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icemat

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So it looks like TSLA is going to the moon right now. Kind of reminds me of Bitcoin back in 2017.

Everyone around me is saying to buy a put or to short the stock, but I've seen people get burned before. It's extremely difficult to call tops.

What does everyone think about TSLA? Is it going to top out at ~$904 or keep going higher?
 

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Megalodon

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Even if it does go higher - arguably it's over valued at present. A meteoric rise usually comes before a fall.

I personally wouldn't invest in anything that volatile and/or tied to a single personality. All it would take is Elon to have a car crash or the SpaceX stuff to go poorly and watch the value plummet...

As a general rule, if everyone is talking about an investment opportunity you've missed the boat.
 

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All it would take is Elon to have a car crash or the SpaceX stuff to go poorly and watch the value plummet...

Um... doesn't that kind of back up his point?

A meteoric rise usually comes before a fall.

And this too?

I'm not touching it, but I won't tell you not to...
 

icemat

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As a general rule, if everyone is talking about an investment opportunity you've missed the boat.

Yeah, it's something I learned from BTC back in the day. This would be a great time to linearly scale your position out if you had TSLA previously. But too bad I didn't have any TSLA stock before this meteoric rise/fall.

This is going to be fun to watch, though!
 

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Um... doesn't that kind of back up his point?



And this too?

I'm not touching it, but I won't tell you not to...
Yes, if I'd read his post properly (clearly not enough coffee on board! :rofl:) it does back a short position.

To clarify, I still wouldn't. The same volatility also cuts the other way and it's too popular for my taste.

Horses for courses however!
 

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So it looks like TSLA is going to the moon right now. Kind of reminds me of Bitcoin back in 2017.

Everyone around me is saying to buy a put or to short the stock, but I've seen people get burned before. It's extremely difficult to call tops.

What does everyone think about TSLA? Is it going to top out at ~$904 or keep going higher?
"Don’t play games that you don’t understand, even if you see lots of other people making money from them" -- Tony Hsieh
 

icemat

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"Don’t play games that you don’t understand, even if you see lots of other people making money from them" -- Tony Hsieh

Well it looks like TSLA crashed back down. We'll see how far it keeps going down however. Would have been a quick way to make ~13% profit but there's always going to be opportunities.
 

icemat

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Another parabolic move today. Up to $1500! I’m thinking a mean reversion is going to take place in the coming weeks so selling a call spread might be a good play.
 

Martin.G

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If it is raising up now it's because all the investor are follow it, and that it's a problem because you are not going to get so much from that. Maybe it's going to keep going up or crash, but it is not a rational movement or something that you can predict at the end.
 

icemat

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If it is raising up now it's because all the investor are follow it, and that it's a problem because you are not going to get so much from that. Maybe it's going to keep going up or crash, but it is not a rational movement or something that you can predict at the end.

TSLA shooting up to new ATHs, this time I'm definitely aware of how to short and I've set up a trading plan to fade the trade. Will let you guys know how it went!

RSI indicator and volume are showing a bearish divergence. Going to wait until the stock closes below the ATH today and then short at the open tomorrow. Going to set a stop in case I'm wrong and TSLA keeps going to the moon like SpaceX.
 

Kid

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44% in 9 days. cool.

But look at numbers:
TSLA has market cap of 370.49B.
They sold 891,000 units since 2012.
That puts value of each car at ~$415,263.
That's almost half a million.

Do they retail for that much?
 

LucasTheGloucas

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TSLA shooting up to new ATHs, this time I'm definitely aware of how to short and I've set up a trading plan to fade the trade. Will let you guys know how it went!

RSI indicator and volume are showing a bearish divergence. Going to wait until the stock closes below the ATH today and then short at the open tomorrow. Going to set a stop in case I'm wrong and TSLA keeps going to the moon like SpaceX.
When even your barber starts talking about "did you invest in X?" it's time to worry.

Time to worry yes. However...not the same thing as time to short. People just like you who thought they knew the time to short are the ones driving this up higher, endlessly short squeezing each other out of it.

Don't short Tesla as a speculative move to make money. You're not creating value, you're contributing to the casino.
 

icemat

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Time to worry yes. However...not the same thing as time to short. People just like you who thought they knew the time to short are the ones driving this up higher, endlessly short squeezing each other out of it.

Don't short Tesla as a speculative move to make money. You're not creating value, you're contributing to the casino.

You're right. I saw TSLA pulled another ATH so I didn't enter any short position. I'm just watching the whole market right now, carefully, cautiously. I feel a bubble coming and have some OTM puts on SPY/SPX in case it does. Adding to my longs seems a little careless at this point. Just mostly waiting and watching right now.
 

Kid

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Put options are already overpriced to the point its not worth the risk.

34587

Even options that expire earlier would have to see 50% in decline of TSLA price to yield anything meaningful.
 

Saavedra

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44% in 9 days. cool.

But look at numbers:
TSLA has market cap of 370.49B.
They sold 891,000 units since 2012.
That puts value of each car at ~$415,263.
That's almost half a million.

Do they retail for that much?
Tesla is not just cars though. Just self driving tech by itself is worth more than all car manufacturers combined.
 

daivey

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Tesla is not just cars though. Just self driving tech by itself is worth more than all car manufacturers combined.

i think people are buying into 'self driving car' way to much.
It's not proven.
"but it works, it's proven".
No, it's not. It's proven in "perfect" ideal conditions only. Once you throw rain, snow, ice, fog, into the mix, it doesn't work.... Notice how all of their self driving routes are perfectly pre-planned, with a big emphasis on the weather? There is a reason for that.

Don't get me wrong, I love Tesla. I love their cars. But it's way over-hyped.

In addition to this I would point out that governments will need to pass legislation to allow it. And many will not.... not for a looooong time. Not until they can prove a near perfect system... Computing has come a long way, but it's not that far yet.
 

jon2089

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excited for battery day and q3 results. q3 will have an additional 7 weeks of production from Freemont which will be the first full quarter of Model Y deliveries which has much better margings then the 3. 2 weeks extra production at Shanghai factory .
 

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