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  1. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    A drop in the rate of increase is still an increase, it’s not that the epidemic is getting better it’s just that it is getting worse less quickly than before. I.e. the acceleration rate is less but it’s still accelerating. Basically the rate of transmissibility is what we term R0. R0 is not...
  2. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    exponential growth with a 5 day current doubling time. Assuming we have say 4,000 cases today (largely undiagnosed and found be far in excess of this). +5 days = 8,000 +10 days = 16,000 +15 days = 32,000 +20 days = 64,000 +25 days = 128,000 +30 days = 256,000 +35 days = 512,000 +40 days =...
  3. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    hopefully they can produce ventilators at a rate sufficient to supply demand around the world. In that regard being an early country or early patient has its advantages. There is slack in the system to pull from.
  4. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    Just left the hospital. There is security at every exit. Zero visitors are being allowed in, patients and staff only. This is a huge 800 bed hospital. This is not in Maricopa
  5. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    Actually, no...I don’t think it has anything to do with how SK is handling it compared to other countries, at least at the level of the patient it’s very smart to be testing, it picks up early cases and can help slow the spread by limiting their exposure and risk of infecting other people. SK...
  6. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    Not all physicians are smart and rational. Actually when I went to medical school it was somewhat depressing how many mediocre and downright stupid people were accepted in. Medical school admissions has become a very touchy feely game. There are lots of soft things that a whole bunch of weight...
  7. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    Physicians are pretty good at knowing when people are drug seeking. It’s kinda like with your kids, they think they are being sneaky, but your pretty much onto most of them from the get go. You hear typical reasons and excuses, it’s actually comical most the time how obvious it is. Plus...
  8. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    Disclaimer: none of the following is intended as medical advice for any particular patient or as a recommendation for treatment or diagnosis. I am not your physician and anything contained here is not intended as individualized medical advice or should it be construed to be advice for any one...
  9. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    it’s very clear you don’t read and integrate anything people say. You keep spouting a death rate in Korea of 0.6%, which is patently misrepresented for reasons @JScott and myself have pointed out many times. I realize there is both positive and negative skew, but as I’ve said from the...
  10. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    Again, cite your sources. You previously said the CDC stated a death rate as low as 0.1%, which turned out to be HHS (a political organization), and directly accountable to the president. Think they might have a reason to minimize this. We are big trump supporters, MAGA, but on this one...
  11. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    Yes, in Maricopa. I disagree with any such action, it is non-sense. And what do you do if there are several infections in different people overtime. How long and how often would you do any quarantine. I think there are some serious unknowns about CV, and some worrying indications about it...
  12. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    There is an inherent problem to state Korea's death rate at 0.6%, it's something we refer to as Lead Time Bias. Basically if you test earlier you will increase the denominator which will decrease your percent because you are including people from an earlier phase. As @JScott pointed out many...
  13. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    The data is already there being collected. Not so much an implantable chip. Your cellphone is basically a tracking beacon. The cellphone companies know where you and everyone else is pretty much all the time. When was the last time your cellphone was further than 30 ft from you? Its not much of...
  14. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    Ironically, it appears Italy will end up being the country that really infected the world. Based on the diamond princess and South Korea data, it appears likely the death rate is around 1%. using the deaths in Italy and extrapolating back, one would expect the over 50,000 people in Italy are...
  15. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    My replies aren’t meant to be personal. Sorry if it came across that way. My replies are my own analysis, meant for anyone reading this thread and trying to sort out what’s going on. sorry if it came across like I was attacking you personally. That wasn’t my intention. Unfortunately one...
  16. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    This type of argument makes no sense. It’s what is referred to as Anecdotal Evidence. It is one data point, unverified, and ultimately unrelated to the actual question at hand. I.e. your sisters nurse friends opinion of the CV is in no way correlated to the actual risk of CV. The risk of...
  17. GIlman

    My Personal Warning Alarm On Coronavirus - 1 MILLION+ Deaths

    HOT! PEOPLE 
    South Korea has the most solid numbers of any nation to date. The current mortality (death) rate is 0.7%, but this is misleading because this is of all comers. From people sick for weeks to those who just barely got sick and we’re diagnosed today-some of which will certainly die before they...
  18. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    that may be true, but you really have to stratify populations by age, etc...doesn’t really change my assertion, you have to look between like cohorts of patients. the whole point was that being vaxinated decreases your risk of getting the disease to begin with, which as a population decreases...
  19. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    Here is the thing. Regardless of the numbers reported or postulated. Hospitals in China and Italy have been overrun with serious and critical patients with corona virus. This even as the total number infected has been a small proportion of the population. Heck, China built an extra 2600 bed...
  20. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    Death rate would be the same. Vaccines typically decrease the incidence and prevalence. But the death rate is a percentage of those infected who die regardless of the total # infected. However, if the prevalence increases, with a fixed death rate, then the total killed increases in proportion...

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