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HOT TOPIC Will the Wuhan Coronavirus kill us all? (Hyperbole, but a discussion)

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socaldude

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Im not the conspiracy theory type but there is evidence that this virus was genetically engineered either as a bioweapon or a vaccine.

The concerning thing about this virus is that there are HIV gene sequence insertions in this virus.
 

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UnrealCreative

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My largest business partner in China messaged me last night to tell me that production was delayed indefinitely. It’s probably the only honest answer coming out of China. They don’t get to decide when things will resume.
What are the implications for global trade?

Moving manufacturing away from China ASAP?

This is a damn Black Swan we're dealing with.
 

SeePetey

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So this is a book recommend, but totally related to this thread.

Factfulness: Ten Reasons We're Wrong About the World -- And Why Things are Better Than You Think

Anyone who deals with economic numbers, whether currency, deaths, pandemic figures, earnings, etc, and has ever doubted the accuracy or conclusions of the media or government reports should DEFINITELY read this book. It will change the way you look at the world.

The author (recently deceased) was a Swedish medical doctor turned economist/numbers wizard who was an advisor to WHO, the World Bank, and countless other organizations throughout the world.

His insights into global pandemics and how they're reported in the media vs. the reality of them are comforting (a taste of truth in a world of hysterical headlines) and very informative.
 

Vigilante

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The-J

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We're still stuck. No honest guesses as to when. Probably March, honestly.

The markets are taking a hit, too. Everything is slowing down. This is what happens when a big economy closes to deal with a public health crisis.
 

Xeon

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I doubt China will let this go on indefinitely. The fact that many factories are closed is hitting their economy hard (maybe not so bad now but it'll, as this drags on). Eventually, their gov will probably shift their strategy. As to what it is, I don't know.

This incident made me realize how dependent on China the world is. Heck, not just ecommerce, but down to the local mom-and-pop stalls.....

Im not the conspiracy theory type but there is evidence that this virus was genetically engineered either as a bioweapon or a vaccine.
The concerning thing about this virus is that there are HIV gene sequence insertions in this virus.
Some folks say it's from the US, some said it's from China itself.

The HIV gene thing is suspicious. Initially, I thought the US-engineered version sounds more plausible for obvious reasons, but after thinking about it from various perspectives, I feel the China-engineered version is more probable, assuming the thing is really man-made.

So, if it's man-made, likely it was a product from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, which is very close to where the first cases originated, and the workers probably made an unknowing mistake of not handling it properly due to carelessness / oversight, went out of the lab, carried the virus with him, and spreaded it around......
 
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loop101

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The number of nations and peoples that would benefit from China dissolving in to smaller countries seems to be: Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Tibet, South Korea, Falun Gong, and the Uighurs. If the trillions of USA debt sold to China were to effectively "disappear", that might help the USA. If China becomes hyper-focused on containing a possible Wuhan virus pandemic, I would expect these groups to act behind the scenes. Some not behind scenes. If things continue, I predict - rebellions within China.
 

sparechange

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Im not the conspiracy theory type but there is evidence that this virus was genetically engineered either as a bioweapon or a vaccine.

The concerning thing about this virus is that there are HIV gene sequence insertions in this virus.
lmao, i literally talked about this at work.

get the tin foil hat out...................

population control
 

Kevin88660

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The number of nations and peoples that would benefit from China dissolving in to smaller countries seems to be: Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Tibet, South Korea, Falun Gong, and the Uighurs. If the trillions of USA debt sold to China were to effectively "disappear", that might help the USA. If China becomes hyper-focused on containing a possible Wuhan virus pandemic, I would expect these groups to act behind the scenes. Some not behind scenes. If things continue, I predict - rebellions within China.
If China fails the world goes down with it.

Chinese productivity has been the key driver in keeping inflation low across the globe.

U.S. receives little benefit to have its debt written off. The U.S. economy and way of life is structurally debt dependent. Debt will always grow and always need new buyers. Running out of new buyers is a bigger problem with interest rate hitting the roof.
 

.B.

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China confirms 15,152 new coronavirus cases,
254 additional deaths
It seems that they decided to change the way they classify cases that day.
And that's why on the 12th there was so many death:
30513

30518
Source: How to interpret the 15,152 surge in COVID-19 new cases of February 12 - Worldometer

All this info is coming from this site that makes a daily recap:
30515
30516
 

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Quim Baig

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100 years ago 50M died in the 1918 Pandemic. It killed 3x the people WW1 did. We are about due for another one.

Accelerating infections:

They are treating an infected guy in Seattle using a robot:

"Plague Inc" is best selling iOS App:
In case somebody is interested in the real-time progression of the coronavirus.Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS

Is appears that the vast majority (81%) of the cases globally are in the Chinese region of Hubei.
 

@momo

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Jesus the panic from people on here, some of you should go work for the mainstream media.

China will get back to work soon and the world will go back talking about Donald Trump.
 

.B.

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Jesus the panic from people on here, some of you should go work for the mainstream media.

China will get back to work soon and the world will go back talking about Donald Trump.
True, I confess ;-)

I will still keep an eye on how it evolves though
 

scottmsul

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I've been following that Johns Hopkins app for a while now. I've mainly been looking at the total cases outside China since I feel it's more reliable than China's official statistics. I woke up pretty shocked this morning.

30545

The link was posted earlier in this thread but I'll repost it anyway: link
 

lowtek

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Jesus the panic from people on here, some of you should go work for the mainstream media.

China will get back to work soon and the world will go back talking about Donald Trump.
I don't see any panic. In fact, I see quite the opposite. I see a bunch of people asleep at the wheel.

Even using the purely manufactured Chinese numbers, the R0 of this virus, combined with its exceptionally long infectious incubation period, indicates that we're possibly in for some real shit in the next couple years. Far from being over, COVID-19 is just getting warmed up.
 

ZF Lee

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I don't see any panic. In fact, I see quite the opposite. I see a bunch of people asleep at the wheel.

Even using the purely manufactured Chinese numbers, the R0 of this virus, combined with its exceptionally long infectious incubation period, indicates that we're possibly in for some real shit in the next couple years. Far from being over, COVID-19 is just getting warmed up.
I wouldn't say it's 100% of the virus' fault.
It'll probably the catalyst to the pulling-away of the tides, and we'll see whether the Chinese economy really has its pants on.

On one hand, my peers and relative crow over it being 'the economic power to-be'.
On the other, I've read report after report on how its economic numbers are fudged up, one way or another.

So I truly don't feel that it's all rosy.

Especially this:

While I don't expect the Chinese financial authorities to do nothing, I just hope they won't go the way of the QE sword that the USA is holding on to.
 

.B.

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ok, something a bit positive:
30547
source: Coronavirus affected countries: UK - Covid-19 measures and impact

On 25/01, the UK was looking after 1.500 people who had come back from Wuhan (so at least they were trying to be a bit proactive about it)

On 17/02, they only have 9 confirmed cases out of 3.109 suspected people.
I thought that the ratio would be worse.
 
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.B.

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I don't see any panic. In fact, I see quite the opposite. I see a bunch of people asleep at the wheel.

Even using the purely manufactured Chinese numbers, the R0 of this virus, combined with its exceptionally long infectious incubation period, indicates that we're possibly in for some real shit in the next couple years. Far from being over, COVID-19 is just getting warmed up.
Hi @lowtek , can you remind us of what is the R0?
 

reedracer

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Hi @lowtek , can you remind us of what is the R0?
 

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lowtek

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Some more recent research has pegged the R0 as as high as 6, which puts it in smallpox and polio territory. Of course, this is all very preliminary and we won't know until it spreads to more western nations who will (hopefully) be more transparent.
 

Mattie

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Hard to say whether you'll die from it. You'd have to be in the right place at the right time to attract the Virus unless you live near China. I am a former nurse aide so I naturally know to in public places to not use faucets with paper towels or have hand sanitizer, just sing Twinkle Little Star as they told us. Wash your hands. If I was on a plane, I'd wipe off the tray and arm rests with some type of wipes that kill germs. If it's airborne, not a lot you can do about it if you're in a place and like this without knowing who is a carrier.

It's mostly public places you have to worry about. Chewing on Pens and Pencils. Bad Habit. Door knobs. Nothing wrong with carrying around some Clorox Wipes. lol Fit real well in backpack or brief case.

I suppose you can carry a mask around if you need too as well. Really, there's no way to detect where someone's been.
 

@momo

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I don't see any panic. In fact, I see quite the opposite. I see a bunch of people asleep at the wheel.

Even using the purely manufactured Chinese numbers, the R0 of this virus, combined with its exceptionally long infectious incubation period, indicates that we're possibly in for some real shit in the next couple years. Far from being over, COVID-19 is just getting warmed up.
I don't know where you are getting your information from but do scientists even know much about the virus? If China is blocking information then how do you know all of this?

People are talking through their a$$. No one knows how bad this virus actually is yet because the media is there to sell a story and China may not be telling the truth.

It reminds me of the episode in the Simpsons when the comet is about to head towards Springfield and everyone is panicking saying the world is going to end and Homer is the only person who says the comet will shrink to the size of a Chihuahuas head, then Homer turns out to be correct.

In this day and age I don't see a pandemic happening. I see news is able to spread fast which will help greatly in keeping this virus under control. The science and help that is a available today is phenomenol.

People
I don't see any panic. In fact, I see quite the opposite. I see a bunch of people asleep at the wheel.

Even using the purely manufactured Chinese numbers, the R0 of this virus, combined with its exceptionally long infectious incubation period, indicates that we're possibly in for some real shit in the next couple years. Far from being over, COVID-19 is just getting warmed up.
 

Xeon

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Be honest.. how many ya'll suckin Big Macs while you worry about death by Coronavirus?
The witty one-liner writing skills that Americans have never cease to amaze me and make laugh my socks off. Now I know where to hire writers to come up with captions for my IG posts.
 

.B.

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I worked on designing a crisis centre for the European Commission, to be used in case of major health emergencies like a worldwide flu pandemic.

None of the professionals working there thought "In this day and age I don't see a pandemic happening. ".
They were scared that the virus that would follow SARS would be devastating.

But it's true that working on that project with them made me a bit paranoïd
...and probably too fast on the trigger :-D

In this day and age I don't see a pandemic happening.
So I would love to be an optimist like you @MoMo. And I mean it :)

Just make sure you don't fall for the normalcy bias

Normalcy Bias. The normalcy bias, or normality bias, is a belief people hold when there is a possibility of a disaster. It causes people to underestimate both the likelihood of a disaster and its possible effects, because people believe that things will always function the way things normally have functioned. This may result in situations where people fail to adequately prepare themselves for disasters, and on a larger scale, the failure of governments to include the populace in its disaster preparations. About 70% of people reportedly display normalcy bias in disasters.


In terms of the "source of info", my girlfriend is from Wuhan.
(Her parents have been blocked in their apartment for 3 weeks now.
That made it feel pretty real to me, not just numbers in an article.)

And without trusting the official info published, I could at least base my assumptions/fears about the virus on how I was told that the Chinese government was dealing with the problem, and changing its tactic each passing day...

So I guess that the balanced approach is the best:

Don't go in "worst case scenario" too fast like me, but monitor the evolution, and have at least a few scenarios in mind (and how it could impact you), and then decide what you want to do about it.
 
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