The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

[Andreas Thiel]

But I agree... there's something really strange about this compulsive need to believe that people are just constantly lying to them and everyone is "paid off" and trying to steal their kidneys. It is a characteristic that's relatively unique to American, because my European friends don't really do that.

It certainly is on the rise in Germany ... and I think rightly so. Love your disclaimer, but I'd go further.

With the media manipulation, geopolitical moves, white guilt campaigns, plutocratic politics and economic meddling, nudging etc., posts like the one by DiamondDog just have to trigger a "sweet summer child" alert. Qanon crap might be obvious, but I think it has become almost impossible to evaluate how reliable or not information is.

I know my worldview has changed a lot and it is eye-opening how many of the "unthinkable things nobody could expect" that have happened recently have been predicted by people who have their finger on the pulse of geopolitics and the economy. Especially the censorship and misrepresentation of data trend worries me.

 

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[Xeon]

I'll just leave this here...

View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=RzFP4yzZzII

The vaccines are already in a warehouse in the US waiting to be shipped 9 months from now to avoid suspicion.

 

[Timmy C]

The vaccines are already in a warehouse in the US waiting to be shipped 9 months from now to avoid suspicion.

I donno....

There is no solid proof.

I think something is up with Bill Gates and he has a profit motive for sure.

But i don't buy that he is going to microchip people with these vaccines, the outcry would be insane i can't see populations agreeing to this.

Although if he had it his way, i believe he would do it no question.

 

[Xeon]

The data is in — stop the panic and end the total isolation

Americans are now desperate for sensible policymakers who have the courage to ignore the panic and rely on facts.

thehill.com

 

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[David Harrison]

I agree people do love "sensationalism", and a lot of "conspiracy theories fall under this banner.
Although I'd also like to point out if folk "really" wanted to discover the realities of geopolitics, all they have to do is research the leading organisations that implement policy etc.
It isn't rocket science.

And the information isn't "hidden", it's in plain view. But most people are committed to false narrative spread throughout the "NET".

I only say this because I've been following the said "policies" for over two decades now. And the implication of them is fascinating to watch.
As someone mentioned earlier on. It's maybe a mistake to guess the whole picture using only one piece of the jigsaw.

I hope this helps.

PS: Time is a great tool to put things into perspective.

 

[c_morris]

But I've come to believe it's more than just a simpleton's desire for a simple cause-and-effect universe. Part of the more uniquely American part is rooted in exceptionalism -- the idea that individuals know better than what the best of trained experts can tell them. So we get anti-vaxxers. We get people who claim GMOs are biological voodoo. We get people who play armchair epidemiologists, dismissing public health recommendations in favor of cult ideas of what's best for them and their families because they know better.

Our world of experts haven't done themselves a great service either by occasionally showing their biases. But we are all human and capable of mistakes not to mention finding data to fit our beliefs. Sadly the natural imperfection of humans causes some to believe that they individually know better than the collective experts who can self-censure the bad ideas from the good ones.

This, like pretty much everything related to human thought, has a scale that reaches far in both directions. You seem to be alluding to those that believe everything is a conspiracy (David Icke), or are you suggesting that we should blindly follow the experts, just because they are, well, experts?

I, personally, am in the camp of "trust no one and question everything." That doesn't mean I'm a flat earther or believe that the moon landing was a hoax. But, it seems perfectly reasonable to me to question anything/anyone, including experts, especially when there is money and politics involved.

 

[analogue]

it seems perfectly reasonable to me to question anything/anyone, including experts, especially when there is money and politics involved.

This is exactly how science works! (Sure, you also need a way to test and verify things.)

 

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[David Harrison]

This provides a sort of false mental comfort that the world isn't random and that if you don't do A, B. or C, you can avoid ever falling victim yourself.

Although I agree with some of your thoughts, the overall premise is quite random in its declaration.
And to paint a simpleton as someone unable to think can be quite the paradox, especially for those academics who "know" the workings of the universe.

I'd much rather live in a world with varied, shades, ideologies and beliefs, than one with sanctioned sterilised automatic functions guided by those who "know" best.

Time, the great leveller...

PS:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=398&v=QDVVo14A_fo&feature=emb_logo

 

[ljean]

So based on statistics, if there are x cases in my county today, what is the probability a healthy person contracts the virus with life-altering effects (death, stroke, amputation, etc)?

 

[Thoelt53]

So based on statistics, if there are x cases in my county today, what is the probability a healthy person contracts the virus with life-altering effects (death, stroke, amputation, etc)?

Near zero.

 

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[ljean]

Near zero.

Please show your work.

 

[Thoelt53]

Please show your work.

Coronavirus Age, Sex, Demographics (COVID-19) - Worldometer

Age, sex, demographic characteristics such as pre-existing conditions, of coronavirus cases of patients infected with C0VlD-19 and deaths, as observed in studies on the virus outbreak originating from Wuhan, China

www.worldometers.info

Healthy persons aged 18-44 account for .003% to .009% of deaths in NYC.

 

[Kak]

Well folks.

The covid death toll in my county is 7.

The known suicides due to financial hardship in my county is 17 and counting.

The lockdowns are the biggest scam in the history of the world. They are an attack on a free way of life the likes of which we have never experienced.

 

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[Matt Sun]

UN says hunger might kill 300.000 people A DAY

Coronavirus crisis could double number of people suffering acute hunger - UN

Report from UN World Food Programme and others warns 265m people are facing acute risk

www.theguardian.com

So in this thread people said that the lockdowns are effective and saving lifes.
Is there a clinical study with two exactly similar citys, one locked and one not? We might need a third city with a placebo lockdown.
Jokes aside, people that advocate science still said this miracle lockdowns saved lifes, with no proof, just because the ministry of scientific truth (WHO) says so.
We will never know if covid without lockdown would have killed more people than now increased poverty, depression, hunger and violence will.

 

[Jake]

Well folks.

The covid death toll in my county is 7.

The known suicides due to financial hardship in my county is 17 and counting.

The lockdowns are the biggest scam in the history of the world. They are an attack on a free way of life the likes of which we have never experienced.

15 new cases, no deaths today.. Suicides are steadily increasing. At breaking point, Thailand’s poor are killing themselves | Coconuts Bangkok

Not sure what we're trying to accomplish by destroying everyones livelihood. It's like chopping off your legs to try to prevent a .01% of dying. Doesn't make sense.

 

[James Klymus]

Well folks.

The covid death toll in my county is 7.

The known suicides due to financial hardship in my county is 17 and counting.

The lockdowns are the biggest scam in the history of the world. They are an attack on a free way of life the likes of which we have never experienced.

Only another month here in illinois!

That is unless they extend it again!

Illinois is also now begging the government for a 40 billion+ bailout. Instead of getting people back to work to create tax revenue, they're keeping them out of work and begging their dad (feds) to give them some money to hold them over.

I genuinely hope they don't get the money, Illinois has had a corrupt government for long enough. It's not smart to keep bailing out your coke head son.

 

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[GIlman]

We will never know if covid without lockdown would have killed more people than now increased poverty, depression, hunger and violence will.

This is the exact reason I’ve been extremely skeptical of climate change policies. They call for extreme measures, costing trillions, disrupting industries, and requiring regulations that stifle innovation.

No one knows how changes to global temperature will impact anything, they are all guesses based on ... you guessed it - models. Just in glacier national park this last year they had to change the signs at the glaciers. The reason, the signs said that by the year 2020 all the glaciers would be melted - unfortunately it’s 2020 and they are very much still there.

I trust applied science far more than observational science. In applied science you develop a theory, then develop a test to try and prove or disprove the theory. The more tests the theory holds up to the more reliable it is considered. In observational science, your just a passive observer, anything you theorize cannot actually be tested using controlled experiments. There are huge margins of error in these studies, often they are completely wrong.

As it relates to CV, this is the big problem. Everything as far as infection spread, deaths, comorbidities, etc are observational. So projecting forward is just guessing, time will tell if that guess is right or wrong. So far they have been more wrong than right. Just as an example, remember how the CDC revised the death toll dramatically, and suddenly we were told we would have around 60,000 deaths by August (this was the big announcement 2 or do weeks ago), it was splashed all over the news. Well the “official” death toll is 55,000 and its only late April.

The point being in highly random, complex, rapidly changing systems like climate and CV, there are simply too many known unknown and unknown unknown variables. Any guidance or outlooks should be viewed with a healthy dose of skepticism because of this. I don’t think it’s that people are generally trying to intentionally mislead, more do that their degree of confidence in their predictions are unfounded.

 

[James Klymus]

As it relates to CV, this is the big problem. Everything as far as infection spread, deaths, comorbidities, etc are observational. So projecting forward is just guessing, time will tell if that guess is right or wrong. So far they have been more wrong than right. Just as an example, remember how the CDC revised the death toll dramatically, and suddenly we were told we would have around 60,000 deaths by August (this was the big announcement 2 or do weeks ago), it was splashed all over the news. Well the “official” death toll is 55,000 and its only late April.

I agree with you, but to play devils advocate, the current death toll seems to be on pace with the projections:

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

Explore forecasts of C0VlD-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.

covid19.healthdata.org

We'll see if the daily count starts dropping off here in may, Like the model predicts

 

[SkyLake]

Well folks.

The covid death toll in my county is 7.

The known suicides due to financial hardship in my county is 17 and counting.

The lockdowns are the biggest scam in the history of the world. They are an attack on a free way of life the likes of which we have never experienced.

Well speak for your country only then.

In the US it's 55k deaths in two months, and that is only the hospital ones, lots more have died at home/nursing homes. And that is with a lock down going on. Actual death toll is suspected to be even higher.

For comparison, in the US, the flu killed 35k people in 2018/2019, in a period of one entire year.


No one likes this lock down, we all want to be 'free' again. But calling it 'biggest scam in the history of the world' is pure ignorance.

 

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[Kak]

Well speak for your country only then.

In the US it's 55k deaths in two months, and that is only the hospital ones, lots more have died at home/nursing homes. And that is with a lock down going on. Actual death toll is suspected to be even higher.

For comparison, in the US, the flu killed 35k people in 2018/2019, in a period of one entire year.


No one likes this lock down, we all want to be 'free' again. But calling it 'biggest scam in the history of the world' is pure ignorance.

IT. IS. A. SCAM.

 

[traction2]

Well speak for your country only then.

In the US it's 55k deaths in two months, and that is only the hospital ones, lots more have died at home/nursing homes. And that is with a lock down going on. Actual death toll is suspected to be even higher.

For comparison, in the US, the flu killed 35k people in 2018/2019, in a period of one entire year.


No one likes this lock down, we all want to be 'free' again. But calling it 'biggest scam in the history of the world' is pure ignorance.

55k is highly inaccurate due to the reporting of cause. No matter what if they test positive Corona is documented as cause of death.

 

[SkyLake]

55k is highly inaccurate due to the reporting of cause. No matter what if they test positive Corona is documented as cause of death.

Yeah, same with the flu reporting.

 

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[Kak]

For probably the 5th time in this thread. The only people that lockdowns save are people that met all of the following conditions:

1. Needed a ventilator
2. Wouldn’t have died anyway (90% do, so one of the 10%)
3. Couldn’t get access to a ventilator because of overrun hospitals (none in the USA)

Those are the conditions that need to be met before you can say the lockdowns have saved lives.

The notion that lockdowns save lives based on some death ticker count is nonsense.

SCAM

 

[GIlman]

For probably the 5th time in this thread. The only people that lockdowns save are people that met all of the following conditions:

1. Needed a ventilator
2. Wouldn’t have died anyway (70% do, so one of the 30%)
3. Couldn’t get access to a ventilator because of overrun hospitals (none in the USA)

Those are the conditions that need to be met before you can say the lockdowns have saved lives.

The notion that lockdowns save lives based on some death ticker count is nonsense.

SCAM

Agree on most of your points. Although I’m not going to call this a scam, I think it’s more just likely confirmation bias failing to adequately consider new data and evidence. Although I see this more on the side of effectiveness of policy. This is a serious illness in a significant number infected, death and disability is much higher than typical flu.

Interestingly, or terribly, it appears that the death rate is likely even higher than you cited for ventilated patients. A recent and sizable study out of NY showed 88% that went on a ventilator died.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...0VlD-19-patients-on-ventilators-died-in-study

This goes along with what my colleague friend in Boston told me. She said everyone going on the ventilator was going out in body bags. If 9 out 10 patients put on ventilators are dying, it would sure seem this way.

This is super unusual, the majority of people usually put on all ventilators for any cause usually survive. Part of the problem with COVID is that people go on ventilators because they are that ill and losing the battle to COVID to begin with. The ventilator is supportive only.

We have no proven treatment, so it’s still up to that persons own immune system to figure out a way to beat the infection, the infection clearly has the upper hand at that point and the person is the huge underdog in the fight for survival. We are just helping them hang in there hoping for a miracle.

In all reality, this has likely contributed to the US being able to keep up with needed ventilators. 9/10 people that go on the ventilator die, freeing up the ventilator for the next patient inline.

Also, it means that the utility of a ventilator in the first place is minimal from a treatment standpoint. If 88% people put on ventilators die anyways, it means if you put NO patients on ventilators you would only increase the death rate by 12%. Or if you run out of ventilators you at a maximum increase death rate by 12%, in all reality much lower because many/most people would get a ventilator, it would only be a fraction of total needing a ventilator that did not receive one.

If we look back at Italy, then their ventilator shortage likely contributed far less to their death totals than previously believed. Since they were prioritizing the ventilators to people more likely to survive in the first place, including younger healthier patients, then it’s not impossible that the percent who would have died anyway that didn’t get a ventilator was nearing 100%.

So the lockdown in the long run only has the potential to save 12% of the lives that would have been lost anyway. Whether the curve is a spike or flattened and drug out for 2 years, the total # infected is expected to be about this same from the projections.

The only thing that would change this dynamic is some effective drug or vaccine. Unless we suddenly change the model about flattening the curve to somehow permanently preventing infection in people to begin with.

 

[Primeperiwinkle]

This thread is so divisive I want to put little badges by ppl’s names to keep track of what team they’re on. Or maybe change your signature..

We need team names!!

I mean, obvi the main players post constantly so we all know how they feel but the little guys don’t. Hmmm

Which team am I on? #teamfreedomfighters or #teambubblebabies

Wait. Those aren’t very nice. Lemme try again.

#teamwalkinghosts or #teamhostages

Dammit I suck at this..

#teamevolution or #teamvaccine

While this post is mildly humorous I would like to note that the words we use to describe what’s happening wield power. The way we paint our own decisions, the way we criticize entire countries, the way we use words to describe people who disagree with us..matters.

Just FYI, the #stayathome team seem intent upon making us afraid by peppering their posts with words like “bloody”. The #goforthnowandwork team just seems really angry.

 

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[Andreas Thiel]

For probably the 5th time in this thread. The only people that lockdowns save are people that met all of the following conditions:

1. Needed a ventilator
2. Wouldn’t have died anyway (70% do, so one of the 30%)
3. Couldn’t get access to a ventilator because of overrun hospitals (none in the USA)

Those are the conditions that need to be met before you can say the lockdowns have saved lives.

The notion that lockdowns save lives based on some death ticker count is nonsense.

SCAM

Sorry, but the amount of pages here makes it hard to read back into the past. Would be great if there was a more digestable amount of arguments collected somewhere.

What is your take on the reported excess death rate again? 36,000 Missing Deaths: Tracking the True Toll of the Coronavirus Crisis

The restrictions that the contermeasures have on what should be business as usual? Or some number stunts?

 

[Kak]

Although I see this more on the side of effectiveness of policy. This is a serious illness in a significant number infected, death and disability is much higher than typical flu.

As do I. I never called it a nothingburger. I never said the virus isn't serious. However... The reaction, has been and continues to be a scam. You might call it confirmation bias, because they want to save face. I call it sunk cost, and a scam. Six to one, half-dozen to another.

The virus is obviously serious, but the notion that the lockdowns have saved millions of lives, like the commies would have us believe, is totally incorrect. The facts don't support that. Not even close.

My crusade has been against policy this entire time. Not the virus itself.

Also, it means that the utility of a ventilator in the first place is minimal from a treatment standpoint. If 88% people put on ventilators die anyways, it means if you put NO patients on ventilators you would only increase the death rate by 12%. Or if you run out of ventilators you at a maximum increase death rate by 12%, in all reality much lower because many/most people would get a ventilator, it would only be a fraction of total needing a ventilator that did not receive one.

This is interesting to me. What it says to me is only a fraction more people would be alive today if no one with covid had even ANY gotten medical treatment at all! Further proving my point.

The only thing that would change this dynamic is some effective drug or vaccine. Unless we suddenly change the model about flattening the curve to somehow permanently preventing infection in people to begin with.

EXACTLY. So what this tells me is this: All of these people that keep preaching one more month are really preaching 24 more months. The problem? Suicide rates, civil unrest and starvation will kill more by then anyway.

 

[MTEE1985]

My crusade has been against policy this entire time. Not the virus itself.

Wait a minute...You don’t think killing tax revenue and then bailing out states who have allowed trillions in unfunded pension liabilities to accrue is effective in fighting a disease?

 

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[Kak]

Wait a minute...You don’t think killing tax revenue and then bailing out states who have allowed trillions in unfunded pension liabilities to accrue is effective in fighting a disease?

About as effective as intentionally giving everyone cancer to fight it.

 

[ChrisV]

A post from March 18th, around a month and a half ago.

Success Against COVID-19 Will Look Like We Overreacted | RealClearPolitics

Success Against C0VlD-19 Will Look Like We Overreacted | RealClearPolitics

www.realclearpolitics.com

"The paradox of the novel coronavirus response is that [...] if they work, will not have seemed necessary. Success will look like we overreacted. This is a unique emergency, but the basics still apply."

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1238269994061959168

View: https://twitter.com/jameshamblin/status/1238269994061959168?lang=en


We've been saying this the entire time. Everything is going exactly like we said they would.