
  9. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    I genuinely hope your right, but 80-90% having mild symptoms would not be a nothing burger. 10-20% hospitalized would completely overwhelm our medical system very quickly. 6 dead from one small nursing home in WA is highly concerning. I believe they said they had 55 residents. I don’t recall...
  10. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    I pretty much keep 100-150 rolls stocked all the time. At one point had 750 rolls, hey they were on a really good sale and figured I would use them eventually. Kinda funny it’s actually needed Now!!! Lol
  11. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    @VDP everyone does it different. I eat out a lot, so didn’t want a lot of spoilable food. Looking for really long shelf life. first I bought a grain mill, then bought items that would last for 30 years from the Mormon food storage warehouse, these are packed in tin cans and CO2 sealed...
  12. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    I was reading from the CDC site for healthcare workers about CV. You are being lied to about the value of n95 or greater masks. I believe they are just trying to conserve supply, which for me is a good thing since I work in hospitals, but it is not honest or true what they are advising the...
  13. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    Not likely. Flu is influenza virus vs corona virus. Two totally different species. There can be cross immunity between different strains of flu, depending on how much similarity to other flu viruses. one of the scary things about CV at the moment is that as it grows in the population, the more...
  14. GIlman

    Stock market Predictions with Corona

    HOT! 
    I personally doubt that quantitative easing can solve this problem. There is a huge unknown, will supply chains be disrupted for a significant amount of time and how much impact/people will be affected by the CV. if people can’t or won’t spend, then QE isn’t going to do anything. My gut...
  15. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    Based on the patterns I’ve seen, I have an interesting theory. Flu usually impacts the Old and the Young. This seems to spare the young < 10 years old. And there is huge geographical variability in the severity. So my theory is that some prior infection is predisposing people to sever...
  16. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    I’m not sure how you are calculating a rate of 0.07%. I’ve not seen any data to support that. The best guesstimate really is to watch South Korea. They are doing very comprehensive screening and surveillance. So they are picking up a lot (but not all) mild cases in their numbers. Of course as I...
  17. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
  18. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    if you heard that Your City Memorial hospital had a case of CoronaVirus, would you choose to go there for your care. I don’t know what the procedure to release this information to the public is, but I assume they go through several layers of testing first. I have heard that all positives are...
  19. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    I think there is likely much more of this than is being reported. I have been hearing reports of 4 cases in a hospital here in AZ. obviously at this point it is rumor, but I have pretty reliable sources. I’m trying to get more concrete confirmation, but would not be surprising at all. I...
  20. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    This disease shares symptoms with way too many other things, especially early on. So be careful of any presumptive diagnosis. I’m aware of 2 presumptive cases that turned out to not be. of course it could be positive, but the only way to know is a positive test. I would expect hundreds of...

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