WINTER IS COMING: European Winter of '22

[Fox]

It is looking like Europe is about to get wrecked on power prices...







If these are the new rates, then this is about to wipe small businesses hard.

I asked a friend who has been a risk manager and trader in power for years...



Looks like a perfect storm.

What are your guys takes - anyone on here with pro insight into what is likely to happen?

 

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[MJ DeMarco]

Some scary stuff in the pipeline...

And damn, that's a lot of coffee to sell to just pay that bill.

Hope things turn around fast, because it simply isn't sustainable.

 

[Fox]

Some scary stuff in the pipeline...

And damn, that's a lot of coffee to sell to just pay that bill.

Hope things turn around fast, because it simply isn't sustainable.

It is a decade-long slow car crash of terrible policies mixed in with the last two years.

Ireland, for example, has been shutting down lots of its power plants for years to "go green."

Everything with an [1] after its name gets shut down before the end of this year.



It is hard to believe a country would every purposely cripple itself with power but there you go.

 

[MattL]

I haven't followed events that closely but it's not looking great...

I wonder if there are any power producers that could come "to the rescue". Or if the events of this year have led to a power deficit or just a temporary imbalance because of sanctions and pipelines not being used...

 

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[eramart]

I know about an entrepreneur who grows sturgeons in Spain.

He began preparing for an energy crisis several years ago - got two used hydroelectric generators and refurbished them, covered a lot of flat surfaces with solar panels, built local sewage plant, got all the necessary paperwork.

Nowadays, he sells power to Spain, instead of buying it.

 

[GPM]

Don't worry, Canada said they will help out with windmills and green tech. Meanwhile we sit on more oil and gas than we possibly know what to do with....

I met a few German families who fled to mexico while I was down there. They were engineers and saw the writing on the wall and did not want their families to freeze to death once it all hit the fan. Looks like they were right, and they got out at a great time.

Yup, well off, educated Germans fleeing the homeland for Mexico. You can't make this stuff up.

"The West" is hell bent on Woking itself to death, quite literally.

 

[JordanK]

I was listening to the top economics/finance podcast in Ireland and they recommended this book. I'm about halfway through as I started reading it while on holidays. A crazy deep insightful view into how commodities really are traded and the people behind it all. It's one of Amazon's most popular books at the moment. Even the air hostess on my flight was telling me that she was reading it (lol). The book was released in March this year so it's mostly up to date on current events.

The World for Sale: Money, Power and the Traders Who Barter the Earth’s Resources: Amazon.co.uk: Blas, Javier, Farchy, Jack: 9781847942678: Books

 

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[Jerma]

"The West" is hell bent on Woking itself to death, quite literally.

Ah yes, the big woke agenda of running on gas, oil and coal. Smh.

 

[c4n]

@lludwig predicted price controls for 2022 back in December 2021.

His prediction was for the USA, but this is happening throughout Europe now; governments competing for which one will be able to stop inflation by limiting prices and, guess what, issuing more free money to those who can't afford these prices.

And it's only going to get worse.

 

[GPM]

Ah yes, the big woke agenda of running on gas, oil and coal. Smh.

Ummm, no, they are prematurely stopping using those resources and going after "green" tech. In reality "green" tech is inferior in every way, and barely even stands up using stolen tax dollars and forced mandate. Will it be better? Absolutely, there is no way it won't end up better in every way. But it is not even close to there yet.

Cutting the resource off that has literally given the planet the current standard of living and comfort that we all enjoy, and replacing it by force with something that is just as horrible environmentally, but just in a different way, that is nowhere even close to ready to replace the worlds power resources, is absolutely foolish.

I can guarantee you that not a single person pushing for 100% "green" is living what they are preaching. For goodness sake, the whole idea of a "carbon footprint" was invented by a freaking oil company!!!

 

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[jdm667]

It is looking like Europe is about to get wrecked on power prices...

View attachment 44938


View attachment 44939 View attachment 44940


If these are the new rates, then this is about to wipe small businesses hard.

I asked a friend who has been a risk manager and trader in power for years...

View attachment 44941

Looks like a perfect storm.

What are your guys takes - anyone on here with pro insight into what is likely to happen?

Yikes. I do not have pro insights, but at those energy rates, the cost to refrigerate/freeze food will go way up, so their prices will go way up.

Look for a consumer shift from milk, meat, and other perishables to water, dry goods (oats, beans, flour, etc.), and canned food.

 

[Mike Partee]

Hope things turn around fast, because it simply isn't sustainable.

I don't know how it could.

The last time we've seen a country cornered like this, Japan attacked the USA.

 

[Ing]

Just to say: Germany got his gas for heating through pipelines for example in Ukraine. These are controlled by foreign mights. Bad people say thats USA.
So now to reduce the dependency on these pipelines, we built 2 of our own, so that we(Germany) can negotiate the prize with Russia. Without a third party.
Well, imagine, who that doesn’t like. And here we are: our 100% dependency to western suppliers is back.
Now of course everyone takes his part ofthe cake and we pay the bill.

The bill of the op is nonsense, if the prize per kWh is not shown.

 

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[DavidePaco00]

It is looking like Europe is about to get wrecked on power prices...

View attachment 44938


View attachment 44939 View attachment 44940


If these are the new rates, then this is about to wipe small businesses hard.

I asked a friend who has been a risk manager and trader in power for years...

View attachment 44941

Looks like a perfect storm.

What are your guys takes - anyone on here with pro insight into what is likely to happen?

Try to make Your current business as scalable as possibe right NOW.

Covid taught us that our beloved state can close Your activity in any moment if it wants.

Even in a cafe there could be things that are more scalable, allowing You to reduce costs while increasing sales.

Build a newsletter with Your clients and / or allow them to text you on whatsapp what they want to eat for that day. Build trust with your list and launch special offers every now and then.

You can do a crowdfunding campaign to launch a new project , You can also make Your cafe a place where writers can make a presentation of their books , for example.

Look at the businesses in Your local area and try to see what's missing there. The idea should always be to produce on demand , just in time, while digitalizing Your business more and more, in this way You can cut the costs and earn profit differently.

Cheers

Davide

 

[Bekit]

It is looking like Europe is about to get wrecked on power prices...

View attachment 44938


View attachment 44939 View attachment 44940


If these are the new rates, then this is about to wipe small businesses hard.

I asked a friend who has been a risk manager and trader in power for years...

View attachment 44941

Looks like a perfect storm.

What are your guys takes - anyone on here with pro insight into what is likely to happen?

Just back-of-the-napkin math...

Let's say the it's a small coffee shop. Let's say they see an average of one customer every 5 minutes all day for 8 hours. I'm not sure if this is realistic or not - I've never run a coffee shop - but hypothetically, let's imagine these are the numbers for a coffee shop in a small community.

Let's say the average order is $5.

If their electric bill is $12,000 per year, that works out to about $0.35 of each order that goes to the power bill. Seems doable.

But if their electric bill jumps to $64,000 per year, that works out to about $1.90 of each order that goes to the power bill.

Therefore, to keep up, the coffee shop would have to raise the price of items by $1.55, so that $5 order jumps to $6.55.

But let's say they round that $1.55 up to $2 so that they can keep up with the overall increases in everything.

Suddenly, that regular coffee shop customer sees their normal order go from $5 to $7.

So they cut back on how frequently they stop.

It's easy to see how the coffee shop owner would feel like it's a game they can't win.

 

[RicardoGrande]

It is a decade-long slow car crash of terrible policies mixed in with the last two years.
...
It is hard to believe a country would every purposely cripple itself with power but there you go.

Didn't the World economic forum push this same ESG bs in sri lanka back in the 10s and now for the past year sri lanka has been starving and without fuel and in constant political turmoil and unrest?
The dutch government signed onto some similar guidelines, arbitrarily decided to reduce nitrogen by shutting down farms which ended up in those dutch farmer riots.

Crazy how a few lobbyists trying to make some extra $$$ can cause so much damage.

 

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[msufan]

Just back-of-the-napkin math...

Let's say the it's a small coffee shop. Let's say they see an average of one customer every 5 minutes all day for 8 hours. I'm not sure if this is realistic or not - I've never run a coffee shop - but hypothetically, let's imagine these are the numbers for a coffee shop in a small community.

Let's say the average order is $5.

If their electric bill is $12,000 per year, that works out to about $0.35 of each order that goes to the power bill. Seems doable.

But if their electric bill jumps to $64,000 per year, that works out to about $1.90 of each order that goes to the power bill.

Therefore, to keep up, the coffee shop would have to raise the price of items by $1.55, so that $5 order jumps to $6.55.

But let's say they round that $1.55 up to $2 so that they can keep up with the overall increases in everything.

Suddenly, that regular coffee shop customer sees their normal order go from $5 to $7.

So they cut back on how frequently they stop.

It's easy to see how the coffee shop owner would feel like it's a game they can't win.

And it compounds: your rent is going up or, if you had the misfortune of actually owning the cafe, who is going to buy the building from you under these conditions? Not good at all.

 

[John TenBrink]

My mom, who lives in southern Germany is bracing for disaster, as many Germans, who cannot afford (or can find) cut logs as a heat source, are now scouring nearby woods and cutting their own wood. Energy prices are rocking the European continent.

 

[MattL]

My mom, who lives in southern Germany is bracing for disaster, as many Germans, who cannot afford (or can find) cut logs as a heat source, are now scouring nearby woods and cutting their own wood. Energy prices are rocking the European continent.

For some reason this reminds me of the toilet paper panic 2 years ago..

 

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[georgetod79]

I was listening to the top economics/finance podcast in Ireland and they recommended this book. I'm about halfway through as I started reading it while on holidays. A crazy deep insightful view into how commodities really are traded and the people behind it all. It's one of Amazon's most popular books at the moment. Even the air hostess on my flight was telling me that she was reading it (lol). The book was released in March this year so it's mostly up to date on current events.

The World for Sale: Money, Power and the Traders Who Barter the Earth’s Resources: Amazon.co.uk: Blas, Javier, Farchy, Jack: 9781847942678: Books

Another good one on the energy topic is Alex Epstein's Fossil Future: Why Global Human Flourishing Requires More Oil, Coal, and Natural Gas--Not Less. Released in May 2022.
Lots of statistics but also looking at the philosophical side - why do they want to shut down not only fossil fuel plants, but also nuclear, hydro, etc? Hint - CO2 is not the reason.
Funny to see quotes from many doomsmen about the upcoming end of the world ... 10, 20, or 30 years ago LOL
His first book is The Moral Case for Fossil Fuels, a great one too.

 

[Ing]

Costs of energy explode. I ve seen that 10 years ago and insulated my house properly. Makes a huge difference.

 

[originalMJT]

Just to say: Germany got his gas for heating through pipelines for example in Ukraine. These are controlled by foreign mights. Bad people say thats USA.
So now to reduce the dependency on these pipelines, we built 2 of our own, so that we(Germany) can negotiate the prize with Russia. Without a third party.
Well, imagine, who that doesn’t like. And here we are: our 100% dependency to western suppliers is back.
Now of course everyone takes his part ofthe cake and we pay the bill.

The bill of the op is nonsense, if the prize per kWh is not shown.

The most stupid thing Germany has ever done (apart from staring two wars) is depending on Russia for its gas, now Germany is buying gas from everyone else, thats whats pushed the price up, thank you Germany !!

 

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[SamRussell]

It's crazy, but this what the environmentalists want - mankind back to living in caves.

With the power plants that have been shut down over the last few years, does anyone know how / if they can be turned back on? Are these plants being dismantled for scrap? Are they being maintained while they're dormant?

If they're maintained but dormant, at least they can be restarted in a few months. If they're being scrapped... well it takes a few years to build a powerplant...

Side note but I remember seeing portable nuclear power plants a while ago that could fit in a shipping container or two... they might suddenly become popular.

EDIT: Increasing worldwide power costs... how will this affect the crypto market?

Another good one on the energy topic is Alex Epstein's Fossil Future: Why Global Human Flourishing Requires More Oil, Coal, and Natural Gas--Not Less. Released in May 2022.
Lots of statistics but also looking at the philosophical side - why do they want to shut down not only fossil fuel plants, but also nuclear, hydro, etc? Hint - CO2 is not the reason.
Funny to see quotes from many doomsmen about the upcoming end of the world ... 10, 20, or 30 years ago LOL
His first book is The Moral Case for Fossil Fuels, a great one too.

I was just about to recommend those books lol.

 

[GPM]

The world does not have an energy problem. There is in fact more available energy for us to use than ever before thanks to technological advancements. What the world has is a government problem, and people putting up with what said government forces upon us.

Why do people still buy that the government is the moral authority and speaks as such? They have proven time and time again to not be the moral authority, and in fact are so corrupt it is frightening. And yet they say what they do is "right" and the idiot masses just lap it up.

 

[AceVentures]

Contrary to the dumb belief of opening and closing taps, the flow of energy is a lot harder to manipulate.

For example, just going from a discovery to first oil can take 7 years. Shutting wells in can cause Reservoir damage, and everything downstream of the well gets hit. Nobody wants to stop flowing oil. Nobody wants to stop selling it. From the first molecule of oil in a rock to its arrival in refined format at your stove requires tremendous coordination. Pipelines take forever to be built. Even if LNG can be supplied from tankers, you need regasification plants to adequately process the gas.

Europe is in a big mess and there ain't an easy solution for them. EU pushing Sanctions on RU as they're being fed from the hands of Putin is... something else. Convincing their own people to literally suffer to "support Ukraine"? Maybe they can stop playing tough and come together for peace talks.

There's a couple of big LNG projects in West Africa coming online in the next two years that could help Europe. If they can hang on that long...

 

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[RicardoGrande]

I'd love to say "Glad I don't have to be in Europe right now" but have the oddest feeling sh!t like this will be in the U.S. soon. (Didn't california just declare a grid emergency this week after shutting down a bunch of nuclear plants? Ditto for France)

 

[jdhauser1]

I can imagine this all getting much worse all around the world before things shift back around.

If we think about this as an opportunity I wonder what we'd come up with? Solar panels for some people would work, that's spreading around the US quickly now. What else could we invent, turn into a business to help these people out

 

[heavy_industry]

Lots of statistics but also looking at the philosophical side - why do they want to shut down not only fossil fuel plants, but also nuclear, hydro, etc? Hint - CO2 is not the reason.

I haven't read the book yet, but will do soon.

My guess is that they don't want to save "the planet" (whatever that means). They just want to destroy capitalism. The only way to save humanity is by using more energy, not less.

 

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[maximusharrison]

The situation in Europe is about to go from bad to worse this winter when it comes to electricity, I'm afraid.

 

[Ing]

I just got a notification : electricity will be 54 €cent per KWH in Oktober.
It was about 30 last summer.