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HOT TOPIC Where the Economy is Heading (Follow-Up on "The Coming Recession")

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WJK

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The great depression was literally caused by President Hoover starting a trade war. The gov't is the biggest con-man there is. They cause a problem, deny it was them, then say they have the solution which then causes more problems and the cycle repeats.

Another example is Bernie almost getting elected because of the student loan crisis which was caused by gov't in the first place.

The Gov't is the cause of this next crisis and nobody will understand that. The people will vote for more gov't as the cycle continues on and on..
I tend to be a Libertarian, so I hate big government. It's a necessary evil in my eyes. I just want to left alone so I can do my thing and keep my profits.
 

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Kak

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Yes, it was created before, but it gained its real power from the GD and the New Deal. A lot of their programs harken back to fixing the damages of the excesses of the Roaring 20s and resulting stock margin calls.

Yes, there are a lot of ghost towns that have come and gone. Some got up and going. Some didn't. The Southwestern desert is full of those relics. And then we have the "rust belt" throughout most of the middle of our country right due to outsourcing.

You say that the " entire economy is based on muddy water and artificial fixation". Can you explain that a little more? Are you talking about banking, manufacturing, globalization, the stock market, the real estate market... or all of it?

All of it. Every single facet is subject to the currency manipulation. Overall affordability of everything is heavily subject to interest rates which are NOT set by supply and demand.

So yeah. The supply and demand curve of imports, exports, stock, bonds, real estate, private company valuations, inventory and services are all manipulated.

Trying to determine the true market price for anything right now is basically impossible.
 

WJK

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All of it. Every single facet is subject to the currency manipulation. Overall affordability of everything is heavily subject to interest rates which are NOT set by supply and demand.

So yeah. The supply and demand curve of imports, exports, stock, bonds, real estate, private company valuations, inventory and services are all manipulated.

Trying to determine the true market price for anything right now is basically impossible.
So, what do you do? Sit it out? Jump into the fray? Go live in the woods off-grid with the moose? Hedge your bet by moving in multiple markets?

In 1996 when I bought my first house, FHA 203b, interest on mortgages was 9.5%. That's when I got my RE salesman license. At the beginning of 1980, to squelch inflation, mortgages interest rates suddenly went to 22% and then 24%. The world stopped for us in the RE business. It took years for the market to correct itself.

My partner and I owned two RE offices. One was a garden variety residential office. In the other, we were putting together "plotage" with multiple sellers for residential tract projects. It took an average of at least 18 to 24 months to close those deals. We had several projects on the board in progress. We lost them all and over two years' worth of work that we had put into them. The lenders pulled our developer/contractor's funding. Talk about hard times and a heartbreak moment.

I guess I'm telling you that I personally know about the government play God with the interest rates and manipulating the market.
 

Kid

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I am concerned about the investors who have tenants who aren't paying, their mortgage payment aren't being made and they used OPM (other people's money) to buy their real estate.
Overall affordability of everything is heavily subject to interest rates which are NOT set by supply and demand.

That's the problem, and being aware of this problem is an solution.
If one ware told that he can make %6 per year from his investment in RE,
and lenders would give him money at %1, then whoha! Free %5!
And they would buy on mortgage.

If it would be %5.5 loan, then they would see the risk - that they would have to have near 100% occupation for the life of the loan and they wouldn't risk.

To answer truly to WJK question "So, what do you do?", i would have to say "I don't know".
But what i do know is that knowing that those things aren't accidental gives clearer mind.
 

WJK

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What is a good skill to work on entering a recession?
Anything basic. I have low to moderate-income rentals, a self-service laundromat, and other investments. People must live somewhere and they must wash their clothes someday. My skill set includes business management and selling -- as well as my law degree (JD). I'm not using the law education as they intended -- I'm not practicing law -- but the education does come in handy most days. I have learned the wider your knowledge, the easier the world becomes.

Also, it's all in the attitude. I'm not too good to do anything or any job. If there's trash on the ground, I cheerfully picked it up and throw it away. If a toilet needs to be cleaned, I grab a brush, then and there, and I swish it out. I personally do or I assign someone to take care of a lot of little issues and jobs. They could become big things if left undone. Noticing those details is a life skill that works. I don't have to be hit with a baseball bat to get my attention. My job, as the boss, is to notice when things need attention and make sure they are fixed in a timely manner.

I'm saying I'd be work on basic life skills. They work in good times and bad.
 

socaldude

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Where is the economy headed? Probably just the usual stagflation. This time I don’t think the Fed will be so lucky. Can’t wait until a Big Mac costs $20.

Eventually we will have a massive economic collapse. Massive centralized control and allocation of resources in the hands of the Fed and the Govt does not work. Yes, the BS fiscal and monetary policy taught in academia as “normal” is not normal. Real economics is debt free productivity in the hands of private citizens.

All throughout history it’s been the same pattern. It’s like communism. It was presented with bad intentions and not as a real economic solution. It was so the govt can become more powerful by controlling all the resources. It was a ruse and a scam. Most people don’t know that. And it really isn’t any different when the US govt(or any govt) wants to own and control everything. And me and you the taxpayer get the middle finger with a bunch of debt.

Stop govt borrowing. Remove the Fed. Limit govt spending and control. Remove centralized control of currency, 0% rates is a fake bankers wet dream. Our economic problems won’t go away until we root out the cause.
 
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WJK

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Where is the economy headed? Probably just the usual stagflation. This time I don’t think the Fed will be so lucky. Can’t wait until a Big Mac costs $20.

Eventually we will have a massive economic collapse. Massive centralized control and allocation of resources in the hands of the Fed and the Govt does not work. Yes, the BS fiscal and monetary policy taught in academia as “normal” is not normal. Real economics is debt free productivity in the hands of private citizens.

All throughout history it’s been the same pattern. It’s like communism. It was presented with bad intentions and not as a real economic solution. It was so the govt can become more powerful by controlling all the resources. It was a ruse and a scam. Most people don’t know that. And it really isn’t any different when the US govt(or any govt) wants to own and control everything. And me and you the taxpayer get the middle finger with a bunch of debt.

Stop govt borrowing. Remove the Fed. Limit govt spending and control. Remove centralized control of currency, 0% rates is a fake bankers wet dream. Our economic problems won’t go away until we root out the cause.
I agree. We must find a way to stop the Federal Government from spending more than it takes in. I must balance my budget -- why not them? I've been working on the Convention of States for several years. I'd like to pass a Constitutional amendment to prohibit debt spending. Some term limits for Congress would be nice too. There should be no such thing as a career politician.
 

socaldude

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I agree. We must find a way to stop the Federal Government from spending more than it takes in. I must balance my budget -- why not them?

Watch the 1996 documentary Money Masters by Bill Still “how international bankers gained control of America”. That’s the best documentary on money of all time. Passing an amendment won’t work. It’s how our money supply is created.

I can’t help but to think that the founders of Bitcoin got the idea from this documentary with the British tally stick system.

The fed is a carbon copy of the Bank of England that bought British govt consols with money created out of nothing.

I think Bill Still ran as an independent in the last presidential election. Lol love Bill still.
 

Andreas Thiel

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I think by now it is important to take note that the World Economic Forum wants a reset and this keeps getting picked up by mainstream media. A new Bretton-Woods moment has been announced by Kristalina Georgieva already ... that might be why governments don't "have to" balance their budgets.

Implications ... probably some of the cash should go into gold and bitcoin (maybe DEFI in general) which is likely to store value a lot better.
 

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WJK

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I think by now it is important to take note that the World Economic Forum wants a reset and this keeps getting picked up by mainstream media. A new Bretton-Woods moment has been announced by Kristalina Georgieva already ... that might be why governments don't "have to" balance their budgets.

Implications ... probably some of the cash should go into gold and bitcoin (maybe DEFI in general) which is likely to store value a lot better.
The idea of "globalism" is taking a bunch of hits right now. The international money guys are trying to put all of us humans under their heavy thumbs.
 

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