The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

[ChrisV]

What fallacy?

forget it... I’m bored of covid

 

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[QDF]

Something I’ve seen mentioned but not really researched much yet is the impact that the initial dose (how much of the virus a person is exposed to) of the virus has on a person’s viral load and the overall severity of their case.

For example, if you are exposed to a very small amount of the virus vs. if you are exposed to a much larger amount, are you more likely to have a more mild case?

Influenza, SARS, and MERS all follow the same pattern — a person who is exposed to a higher initial dose of the virus tends to develop a more severe case of the virus. Viruses don’t just seem to spread exponentially within a population, but within each individual as well. In other words, if you're infected with a large initial dose, your immune system is trying to play catch up and may not be able to get ahead of the exponential curve that is the growth of the virus.

On the scale of an entire population, this may show up as a lower fatality rate in rural areas compared to urban areas. Perhaps this was a major factor in why NYC — the most densely populated city in the US — was hit much harder than anywhere else?

@GIlman I know you’ve mentioned this briefly, and I researched it a bit, but it seems there isn’t a ton of research being done on this.

You mentioned variolation (intentionally infecting people with the minimum infectious dose with the goal to trigger a mild case and develop natural antibodies) being used in the past.

I’m curious what your thoughts are on this. If a lower initial dose does indeed affect the severity of the case, do you think we could utilize this (at least among the healthiest and least vulnerable) to speed up herd immunity while reducing overall fatality rates? There is of course a risk associated with this, but as you've mentioned, there can also be a great deal of risk associated with a vaccine, especially one rushed to market.

While I can see why testing this theory wouldn’t be very popular, I am sure there wouldn’t be a shortage of healthy volunteers in the US to carry out such a test. Furthermore, I’m sure we are already measuring and tracking viral loads of hospitalized patients, so I wonder if there has been any trend in the viral load of non-survivors vs. survivors.

I believe we have to reopen the economy -- but even with a 0.3% fatality rate, if this eventually infects even 250M Americans (roughly 75% of US pop), we're still looking at 750K dead over the next 1-2 years, which may be a very real possibility if no effective treatment is found. I'd like to believe we will find some sort of treatment or a better strategy before then...

 

[Kak]

forget it... I’m bored of covid

I have had the same facts based analysis, voiced in this thread since early March. My numbers have just gotten better. I was initially attacking price gouging laws which were the first of many interventionist policies to come.

At the time I was still getting attacked by Trevor for reasons I don’t think either one of us understand. I was in a pissing match with Jscott. 2/3 of the forum’s members were actively licking boot. The post got like 3 likes.

The forum was shocked when I said that no peaceable citizen should be locked in their home by force. No peaceable citizen should be refused due process or required to wear an ankle bracelet.

I went on @GIlman podcast. I could tell he was dipping a toe in. And now he as come to the same conclusion I have been on the entire time.

I have been here. The whole time. Never wavering. It wasn’t hard to be right in my mind because I support freedom at any expense anyway.

Today, fastlane boot licker island has like 4 residents... I am proud of everyone for coming around, but those that were licking boot in the beginning were the swing vote so to speak. Commies will always be commies and capitalists will always be capitalists. Those in the middle get to decide which way we go. They are the reason for the damaged economy.

Calling my well thought out analysis of this entire scam a fallacy, with no grounds, is just a fallacy itself.

I believe what I preach.

 

[hellolin]

Made me think of your post:

This is a power grab we haven’t seen since 9/11 | Schiff Sovereign

Thousands of years ago in 458 BC, Lucius Quintius Cincinnatus was hard at work behind his plow on the family farm when a group of Roman Senators showed up with urgent news. A foreign enemy called the…

www.sovereignman.com

The most important point:

What I’m most concerned about at this point is NOT the virus, nor even the economic devastation.

I’m far more concerned at how governments have seized this opportunity to vastly expand their power.

They have us all cowering in our homes, stripped of the most basic freedoms to do just about anything.

People are being thrown off their own private property because they’re not an ‘official resident’ of the town. Others have been arrested for attending a funeral. Others threatened with jail for their social media posts.

Content everywhere is being heavily censored, with major tech companies like Google and Facebook telling us what we can/cannot say.

Governments around the world are tracking their citizens’ every movement, and now there’s talk of national health databases and special passports.

And they’re spending trillions of dollars without any thought of the consequences.

It’s a power grab we haven’t seen since 9/11. The circumstances are certainly similar: people are terrified, so the government is doing whatever it wants.

Again, the public health problems will eventually be fixed. Even the economy will some day recover.

But there’s going to be a huge impact to our freedom from this astonishing growth of unchecked government power. And a lot of those changes will be with us permanently.

Once again, those kind of analysis never talked about how people wanted this to happen, instead it always blames the bigger force at play. Makes no difference than the frequent "rich people are evil" rants. You can't blame big corporations without also blame the consumers and their choices, same rule applies here.

How about if we do come out of this, one way or another, people in the US will finally realize that living a healthy lifestyle, regular exercises and NOT BEING OBESE is their own responsibility and when shit like this happens, no one should be saving you by locking ourselves down once again?

 

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[hellolin]

Something I’ve seen mentioned but not really researched much yet is the impact that the initial dose (how much of the virus a person is exposed to) of the virus has on a person’s viral load and the overall severity of their case.

For example, if you are exposed to a very small amount of the virus vs. if you are exposed to a much larger amount, are you more likely to have a more mild case?

Influenza, SARS, and MERS all follow the same pattern — a person who is exposed to a higher initial dose of the virus tends to develop a more severe case of the virus. Viruses don’t just seem to spread exponentially within a population, but within each individual as well.

On the scale of an entire population, this may show up as a lower fatality rate in rural areas compared to urban areas. Perhaps this was a major factor in why NYC — the most densely populated city in the US — was hit much harder than anywhere else?

I know you’ve mentioned this briefly, and I researched it a bit, but it seems there isn’t a ton of research being done on this.

@GIlman You mentioned variolation (intentionally infecting people with the minimum infectious dose with the goal to trigger a mild case and develop natural antibodies) being used in the past.

I’m curious what your thoughts are on this. If a lower initial dose does indeed affect the severity of the case, do you think we could utilize this (at least among the healthiest and least vulnerable) to speed up herd immunity while reducing overall fatality rates?

While I can see why testing this theory wouldn’t be very popular, I am sure there wouldn’t be a shortage of healthy volunteers in the US to carry out such a test. Furthermore, I’m sure we are already measuring and tracking viral loads of hospitalized patients, so I wonder if there has been any trend in the viral load of non-survivors vs. survivors.

I believe we have to reopen the economy -- but even with a 0.03% fatality rate, if this eventually infects even 250M Americans (roughly 75% of US pop), we're still looking at 750K dead over the next 1-2 years, which may be a very real possibility if no effective treatment is found. I'd like to believe we will find some sort of treatment or a better strategy before then...

From what I heard, viral load is what makes a difference in the younger population coherent. This means what once we do open up the economy, which is happening slowly in the next 2 month, we'd all have practice cleaning procedures very clearly to eliminate as much contact with virus as possible.

 

[Vigilante]

forget it... I’m bored of covid

And that’s how liberty gets restored.

The models implode on themselves and the analysts move onto shiny new topics.

There’s one caveat. Those of you who advocated for “safer at home” have to stay at home for the next few months while the capitalists restart the economy. We will let you know when it is safe for you to come out. You sure the hell better not come out now when you caused the shut down. Stay home.

 

[GIlman]

Something I’ve seen mentioned but not really researched much yet is the impact that the initial dose (how much of the virus a person is exposed to) of the virus has on a person’s viral load and the overall severity of their case.

For example, if you are exposed to a very small amount of the virus vs. if you are exposed to a much larger amount, are you more likely to have a more mild case?

Influenza, SARS, and MERS all follow the same pattern — a person who is exposed to a higher initial dose of the virus tends to develop a more severe case of the virus. Viruses don’t just seem to spread exponentially within a population, but within each individual as well. In other words, if you're infected with a large initial dose, your immune system is trying to play catch up and may not be able to get ahead of the exponential curve that is the growth of the virus.

On the scale of an entire population, this may show up as a lower fatality rate in rural areas compared to urban areas. Perhaps this was a major factor in why NYC — the most densely populated city in the US — was hit much harder than anywhere else?

@GIlman I know you’ve mentioned this briefly, and I researched it a bit, but it seems there isn’t a ton of research being done on this.

You mentioned variolation (intentionally infecting people with the minimum infectious dose with the goal to trigger a mild case and develop natural antibodies) being used in the past.

I’m curious what your thoughts are on this. If a lower initial dose does indeed affect the severity of the case, do you think we could utilize this (at least among the healthiest and least vulnerable) to speed up herd immunity while reducing overall fatality rates? There is of course a risk associated with this, but as you've mentioned, there can also be a great deal of risk associated with a vaccine, especially one rushed to market.

While I can see why testing this theory wouldn’t be very popular, I am sure there wouldn’t be a shortage of healthy volunteers in the US to carry out such a test. Furthermore, I’m sure we are already measuring and tracking viral loads of hospitalized patients, so I wonder if there has been any trend in the viral load of non-survivors vs. survivors.

I believe we have to reopen the economy -- but even with a 0.03% fatality rate, if this eventually infects even 250M Americans (roughly 75% of US pop), we're still looking at 750K dead over the next 1-2 years, which may be a very real possibility if no effective treatment is found. I'd like to believe we will find some sort of treatment or a better strategy before then...

This has been very true for some viral infections, that outcome is related to viral exposure load. This is thought to be true in this illness too, but I haven’t found a good source that has done the analysis.

There are a couple things with variolation, first you have to prove that outcome with intentional low dose infection diminishes the risk. If the risk of disability or death is the same, I.e. it’s not dose dependent exposure that matters, then it serves no purpose.

You also have to get public buyin. There seems to be a bias, which I don't know of a name for it, but I’ll call it Not It bias. Basically if 65% of the population statistically will get an illness, much > than 35% of people believe that they will be in the group that does not get the illness, which obviously is not true. This taints people perspective in doing something they would otherwise not do in daily living if there is substantial perceived or actual risk. They believe they will be the lucky one and never get sick so why take any risk at all.

With variolation there is always some risk, the risk of a bad outcome or death is not zero, and may in fact be significant even if when compared to the actual illness is much much less.

The risk of variolation is certainly much much greater than the risk of vaccination. When your looking at a population as a group any treatment/intervention can make sense in a statistical way it may not on a one by one individual basis. In population studies there are no individuals, everyone is blurred into a statistic (say 95% fewer deaths). As an individual, everything is binary, you are either alive or dead, there is no 95% alive. That is what has and will make variolation a hard sell, and understandably so.

From what I heard, viral load is what makes a difference in the younger population coherent. This means what once we do open up the economy, which is happening slowly in the next 2 month, we'd all have practice cleaning procedures very clearly to eliminate as much contact with virus as possible.

The place viral load has appeared to have the greatest risk is homes with infected family members or any place people have continued high levels of exposure (hospitals, prisons, etc). Casual community acquired illness is probably some of the lowest risk as far as death is concerned.

@Kak, I know any opposition I ever really had to your view points were always more based on the perception I had that you believed the illness itself was not a significant or serious health risk - quite possible a misperception on my part. That’s a majority of the healthy debates I’ve entered into. Well intentioned debate is always good.

 

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[Contrarian]

Made me think of your post:

This is a power grab we haven’t seen since 9/11 | Schiff Sovereign

Thousands of years ago in 458 BC, Lucius Quintius Cincinnatus was hard at work behind his plow on the family farm when a group of Roman Senators showed up with urgent news. A foreign enemy called the…

www.sovereignman.com

The most important point:

What I’m most concerned about at this point is NOT the virus, nor even the economic devastation.

I’m far more concerned at how governments have seized this opportunity to vastly expand their power.

They have us all cowering in our homes, stripped of the most basic freedoms to do just about anything.

People are being thrown off their own private property because they’re not an ‘official resident’ of the town. Others have been arrested for attending a funeral. Others threatened with jail for their social media posts.

Content everywhere is being heavily censored, with major tech companies like Google and Facebook telling us what we can/cannot say.

Governments around the world are tracking their citizens’ every movement, and now there’s talk of national health databases and special passports.

And they’re spending trillions of dollars without any thought of the consequences.

It’s a power grab we haven’t seen since 9/11. The circumstances are certainly similar: people are terrified, so the government is doing whatever it wants.

Again, the public health problems will eventually be fixed. Even the economy will some day recover.

But there’s going to be a huge impact to our freedom from this astonishing growth of unchecked government power. And a lot of those changes will be with us permanently.

That's weird. I was reading that exact article in my inbox, then the very next thing I did was come over here and read your post. Gotta love a bit of Sovereign Man!

 

[Vigilante]

Hey @ChrisV Did you delete a post? We need another thread about your deleted post. People can’t just delete posts.

 

[ChrisV]

Hey @ChrisV Did you delete a post? We need another thread about your deleted post. People can’t just delete posts.

All I wrote was #landfill.. but you already knew that.

 

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[Trevor Kuntz]

All I wrote was #landfill.. but you already knew that.

I'm not sure what your post was because I stopped following this thread for a couple days, but if you're going to delete your posts, you also have to delete everyone else's posts, related or not.

Oh wait, you're not a mod. Nevermind. Carry on, pleb.

 

[ChrisV]

I stopped following this thread for a couple days

You're clearly smarter than I am.

but if you're going to delete your posts, you also have to delete everyone else's posts, related or not.

Oh wait, you're not a mod. Nevermind. Carry on, pleb.

I know... funny part was I never even commented on that deleted posts stuff. That was @Longinus

I guess the names are easy to confuse though.

 

[Trevor Kuntz]

This has been very true for some viral infections, that outcome is related to viral exposure load. This is thought to be true in this illness too, but I haven’t found a good source that has done the analysis.

There are a couple things with variolation, first you have to prove that outcome with intentional low dose infection diminishes the risk. If the risk of disability or death is the same, I.e. it’s not dose dependent exposure that matters, then it serves no purpose.

You also have to get public buyin. There seems to be a bias, which I don't know of a name for it, but I’ll call it Not It bias. Basically if 65% of the population statistically will get an illness, much > than 35% of people believe that they will be in the group that does not get the illness, which obviously is not true. This taints people perspective in doing something they would otherwise not do in daily living if there is substantial perceived or actual risk. They believe they will be the lucky one and never get sick so why take any risk at all.

With variolation there is always some risk, the risk of a bad outcome or death is not zero, and may in fact be significant even if when compared to the actual illness is much much less.

The risk of variolation is certainly much much greater than the risk of vaccination. When your looking at a population as a group any treatment/intervention can make sense in a statistical way it may not on a one by one individual basis. In population studies there are no individuals, everyone is blurred into a statistic (say 95% fewer deaths). As an individual, everything is binary, you are either alive or dead, there is no 95% alive. That is what has and will make variolation a hard sell, and understandably so.



The place viral load has appeared to have the greatest risk is homes with infected family members or any place people have continued high levels of exposure (hospitals, prisons, etc). Casual community acquired illness is probably some of the lowest risk as far as death is concerned.

@Kak, I know any opposition I ever really had to your view points were always more based on the perception I had that you believed the illness itself was not a significant or serious health risk - quite possible a misperception on my part. That’s a majority of the healthy debates I’ve entered into. Well intentioned debate is always good.

Thanks for your insights, Gilman. Always challenging my understanding of the situation.

I know... funny part was I never even commented on that deleted posts stuff. That was @Longinus

And me. But my posts got deleted

 

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[James Klymus]

while the capitalists restart the economy.

Boy if this aint the truth. Then the bureaucrats will pat them selves on the back, saying "we did it! The house arrests safer at home program worked!"

As a side note - any of you interested on WHY exactly government intervention on a free market economy sucks every single time its experimented with, I would read "Economics in One Lesson by Henry Hazlitt"

It will show you WHY governments trying to control a free market (price gouging laws, Deeming businesses "essential" or "nonessential"), ALWAYS ends up doing harm.

The extent of the harm will come to light in the next few months, but it's not looking good.

Making the country into a glorified wellfare state (Tens of millions on unemployment) is NEVER a good situation.

And while the intentions of a stay at home order sound good (Save lives!), Most bureaucrats never look past the first order consequences (People stay home, less people get sick, Lives saved), and see the second order consequences (People lose jobs permanently as businesses close their doors, suicides and mental illness goes up, domestic crimes increase, looting happens, civil unrest, people go hungry because they have no work and no money)

This is nothing new, because almost every well intentioned government intervention ends up doing more harm than good.

It is extremely hard for human beings to see things that aren't there currently. These are the second order consequences (damaged economy, suicide, mental illness, crime, starvation). But its very easy for us to react to something that we can see in front of us now (the virus spreading), and the house arrest order is a first order consequence.

That's why I and others on this forum are greatly concerned, because if you study the past of government intervention, you'll see that it has almost always had good intentions, but it always backfires. And the government takes no responsibility of the failure. This situation is no different.

And unfortunately, This looks like the new precedent any time a novel virus appears. That's concerning, because 1. Who the F*ck would want to go through this again, and 2. our initial understanding of the corona virus was so vastly wrong, and we did not need to implement this type of draconian lockdown. What happens next time something a little more deadly than the flu pops up? This shit show again?

"we" showed the government that this was okay to do, "we" didn't even argue or question it. "we" begged for them to tell us to stay in our houses and take away our rights, and there are still people begging for more, just as long as the stimulus checks (socialism lite) keep coming.

"The bigger the government, the smaller the citizen" - Dennis Prager

 

[James Klymus]

Illinois judge overturns Pritzker’s stay-at-home order

LOUISVILLE, Ill. (WTVO) — An Illinois court overturned Gov. JB Pritzker’s stay-at-home order, due to a lawsuit by Rep. Darren Bailey, which says the governor exceeded his authority and …

www.mystateline.com

“We are in possibly the most difficult parts of this journey,” Pritzker said. “I know how badly we all want our normal lives back. Believe me, if I could make that happen right now, I would, but this is the part when we have to dig in.” - JB Pritzker

Hmmm.. sounds like this same drivel he was spouting off back in march. We've been digging in since March, How much longer do we have to keep going? The only thing JB is digging into is the feds for a bailout.

 

[James Klymus]

https://www.vcstar.com/story/news/l...-california-update-ventura-county/3015868001/

"The man died as a result of a drug overdose while infected with C0VlD-19, a significant contributing condition, according to county spokeswoman Ashley Bautista. He is the youngest victim to die from the virus yet in the county."

Oh. So now we're attributing cause of death as COVID 19 to people who overdosed.

 

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[G-Man]

View attachment 32599

And now we're onto one of our real problems, whether or not the "experts" were correct about COVID.

The policymakers that have the power to deprive hundreds of millions of people of the ability to go to work pay absolutely no price for being wrong. In fact, there are some institutions in our government that, even if this whole thing turns out to be an overreaction, will find themselves with more funding and power than ever.

War on terror. War on drugs. War on poverty. Quantitative easing. Common Core. Failing to achieve objectives and being consistently wrong appears to be highly lucrative if you work for the State.

 

[hellolin]

And now we're onto one of our real problems, whether or not the "experts" were correct about COVID.

The policymakers that have the power to deprive hundreds of millions of people of the ability to go to work pay absolutely no price for being wrong. In fact, there are some institutions in our government that, even if this whole thing turns out to be an overreaction, will find themselves with more funding and power than ever.

War on terror. War on drugs. War on poverty. Quantitative easing. Common Core. Failing to achieve objectives and being consistently wrong appears to be highly lucrative if you work for the State.

You might want to scratch that 'will' part. It has already happened, you just don't know yet. My phone is getting bombed by recruiters every week.

 

[ChrisV]

This thread, especially around 0:46

 

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[Andreas Thiel]

Oh. So now we're attributing cause of death as COVID 19 to people who overdosed.

Yes, death is just a contributing factor to losing your life because of the virus.

 

[Vigilante]

Florida is set to start a gradual reopening today with people coming unglued realizing they’ve been duped. From a 485,000 worst case projection INCLUDING “social distancing” which drove people out of work and under their beds to a normal seasonal death rate result.

We have millions out of work, hundreds of thousands of lives ruined, and tens of thousands of small businesses destroyed.

And statisticians that go “oh well... you don’t understand the numbers.” They’re the problem, but now fully exposed. The self proclaimed elite thinkers are exposed as the imbeciles. The Emperor truly has no clothes... and no clue.

History books will show this as being one of the greatest travesties in human history with the blame squarely on the shoulders of the “experts.” Kids reading about this in history will be incredulous that people fell for this, but the elites will try it again soon but with far different results.

Terrorists will never again bring down a plane because of the awakening that happened in the days that followed 9/11.

Economic terrorists will never again bring down America using herd mentality when all we needed was herd immunity.

 

[Andreas Thiel]

Florida is set to start a gradual reopening today with people coming unglued realizing they’ve been duped. From a 485,000 worst case projection INCLUDING “social distancing” which drove people out of work and under their beds to a normal seasonal death rate result.

We have millions out of work, hundreds of thousands of lives ruined, and tens of thousands of small businesses destroyed.

And statisticians that go “oh well... you don’t understand the numbers.” They’re the problem, but now fully exposed. The self proclaimed elite thinkers are exposed as the imbeciles. The Emperor truly has no clothes... and no clue.

History books will show this as being one of the greatest travesties in human history with the blame squarely on the shoulders of the “experts.” Kids reading about this in history will be incredulous that people fell for this, but the elites will try it again soon but with far different results.

Terrorists will never again bring down a plane because of the awakening that happened in the days that followed 9/11.

Economic terrorists will never again bring down America using herd mentality when all we needed was herd immunity.

So many ways for mass media to spin this and most people probably won't believe that speeding things up - with more horror per day - would not lead to a worse bottom line. They'll just say that lockdowns prevented things from getting as bad as they got in NYC elsewhere. And people who call BS will be the enemy.

Most people will think: "shutting down was important, opening up was the right decision at the time ... - politicians are awesome - why are we talking about this?".

 

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[ChrisV]

And statisticians that go “oh well... you don’t understand the numbers.” They’re the problem, but now fully exposed.

Great... now what are your thoughts on quantum physics? How about genomics? Do you think CRISPR will be ready by 2025?

My uncle has a bloodclot in his right frontal lobe, I was wondering if you had any thoughts on which area it would be best to go in for the surgery.

 

[ChrisV]

 

[Vigilante]

Great... now what are your thoughts on quantum physics? How about genomics? Do you think CRISPR will be ready by 2025?

My uncle has a bloodclot in his right frontal lobe, I was wondering if you had any thoughts on which area it would be best to go in for the surgery.

View: https://youtu.be/zDAmPIq29ro

 

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[ChrisV]

View: https://youtu.be/zDAmPIq29ro

No it's the other way around. You're supposed to show a video of those know-nothing egghead epidemiologists telling everyone to worry but the calm rational citizens being too smart to get suckered by all that stuff and just going about their business.

 

[Vigilante]

No it's the other way around. You're supposed to show a video of those know-nothing egghead epidemiologists telling everyone to worry but the calm rational citizens being too smart to get suckered by all that stuff and just going about their business.

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/op...-and-its-probably-safe-to-reopen-some-schools

 

[VTK]

Florida is set to start a gradual reopening today with people coming unglued realizing they’ve been duped. From a 485,000 worst case projection INCLUDING “social distancing” which drove people out of work and under their beds to a normal seasonal death rate result.

We have millions out of work, hundreds of thousands of lives ruined, and tens of thousands of small businesses destroyed.

And statisticians that go “oh well... you don’t understand the numbers.” They’re the problem, but now fully exposed. The self proclaimed elite thinkers are exposed as the imbeciles. The Emperor truly has no clothes... and no clue.

History books will show this as being one of the greatest travesties in human history with the blame squarely on the shoulders of the “experts.” Kids reading about this in history will be incredulous that people fell for this, but the elites will try it again soon but with far different results.

Terrorists will never again bring down a plane because of the awakening that happened in the days that followed 9/11.

Economic terrorists will never again bring down America using herd mentality when all we needed was herd immunity.

Mate, the travesty is having to choose between having hundreds of thousands of people die horrible and lonely deaths or destroying the economy. It's a false dichotomy. Our countries failed to properly analyse the risks or invest the resources required into preventing them. That's why we're in this situation.

Imagine a pair of broke friends arguing over whether if they'd saved £1 a week instead of playing the lottery they'd be millionaires right now. It's dumb and if you've got a stake in that argument you've already lost.

 

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[ChrisV]

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/op...-and-its-probably-safe-to-reopen-some-schools

No no no, epidemiologists are idiots. We can't listen to them.

Or wait... actually it's fine. I forgot, expert opinion is only valid when it conforms to our preexisting views. We should actively seek out experts who agree with us, and the rest are idiots. Same goes for Data. Never cite data unless it conforms to your prior beliefs. Data that doesn't confirm our preexisting views is obviously flawed.

 

[Vigilante]

Mate, the travesty is having to choose between having hundreds of thousands of people die horrible and lonely deaths or destroying the economy. It's a false dichotomy. Our countries failed to properly analyse the risks or invest the resources required into preventing them. That's why we're in this situation.

Imagine a pair of broke friends arguing over whether if they'd saved £1 a week instead of playing the lottery they'd be millionaires right now. It's dumb and if you've got a stake in that argument you've already lost.

In Florida where I live, there's about the same seasonal virus death toll as always. There is no indication that social distancing was anything but a theory that will likely never have measurable results. However, the human toll that has played out in terms of suicides, accelerated child abuse, domestic abuse, and financial ruin is measurable and catastrophic. Infinately more lives have been destroyed by the failed hypothesis of confinement and business closure than were affected by C0VlD-19. Seasonal viruses (including CoronaVirus strains) have been around for decades. This was the first time we were ever duped into draconian measures to try and hide from a virus that you can't hide from.

The quarantines in the United States were intended to extend the infection period to mitigate overwhelming the United States health system for the reasons you cited (inadequate preparation and inadequate foresight by analysis). Quarantine was never intended to reduce the death toll, just spread it out. History may reveal it was exactly the wrong thing to do, and may be responsible for a second wave as people who never got it now will let their defenses down and go out and get it. Maybe we should have let it run it's course like we always have, and maybe the results would have been the same (seemingly, if you look at Sweden) without the human toll and death caused by the sequester itself.

There are only a few things I know for certain :
1. The models were all wrong (without exception, and up to 99% and every single one of them overblown)
2. The people are done listening to bullshit new hypothetical projections from "experts" that know nothing
3. Data, not theories, are all we are considering moving forward
4. Millions of people have been destroyed to produce a result that historically is the same as we tend to see seasonally

This is going to take a whole lot of study by people OTHER than the people responsible for this catastrophic error. You are correct that it involves correcting their missed analysis on demand and risk, missed analysis on capacity and resources, missed analysis on virus transmission, and many other variables we need people from the outside to come into to rebuild a model better capable of handling next year's version of this year's crisis.

You don't ask the people who lost the war to plan your new defense strategy. You bring in smarter, less confirmation-biased thinkers who can dissect, analyse failure of thought process, look at risk and resource moving forward, and put some new plans in place. We're sure the hell not going to look at the brain trust that got us here as to how to get us out of the mess of their creation.