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  1. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    The problem with this is we don’t know how much of a problem this is. It contaminates the data. Is this 10, 100, 1000+. All we can say is there is a positive skew to the death rate. The question is how large that skew is. This is always the problem with the government getting involved...
  2. GIlman

    Buy land and build Off-Grid home in California - Is it Possible on a Budget?

    HOT! REAL ESTATE 
    @SteveO what part of Utah?
  3. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    cost?
  4. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-prisons-testing-in-idUSKCN2270RX This is likely the reason the models were so wrong. The asymptomatic population was unknown, and based on this study it’s about 20 asymptomatic per symptomatic case. Of course some of these asymptomatic...
  5. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    Do you have a link to some news article about the gun law in Canada. I see news of them banning AR15, not all semi auto rifles. Yes I realize that the difference between an AR15 and any semi auto rifle is largely cosmetic, and that this is a slippery slope to total gun bans. But I’m just...
  6. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    History repeats itself. This feels like we are entering a new version of the dark ages. When politicalLy correct opinion dictates what acceptable science is, society loses its enlightenment. Ironically it appears that the henchmen of the new dark ages will be the giants of the Information...
  7. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    Doctors are terrible at predicting when someone will die, as a group with similar patterns of illness we can give a statistic like 55% dead in 3 years. But as an individual, their prognostication is terrible. I’ve seen people with cancer die days after being told they had 6-12 months left...
  8. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    The WHO is not unique. It’s why I approach anything any expert says with extreme caution. People have biases, both intentional and blind unintentional biases. The scientific community is not welcome to all opinions, they have acceptable consensus, and fund and promote research based on the...
  9. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    Here is something I wrote in another thread 10/19/2019, which in light of current events pretty much sums up my opinions on a lot of things. But, @Bekit I will offer my explanation for the infection vs death paradox you brought up. This is my best explanation, but part of the problem from...
  10. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/27/us/politics/democratic-primary-canceled-coronavirus.html Interesting that the presidential primary in NY is being canceled even though people are going to the polls to vote for other primary candidates. Most polls are open anyway, but no presidential primary...
  11. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    This is a quote from Economics in One Lesson by Henry Hazlit. “The government lenders, on the other hand, are either those who have passed civil service examinations, and know how to answer hypothetical questions hypothetically, or they are those who can give the most plausible reasons for...
  12. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    This has been very true for some viral infections, that outcome is related to viral exposure load. This is thought to be true in this illness too, but I haven’t found a good source that has done the analysis. There are a couple things with variolation, first you have to prove that outcome with...
  13. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    Chris, I think for myself and a lot of others here, the question isn’t about whether we bend the curve or if we have a short term effect. The questions is what the long term game plan is and what difference in the disease we have really achieved long term even though we have bent the curve in...
  14. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    Agree on most of your points. Although I’m not going to call this a scam, I think it’s more just likely confirmation bias failing to adequately consider new data and evidence. Although I see this more on the side of effectiveness of policy. This is a serious illness in a significant number...
  15. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    This is the exact reason I’ve been extremely skeptical of climate change policies. They call for extreme measures, costing trillions, disrupting industries, and requiring regulations that stifle innovation. No one knows how changes to global temperature will impact anything, they are all...
  16. GIlman

    “You CANT be anything you set your mind to”

    MINDSET 
    Just because you don’t go to college, doesn’t mean your likely to be successful without extensive education. Education doesn’t have to come from college or schooling. Education is really just accumulation of new knowledge and skills however they are acquired, which can come from many sources -...
  17. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    Unfortunately the collective of experts are often wrong and change their opinion as time goes on. The WHO, CDC, NIH have been anything but consistent or accurate in their positions, models, or predictions. It’s much easier to do a retrospective look to determine what DID happen in the past than...
  18. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    Most the evidence in the USA points to 0.5-1% mortality. About 5-10x more deadly than “typical” flu. The question is more complex though. What is the rate of infection, what are the long term health effects like kidney failure. Say it’s 10x flu. That could lead to 50-100x the deaths over a...
  19. GIlman

    Photos from the Bunker (Our Fastlane Photo Journal)

    HOT! 
    Day 39 of the quarantine, people are maybe getting a little goofy.
  20. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    I agree, that is disgusting and sloppy. One of the problems with government getting involved is that it often creates perverse incentives. Remember when the federal government said that 100% of covid care costs would be covered? Not to hard to see how that can create a problem of characterizing...

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