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  1. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    sorry I read it a very different way. Dangers of written communication, tone and context sometimes matter. Your post came across to me exactly opposite of that. My apologies for misinterpreting what your wrote.
  2. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    There is zero evidence to support your position this is a hoax or political attack, this is a rapidly spreading severe disease. Where is your proof, you have none. Just an empty statement as if it’s fact. I just got off the phone with a friend in the New England area. They told me that they...
  3. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1257852/Italy-coronavirus-intubating-elderly-pandemic-china-hospitals-Nadine-Dorries This certainly hits some locations more Than others, but the evidence is pretty strong that horrifying things are happening from this illness. Yes this is anecdotal...
  4. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    That would be an extremely low flu season. Are you sure it’s not 270,000 hospitalizations. Usually the flu impacts many many millions each year. CFR is = deaths / number of cases. for flu they estimate it because we have lots of data and years of experience that if there are X laboratory...
  5. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    I’m actually not making an assertion one way or the other. I’m saying in the absence of data that making any assumption is risky. I was just pointing to other data that would not line up with @Vigilante statement. But even my statement is not a valid basis to make any projection. the data...
  6. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    I appreciate the discussion and debate. Well meaning dialogues are always valuable as far as I’m concerned. The only way we can understand were people are coming from is to have the discussion to begin with.
  7. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    you very well could be correct, but it is simply a“guess” you are making, there is no actual data to support this. Without serological data of immunity I can’t take this into consideration. areas in the US that have been doing testing and have lots of testing, I.e. NYC, the positive testing...
  8. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    It seems to me that there are two patterns of thought I am seeing. People seem to fall into one camp or the other. One is a point analysis, look at this point in space and time, here was the outcome so we can believe that this representation in time should hold at other points in time and...
  9. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    So declining numbers in 2 places under extreme quarantines? There are so many unknowns, what Happens as the quarantines are relaxed? We don’t know the future and there is so much more to play out in this saga in every country. It is extremely premature to make any bold statements how any country...
  10. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    I don’t understand the logic of your argument. Wuhan was locked down when then knew of 422 known infections. Certainly more were infected than they knew about. But they have been in quarantine for 2+ months. Why not extrapolate to all of China’s 1+ billion people and make a statistic that...
  11. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    yeah, I don’t understand this at all. I keep asking, anyone, tell me how we are different than Italy, all I have got is that they have lots of people over 80. reports are that hospitals are filled with 30-60’s and older people are being often turned away to die. We have lots of old people here...
  12. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    Wuhan’s reported death rate was 3.4%. If just 100 million in the US were infected assuming that rate that would be 3.4 million. Granted, death rate can and does vary widely based on many factors. But just saying that 1.5 million deaths if enough are infected is not unrealistic, and baring...
  13. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    I saw recently they are fast tracking a test through the FDA to determine immunity to coronavirus, I.e. you previously got infected and have recovered. This will be invaluable, and then you can know for sure one way or the other.
  14. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    Yes, that’s a reasonable argument. But the question in my own mind is, are we willing through inaction for the death rate to be 3-5x greater per 1000 infected due to lack of medical resources. This includes both young and old. Outcomes are simply worse and leads to much higher percent infected...
  15. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    Wuhan took drastic measures to curb it, as did large swaths of China, so we can’t say if projections were wrong or just averted due to extreme action. Your point is well taken though. What we really need is a country to do absolutely nothing as a control of inaction. It’s hard otherwise to say...
  16. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    It will be interesting to see in the next 10-14 days how attitudes shift one way or the other. It’s hard to see at this point how NYC, WA, and/or CA don’t become tipping point sh*t shows. Public opinion appears to have shifted hard in Italy and abroad as real #’s pile up in their borders. Anyone...
  17. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    All very good points. Certainly it’s very hard to make any decisions right now since there is a 3-4 week lag between the decision we make and seeing the effect of that decision. Then if we don’t like the outcome of the first decision we are in an even worse starting point as far as the disease...
  18. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    yes, there is blame here. But realize a huge part of the issue is regulation. I’m not sure, but I’m guessing, that like many products n95 and other masks have an expiration. So hospitals and others don’t any too much stock of things on hand because if they expire, they have to be wasted. do...
  19. GIlman

    RECESSION-PROOF Business Models?

    HOT! 
    Refinancing may not all be because of need, but quite a bit for opportunity. I started looking at refi rates because the fed was lowering the funds rate. Ironically refi rates have gone up as the fed has reduced rates, I’m not in lending so this is pure speculation, but I’m wondering if it’s...
  20. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    I see the national guard was deployed overnight to California, Washington, and New York. Does anyone know what they are doing? What is their role right now?

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