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  1. GIlman

    Pilot license?

    OFF-TOPIC 
    Small planes are about as safe as you are as a pilot. The more risks you take the more likely to have an accident. Biggest risks: 1) Bad weather 2) Night flying 3) Too much airplane for skills. I bought a diamond da40, because it is gentle, and hard to stall. They don’t burn when they...
  2. GIlman

    I'm a Doctor Who Has C0VlD-19. AMA

    NOTABLE! HOT! 
    You are correct, it is 0.4%. From the data I have seen the estimated IFR (infection fatality rate) is 0.15%. Typical flu is reported around 0.06%, but obviously varies year to year based on the strain. So covid is between 2-3x more deadly than flu. Do not confuse IFR with case fatality rate...
  3. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    Dave, this is spot on. A problem I see is that people can only believe one thing at a time. Covid is real and for some reason some people draw a bad card when they get it and get horribly ill. Last week alone I saw 5 new cases of horrible covid pneumonia in people 25-45, one had a blood clot in...
  4. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    There are several confounding variables in percent positive. Better pretest selection for instance, meaning maybe they are getting better at screening for likely covid to select who is tested. Maybe the virus is weakening overtime and so the infection rate is going up but hospitalizations going...
  5. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    No idea, I guess when the “testing” positive trends down. But for that to happen testing levels need to be steady state. As an aside, I believe we are slowly entering into a new form of the dark ages, where the truth and allowed narrative is shaped and suppressed. Not by religious ideology as...
  6. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    Thought people might find this interesting. This is the number of new cases by day in Arizona. This is the number of hospitalizations one Arizona by Date. This is the number of deaths by day. I post these because the narrative being pushed by the media and some heath policy makers...
  7. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    Finally some good news for people that get severely sick with COVID. A large double blinded study which is well designed, out of the UK has been looking at several different treatments, they found that Dexamethasone, a cheap and readily available steriod, has proven to be useful in decreasing...
  8. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    Remember the careful 3 phase opening plan. instead we went from phase 0 to level 10 in an instance. Kinda find it funny that I haven’t heard the word Fauci in a whole 7 days. On the flip side. This is a researchers dream. Gonna find out if the theories of social distancing and quarantine were...
  9. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    With the assault of Covid, then looting, makes one wonder if this will push even more business to Ecom instead of retail.
  10. GIlman

    What's your Lambo? What's your WHY or PURPOSE?

    NOTABLE! CHAT 
    Right now I have a DA40 XLS, so the DA62 or DA50 is a logical step up. PC-12 would be awesome, or an Epic. TBM is high on my dream list too. Depends on your mission. Problem with aircraft though is no matter what you have unless it’s like a g550, you can always envision having more. But...
  11. GIlman

    MacBook Air or Dell XPS 13 Laptop for programming?

    HOT! OFF-TOPIC 
    You can program on either, but depending on the stack you intend to deploy to, there are advantages to mac or PC. If you intend to deploy to .net servers, I would program on PC, because you can setup the native environment on your laptop. If you are deploying to linux based servers, you can...
  12. GIlman

    Minneapolis (and spreading) Riots, Civil Unrest

    HOT! 
    This!!! This moment in history is being used by those that wish to do criminal acts with impunity. Are many cops acting bad, yeah they are, but one bad does not justify another - on either side.
  13. GIlman

    Minneapolis (and spreading) Riots, Civil Unrest

    HOT! 
    Wow, really. So I say “a minority of the protestors are thugs”, and you dishonestly quote “minority thugs” as if I was saying minorities were thugs. That’s outright dishonest and manipulative on your part. It shows bad intent simply to shape a narrative, not to have an honest debate/discussion...
  14. GIlman

    Minneapolis (and spreading) Riots, Civil Unrest

    HOT! 
    Do you read what people write or just emotionally react? I never said I intended or encouraged those things. It is what I expect will happen because people won’t sit idly forever while innocent people and businesses are attacked by thugs. Not all protestors are thugs, but anyone using the...
  15. GIlman

    Minneapolis (and spreading) Riots, Civil Unrest

    HOT! 
    This comment will probably get removed, but I’m gonna post it anyway. These scenes in my mind point to one of many reasons that the right to bear arms shall not be infringed was put in the constitution. Next time you hear that there is no legitimate reason a person should own an AR15, or high...
  16. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    Agreed, my point being that in a complex system with an infinite number of variable, that without a control it is impossible to show correlation and causation are the same thing. They could be, but you are speculating on that effect. Sweden is the closest we have to a control and they did not...
  17. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    Nope!! I’m saying the effect on the data presented, or any effect at all, from the lockdowns is unknown. If the majority of new infections occurred from people sheltering at home, as demonstrated in NYC, then the lockdowns may have actually exacerbated the rise in infections. Not reduced it...
  18. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    Work?? Have you truly reduced them? Or did you just spread them out over a longer period of time? Did even truly spread them out over time, or was that just the natural course the disease was meant to take? Correlation does not mean causation. There are literally 1000’s or correlated...
  19. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    Define what “work” means in the first place. Also it’s impossible to prove anything without a control group to compare to. You just have a pretty graph of data. Without a comparison of another outcome doing the opposite of what we did you can’t prove anything. Would the control group have...
  20. GIlman

    The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

    HOT! 
    Another thing that is annoying as hell, is people running around talking about herd immunity as the end point to open things up. Herd immunity right now is not really a useful concept. It is a simply a measure of how many people have got infected and recovered. At some point when a significant...

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