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The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

Bekit

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The Cockroach Fable*

My mother in law mentioned casually the other day that she saw a cockroach run across her kitchen floor.

"I hate cockroaches. But it was just one."

Then I found out that she had called in an exterminator, not just to spray around the perimeter, but to tent her entire house.

I thought, "That's a little weird. Seems like an overreaction."

My mother-in-law justified it by saying that she had seen more cockroaches. She upped the cockroach count to 5.

Then I learned that a day or two later, all the other neighbors on her street also had to have an exterminator tent their houses.

But my mother-in-law insisted that no more than 10 cockroaches had been seen in the entire neighborhood.

By the next week, 7 city blocks of houses were all hiring exterminators and tenting their houses. Photos were being leaked on social media (and then quickly deleted) of swarms and swarms of an unknown, bedbug-like vermin, and lots of people itching a very nasty rash.

I thought, "That's kind of creepy. This is some kind of super insect that's spreading like crazy."

But my mother-in-law (and all the official channels) were all adamant that the fuss was over less than 100 cockroaches total. "Nothing to see here, folks! Move along!"

Moral of the story: Watch what China DOES, not what they SAY.

Right now, there's a massive mismatch. We don't do this for the flu:
(millions of people on lockdown, people literally getting dragged away screaming, people convulsing and dropping dead in the street, stores getting emptied out, the outbreak spreading to multiple countries...) this should be front page news everywhere. But it's not. Oh sure, you'll see articles here and there, but the coverage is nowhere near what the media generally does in these situations.

Why are so many people freaking out about corona? More people get murdered in the US in 2020 than people died worldwide from corona... If you compare it to the number of people that died in car accidents, alcohol or cigarettes are way higher...
Why? We're watching their actions, not their words.

Please, thinking that all medical stuff around the world is lying, that the "truth" is hidden and that only few elected know what is going on is not a rationale way of thinking.
The symptoms are like a normal flue and it will spread, no secret here.
Again, I don't understand why stocking ammo would be helpful for this emergency.
To me, it's a rational way of thinking. (A) The elected officials have an interest in keeping people from panicking. It seems obvious that they have strong economic motivation to keep the facts OUT of the public eye this time. This is the exact reverse of the way the media handles things most of the time. "The weather! We're all gonna die!" They usually inflate and distort the actual size of the problem. "Snow" becomes a "Bomb Cyclone." They cry wolf to distract attention.

(B) When we are seeing draconian measures employed to lock down 700+ million people, this is not the flu. It's not anything like the flu. This is even MORE prominent considering that China does not care if people die. If there were just 2,000+ victims, or even 10,000+ victims in Wuhan, China would just be like #shrug. If their officials are terrified, we should take this much more seriously than the media is leading us to think.

(C) Regarding ammo, if it gets to the point where people are starving, those without food will start raiding homes one by one to find the preppers and hoarders. Just like the hospitals get overloaded, the police forces will become overloaded. You will not be protected by calling 911.

Watch the situation with agriculture in a month or two. Planting season is coming right when this virus may be peaking. If fields don't get planted due to quarantine or shortage of workers, then there are going to be food shortages down the road. The world probably has food supply until this fall, when harvest would normally take place. If we don't have a normal sized harvest, then the food situation could get really dire in 2021.

Thoughts on masks...
I've also been told that masks are useless... like using a chain-link fence to filter a bb gun pellet. aThe virus is too small -- the only protection is full hazmat. (The ones that we've seen the Chinese using) This came from several MDs in my peer circle, not sure if that's true, or disinformation.
Haha so we'd all have to go full-on doomsday prepper with the hazmat?

I agree about the masks, unless you have N95 ones, which are still not 100% effective.

It's really sad to me to see all this footage of Chinese doctors and nurses in full Hazmat suits and then... surgical masks. It's like, guys, why bother with the whole get-up if you're going to ruin it with a useless mask over your most vulnerable location? Obviously they're short on supplies, but a lot of doctors and nurses are going to continue to get infected this way.

Trackers:
Anyone know what happened to the John Hopkins virus tracker? It no longer works for me.


Asks for login. As if the public can no longer have access to the data.

Here are some other good ones:


=============
*Regarding the fable: This is only a fable. There are no actual neighborhoods tenting houses. I do not even have a mother-in-law. This is only a creative story written to illustrate a point.
 
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biggeemac

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I'm not quite ready to go full "Book of Eli" yet. If the city of Wuhan and surrounding areas were removed from the equation, this would probably barely make the news. The people that were responsible for every aspect of disease management here have failed. I look at Wuhan as a prime example of what NOT to do when faced with a deadly disease.

I read this article on Techcrunch.....I found many points valid.
 

Xeon

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Why are so many people freaking out about corona?

Sensationalizing of the virus by almost all news media outlets of the world to increase their viewership. Crazy conspiracy theories that aim to outdo one another.
And too much Hollywood.
 
G

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Damn it, this will be the 2nd day in a row I've gone down this rabbithole of a thread.

As far as I'm concerned, yes. The virus will absolutely affect those who are Infantile, Elderly, and/or Comorbid. I don't fall into those categories, so I'm statistically at lower risk of dying from an infection.

What I'm more concerned about are the wider economic issues and pressure on governments due to extreme panic about the virus, but not the virus in and of itself.

Extreme Panic will lead to the masses running for the banks and grocery stores, without enough time for commodities production to provide for everyone.

Extreme Panic will lead to everyone staying home from work for extended periods of time, potentially halting the economy and production of vital commodities.

Do I believe a virus will make us go to those extremes? I don't believe so.

It's pretty clear that trade HAS to continue, otherwise nobody will get the necessary goods people need to live. This is why I believe governments, the CDC and WHO aren't being truthful about the gravity of the situation. They've come to realize that there's going to be significant loss of life as a result of this, but they're buying time through continued containment. The announcing of a global pandemic would cause mass hysteria before commodities or pharmaceutical companies will be able to support the surge of demand. If everyone in the world tried to get their hands on 6 months of supplies tomorrow, how catastrophic would that be? So, commerce everywhere except China moves on.

It's in light of this that I believe it's up to the individual to prepare for the worst and hope for the best -- Just like you would do in any other natural disaster. Floridians do it every year for hurricane season. The mentality that you should prepare if you had to survive without the aid of public institutions is normal and should be accepted.

Hell, I've been through a Cat 5 Hurricane almost 2 years ago.

Guess what. We lived.

It's because we had enough stuff to live off of until the community stabilized. We obviously never hope things to keel over, but if we see a storm coming, we stock up. 99 out of 100 times, we're fine. That 1 storm that causes so much destruction where you can't rely on public services to help us for a couple weeks makes the preparation worth it.

Fear only comes from being ill-prepared. So, get prepared.


As far as I can tell, that's what I see here. It's a metaphorical storm coming from a pretty significant distance. It could end up being a tropical storm that fizzles out before we know it. It could also be a Katrina before we know it, and it's those we prepare for. We never expect or hope it'll become that, but we stock up anyway.

That's my two cents on one end of the spectrum. On the other hand...

FEAR should never dictate your business decisions.
Will I prepare? Yes. If I see a storm coming, why wouldn't I?

But I'm not going to let FEAR get in the way of working my plan.
You could've said the same for 2008 or any number of external events...

"I'm not gonna go into business because the economy's bad."
So what?

"I'm not gonna go into business because X president is getting elected."
So what?

"I'm not gonna go into business because corona will end the world."
No it won't dummy. So what?

That's all I've gotta say about this. Getting supplies when I move at the end of this week. But for now I might just have to mute this thread. It's affecting my productivity :hilarious:
 

loop101

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Damn it, this will be the 2nd day in a row I've gone down this rabbithole of a thread.

As far as I'm concerned, yes. The virus will absolutely affect those who are Infantile, Elderly, and/or Comorbid. I don't fall into those categories, so I'm statistically at lower risk of dying from an infection.

What I'm more concerned about are the wider economic issues and pressure on governments due to extreme panic about the virus, but not the virus in and of itself.

Extreme Panic will lead to the masses running for the banks and grocery stores, without enough time for commodities production to provide for everyone.

Extreme Panic will lead to everyone staying home from work for extended periods of time, potentially halting the economy and production of vital commodities.

Do I believe a virus will make us go to those extremes? I don't believe so.

It's pretty clear that trade HAS to continue, otherwise nobody will get the necessary goods people need to live. This is why I believe governments, the CDC and WHO aren't being truthful about the gravity of the situation. They've come to realize that there's going to be significant loss of life as a result of this, but they're buying time through continued containment. The announcing of a global pandemic would cause mass hysteria before commodities or pharmaceutical companies will be able to support the surge of demand. If everyone in the world tried to get their hands on 6 months of supplies tomorrow, how catastrophic would that be? So, commerce everywhere except China moves on.

It's in light of this that I believe it's up to the individual to prepare for the worst and hope for the best -- Just like you would do in any other natural disaster. Floridians do it every year for hurricane season. The mentality that you should prepare if you had to survive without the aid of public institutions is normal and should be accepted.

Hell, I've been through a Cat 5 Hurricane almost 2 years ago.

Guess what. We lived.

It's because we had enough stuff to live off of until the community stabilized. We obviously never hope things to keel over, but if we see a storm coming, we stock up. 99 out of 100 times, we're fine. That 1 storm that causes so much destruction where you can't rely on public services to help us for a couple weeks makes the preparation worth it.

Fear only comes from being ill-prepared. So, get prepared.


As far as I can tell, that's what I see here. It's a metaphorical storm coming from a pretty significant distance. It could end up being a tropical storm that fizzles out before we know it. It could also be a Katrina before we know it, and it's those we prepare for. We never expect or hope it'll become that, but we stock up anyway.

That's my two cents on one end of the spectrum. On the other hand...

FEAR should never dictate your business decisions.
Will I prepare? Yes. If I see a storm coming, why wouldn't I?

But I'm not going to let FEAR get in the way of working my plan.
You could've said the same for 2008 or any number of external events...

"I'm not gonna go into business because the economy's bad."
So what?

"I'm not gonna go into business because X president is getting elected."
So what?

"I'm not gonna go into business because corona will end the world."
No it won't dummy. So what?

That's all I've gotta say about this. Getting supplies when I move at the end of this week. But for now I might just have to mute this thread. It's affecting my productivity :hilarious:

I hope you are right and there is "No Occasion For Panic", just need to get some VaporRub.

-jMNzWAB4mfJ4wCz7qk0akyv_wX3wokpuDW16oYkHF0.png
 

Sander

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I can see the purpose of prepping with food, medicine and other necessities, if you can't leave your city.. The reality of this gets closer and closer.

Image from Google Maps, Italy.

30708
(picture seen on /r/europe)
 
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MattR82

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I bought rice, canned goods like meat vegetable soups and tuna, paracetamol, 1 litre hand disinfectant, toilet paper. I'm really not worried about being sick but the panic will be a pain in the butt.

I feel like I'm lucky being in Brisbane, Australia for this, but def a good idea to have 2 weeks supplies at least especially if you would use it anyway.
 

Timmy C

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I bought rice, canned goods like meat vegetable soups and tuna, paracetamol, 1 litre hand disinfectant, toilet paper. I'm really not worried about being sick but the panic will be a pain in the butt.

I feel like I'm lucky being in Brisbane, Australia for this, but def a good idea to have 2 weeks supplies at least especially if you would use it anyway.

I bought a bunch of brown rice, long lasting milk, tooth brushes, canned food, frozen vegetables.

Don't think this will get crazy in australia, but i will feel like an idiot if i didnt prepare somewhat and something happened.
 

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My understanding of this topic is limited and everything I say should be taken with a grain of salt.

From what I know the problem with this virus is that it is not alive nor dead, but if it gets in your system it turns your body and healty cells against you. It's genuenly hard to target and a single cell that's infected produces more and more bad cells.

Take care of your health the best you can Corona or not, I don't think there's much else we can do as individuals that are not in healthcare. I assume there are some CS guys here and if you are good with DataMining (ML, AI) you can also help with the research of the genome.
 
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MattR82

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I bought a bunch of brown rice, long lasting milk, tooth brushes, canned food, frozen vegetables.

Don't think this will get crazy in australia, but i will feel like an idiot if i didnt prepare somewhat and something happened.
Exactly man. It's stuff I'm going to use anyway so no loss. On the plus side, if it does hit the fan, I get to give my mate that's a doctor some shit lol.

It's literally a hundred bucks or so, who cares.
 

Madame Peccato

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I live in Italy, and there is an infected person relatively close to where I live.

In my region (Lombardy, which is where most of the cases are, around 220 out of the 270 or so), the following are in effect:

- manifestations are canceled
- schools are closed
- banks are only open for 3-4 hours a day

Plus, I've read that in the Milan area, everything closes down between 6 PM and 6 AM. Nothing is open, no cinemas, no bars, no stores.

Some shelves were empty at one of the local supermarkets yesterday, but this morning they were back to full, so I bought a lot of pasta and rice, and some oil. Yesterday I got some canned food which seems to have been ignored by the masses.

As for the general climate, most people seem not to be scared at all, and most of them restocked with long-lasting food "just in case".

In fact, most of them are annoyed by the cancellation of local events (especially sport-related ones) more than anything, and they feel like this is a huge overreaction.
 
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Jake

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Why are so many people freaking out about corona? More people get murdered in the US in 2020 than people died worldwide from corona... If you compare it to the number of people that died in car accidents, alcohol or cigarettes are way higher...
The average person that gets murdered doesn't murder 2.5 more people. A person getting murdered doesn't increase the capabilities of said person to spread more murders.
 
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biophase

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LOL, to all the people that are saying, XXX kills XXXX more people each year, or that the media is overblowing this... Those aren't actually the reasons to worry.

Has your factory in China ever been shut down over the flu? Do people empty out grocery stores because some people in their town catch a cold?

It doesn't matter what YOU actually think of the virus or even if you think it is real. What matters is what 10,000 people in your town do. If your streets are empty and your fridge is bare, you can certainly stay home and play videos games all day. But what happens when you are hungry and there is no food. Then does it really matter what YOU think?

Nobody here is doing anything crazy. Is buying extra food and water really insane? Sure you can laugh at people that are doing it. This is a total mindset thing. There are people that prepare and people that just go through life without planning.

On the business side, it's the same mindset. Where does your supplement company get all those plastic/glass bottles that they put all the private label stuff into? China, of course. The supplement powders might be made here, but the jars and caps come from China. I order my jars/bottles from a USA container company, so you might think, US company, no need to panic. But guess what? They come from China too and they are out of stock now. No ETA for their next shipment to arrive.

But guess what I did? I ordered a years worth of stuff a month ago. I have enough inventory to last until 2021 right now. I might be crazy, or I might be the only one in stock in September. Who knows. But am I going to risk my business on what I THINK about the virus, or am I going to go by what is actually going on.
 

GIlman

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That’s exactly right. The virus itself is scary, I’ve seen the CT scans from China, the respiratory disease it can cause is bad. The other thing, hospitals have a very limited number of hospital beds, and even fewer icu beds. It would not take much to literally have no beds for sick and dying people. This could get very bad very fast.

but...the thing I fear just as much is the people in the community that will lose their shit when resources evaporate over night. Prepare now, even if it’s only a month or 2 worth. It is VERY real possibility that food and fuel will be scarce, if for no other reason that when people panic they will horde whatever is available to them.

You can find very economical stuff from Mormon sources.

 

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Madame Peccato

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Tonight's news in Italy report that:

320 people are currently infected by the coronavirus
Eleven people died because of it.

More data on how people react to it:

80% of the people recover by themselves.
15% need some medication, but nothing major.
5% need serious medical intervention.

Also, it seems like some people have been infected but show no symptoms at all. Tampon tests give a positive result, but the subjects have no sickness of the sort (no fever, no cold, no coughing, nothing).
 

biggeemac

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Tonight's news in Italy report that:

320 people are currently infected by the coronavirus
Eleven people died because of it.

More data on how people react to it:

80% of the people recover by themselves.
15% need some medication, but nothing major.
5% need serious medical intervention.

Also, it seems like some people have been infected but show no symptoms at all. Tampon tests give a positive result, but the subjects have no sickness of the sort (no fever, no cold, no coughing, nothing).
I'm sure its terrible being in a country affected by this, but it is very helpful that now, we can get some feedback from a country that doesn't have a history of silencing its citizens. Good luck to you !!
 

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In Italy we completely lost control because everyone keeps saying the same thing, over and over, even politicians: "It's just a random flu"

But if it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, looks like a duck, it must be a duck.

This is the early stage of a pandemic.

Better to prepare for the worst, buddies.

Who wants to anticipate, will make a stock and be sure to lockdown on his house with ammunitions.

I personally already anticipated the mass and did a 3 months stock so from yesterday I'm safe in my home and will not exit.

I could be either a panicking fool or a visionaire but I'm already trying to be prepared for the next move: Buy a sailboat and skill myself for survival techniques.
 
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FreshNash

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Normalcy Bias. The normalcy bias, or normality bias, is a belief people hold when there is a possibility of a disaster. It causes people to underestimate both the likelihood of a disaster and its possible effects, because people believe that things will always function the way things normally have functioned. This may result in situations where people fail to adequately prepare themselves for disasters, and on a larger scale, the failure of governments to include the populace in its disaster preparations. About 70% of people reportedly display normalcy bias in disasters.
This.
 

biophase

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Are there any statistics on fatality rates by age?
 

RealDreams

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Normalcy Bias. The normalcy bias, or normality bias, is a belief people hold when there is a possibility of a disaster. It causes people to underestimate both the likelihood of a disaster and its possible effects, because people believe that things will always function the way things normally have functioned. This may result in situations where people fail to adequately prepare themselves for disasters, and on a larger scale, the failure of governments to include the populace in its disaster preparations. About 70% of people reportedly display normalcy bias in disasters.
How would you act if your parents have a normalcy bias and keep saying "Stop being so dramatic!" while your dad seems to care more about soccer on TV than the coronavirus?

I just moved back to my parents' home as I was living in a shared flat with 2 other people in North Italy before that (University). But I'm not sure how more "protected" I am here with my parents. I feel like bad shit will happen if I stay with them.
 
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biggeemac

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How would you act if your parents have a normalcy bias and keep saying "Stop being so dramatic!" while your dad seems to care more about soccer on TV than the coronavirus?

I just moved back to my parents' home as I was living in a shared flat with 2 other people in North Italy before that (University). But I'm not sure how more "protected" I am here with my parents. I feel like bad shit will happen if I stay with them.

Boy, that's rough. For what it's worth, I think a lot of people are in your shoes. At the very least, you might want to consider stocking up on some inexpensive supplies on your own. You don't even have to tell your parents. Rather, it could be a nice surprise for all of you if things take a turn for the worse. For starters, beans and rice are very cheap. But the thing that makes your situation a little stickier is that your country is already impacted, which means that going out poses its own risk, especially if people in your area are infected, or if panic buying is already happening. Do you have hand sanitizer? Make sure bring some with you when you go and use it. A lot. And avoid crowds. Easier said than done, I know. Please keep us posted, and good luck!

(Edit to add that other stock-worthy items include: toilet paper, paper towels, hand sanitizer, bleach, rubbing alcohol. Right now, these things are still cheap. But just like N95 masks, the prices will skyrocket if we run into extreme shortages.)
 

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Boy, that's rough. For what it's worth, I think a lot of people are in your shoes. At the very least, you might want to consider stocking up on some inexpensive supplies on your own. You don't even have to tell your parents. Rather, it could be a nice surprise for all of you if things take a turn for the worse. For starters, beans and rice are very cheap. But the thing that makes your situation a little stickier is that your country is already impacted, which means that going out poses its own risk, especially if people in your area are infected, or if panic buying is already happening. Do you have hand sanitizer? Make sure bring some with you when you go and use it. A lot. And avoid crowds. Easier said than done, I know. Please keep us posted, and good luck!

(Edit to add that other stock-worthy items include: toilet paper, paper towels, hand sanitizer, bleach, rubbing alcohol. Right now, these things are still cheap. But just like N95 masks, the prices will skyrocket if we run into extreme shortages.)
Thanks a lot!
Yeah unfortunately I only managed to get 200 pairs of nitrile gloves. That's it, really.
Everything else is sold out, or has 10X the real price.
Guess I'm too late...

Edit: Actually, there seem to be some less mainstream sites which sell sanitizers. But for the masks, it's all gone.
 
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tuesday2000

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The only cure for coronavirus is some limes.

I prefer modelovirus though, if im honest.

But in all seriousness, the media is sensationalizing things like usual. 2 Weeks ago we were on the brink of world war 3, now the next plague is upon us.

Also, compared to 100 years ago, we've come a long way with our understanding of viruses and treatment. In people with healthy immune systems, it is rarely fatal. The people who have died were already in poor health.


The jokes and memes I've seen going around show how "concerned" people actually are about this.

Ironically I have a bit of a stuffy nose and sore throat as I type this, so it was nice knowing you guys.

Doctors in their 30's have died. Those are the types of things that concern me. Also, you say "we" - that's industrialized nations. This will be/is spreading on to areas with pretty horrible hygiene issues and nearly no medical care. India is notoriously dirty. And the Middle East? Does that mean their immune systems are stronger? I guess we will see. Seems like North Korea and truly sequestered indigenous groups will be inheriting the earth.

I personally believe in the healing powers of alcohol :) (and cranberry juice) whenever I travel internationally I make sure to have 2-3 drinks/day. I've never gotten sick. Guess I need to start watching Moonshiners to get some good tips.
 

lowtek

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Thanks a lot!
Yeah unfortunately I only managed to get 200 pairs of nitrile gloves. That's it, really.
Everything else is sold out, or has 10X the real price.
Guess I'm too late...

Edit: Actually, there seem to be some less mainstream sites which sell sanitizers. But for the masks, it's all gone.

Get food. Lots of it.
20 pounds of rice has ~31,000 calories
20 pounds of peanut butter has ~53,000 calories
20 pounds of pinto beans has ~22,000 calories
1.5 liters of olive oil has ~10,000 calories.
20 pounds of flour has ~33,000 calories.

Figure out what people are going to need (calorie wise) and get to work. 14 - 30 days is a good start. Something like 60,000 calories per person per month is a good ballpark number. If they are large people then adjust upwards, if they are small people adjust downwards.
 

MJ DeMarco

I followed the science; all I found was money.
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The average person that gets murdered doesn't murder 2.5 more people. A person getting murdered doesn't increase the capabilities of said person to spread more murders.

A lot of folks don't understand mathematics. Exponential, linear, or geometric. That's where most people lose perspective.

Figure out what people are going to need (calorie wise) and get to work. 14 - 30 days is a good start. Something like 60,000 calories per person per month is a good ballpark number. If they are large people then adjust upwards, if they are small people adjust downwards.

Be a great time to intermittent fast!
 
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GIlman

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Even though some people have died in their thirties, preliminary data shows this to largely be an issue for older and sick. But still some young people have and will die.

I am still very concerned about this and am taking steps to protect myself and family.

 

loop101

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SF declares emergency:

San Francisco Mayor London Breed has declared a local emergency amid coronavirus fears.

“Although there are still zero confirmed cases in San Francisco residents, the global picture is changing rapidly, and we need to step up preparedness,” Breed said in a statement Tuesday. “We see the virus spreading in new parts of the world every day, and we are taking the necessary steps to protect San Franciscans from harm.”

While three people have been treated for C0VlD-19 at San Francisco hospitals, there have been no confirmed cases of the illness in the city.



View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obUoLNpPqB8
 
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