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Your Best and Worse Defenses for Inflation...

MJ DeMarco

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Here are my best defenses, and worse defenses for inflation, in order of strength.

This, of course, is purely my opinion based on 50+ years of experience on this planet Earth.

Feel free to comment, add your thoughts, or add your rankings.

And then, adjust your strategy now and in the future.

Notice how these strategies all fall-in line with a Fastlane strategy.

BEST DEFENSE (IN ORDER OF POWER)ACTIONABLE DEFENSE
A businessRaising prices.
Rental propertyRaising rents.
A specialized skillRaising your return on labor rental
Real estateNone, but creates a long-term preservation of buying power
Personal influenceIncrease that rates at which you exert influence (A YouTube channel with 1 million subscribers can help you beat inflation!)
A sales jobSell more at higher prices through indirect association of the patriarch business
Hard assets and commoditiesBuy gold, silver, gas, hard assets.
Commodity investmentsBuy commodity assets on an exchange, like DBC, futures, etc.
Stockpiling suppliesBuy life's necessities and store for later user
A money systemIncrease return on cash via raising interest rates.
A part time jobIncrease return on your time through higher labor costs
WORST DEFENSEACTIONABLE DEFENSE
A government paycheckNothing.
A pension, social securityNothing.
A salaried jobNothing.


Feel free to add in anything I might have forgotten!

Or add your thoughts or opinion.
 
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Johnny boy

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That's the beauty of inherent value. A business provides an inherent value. You trade useless paper for it and use the useless paper to scale up your ability to provide inherent value to more people.

You are always trading in terms of whatever the current placeholder for value happens to be.

Years from now when it costs $79 for a gallon of gas, it will cost $2,370 a month to get your small-medium yard cut, and we will pay over $300 an hour for employees = same margins, same profits adjusted for inflation, same lifestyle and relative income, just different numbers.

My form of money is in terms of customers. I don't think I need a million for a million dollar house. I need 300 customers worth of income to qualify for the mortgage on that type of house. The dollar amount is now irrelevant.

The only threats are a change to the inherent value. The actual supply and demand of the things that affect your industry.
 
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MJ DeMarco

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Was half expecting cryptos to be in the actionable defenses list....

We only have records of crypto and inflation coexisting one time in history... NOW.

How has it done?

An asset class that is down 50-70% isn't a store of buying power.

That's why it's not on list.

However due to a limited history, that could change.
 
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MJ DeMarco

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Inflation is still running hot, and if you look at prices on the ground, it is pretty clear.

Janet Yellen recently stated she regretted using the statement "transitory" to describe inflation and its plight -- as if the deeply sheltered bureaucrat took time to reflect on the real prices on the ground versus the highly manipulated government reports.

I have not seen much movement on pricing downside and everything is still expensive.

Interesting note: I put a $1.79M offer on a house in Arizona 3 years ago (before moving to Utah) and lost the bid to a bigger offer, $1.85M.

I just saw that same house up for sale again today, asking price?

$4,700,000.
 

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Best defense is owning a business that supplies an inelastic demand or part of a supply chain of an inelastic demand.

As far as existing money… Protecting against inflation and protection against what happens when the fed fights inflation are two different things. Inflation is way less scary than widespread corporate bankruptcy, cratering housing market, and massive unemployment.

Add to that the contrarian responses to news can be stronger than the actual news. It’s anyone’s guess what the hell happens next, which is why I trimmed up HARD. I didn’t like the amount of chance I was leaving things up to. Hope isn’t a business plan.

Good news comes out… “OMG the fed is going to tighten harder now!” Bad news comes out… “we are so screwed unless they stimulate! Wait… Could they stimulate now?”
Screw that socialist mess.

I played the first half of this year very nicely. I was slightly positive. Gold, oil, and guns. Then I got caught up in the recent fools rally and bought some stuff I thought sounded like a bargain. Got hit pretty hard on that.

Right now I only have metals, oil and a bunch of cash. It’s unfortunate that the place I feel most comfortable at the moment, with the fed serial manipulation, is the stupid dollar. I know they want it that way.

I’m working on adding a line to my industrials company and that I would like to have well capitalized, but I also can write my ticket with OPM so I haven’t decided on that yet.
 
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CaptainAmerica

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The only thing I'd add to the list is real community connections. We live in rural Oregon, and already had a small SHTF event during the #AlmedaFire. Our connections saved us. Books, generators, whiskey, ammo, propane - we had a line on all of it. We realized in a very tangible way that talking to Jake the garbage collector and Michelle the weird farmer really paid off. So, yes, if things really go south economically, we still have a small circle of people that we can trade favors, skills, and information, and goods.
 

Xeon

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Was half expecting cryptos to be in the actionable defenses list....
 

IceCreamKid

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Do you think if you had done afluent neighborhoods but gotten less rent as a ratio of purchase price (often I see on zillow it doesn't scale after average apartment rental price in the area) you would have had less repairs/vacancies?
Probably, but I'll never know. The major mistake was I didn't vet the property management company well enough. They have been around 20 years and had a good reputation, but secretly sold their biz while still keeping the brand name. The new owners will rent your property to anyone with a pulse. I've had multiple occurrences where a new renter moved in and within a month they stopped paying rent.

Now I am considering getting back in and being more long term focused and not necessarily worrying about cash flow from rent so I'd appreciate your perspective.
This is just my perspective, but I wouldn't go back into real estate because watches are:
  • More profitable. 15-20% per month profit if you stay active
  • Faster speed of transaction than real estate because there's no loan approvals, inspections, appraisers, etc. With real estate I'm guessing the fastest you can buy a property is 30 days. With watches you can buy and sell one in 24 hours.
  • You have more control over the value of the asset as opposed to being reliant on market forces
  • It opens you up to a higher quality network
  • It's fun and has history to it. Here's my daily watch from my birth year:PXL_20240314_182918699.jpg
 

YanC

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Raising rents might not be possible, there might even be governmental restrictions that prevents you from raising rates.

Or even worse, the green people come up with new regulations and do not allow you to rent your property out, because it does not meet the current energy saving guidelines.
The problem if you start thinking in terms of what the government and their friends may do or not do, is that you're likely to do nothing as there is no safe escape.

History has shown countless times that they gladly change laws to suit their wants and needs and that they have no problem shutting down businesses, seizing gold, implementing foreign exchange controls or "blocking" prices. So yes, they may as well regulate rents even more and make short term rental illegal while they are at it.
 
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lludwig

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I agree with @MJ DeMarco recommendations, but we are still F*cked. With a 9.1% CPI for July, these options will just make things suck a little less.

In real terms, none of this will keep up with a 9.1% CPI, especially with the current valuations.
 
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IceCreamKid

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I've increased my carpet cleaning pricing by 50% over a span of 3 years. There was initially some resistance, but clients now seem to just accept that obscenely higher prices are the way of life. I don't know how the common paycheck to paycheck American is surviving in today's world.

I'm currently in the process of exiting real estate and transferring all of the funds to high end watches. My watches have always outperformed everything else I've ever invested in.

My rental property portfolio has taken an absolute beating in the past 3 years because I didn't diversify enough. My fault for only investing in blue collar neighborhoods. Lots of money lost due to vacancies and repairs, but big lessons learned.
 
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IceCreamKid

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Do you tend to focus on newly-released watches or vintage? And what brands do you see performing best (I've heard Rolex Daytona's skyrocketed over the past few years and same with Patek Nautilus)
I prefer newly-released because vintage requires a lot of experience to determine value. Rolex, Patek, and Audemars Piguet are the best IMO, but you have to be careful which models you buy because some are valued purely on hype similar to Beanie Babies from the 1990's.

Wouldn't it still be impacted by supply/demand? Or is it less "efficient" than say Real Estate because prices can vary widely depending on condition, release year, etc.?
Supply/demand still matters, but you can influence the value similar to how car dealerships do:
  • Buy scratched up watches at a discount then polish it to look new
  • Take amazing photos
  • Offer a warranty
  • Offer a buyback program
  • Add a different bracelet/strap to make it stand out
You can see returns of 50-100% if you buy rare models. For example pretend there are only 5 units of a certain model released and only 1 is currently for sale. If you buy the one for sale, you now control the market. The downside is it can take a while to find a buyer, but if you get to enjoy the piece while you have it then who cares.
 

IceCreamKid

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I think my being based in Germany is what's contributing to this doom and gloom attitude, with the weak Euro and structural weaknesses here. So I'm working on a move to the U.S. to at least swim with the inflation current. Living in Europe feels not just like swimming against the current, but doing it in a different river that's slowly running dry.
I feel exactly the same as you, but I live in California. Inflation + corrupt politicians are ruining the state and I am now at a point where I'm considering leaving. My house is worth $1.3M and I don't feel safe walking around outside. The homeless zombies are multiplying here because fentanyl is cheaper than heroin and 50x stronger.

Basically, if you have a B2C business you are more or less F*cked after some point, because wages are way behind inflation.

Much easier with B2B. Price increases just go down the supply chain until they hit some B2C sucker at the end of the line, who will then slowly go bankrupt.
It took me multiple failures to learn not to sell to normal people in B2C. The margins are thin and they spend so much time/energy trying to negotiate every penny down. These people will scream and create chaos over a tiny amount of money. Not worth it.

Today the only move I see that makes sense in B2C is selling to rich men with an ego. This was a factor in my decision to shift my real estate holdings into watches. The short term goal is to put my money into a safer and more predictable asset than real estate. The long term goal is to ultimately create a biz similar to Home - WatchFund

I'm worried for the future of my country. I feel like I'm seeing this get exponentially harder for the common man in real-time.

1710747847865.png
 

YanC

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Great list. First time going through this given my age obviously, but I started preparing for it a few years ago. I'm doing #1, #2 and #4 with my short term rental business. I would add borrowing at fixed rate in an inflating currency to finance this kind of cash flowing asset maybe ? Without going crazy though, debt is a double edged sword and you can always be wrong.

Working on #7 and #10 as well but I'm a little guy here, I haven't made my fortune yet :happy:
 

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Rental propertyRaising rents.
Raising rents might not be possible, there might even be governmental restrictions that prevents you from raising rates.

Or even worse, the green people come up with new regulations and do not allow you to rent your property out, because it does not meet the current energy saving guidelines.

Real estateNone, but creates a long-term preservation of buying power
I am still not sure if it has to be debt free or not.

Commodity investmentsBuy commodity assets on an exchange, like DBC, futures, etc.
Not all commodities are the same, as I've learned the hard way. Pick the right ones, and the right timing.

Stockpiling suppliesBuy life's necessities and store for later user
Only works in the short term. People from Argentine suggested to stockpile toilet rolls and canned food. As a means to trade ...

Gold won't work for trading. Store of value vs trading value ...
 

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Great list MJ. Having skills & providing value will always act as currency, regardless of inflation due to money printing, supply chain issues, etc.

For even better results, combine 2 or more of the items in the list to achieve synergy.

For example:
  1. First, learn a specialized skill and master it.
  2. Next, build up influence by creating content around that skill.
  3. Finally, provide a book, course, or training to teach the skill.
As inflation worsens, more people will look for a part-time job (or a better paying full-time job). They will gladly pay good money to learn your well-paid, specialized skill.

Later, create systems to automate operations & hire others to scale faster (and now it is a larger business).

With your free cash flow, diversify to real estate & other options.
 
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isaacdramera

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Here are my best defenses, and worse defenses for inflation, in order of strength.

This, of course, is purely my opinion based on 50+ years of experience on this planet Earth.

Feel free to comment, add your thoughts, or add your rankings.

And then, adjust your strategy now and in the future.

Notice how these strategies all fall-in line with a Fastlane strategy.

BEST DEFENSE (IN ORDER OF POWER)ACTIONABLE DEFENSE
A businessRaising prices.
Rental propertyRaising rents.
A specialized skillRaising your return on labor rental
Real estateNone, but creates a long-term preservation of buying power
Personal influenceIncrease that rates at which you exert influence (A YouTube channel with 1 million subscribers can help you beat inflation!)
A sales jobSell more at higher prices through indirect association of the patriarch business
Hard assets and commoditiesBuy gold, silver, gas, hard assets.
Commodity investmentsBuy commodity assets on an exchange, like DBC, futures, etc.
Stockpiling suppliesBuy life's necessities and store for later user
A money systemIncrease return on cash via raising interest rates.
A part time jobIncrease return on your time through higher labor costs
WORST DEFENSEACTIONABLE DEFENSE
A government paycheckNothing.
A pension, social securityNothing.
A salaried jobNothing.


Feel free to add in anything I might have forgotten!

Or add your thoughts or opinion.
Buying land can also be considered as hard asset and commodities right ?
because right now my business is mostly base on land … like agriculture and breeding ( farming ). Plus I have some opportunities to buy good land in space less developp by now
 

MJ DeMarco

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I am thinking how much percentage of should I invest into hard assets and commodity investments beside of money system investments like REITS.

I currently invested into physical silver bullion coins and DBC ETF for a small portion like 1%. I currently have some capital to deploy into. Any advice recommend?

The run on DBC is a bit late, I've been rolling out of my positions here, the only reason why I haven't liquidated all of them is because I'm waiting to hold for LT capital gains, versus short. In fact, I hold DBC long puts as I expect a recession to depress commodity prices.
 

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This is goofy af. But collectibles.
When covid initially hit, I unloaded my MTG collection for about 60k. Never thought I'd get back into it.
Now, here I am, with 7 figures in cardboard because I can't stop finding collections at rock bottom prices.
I get the vibe people are panic selling, but the prices are only going up, and people are picking up items at said prices. Shits wild.
If it keeps going at this rate, I'll be selling agency number 2, and hiring a few people to help me flip collectibles full time.
Cheers.
 

theag

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I remember that I was reasonably optimistic about life and my business at the beginning of 2020. But it seems like a few wrong decisions have left me completely in the dust with the absolutely crazy inflation since then.

Those mistakes were:
- Having a B2C business that sells to "normal" people
- Reinvesting profits into the business and thus:
- Not owning real estate
- Not owning much stocks, gold, etc

Not sure how to recover from that at my age (early 30s) in this new world to be honest.

I feel like I'm starting from zero again, or rather, never left the starting block, despite having a reasonably profitable ~1m€ rev business.

A few years ago that would have been considered a success, but now I feel like I'm living in a different reality when looking at RE prices etc. A million is nothing anymore.

Need an absolutely massive business success in a very short time frame just to catch up to the market.

I think my being based in Germany is what's contributing to this doom and gloom attitude, with the weak Euro and structural weaknesses here. So I'm working on a move to the U.S. to at least swim with the inflation current. Living in Europe feels not just like swimming against the current, but doing it in a different river that's slowly running dry.

A businessRaising prices.
Unfortunately there's a limit to that. Basically, if you have a B2C business you are more or less F*cked after some point, because wages are way behind inflation.

Much easier with B2B. Price increases just go down the supply chain until they hit some B2C sucker at the end of the line, who will then slowly go bankrupt.

Real estateNone, but creates a long-term preservation of buying power
Hard disagree with "none". The increases in RE prices have been absolutely crazy. I'd say the defense is built-in. I'm doubtful that there will ever be a housing market crash again. They will just keep it propped up.

If you don't own RE right now, you probably never will (exception: massively outsized business success).

On the other side, to people that own RE, everything in life just seems like a game / monopoly-money to them. I often can't believe how casually those huge numbers are thrown around here.

I've increased my carpet cleaning pricing by 50% over a span of 3 years. There was initially some resistance, but clients now seem to just accept that obscenely higher prices are the way of life. I don't know how the common paycheck to paycheck American is surviving in today's world.
I raised prices 100% over the last 3 years and saw the same resistance but there simply was no alternative. I think it has been too much and I need to lower them again, because sales volumes are starting to suffer. Actually feel bad charging so much.
 
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theag

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You're not starting from zero at all. You left the starting block and achieved a lot already.

What needs to happen for you to be happy with your direction?
My main problem is being way behind the market. My business isn't worthless, but it's currently simply not good enough for this new world with 10-20% yearly inflation. As long as that's the case I won't be able to afford even a simple middle class lifestyle. And middle class lifestyle isn't exactly the goal of the fastlane.

I'm working on improving the business (going international and focussing more on digital services vs physical products), which should help with general scale and margins. Next step will be rolling the profits from the current business into a new one with much higher potential, either by selling it or just using the cashflow to fund the new one.
 

theag

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Is the digital service a B2B service?
No, unfortunately it will still be B2C. Basically I'm trying to get the most out of this business before I either sell it or use it for more or less passive cashflow.
 

MTF

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No, unfortunately it will still be B2C. Basically I'm trying to get the most out of this business before I either sell it or use it for more or less passive cashflow.

So the next step is to escape B2C completely or get into B2C for rich people?

And why is your business not good enough? Product quality? Or the targeted audience who can't keep up with inflation?
 

Longshot

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Here are my best defenses, and worse defenses for inflation, in order of strength.

This, of course, is purely my opinion based on 50+ years of experience on this planet Earth.

Feel free to comment, add your thoughts, or add your rankings.

And then, adjust your strategy now and in the future.

Notice how these strategies all fall-in line with a Fastlane strategy.

BEST DEFENSE (IN ORDER OF POWER)ACTIONABLE DEFENSE
A businessRaising prices.
Rental propertyRaising rents.
A specialized skillRaising your return on labor rental
Real estateNone, but creates a long-term preservation of buying power
Personal influenceIncrease that rates at which you exert influence (A YouTube channel with 1 million subscribers can help you beat inflation!)
A sales jobSell more at higher prices through indirect association of the patriarch business
Hard assets and commoditiesBuy gold, silver, gas, hard assets.
Commodity investmentsBuy commodity assets on an exchange, like DBC, futures, etc.
Stockpiling suppliesBuy life's necessities and store for later user
A money systemIncrease return on cash via raising interest rates.
A part time jobIncrease return on your time through higher labor costs
WORST DEFENSEACTIONABLE DEFENSE
A government paycheckNothing.
A pension, social securityNothing.
A salaried jobNothing.


Feel free to add in anything I might have forgotten!

Or add your thoughts or opinion.
Nice. As for "stockpiling supplies," there was an interesting from the late 70s called "The Alpha Strategy" about that. They were also going through a time of stagflation. The author was very much a libertarian who thought the government and Fed messed everything up--but gave practical solutions and didn't just complain.
 

fastlane_dad

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Great list and framework of where your effort should be headed, whether in THIS inflation period or the next. The list also works well in non-inflationary times as well!

All boils down to control, some version of branding, and skills and knowledge to know how to promote, sell and market yourself and your products (business).

Great reminder to all once again - and I don't see this list CHANGING anytime soon into the future.
 

jdm667

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What's the difference between a Specialized Skill vs a Salaried Worker ? Both need a specialized skill. Is it like a contractor vs a salaried worker we are talking about?
To me, it comes down to levels of expertise and how common the skill is, which gives you more time and leverage:
  • Basic MS Excel skills (e.g. data entry - most salaried office workers need this and have it, so it is very common, and not really specialized)
  • Advanced MS Excel skills (e.g. vlookups, pivot tables, data analysis, forecasting - fewer salaried office workers have this, but it is still somewhat common, and somewhat specialized)
  • VBA Macros in MS Excel for process automation (few salaried office workers have this skill, so it is somewhat rare and very specialized)
If you went out on your own freelancing, you might not even be able to get $10 per hour for basic Excel skills (data entry, etc.), but you might be able to find clients who will pay $50 per hour for process automation.

It is the difference between working 40 hours per week doing basic Excel work and working 8 hours per week doing process automation - for exactly the same pay. Scenario 2 gives you more time to work on a Fastlane business (or you can work 40 hours to make 5x the money).

Also, if you freelance with your specialized skill, have 5 clients, and lose 1, you still have 80% of your pay. If you lose your 1 salaried job, your whole income is gone, along with any benefits.
 
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We only have records of crypto and inflation coexisting one time in history... NOW.

How has it done?

An asset class that is down 50-70% isn't a store of buying power.

That's why it's not on list.

However due to a limited history, that could change.
When people get scared, they sell their perceived high risk assets for cash, therefore those assets plummet in price.

Not necessarily the most rational behavior, since cash can be printed to infinity and beyond, unlike a physical item such as a bar of gold or some land.
 

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