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The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

Xeon

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Currently, most of the factories are closed and many companies are having issues with their product supply.....I really hope the situation gets better in March, else we're all F*cked.
 
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ZF Lee

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Currently, most of the factories are closed and many companies are having issues with their product supply.....I really hope the situation gets better in March, else we're all F*cked.
Heard that Singapore raised the danger level to ‘yellow’.

And the food-buying panic went on lol.

I don’t think food will go into as bad of a shortage as masks, but current food sellers (at least for dried foods) might have its day.

I’m gradually working on stocking stuff up myself in case SHTF. I am shocked how lax Malaysia is...I know we shouldn’t let fear overtake us, but denial shouldn’t as well.
 
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Xeon

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Heard that Singapore raised the danger level to ‘yellow’.

And the food-buying panic went on lol.

I don’t think food will go into as bad of a shortage as masks, but current food sellers (at least for dried foods) might have its day.

I’m gradually working on stocking stuff up myself in case SHTF. I am shocked how lax Malaysia is...I know we shouldn’t let fear overtake us, but denial shouldn’t as well.

Nah, we raised it from Yellow to Orange level a few days ago, and the food panic started. It's a lot better now, not as crazy as last Fri - Sat. Then, from Sat - Sun, some went over to Malaysia JB to continue buying more lol. You should stock up on face masks if you haven't already. Not sure how's the mask situation there.
 

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James Altucher just made a podcast episode about the virus
 

RyanLPainter

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I read that it has now killed more people than SARS globally, but I'm confident that the glibal responsenis more informed and ready then when SARS hit.
 
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ZF Lee

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Not sure how's the mask situation there.
Haha still bad as crap. Even pharmacies have to put 'out of masks and sanitisers' signs for days.

Managed to get some that should last for a few weeks at least.
Got it from a mixture of Shopee and relative connections (somehow if you know the right people in pharma, you get early pickings although you may still need to pay full price).

Hand sanitizers are sold out in many places, but apparently, word is out that regular hand washing is much more effectively.

The virus seems to be able to last quite a long time on surfaces...so anti-bacterial/virus sprays have popped up in the pharma next to me, selling for as high as RM120 for a 100ml canister. Pretty costly, but you get what you pay for, I guess.

However, I don't know whether sprays are truly effective for surfaces.
I haven't found a study that proved it.

James Altucher just made a podcast episode about the virus
I've listened to it halfway.
Nothing very new so far...mostly that it has a long incubation period, better reasons than China conspiracy theories (e.g. the virus' design does not show signs that it was carefully structured as a scientific bioweapon would be)....and that case numbers (outside China, at least) are pretty low mostly because victims don't exhibit clear symptoms immediately, and don't go to the hospital.

Me thinks that most of the folks would have recovered on their own in due time, credits to their immune system.

It's the spreading that is the problem...your body can work perfectly fine, but you can spread it very easily.

I don't think we would have a problem with this, as long as most of us have good hygiene and good diets/lifestyles that boost our immune system. But seeing the quack cures going around on WhatsApp, the general refusal of friends and relatives alike to wear masks and sanitise, I've got little hope...
 

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This randomly popped up in my YouTube recommendations. It's a data visualization of the coronavirus compared to SARS, MERS, Ebola, and H1N1. And then they add in the Spanish Flu. And then they compare it to other causes of death. And then they play it as an avoider game. Super creative way to visualize the data.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6dDD2tHWWnU
 

.B.

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I posted this today, but in the wrong thread ( How is Coronavirus affecting your business?)

So I repost it where it belongs, sorry for those who read it already:

Disclaimer, I stopped watching the news years ago, but since 25/01 a Chinese friend kept me updated regularly with the "deaths count" from her QQ or WeChat app (Chinese Whatsapp).

So here were my thoughts:

I trust observed behaviour/actions rather than what people or governments say...
and I think the actual situation is way worse than what is communicated by the Chinese government.

Here are the observed facts and what we can deduce from them:

1) On 24/01 the Chinese government cancelled all New Year festivities and prohibited any public event.
Official number of deaths at that time: less than 30.

2) A couple of days later they decide to "build in 6 days a new hospital with 1.000 beds "
They already have many hospitals in Wuhan, but the purpose was that people infected with Coronavirus would go straight to the new hospital (a clever tactic to avoid spreading the virus to other patients in the existing hospitals)

More or less at that moment, Wuhan (a city of 10 million people) is put on lockdown.
Nobody could go in or out.

Official number of deaths at that time: less than 30.

3) A couple of days after the first decision to build a new hospital, they decide to build a second hospital with 1.500 beds!

=> Now we all know that Chinese people are very good at calculation, they worked hard at it.
So it is unlikely that they miscalculated the number of beds needed based on the initial data they had on the virus.
It is more likely that between those 2 decision dates, that is, in less than 3 days, their input data had changed a lot (e.g. the number of infected people, the speed with which the virus spreads, rate of death,...)

(Just by looking at the official numbers of deaths between 25/01 and 30/01 you could see that the number of deaths followed an exponential function, and you could already do a quick mental calculation and assume that if it continued with the same trend, they would go from 90 deaths to 1.000 deaths in the following 7 to 10 days, i.e. by 09/02, ...and they could reach several thousand deaths, maybe more than 10.000 before the end of February if no cure is found...)

4) 10 days after the beginning of the construction, the first hospital was finished! Pretty impressive.

Now what I find really scary:

When the 1st hospital was finished, the number of deaths had continued to follow its exponential trend (500 deaths on the 4th of February)
So they could have decided to build a 3rd hospital with the available workforce that had just finished the first hospital....
They could even have decided to build another 2 or 3 hospitals (come on it's China, they do have the resources and capacity to coordinate mass of workers and engineers...fast)

But instead, they decided to limit themselves to those 2 new hospitals.
And now they send people suspected to have coronavirus to the other existing hospitals in Wuhan (in contradiction to their first tactical decision...)
Although they know that it will accelerate the spread of the virus to other patients in those hospitals.

It seems they decided, that the contamination is so large and it spreads so fast that building thousands of beds won't change much...

So instead they decide to make the lockdown in Wuhan in tighter cells:
They went from a city-wide lockdown
To forbidding movement between neighbourhoods
And a few days later, people were asked to not leave their apartment buildings except to go buy food...

We can assume that the idea of having lockdowns on smaller cells is: if one cell is contaminated, we may lose a certain portion of its inhabitants, but the virus spread should be limited to that cell.

So the official communication may have been: "companies will not re-open before 17/02"...

But if we analyse the actions of their government:
Only 10 days after that they had reached 25 deaths, they calculated that it made more sense to focus on preventing the further spread of the disease than to build a few more hospitals that would only provide a few thousand beds more...
Even though they have the resources to build 2 hospitals with a total of 2.500 beds in less than 2 weeks!

They downplay the severity of the illness, saying there are good chances of survival. Yet they let their economy take a blow by keeping companies closed for a long period...

Additionally, I can guess that the Chinese government has many incentives to have reassuring communication with their citizen and with the rest of the world. (commercial reasons for one, maybe also for political reasons)

And so yes, the situation is really sad for the people who have to live through that crisis and who are losing close relatives in dramatic circumstances...

And now it seems that they bleach the streets in Wuhan...:

When is the last time you heard a normal virus require such drastic measures?
If that virus is not an engineered bioweapon that went lose, it is a f... super bug for sure.

Now regarding the expected time before it all goes away in China:
In this cartoon for children (in Chinese and French), they seem to want to prepare kids to stay home or at least use masks for several months:
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30414
 
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.B.

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And here is the repost of the second part (How is Coronavirus affecting your business?)

I thought the same thing, another Swine Flu blowout.

That said, a relative forwarded me this article, the implications that the virus mortality may be far higher than the Chinese are letting on.

I had skipped your article @Roger FS

Right now I just took the time to read the first paragraphs and the summary at the end of the article.
And it is already very interesting, scary and it is confirming my assumptions.

So comes the question:
Are the countries outside of China doing all they can to track down and monitor the health of all the people who came back from Wuhan in the last 2 months and who could carry the virus.
And ideally starting to track and monitor the people they came in contact with.

This is the only effective approach facing such a killer virus.
Especially when it seems that people that don't show symptoms can already contaminate others.

Think about it, once many citizens are infected, it will take another 3 to 4 weeks before those citizens reach the critical stage that requires them to go to a hospital. (2 weeks to show the symptoms, 1 to 2 weeks for the symptoms to become serious)

Which means that infected people spend another 3-4 weeks transmitting the disease around them, unaware, before they are diagnosed with that coronavirus...And the others will do the same, and the contamination will continue its exponential spread.

I know that in my country (Belgium) they don't take the appropriate proactive measures:

They only monitor the tip of the iceberg, and actually, the tip of the wrong Iceberg (they monitor the one infected person from the 15 Belgian citizens they brought back from Wuhan).
and they say in the news:
"IF you came back from China this month AND have flu symptoms, go straight to hospital St Pierre don't go to your general doctor"

And so all people that got contaminated by strangers that were close to them in the train, they will still go see their general doctor when they show the flu symptoms...And the doctor will not test them for Coronavirus based on the current procedure.

And so they overlook the monstrously bigger potential iceberg for Belgium and France: i.e.
France has historical and business ties with Wuhan:
french students go to study in Wuhan,
Businessmen go weekly to Wuhan then fly back to Paris.

Then those businessmen take the Thalys (the high-speed train) between Paris and Brussels and maybe they continue their high-speed train trip to London or Amsterdam...All business centers

Each of those hundreds or thousands of travellers that went to China risks to contaminate more travellers in Europe during that month before we start seeing the top of that huge iceberg surfacing, when too many of them end up at the hospital and die from pneumonia to be a coincidence...and during that time, the other unaware travellers will continue to spread the disease to exponentially more people...

I really hope I'm wrong.
We will see by mid-march, begin of April what the situation is like in Europe.
By then we should have a better idea of the situation.

And I really hope that I am wrong because I know that the Belgian government doesn't have the capacity nor the competence to coordinate lockdowns. Maybe the army does...
 

.B.

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... a data visualization of the coronavirus compared to SARS, MERS, Ebola, and H1N1. And then they add in the Spanish Flu. And then they compare it to other causes of death. And then they play it as an avoider game. Super creative way to visualize the data.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6dDD2tHWWnU

30416

The exponential trend of contamination is super scary

And the situation is worse than it seems:
the 2,5% deaths rate is way undervalued:

Because it seems to take at least 2 weeks for someone who was infected and diagnosed before that person dies.

So in that video: 43.000 are the people infected on day 43, but still fighting the disease, not cured yet.

And some of those 43.000 infected just caught the disease and just started to show symptoms so they still have to wait a couple of weeks to know if they will make it.

Instead of 2,5% death rate, the 1.000 deaths on day 43 in the video should be compared to the number of people infected 2 weeks before (at least), so:
1.000 deaths on day 43, out of the ... 10.000 people infected and diagnosed on day 30.
That would be a 10% death rate!
1 chance out of 10 to die from it (more than that if you are older than 40 y.o.)

And if they fought more than 2 weeks after diagnostic before dying, then we have to compare the 1.000 deaths to the 3.0000 people infected and diagnosed on day 25. And then we are closer to a 30% death rate... (again, higher rate if you are older than 40 and have some health condition already)


30416
 
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.B.

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@Roger FS mentioned this article: DO THE MATH: China holds "good news" press conference, accidentally admits the coronavirus mortality rate is closer to 17 per cent

In that article, they have a link to the article of the Lancet where in January, they had 15% deaths on their first small batch of 40 patients in Wuhan...

30418
 
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.B.

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This randomly popped up in my YouTube recommendations. It's a data visualization of the coronavirus compared to SARS, MERS, Ebola, and H1N1. And then they add in the Spanish Flu. And then they compare it to other causes of death. And then they play it as an avoider game. Super creative way to visualize the data.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6dDD2tHWWnU
And again, at minute 4, they play it down by comparing the impact of coronavirus after only 40 days, to the 10 million deaths from the Spanish flu in 1918 after 600 days (that virus had an effective death rate of 10%)

Sure the hygene in 1918 cannot be compared to hygene today.
But if people can transmit coronavirus before they show any symptoms, they will not take the necessary hygene precautions.
And the modern transport systems we use daily (planes, train, buses) will let coronavirus spread further and faster than in 1918

30420
 

.B.

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At minute 5, they compare the 108 death of 10/02 to the number of daily deaths from other sources.
It is interesting to have a comparison.

30421

But it is taking a snapshot of the 108 coronavirus deaths on 10/02 of an illness that spreads exponentially each day (45 deaths on 03/02), . While the other daily numbers (cancer, car crashes...) are stable numbers.

So they still fail to compare those numbers to what the daily death rate of coronavirus will be in 30 days if it continues at the same exponential rate.

Ok, I don't often use my calculator, but the following should give roughly the right order of magnitude:
if the current increase in daily deaths remains as it was communicated between 25/01 and 04/02 (x1,15 each day), it could be :
2.000 deaths per day in a month;
30.000 deaths a day in 2 months. Still "not too bad" then,
but it will just keep going up if nothing stops the virus before. (I let you do your own calculation)

And that is on the premise that the number of daily deaths provided the last weeks by the Chinese government can be trusted...if not, the numbers could go higher faster.

Of course, the other parameter to take into account is how well countries outside of China will be able to deal with the virus compared to China...

At least at the end of the video he admits :
30422

ok, time to go to bed now :D
 
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MJ DeMarco

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Holy crap the number just spiked in the last hour to over 60K? Did China release new numbers that they originally tried to hide?

30423
 
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reedracer

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Holy crap the number just spiked in the last hour to over 60K? Did China release new numbers that they originally tried to hide?

View attachment 30423
That they built a mega-hospital so early on tells me they know the exact potential fallout of this virus. Bat soup my hienie!
 

MJ DeMarco

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Holy crap the number just spiked in the last hour to over 60K? Did China release new numbers that they originally tried to hide?

View attachment 30423

Yup, as I expected...


30424
 

TheCj

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When originally heard the numbers could tell was definitely fudged. The population density in China is so high. Someone just walking down the street is probably passing thousands of people. Let alone going on public transit etc.. Also the amount of measures that they have put in so fast, definitely doesn't match with what they are saying.

The numbers that have been released have never made any sense. If one person get's off a plane and is in quarantine. Then there should be another 200+ easily that should be watched just from that plane. Not to mention that flights always funnel all passengers through the same doors and gates from all the flights. So it wouldn't be just from that flight, it would be anyone that could of come in contact with the 200 people and anyone they came in contact with etc.. That's just from one flight of people. So then the numbers just get out of hand. Add in all the people that they pass in the airport etc.. etc.. etc..

Seeing the numbers from the first week to the second week and can do some basic extrapolating and then can see the numbers they report after don't make sense. The whole population of earth should be exposed by now to it.
That's just going off the first day that they reported. With the control on media there in China who knows when the real beginning was.

Came across this interesting piece in some articles reading up on pandemics.

"What diseases are most likely to cause a Pandemic?
Back in 2017, a team of researchers at Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security in Baltimore looked at that question. In the past, pathogens like Ebola and Zika virus were the most likely to alarm the public, but according to the research those pathogens are unlikely to cause a global pandemic disaster.

Instead, the report said that viruses that are spread through the air — including those like the common cold virus — pose the largest threat of becoming a pandemic.

The report suggests that in addition to the pathogen having to be airborne, it would need the following traits to truly be able to be a global pandemic/killer:

  • The pathogen would have to be contagious during the “incubation period,” or when people have only mild symptoms.
  • It would be a microbe that most people are not immune to, giving it a large population of susceptible hosts.
  • It wouldn’t have an existing treatment, vaccine or prevention method.
  • It would have a “low but significant” fatality rate — A pathogen with a high fatality rate could kill too many hosts too quickly, and therefore run out of people to spread it further.
The study claimed that a group of viruses known as RNA viruses have the highest likelihood of causing a global pandemic crisis. This includes viruses like the flu (influenza) and SARS, but also things like the common cold."

Seeing what we are seeing now, looks like an iteration of this recipe has been created.

The most suspect thing for me is how something like this is originating from such a developed city. Definitely has some conspiracy theory thoughts going.
 
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Katherine

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Nah, we raised it from Yellow to Orange level a few days ago, and the food panic started. It's a lot better now, not as crazy as last Fri - Sat. Then, from Sat - Sun, some went over to Malaysia JB to continue buying more lol. You should stock up on face masks if you haven't already. Not sure how's the mask situation there.

Probably a matter of time we will have to go Red once the contact tracing can no longer be done. But indeed it was an ugly sight when everyone went into panic mode.
 

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Probably a matter of time we will have to go Red once the contact tracing can no longer be done. But indeed it was an ugly sight when everyone went into panic mode.
If you're inclined, it would be interesting to hear more details on what's going on. I've heard that some shelves are bare, and some things are getting harder to find, like hand sanitizer, toilet paper, cleaning products, etc. I've also heard of very long lines in grocery stores. Is that about right? Or is it better/worse than that? Thanks for any details you feel like sharing!

To everyone in non-impacted areas, I'm going to be a broken record and mention again that now is a great time to stock up on stuff you'd use anyway. If nothing happens in your area, you've done your grocery shopping early. And if your area IS impacted, this will save you some grief later on. You really can't lose either way.
 

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If you're inclined, it would be interesting to hear more details on what's going on. I've heard that some shelves are bare, and some things are getting harder to find, like hand sanitizer, toilet paper, cleaning products, etc. I've also heard of very long lines in grocery stores. Is that about right? Or is it better/worse than that? Thanks for any details you feel like sharing!

Oh yes, happy to share of course.

Prior turning orange, a few household items were already gone for example the cleaning products. The government had advocated proper good hygiene by highlighting a couple of items in the website. Things like hand sanitizer were out of stock as well. During the lunar new year period, masks went out of stock despite government assurance there are plenty of stocks and to wear masks if you are unwell. To calm the public, they had issued 4 masks to every household and once again emphasis to wear only if unwell and stay at home to rest.

Last Friday, when Dorcon turned to orange, suddenly everyone went to panic mode and stocking up food. For the very first time we all witnessed empty shelves. I seriously wonder too why toilet paper. I asked around and they said well if it turned red, most shops will be closed. But I seriously still think it doesn't make any sense. Till I received a couple of forwarded WA messages rumoring the following

"The rumour is that the workers in China cannot go to work so cannot partake in the manufacture of toilet paper "

Sorry can't help but to roll eyes on this. Sorry, I've side-tracked.

For food, yes everything were flying off the shelves. Groceries websites went down as they experience an unusually high volume of traffic. They closed probably to prevent people from buying.

Our PM made a public announcement and speech on following Saturday evening assuring that we have more than enough and we shouldn't be doing this to hoard and stockpile. It was a painful sight for me to be honest that most of the people are behaving this way. When SARS happened in 2003 then, we had Dorcon orange as well but somehow people weren't acting that way. It could be from past experience, people felt they had to be ready and realised they can't do anything should we go RED. I personally think our government is prepared and have SOP in place for every stage.

Several things were in placed
- All tourists with history of travelling to mainland China will not allow entry.
- Locals returning from mainland China will have to declare and take the absence of leave of 14 days at home
- Various ministries stepped up and for all large scale, events are not allowed, cancelled and postponed.
- School is as usual however not allowed to hold mass group events or inter school events.
- Increase of area public cleaning and disinfecting.

I find it pretty amazing we had a government WA broadcast chat. It can quickly debunk all fake news immediately. My various group of WA chat will quickly highlight if is fake news or if the source is real. The vulnerable ones are the elderlies who hold smart phones need to be alerted that NOT all messages sharing are real. Several scam callers are appearing as well pretending to be contact tracing and asked for financial information.

A challenging time for Singapore. But like a friend said tough times don't last, tough people do :)
 
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ZF Lee

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If you're inclined, it would be interesting to hear more details on what's going on. I've heard that some shelves are bare, and some things are getting harder to find, like hand sanitizer, toilet paper, cleaning products, etc. I've also heard of very long lines in grocery stores. Is that about right? Or is it better/worse than that? Thanks for any details you feel like sharing!

To everyone in non-impacted areas, I'm going to be a broken record and mention again that now is a great time to stock up on stuff you'd use anyway. If nothing happens in your area, you've done your grocery shopping early. And if your area IS impacted, this will save you some grief later on. You really can't lose either way.
A good list of foods (besides just canned food) from Reddit's SHTF preppers sub:
https://www.reddit.com/r/preppers/comments/8mvomb View: https://www.reddit.com/r/preppers/comments/8mvomb/what_are_good_foods_to_stockpile/


Me getting out now to get more rice and foodstuff lol.
 

Xeon

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Probably a matter of time we will have to go Red once the contact tracing can no longer be done. But indeed it was an ugly sight when everyone went into panic mode.

Honestly, even if it turns red, it will probably just mean the country will be locked down with everyone staying indoors for 1 - 2 weeks (and even then, it's an unlikely scenario). In that event, if food is not enough, the gov will just ration food like we had in the 60s - 80s.

Looking at cases over the past few days, and across Asia, it would appear that enclosed air-con environments, or environments that are cold, makes the virus far more infectious and deadly.
Most of the cases here seems to be connected to such environments: the 2 churches, MBS, taxis, Hyatt hotel, Mustafa shopping center, and the chinese medicine shop (10 cases from that alone). Now, I'm not sure if that medicine shop has air-con though.

Looking at the cruise ship cases, which currently has 175 cases (which is far more than several countries put together), it has the same type of environment : enclosed air-con spaces.
In most provinces in China currently, the temperature is around 2 - 16 degrees, a recipe for disaster.

Anyway, hope the situation will get better. From a local perspective, I feel the situation in SG is well under control for now (we've been averaging 2 - 4 cases these few days with the exception of that 7-case day which I hope is a rare occurence). Looking at the positive side, 15 / 50 cases got discharged, which is pretty decent.

What I'm worried about are the 30,000+ Chinese workers that have returned, and are returning, over the next couple weeks. I kind of expect to see a high spike in cases in the coming 2 - 3 weeks here. Let's hope I'm wrong.

114ba5fe640e465fbda481bca347c533.png



*Side note : Even condoms got wiped off the shelves in that rampage last week lol wtf!!!!
 
Last edited:

Katherine

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Yup. The good thing for us is we have the big hot sun. That alone is a big plus for us vs China who is still in the cold wintery mode. Summer for China is still some time away though.
 
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loop101

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If China were to collapse in to anarchy, are there regions that would breakaway, like when the USSR collapsed?
 

Kybalion

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If China were to collapse in to anarchy, are there regions that would breakaway, like when the USSR collapsed?

Xinjiang and Tibet would be most likely to break away due to a large concentration of ethnic minorities (Uighurs and Tibetans), who've been violently suppressed by CCP.


 

SeePetey

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My largest business partner in China messaged me last night to tell me that production was delayed indefinitely. It’s probably the only honest answer coming out of China. They don’t get to decide when things will resume.
 

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