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  1. C

    Stock Market Discussion, Chat About the Latest Market Action

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    Stock prices can be simplified using kolmogorov complexity. Where the causal elements of the price can be simplified and updated. Cardinality is the very essence of the duality of simplicity and complexity. Where your simplification now enjoys a more coherent category and elemental parameter...
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    Stock Market Discussion, Chat About the Latest Market Action

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    Like clockwork. LOL Geopolitics and headlines made no sense yet market V-recovers and VIX comes down. LOL
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    Stock Market Discussion, Chat About the Latest Market Action

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    That event is guaranteed to happen. We all have an appointment with that event. We just don’t know what the date is. It’s like our death. The question is what the catalyst will be and what one should do before, during and after the event. I’m no expert, but I don’t think your supposed to hold...
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    Stock Market Discussion, Chat About the Latest Market Action

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    I think so too, a crack-up boom is right around the corner. There is still time, which is good news because you can buy hard assets now if you missed the boat.
  5. C

    Stock Market Discussion, Chat About the Latest Market Action

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    My guess is at some point, even if nothing is resolved. The entropy of war will wane and the market will just not care anymore and just go up. lol
  6. C

    Stock Market Discussion, Chat About the Latest Market Action

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    If you look at the SP500 ^Skew index it’s at 144. Usually it drops down big to around 129 or 132. That’s when smart money jumps in on Calls and the market bottoms. Even smart money was skeptical about this rally. It doesn’t mean it’s always true, it just usually does that.
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    Stock Market Discussion, Chat About the Latest Market Action

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    If that’s the case then I’m screwed. LOL I’m all in on SPY calls to the tune of thousands. Hoping for a Vienna surprise. lol
  8. C

    Stock Market Discussion, Chat About the Latest Market Action

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    The ^Move index which measures treasury yield volatility went up 28.24% today. You take the "rule of 16" and divide 108 by 16 and you get 6.75 basis points per day as an expected daily move. You can do the same with the VIX. A 16 VIX means I can expect 1% daily moves.
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    Stock Market Discussion, Chat About the Latest Market Action

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    They say the oil that flows through the strait of hormuz is only 20%. It feels more like 40%. lol Probably because of all the money laundering. That appears to be what the market is pricing in. There doesn’t appear to be any probability weight assigned to any other outcome.
  10. C

    Stock Market Discussion, Chat About the Latest Market Action

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    This is the Robinhood smartphone app. My primary account is at TastyTrade. Although their mobile app sucks. The charts don’t even work. Robinhood is actually better in that regard. This account at Robinhood is an account I recently opened to gamble/speculate with options. Which has had a...
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    Stock Market Discussion, Chat About the Latest Market Action

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  12. IMG_0569.webp

    IMG_0569.webp

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  13. C

    Stock Market Discussion, Chat About the Latest Market Action

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    No, buy index calls or sell index puts or buy stock.
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    Stock Market Discussion, Chat About the Latest Market Action

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    In my opinion all of this geopolitical turmoil is worth 30-40 VIX. Based on the data, it takes VIX on average 7 days to retrace 50% down from a big up move of 25% or more. This being 41 observations. Markets don’t care if WW3 breaks out or if the middle class is annihilated. It only cares...
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    Stock Market Discussion, Chat About the Latest Market Action

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    The Bond Volatility on Friday was a big tell for me. ^Move index was up 16% on Friday. The trade desk at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York fell asleep. LOL
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    Stock Market Discussion, Chat About the Latest Market Action

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    Not too shabby, I guess.
  17. IMG_0544.webp

    IMG_0544.webp

    • CosmicMind
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  18. C

    Stock Market Discussion, Chat About the Latest Market Action

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    What you are referring to I believe is called syntactic information. A computer program uses syntactic information and it has no meaning or emotion. It just executes. On the other hand semantic information has meaning and emotion. It’s people cheering and yelling at a roulette table. It’s...
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    Stock Market Discussion, Chat About the Latest Market Action

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    Yeah, I guess you can say that. Fear that I’m just “lucky” and not actually good at this. I’m not using any kind of backtested system or model. Just my own naked eye and gut instincts. My best assessment of up or down market. I do obviously look at other indicators across the board like bond...
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    Stock Market Discussion, Chat About the Latest Market Action

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    Those of you that are curious, the Robinhood account now has a $18,496 realized profit. A total of 11 out of 11 trades were profitable. It took 3 weeks. This is probably it for me. I’ll look at doing something else with the money, maybe just buy stock. The Robinhood account is now a $21,000...

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