"the quality of our lives is the sum of our decisions plus luck" - Annie Duke
I have many tools to make decisions. It really depends on the context. There are few I use often.
10-10-10
I ask myself three questions:
- how would I feel in 10 mins for now?
- what about in 10 months?
- what about in 10 years?
Consequential/reversible decision matrix
A modify Eisenhower decision matrix with if a decision is consequential on the x axis and if it is reversible on the y axis. Consequential and irreversible decision warrants further thinking. Reversible ones, less so.
Occam Razor
Simpler explanations are more likely to be true than complex one. And so I err for the most part towards simplicity when debating two decisions.
Inversion
A tricky one, kinda a premortem. If I want to achieve x, say losing 5 pounds. Instead of asking "what should I do to lose 5 pounds?", I would ask what are the things that I can do to gain 5 pounds. And then not do them
Uncle point framework (from Skin in The Game)
So for this one is a way to Hedge your downside risk. Say you are making a business decision with an expected net value of 100000$. If one of the scenario can bankrupt your company, even with a positive NPV, it is a bad bet
Second order thinking
Going beyond the immediate results of the decision. Some decisions have a negative payout in the short term but a large positive payout in the long run. Pair well with the previous framework
Bayes thinking
I am forcing myself to think in probability. Instead of a black or white default way of thinking. Struggling with this one a bit
Voila!
I have many tools to make decisions. It really depends on the context. There are few I use often.
10-10-10
I ask myself three questions:
- how would I feel in 10 mins for now?
- what about in 10 months?
- what about in 10 years?
Consequential/reversible decision matrix
A modify Eisenhower decision matrix with if a decision is consequential on the x axis and if it is reversible on the y axis. Consequential and irreversible decision warrants further thinking. Reversible ones, less so.
Occam Razor
Simpler explanations are more likely to be true than complex one. And so I err for the most part towards simplicity when debating two decisions.
Inversion
A tricky one, kinda a premortem. If I want to achieve x, say losing 5 pounds. Instead of asking "what should I do to lose 5 pounds?", I would ask what are the things that I can do to gain 5 pounds. And then not do them
Uncle point framework (from Skin in The Game)
So for this one is a way to Hedge your downside risk. Say you are making a business decision with an expected net value of 100000$. If one of the scenario can bankrupt your company, even with a positive NPV, it is a bad bet
Second order thinking
Going beyond the immediate results of the decision. Some decisions have a negative payout in the short term but a large positive payout in the long run. Pair well with the previous framework
Bayes thinking
I am forcing myself to think in probability. Instead of a black or white default way of thinking. Struggling with this one a bit
Voila!