The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

[ChrisV]

I'm just gonna say this because I've largely been ignoring this thread.

There is no one blanket policy that works across a nation as diverse as the United States.

Rural areas should have their lockdowns lifted. It highly debatable if they ever needed those measures in the first place.

Cities absolutely, positively needed lockdown measures. If you disagree, you're just wrong. You're either seriously misinformed or malicious beyond comprehension.

Stop with these blanket statements as if the entire United States should have one overarching policy. "Quarantines are good," "Quarantines are bad."

 

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[hellolin]

I'm just gonna say this because I've largely been ignoring this thread.

There is no one blanket policy that works across a nation as diverse as the United States.

Rural areas should have their lockdowns lifted. It highly debatable if they ever needed those measures in the first place.

Cities absolutely, positively needed lockdown measures. If you disagree, you're just wrong. You're either seriously misinformed or malicious beyond comprehension.

Stop with these blanket statements as if the entire United States should have one overarching policy. "Quarantines are good," "Quarantines are bad."

I see this has already been used in 2 ways by 2 different camps, using the same methods to expand their agenda, none of them are what this forum's agenda encourages:

One is well posted above by many posters here: some people are using the virus as an excuse to expand government outreaches on all facets of our lives. This point has been hammered here as expected since most people here leans center-right, I don't really need to repeat their points here.

Another one is people using this pandemic to advocating a more protectionist economy around the world, which is actually exactly what countries did right in the midst of the great depression. Will this result in another world war because that was the result of what happened last time? I do not know, I can't just run around yelling scared because this is what happened the last time, the past does not predict the future, but good luck getting that sold to the public at large. Let us remember at least half of the fast lanes here's business/service depend on a healthy flow of global supply chain, mostly goods from China and SE Asia. With the closing of the global economies to a certain degree, I am willing to bet lots of people's dreams are going to be impacted here. But judged by business/political leaders around the world, the global supply chain is going to be changed quite a bit regardless, so people here who are running/selling their products who depend on cheap imports aboard might want to prepare for adjustment now.

 

[Bearcorp]

I'm just gonna say this because I've largely been ignoring this thread.

There is no one blanket policy that works across a nation as diverse as the United States.

Rural areas should have their lockdowns lifted. It highly debatable if they ever needed those measures in the first place.

Cities absolutely, positively needed lockdown measures. If you disagree, you're just wrong. You're either seriously misinformed or malicious beyond comprehension.

Stop with these blanket statements as if the entire United States should have one overarching policy. "Quarantines are good," "Quarantines are bad."

Agree but don't forget the rest of us, this applies worldwide. My state in Oz has 437 confirmed cases, 376 recovered cases. 61 active cases in a population of 1.677 million.

 

[ChrisV]

Agree but don't forget the rest of us, this applies worldwide. My state in Oz has 437 confirmed cases, 376 recovered cases. 61 active cases in a population of 1.677 million.

Yes, sorry... I was responding mostly to the US debate, but I think you can generalize the city/rural paradigm to most other countries as well.

 

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[WillHurtDontCare]

This comment is out of left field, but anyone who tells you that it is OK to gain weight during the coronavirus is an a**hole who should be ignored.

 

[NovaAria]

Let us remember at least half of the fast lanes here's business/service depend on a healthy flow of global supply chain, mostly goods from China and SE Asia.

That one was running on fumes, anyway.
Much of what is happening right now in the economy was well expected. The virus was simply the catalyst. The recession and the price wars were expected. And what's interesting with China and SE Asia too, is that people were expecting this as well.
China stopped being a third world country a long time ago, yet people still expected worker wages and manufacturing costs at third world levels. Cost of living and quality of life has been rising steadily there and a day will come when the cost of manufacturing will stop being as competitive.

 

[James Klymus]

As Gov. J.B. Pritzker says COVID-19 won’t peak in Illinois until mid-May, Mayor Lori Lightfoot predicts statewide stay-at-home order could extend into June

Gov. J.B. Pritzker is now saying the new coronavirus pandemic may not peak in Illinois until mid-May, while Mayor Lori Lightfoot on Tuesday predicted the state’s stay-at-home order could exte…

www.chicagotribune.com

"Previous projections had put the virus’s peak in mid- to late April. But Pritzker told national news outlets this week that the date has been pushed back in part because people have been adhering to his stay-at-home order."

Soooo..... Because we stayed at home, we now have to stay at home longer? What if the "peak" gets pushed until September? Then on to next year?

"Later, during his daily briefing in Chicago, Pritzker declined to identify the models used to come up with the mid-May projection of a C0VlD-19 peak."

Why aren't we allowed to know the basis upon which you are making your policy? Does this make you look trustworthy or like you have something to hide?

"Pritzker said “you have to actually get to the peak and start down the other side of it before you know you’ve hit a peak.”

Profound JB, really. Thank you for clearing that up. Can you help me out with 2+2 next?

“We will be making some changes to the stay-at-home order as it is, but it is true that it is working,” Pritzker said."

If it's working, why are you saying we have to keep doing it for another 2 months?

"The statewide totals stand at 33,059 known cases, affecting 96 of 102 counties, and 1,468 deaths."

Every death is tragic, but damn. All of this because of a few thousand people died.

I didn't expect much from Illinois because let's face it, Illinois is a corrupt state, but these fools who are our "leaders" are going to get a big wake up call from people who are tired of bureaucrats.

They are not doing what's in the public's best interest, but doing what will give them the best chance of getting re elected.

It will be real interesting to see what happens if they announce this ridiculous stay at home order to continue on for 2 more months. I'm afraid things will most likely become violent.

People have had enough and want to get back to work. The numbers aren't adding up to what we were initially told, and it's time we start to get back to our lives.

 

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[ChrisV]

"The statewide totals stand at 33,059 known cases, affecting 96 of 102 counties, and 1,468 deaths."

Every death is tragic, but damn. All of this because of a few thousand people died.

Dude, again I've been trying to stay out of this thread because this shit is so off-the-rails, but I have to comment on this because I've seen it so many damn times my head is gonna explode. And I'm not pointing out anyone in particular, but I've seen this more times than I can count and I'm going to have an aneurysm.

We did not impose a quarantine because of the _00,000 people who will die. We imposed the quarantines because of the 10s of millions that would have died if we did nothing.



Again: We did not impose a quarantine because of the _00,000 people who will die. We imposed the quarantines because of the 10s of millions that would have died if we did nothing.

Please. Read that over and over and over.

Jeez Louise.

It's like if an asteroid were heading for the earth and NASA and Bruce Willis and Billy Bob Thornton were somehow able to deflect it and it didn't hit earth and then people were like "Omg we spent 7 Billion dollars and no one even died! We did all that for nothing!?"

Like seriously guys? This forum is one of the most intelligent demographics on the internet and I'm truthfully baffled that I have to explain this. This is a "nothingburger" because our actions largely mitigated the effects.

I don't want to argue. I don't care. But the US did not shut down the country because of 60,000 deaths. We did it because the amount of deaths would have been like 22x higher had we not.

 

[Trevor Kuntz]

Dude, again I've been trying to stay out of this thread because this shit is so off-the-rails, but I have to comment on this because I've seen it so many damn times my head is gonna explode. And I'm not pointing out anyone in particular, but I've seen this more times than I can count and I'm going to have an aneurysm.

We did not impose a quarantine because of the _00,000 people who will die. We imposed the quarantines because of the 10s of millions that would have died if we did nothing.

View attachment 32382

Again: We did not impose a quarantine because of the _00,000 people who will die. We imposed the quarantines because of the 10s of millions that would have died if we did nothing.

Please. Read that over and over and over.

Jeez Louise.

It's like if an asteroid were heading for the earth and NASA and Bruce Willis and Billy Bob Thornton were somehow able to deflect it and it didn't hit earth and then people were like "Omg we spent 7 Billion dollars and no one even died! We did all that for nothing!?"

Like seriously guys? This forum is one of the most intelligent demographics on the internet and I'm truthfully baffled that I have to explain this. This is a "nothingburger" because our actions largely mitigated the effects.

Worldwide, millions is plausible/probable. In the US, probably hundreds of thousands is plausible. I'm not sure that 2.2M US deaths is plausible anymore, as I think our social and hygiene behaviors have changed drastically even without lockdowns.

That said, this scenario comes up frequently. I vividly remember Y2K as a child. My parents had stockpiled a lot of supplies just in case. I was 7 years old and super excited for the new millennium; I had zero understanding of the complexity of the Y2K Problem.

Once it passed, there was some damage to some systems (unbeknownst to me), but the catastrophe that had been feared was averted. I thought "Wow, what a nothingburger!" because I was 7 and expected an apocalypse. Only many years later did I understand how much resources and planning went into ensuring that the Y2K Problem damage would be averted. Perhaps that is the case here, but we won't know the full picture for many years and its unlikely that there will be a consensus on the virus or how effective the response was until long after the politicization of the event is over.

 

[hellolin]

Dude, again I've been trying to stay out of this thread because this shit is so off-the-rails, but I have to comment on this because I've seen it so many damn times my head is gonna explode. And I'm not pointing out anyone in particular, but I've seen this more times than I can count and I'm going to have an aneurysm.

We did not impose a quarantine because of the _00,000 people who will die. We imposed the quarantines because of the 10s of millions that would have died if we did nothing.

View attachment 32382

Again: We did not impose a quarantine because of the _00,000 people who will die. We imposed the quarantines because of the 10s of millions that would have died if we did nothing.

Please. Read that over and over and over.

Jeez Louise.

It's like if an asteroid were heading for the earth and NASA and Bruce Willis and Billy Bob Thornton were somehow able to deflect it and it didn't hit earth and then people were like "Omg we spent 7 Billion dollars and no one even died! We did all that for nothing!?"

Like seriously guys? This forum is one of the most intelligent demographics on the internet and I'm truthfully baffled that I have to explain this. This is a "nothingburger" because our actions largely mitigated the effects.

I don't want to argue. I don't care. But the US did not shut down the country because of 60,000 deaths. We did it because the amount of deaths would have been like 22x higher had we not.

For people who do not like what is going on right now. There is likely a second coming of the virus as well, China is opening up their economy as we speaking right now, and their are "virus migrants" coming in and out of the country re-inflecting people left and right, creating new hotspots. I think this might be one of the reasons the Trump administration stopped immigration temporarily.

 

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[ChrisV]

I'm not sure that 2.2M US death is plausible anymore, as I think our social and hygiene behaviors have changed drastically even without lockdowns.

You're absolutely right. It's not plausible anymore*.

We did a great job.

let's have a round of applause for everyone.



*Well unless we royally F*ck up and totally let our guard down.

 

[ravenspear]

Rural areas should have their lockdowns lifted. It highly debatable if they ever needed those measures in the first place.

Cities absolutely, positively needed lockdown measures. If you disagree, you're just wrong. You're either seriously misinformed or malicious beyond comprehension.

I have to disagree with this to a certain extent. This is not just a problem for cities or urban areas. I've seen a lot of opinions from people in rural areas thinking this does not or could not affect them out there in the sticks. One thing GA does have is some good statisticians working in government, and on their C0VlD-19 page you can see an example of what I mean.

https://dph.georgia.gov/C0VlD-19-daily-status-report

There are two types of maps on the page. A lot of the media are only showing maps like the first one, which focus on total counted cases.


I'm actually in the WORST county in GA, for that, shaded dark blue. Maybe I should leave and go out to the sticks! But not really. Because look at the cases per capita map underneath that.


On a per capita basis southwest GA has fared far worse than metro Atlanta, despite having far fewer people. It's gotten so bad down there that cluster has made national news. Nothing around Atlanta metro has so far. There have been similar rural clusters in other states, I know Kentucky had one.

 

[James Klymus]

Dude, again I've been trying to stay out of this thread because this shit is so off-the-rails, but I have to comment on this because I've seen it so many damn times my head is gonna explode. And I'm not pointing out anyone in particular, but I've seen this more times than I can count and I'm going to have an aneurysm.

We did not impose a quarantine because of the _00,000 people who will die. We imposed the quarantines because of the 10s of millions that would have died if we did nothing.

View attachment 32382

Again: We did not impose a quarantine because of the _00,000 people who will die. We imposed the quarantines because of the 10s of millions that would have died if we did nothing.

Please. Read that over and over and over.

Jeez Louise.

It's like if an asteroid were heading for the earth and NASA and Bruce Willis and Billy Bob Thornton were somehow able to deflect it and it didn't hit earth and then people were like "Omg we spent 7 Billion dollars and no one even died! We did all that for nothing!?"

Like seriously guys? This forum is one of the most intelligent demographics on the internet and I'm truthfully baffled that I have to explain this. This is a "nothingburger" because our actions largely mitigated the effects.

I don't want to argue. I don't care. But the US did not shut down the country because of 60,000 deaths. We did it because the amount of deaths would have been like 22x higher had we not.

You're seriously citing the (at this point ancient) article from imperial college that estimated 2 million people would die in America and 500,000 in the UK? That estimate was retracted weeks ago, and based on what we know now, the CFR is likely 0.1-0.2, or around the same, maybe slightly higher, than the seasonal flu (Gasp, I compared it to the seasonal flu!)

And with 290,000 - 650,000 people dying annually from the seasonal flu (which nobody bats an eye, or begs the government to shut us down), What makes you think we would have a DRAMATICALLY higher amount of deaths (Tens of millions), If the CFR is likely in the same range?

"It's like if an asteroid were heading for the earth and NASA and Bruce Willis and Billy Bob Thornton were somehow able to deflect it and it didn't hit earth and then people were like "Omg we spent 7 Billion dollars and no one even died! We did all that for nothing!?"

Did bruce willis and billy bob infringe on our rights? Did they turn this virus, that is certainly killing people, into a political weapon used to increase power over citizens? Is this silly snippet you wrote a straw man? I think so.

Like seriously guys? This forum is one of the most intelligent demographics on the internet and I'm truthfully baffled that I have to explain this. This is a "nothingburger" because our actions largely mitigated the effects.

I appreciate the compliment, I happen to be under the same impression that the demographic of this forum is of above average intelligence. I also happen to think you're a smart guy, so it baffles me that you still seem to be citing data from a month ago, when panic was running rampant over a hugely overestimated death toll from this virus, based on bad data.

Our actions did not cause this virus to be less deadly than initially predicted, the virus was already like that, WE were going off of sketchy data. And it caused us to dispatch 2 hospital ships on each coast, and fill mccormick place in Chicago with makeshift hospital rooms, all of these sit vacant as we speak.

This isn't because we "flattened the curve", It's because we were WRONG initially. These models had social distancing calculated into them already (besides the one you refer to). You can finger point at China and the WHO (rightfully so IMO), But it doesn't change the fact that instead of 10's of millions dead, we have 10's of millions who are sitting at home going stir crazy, unable to pay their bills, BECAUSE we panicked.

I don't think this situation is "nothing" but I know for a fact it's not as serious as we thought it was, even as recently as a few weeks ago. And what I am saying is we need to look at the most recent data, not what Imperial College said a month ago.

We also need to look at this for what it is, not through an emotional lens. People will die. People always have died, and always will die. People used to have 10 kids because they knew only 2 or 3 would make it. As a part of becoming a technologically advanced society, we've also become one that's lost perspective.

Pathogens have been trying to kill us since the beginning of our existence, this one will try too. It will kill more, and infect many, but we will get past it. With the haste of the heroes on the front lines, and those working on a vaccine, we will get past this.

It's the political consequences, economic and emotional damage from people being scared shitless from the news that what worries me more than this virus, because those will outlive this pandemic.

 

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[ChrisV]

Did bruce willis and billy bob infringe on our rights?

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DksSPZTZES0

 

[hellolin]

We also need to look at this for what it is, not through an emotional lens. People will die. People always have died, and always will die. People used to have 10 kids because they knew only 2 or 3 would make it. As a part of becoming a technologically advanced society, we've also become one that's lost perspective.

Pathogens have been trying to kill us since the beginning of our existence, this one will try too. It will kill more, and infect many, but we will get past it. With the haste of the heroes on the front lines, and those working on a vaccine, we will get past this.

It's the political consequences, economic and emotional damage from people being scared shitless from the news that what worries me more than this virus, because those will outlive this pandemic.

Go tell that to the masses, I don't even think Trump can get away from this one. Politics, or mass movements, are always conducted from a point of emotion, not facts. This is true in politics or big company trying to maneuver the market. I believe this is why small startups can win big boys in a fist fight, because by definition, big organizations, be it a government body, or a huge international corporation, are going to make decisions that are conservative by nature, such as shutting everything down in hopes of bring the death toll down, while small players are always more willing to take the risk and use smart maneuvers to navigate risk and ripe rewards.

However, you are betting on the average american individual to be more brave and logic than the political body, which are two of the same. So at the end of the day, everyone decided to take the safe route. We are already here, one of the things we can prove right now, is that the state of GA is opening up slowly, while also becoming a virus hotspot. While living in Cali, I have no doubt we won't open at all until the dust has settled, even through more than 50% of the people have already lost their jobs in the city of LA (Not even depression was this bad).

Oh, I also want to address what it means by the word 'intelligent' is different in the left and right minds in the US. For those on the right, intelligent when it comes down to, are always means some form of 'thinking for yourselves as an individual', while on the left, intelligent means follow whatever protocol, whether scientifically or business, that are derived from a big governing body or standard procedure. Watching over the debate about this virus has clearly shown me that there is a divide over the meaning of words on both side of the isle.

 

[ChrisV]

Wah I have to sit at home on my couch for 2 weeks!

it's not fair!

This just in, the government can do way worse shit to you. Like, you know.... the draft. Our grandparents were literally snatched out of their homes and sent to go stomp the beaches of Normandy in one of the bloodiest battles in human history and Millenials whine that they had in order to help their country they had to sit at home for two weeks (which by the way members of the Greatest Generation ALSO had to freakin do)

If You Think Quarantine Life Is Weird Today, Try Living It in 1918

From atomizer crazes to stranded actor troupes to school by phone, daily life during the flu pandemic was a trip.

slate.com

and I bet they still didn't wine 10% as much.. despite not having Netflix and Xbox and literally the entire world at their fingertips

Seriously, this generation are the biggest wet noodles.

My rights! My rights! I have rights! You're in my safe space! Don't call me that gender!

Our grandparents were asked to topple the third reich, and grown men can't even sit in their cushy technology-infested wonderlands for more than two weeks without kicking the door like kids do when they're mad.

Christ almighty. Millenials are such whiny little milksobs.

It's like Jordan Peterson. All these kids care about is their endless buffet of rights

View: https://youtu.be/Nyw4rTywyY0?t=4582

 

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[James Klymus]

Go tell that to the masses, I don't even think Trump can get away from this one. Politics, or mass movements, are always conducted from a point of emotion, not facts.

Of course I know this. What I said is literally the worst sales pitch ever. It’s too real. I agree with you.

People want “make money from a laptop on the beach” not “hustle from your studio apartment in the crappy part of town (aka reality)”

People want: government, protect me now! Here’s all my freedoms, Just protect me!

Not: there’s a chance you could die, but there’s also a chance you could die in your car on the way to work too. You’re also guaranteed to die at some point in the future anyways, no one can protect you.

 

[James Klymus]

Wah I have to sit at home on my couch for 2 weeks!

it's not fair!

This just in, the government can do way worse shit to you. Like, you know.... the draft. Our grandparents were literally snatched out of their homes and sent to go stomp the beaches of Normandy in one of the bloodiest battles in human history and Millenials whine that they had in order to help their country they had to sit at home for two weeks (which by the way members of the Greatest Generation ALSO had to freakin do)

If You Think Quarantine Life Is Weird Today, Try Living It in 1918

From atomizer crazes to stranded actor troupes to school by phone, daily life during the flu pandemic was a trip.

slate.com

and I bet they still didn't wine 10% as much.. despite not having Netflix and Xbox and literally the entire world at their fingertips

Seriously, this generation are the biggest wet noodles.

My rights! My rights! I have rights! You're in my safe space! Don't call me that gender!

Our grandparents were asked to topple the third reich, and grown men can't even sit in their cushy technology-infested wonderlands for more than two weeks without kicking the door like kids do when they're mad.

Christ almighty. Millenials are such whiny little milksobs.

It's like Jordan Peterson. All these kids care about is their endless buffet of rights

View: https://youtu.be/Nyw4rTywyY0?t=4582

How much does the government pay you to be their cheer leader?

 

[hellolin]

Of course I know this. What I said is literally the worst sales pitch ever. It’s too real. I agree with you.

People want “make money from a laptop on the beach” not “hustle from your studio apartment in the crappy part of town (aka reality)”

People want: government, protect me now! Here’s all my freedoms, Just protect me!

Not: there’s a chance you could die, but there’s also a chance you could die in your car on the way to work too. You’re also guaranteed to die at some point in the future anyways, no one can protect you.

The point of what can kill me is control. Cars can kill me, but I do have a certain degree of control to mitigate the risks while driving, and I expect others on the road to so the same thing as well.

Can you say the same thing about the virus? I think this is why even Trump says in order for the economy to be completely re-opened, widely available testing needs to be possible first. Because that would be the first counter measure to make sure we have a certain degree of control while facing this risk. Taking risk for the sake of risk is dumb, if you read any of Trump's books you will realize one of the most things he absolutely hated with his gut is UNCONTROLLABLE RISK.

 

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[James Klymus]

The point of what can kill me is control. Cars can kill me, but I do have a certain degree of control to mitigate the risks while driving, and I expect others on the road to so the same thing as well.

Can you say the same thing about the virus? I think this is why even Trump says in order for the economy to be completely re-opened, widely available testing needs to be possible first. Because that would be the first counter measure to make sure we have a certain degree of control while facing this risk. Taking risk for the sack of risk is dumb, if you read any of Trump's books you will realize one of the most things he absolutely hated with his gut is UNCONTROLLABLE RISK.

Are you really able to mitigate risk while driving? A drunk person coming at you in the on coming lane is completely uncontrollable.

Unless you stay home and never leave, you are out of control. And even then you could have an act of god, fire, home invasion, or a number of things happen that are completely out of your control.

Likewise, going out into a world filled with pathogens is a risk, one that’s worth taking 99.9% of the time. Just like driving a car, going to the gym, crossing the road, swimming in the ocean, flying.

I think the precautions we took initially were justified based on the data we had (2 million deaths).

That projection has since changed (2 mil to 60k), rendering our reaction to this current situation an overreaction.

 

[ChrisV]

You're seriously citing the (at this point ancient) article from imperial college that estimated 2 million people would die in America and 500,000 in the UK? That estimate was retracted weeks ago, and based on what we know now, the CFR is likely 0.1-0.2, or around the same, maybe slightly higher, than the seasonal flu (Gasp, I compared it to the seasonal flu!)

Dude, I'm not trying to be a dick, but you genuinely have no idea what you're talking about. I've literally spent the better part of a decade studying statistical models and you are way out of your depth on this topic. As new data comes in, you change the models.

Absolutely nothing was retracted and you're misunderstanding what you read about Neil Ferguson of the Imperial College.

The social distancing changed the rate of transmission, so we update the models... then a layperson comes along comparing the 'if we did nothing' (2m) models to the new 'with mitigation strategies' estimates (60k) and they put on their tinfoil hat thinking they just uncovered some secret government plot to impose martial law and help Bill Gates enslave the human race, in reality they just don't understand how modeling works.

This is exactly why I think Democracy is such a bad idea.

The article you're referring to is this one: Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection and you are completely misunderstanding what is being said in the article. Despite the fact that Daily Wire is hardcore right-wing propaganda (a newspaper run by Ben Shapiro? Seriously?) and heavily criticized for it's factuality it literally says it right in the article after they corrected it:

"Correction: The original title of this article incorrectly suggested that Neil Ferguson stated his initial model was wrong. The article has been revised to make clear that he provided a downgraded projection given the new data and current mitigation steps. This article has also been updated to include Ferguson’s clarifying statement posted on Twitter on Thursday."

And had you actually read the correction to the article, you'd know what was going on. Trust me, I'm up to date on all the models. Imperial College, IMHE. All of them.

That projection has since changed (2 mil to 60k), rendering our reaction to this current situation an overreaction.

No no NO... you are completely misinterpreting this data. But to be fair, the Daily Wire intentionally worded that article so people would think that. So it's not 100% your fault.

The Daily Wire - Bias and Credibility

RIGHT BIAS These media sources are moderate to strongly biased toward conservative causes through story selection and/or political affiliation. They may

mediabiasfactcheck.com

 

[hellolin]

Are you really able to mitigate risk while driving? A drunk person coming at you in the on coming lane is completely uncontrollable.

Unless you stay home and never leave, you are out of control. And even then you could have an act of god, fire, home invasion, or a number of things happen that are completely out of your control.

Likewise, going out into a world filled with pathogens is a risk, one that’s worth taking 99.9% of the time. Just like driving a car, going to the gym, crossing the road, swimming in the ocean, flying.

I think the precautions we took initially were justified based on the data we had (2 million deaths).

That projection has since changed (2 mil to 60k), rendering our reaction to this current situation an overreaction.

Are you really able to mitigate risk while driving? A drunk person coming at you in the on coming lane is completely uncontrollable.

Not really, this is why I buy cars with collision Warning systems, and not to drive myself out there on Friday nights, for this very reason. Those are the personal actions that I can take to mitigate risks, and I know for a fact many others do the same. I absolutely do have a degree of control over this.

Unless you stay home and never leave, you are out of control.

Not really, the entire point of modern science and industry is to mitigate and control risk. We can never eliminate risk, but we can control and reduce, or transfer the risks. Matter of fact, one of those things that deems a certain service or business is valuable or not, is the degree of security the said product can bring. The US military is very expensive, but why does it gets 4% of our GDP as funding every year? Because it brings security and safety in an uncontrollable world, bringing us a peace of mind, this demands value, hence why we pay for it even if it is very expensive.

swimming in the ocean, flying. Yeah I do not do any of those BEFORE I know I had some method of mitigating the risks related to both, such as taking a swimming lesson, and flying lesson. Having a proper testing for the virus is like taking a flying lesson before you jump into the plane...except we are trying to do this on the entire population, yeah.....

Taking a risk for the sake of taking a risk is absolutely stupid. We should always find ways to mitigate as much risk as we can before we jump in. Some of the biggest risk takers are some of the biggest haters of risk, I got this from reading the bios of people like Trump, it actually was one of the things that I admired him for, before he became a politician anyways.

 

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[ChickenHawk]

This virus is a no-win, which is why we're seeing hostility and frustration on both sides of the argument.

If we ease up on the social distancing, more people will surely die. Others will experience long-lasting health problems, like permanent lung-damage, fertility issues, and loss of limbs. Still others will be financially ruined due to our craptastic medical industry which bankrupts a shocking number of people.

If we don't ease up on the social distancing, other people will become financially ruined. Some might die because they've delayed life-saving surgeries. Others might die because they've been murdered by their stir-crazy spouses. Still others might die because they commit suicide because their businesses have been destroyed beyond repair.

The truth is, it sucks either way. And our own views are strongly influenced by how serious we view this new disease. If you think, for example, that this is just a slightly worse version of the flu, social-distancing mandates seem ridiculous and overblown. If you think, in contrast, that this is a far more serious medical condition, social-distancing mandates seem prudent, at least until we have a better idea of what we're dealing with.

It doesn't help that our media and government officials have a long, sordid history of lying to us. No doubt they're lying to us now. But who specifically is lying? Those who suggest, "It's just the flu, bro."? Or those who suggest, "We're all gonna die"? Probably more are lying than are telling the truth, and probably for reasons all over the spectrum.

Regardless of what is true, people will suffer because of this. I still believe that most people on this forum are caring individuals who want the best for their fellow man. If we had better, concrete data (such as on the true fatality rate or the true number of people who have already had this, for example), we'd see a lot more agreement on what should be done.

Until then, we're in for a rough ride, even on this particular thread. Mitigating losses is never fun, especially when you're dealing with life and death, literally.

 

[Timmy C]

The social distancing worked, so we change the models... then a layperson comes along comparing the 'if we did nothing' (2m) models to the new estimated with mitigation strategies (60k) and thinks they just uncovered some secret government plot to impose martial law and help Bill Gates enslave the human race.

I donno Bill gates seems sketchy to me....

Bill Gates and Intellectual Ventures Funds Microchip Implant Vaccine Technology

You really can not make this up The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation has donated more than $21 million towards developing a vaccine technology that uses a tattoo-like mechanism which injects invisible nanoparticles under the skin that is now being tested in a vaccine against the virus that...

lifeboat.com

Science | AAAS

stm.sciencemag.org

Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation has donated more than $21 million towards developing a vaccine technology that uses a tattoo-like mechanism which injects invisible nanoparticles under the skin that is now being tested in a vaccine against the virus that causes C0VlD-19.

Which sheep want to line up for this first?
This guy can't even fix viruses on windows.

The other week a report got leaked that they started testing a c19 virus on African people and 7 children died. There was a video that I watched that someone shared on insta (it was taken down) When I went to search it on google this came up.



i'm not saying the report about the children dying is true but it's being censored straight away, raises eyebrows.

Also who's fact checking fact check?

He has a lot to gain. He funds both sides. He funds the WHO, who is supposed to be there for us (the people) and also funds the big phama who make the medicine/vaccines. Their foundation funds so many companies they have a massive amount of influence on what happens within those companies. And at the end of the day this guy is a computer geek and should not be advising health officials or scientists or anything. He is not a doctor, he is not a scientist. He is not qualified. BUT he has money and money talks unfortunately

Look into his history at Microsoft to, this guy did some shady shit that the government stepped in because he illegally created a monopoly on the market, was a good time for him to rebrand himself as a great guy though after that, smart play by him.

 

[Silverfox148]

Interesting, hadn't checked the thread in about a week and the debate endlessly continues.

I am on the side that this whole thing is overblown, something just doesn't add up with the whole lockdown and government response. This seems to have come just at the right time when we were reaching a top economically and I was expecting to see weakening economically, awfully nice timing.

The whole lockdown debate is becoming quickly moot, I noticed my stress levels peaked last week. I was under a lot of pressure from corporate work as they expect us to deliver even more because of "challenging" economic environment(aka run faster). I also have 3 kids in the house, two school age and they were placing a lot of pressure on me to meet their needs, I have become their primary teacher and they are becoming stir crazy. My household is pretty disciplined but I noticed it was becoming counter productive, there was no balance and it was simply all discipline and the results where diminishing. I had to drop my physical exercise routine this week as I hurt my back lifting weights last week due to a lack of focus on the deadlift. In short I was extremely stressed out, this week I've let it all go and am in relaxed/philosophical mode.

The whole lockdown will come to end in the month of May unless people actually see bodies in the street. I believe it's going to cause a lot of stress going forward as companies crack down on their workers to work harder/faster, etc. I've already decided I'm not going to ride that ship and would rather exit if it comes down to that and focus on my own projects/kids/goals even if I have to live in a trailer/rv and be poor.

 

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[ChrisV]

By the way @James Klymus do you have a citation for a 0.1 Case Fatality Rate? I'd be very interested in seeing that, considering the ECDC puts the crude CFR at ~7%. So considering that disparity, I'm sure you can understand why I'd be interested in seeing a citation on that number you provided.

 

[Andreas Thiel]

By the way @James Klymus do you have a citation for a 0.1 Case Fatality Rate? I'd be very interested in seeing that, considering the ECDC puts the crude CFR at ~7%. So considering that disparity, I'm sure you can understand why I'd be interested in seeing a citation on that number you provided.

Have not checked the links out ... but the following thread probably has the studies that people refer to:

OFF-TOPIC - BOMBSHELL: ANTIBODY TESTS CONFIRM 224k to 440k INFECTED IN LA COUNTY ALONE

BREAKING!!!! According to LA Public Health and USC antibody testing, the number of actual cases (though asymptotic or minor) is MUCH MUCH HIGHER than originally thought. I posted the report below...

www.thefastlaneforum.com

 

[MTF]

Back to actual news and data over another debate that unfortunately won't solve anything...

Swedish health agency says virus has peaked in Stockholm, no easing of restrictions yet

Around one-third of Stockholm's 1 million people will have had the novel coronavirus by the start of May and the disease may have already passed its peak in the capital, Sweden's public health agency said on Tuesday.

www.reuters.com

STOCKHOLM (Reuters) - Around one-third of Stockholm’s 1 million people will have had the novel coronavirus by the start of May and the disease may have already passed its peak in the capital, Sweden’s public health agency said on Tuesday.

It's based on a model, though:

The public health agency said its modelling suggested the rate of new infections in the city had peaked on April 15, although a decline was not yet evident from its data.

“Already a bit more than a week ago, the peak was reached, at least according to this model, and we can expect fewer cases each day,” Anders Wallensten, deputy state epidemiologist at the agency, told reporters at a daily news briefing.

Modelling using data from random testing and cases reported to hospitals showed that around one-third of Stockholm’s population will have contracted the coronavirus by May 1.

At the moment there are about 6,200 cases in Stockholm. Yesterday there were 60 new confirmed cases in the city meaning that by May 1, Stockholm (assuming that the peak was indeed reached) shouldn't have more than perhaps another 600 cases, or 6,800 in total. This means that—again, according to the model, which is not perfect data—the real number of cases might be up to 49x higher. This also reduces the mortality rate in the city (not the entire country) to around 0.5-0.6%.

It needs to be emphasized, though, that Sweden's epidemiologist Anders Tegnell explained that they failed to protect the most vulnerable enough as Sweden's higher death rate was mostly caused by outbreaks in care homes for older people.

Also, curiously, according to this article, many countries in Europe and in the United States are mostly recording C0VlD-19 deaths from hospitals, and don't include deaths from nursing homes or other long-term care facilities. In Sweden, however, deaths from the coronavirus at nursing homes are counted toward the official tally of how many have died from the disease.

 

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[Andreas Thiel]

...

Also, curiously, according to this article, many countries in Europe and in the United States are mostly recording C0VlD-19 deaths from hospitals, and don't include deaths from nursing homes or other long-term care facilities. In Sweden, however, deaths from the coronavirus at nursing homes are counted toward the official tally of how many have died from the disease.

Would love to see more examples in the article. Still, I think it probably is correct. And even when you look at hospitals in isolation there might be huge differences.
Italy checks for the virus for (almost?) all the deaths, while Germany only counts deaths among people who are known active cases. Italy was pushing for standardized ways to measure key metrics. Wonder what happened to that push ...

 

[Longinus]

He has a lot to gain.

I'm not a Gates fan, but maybe he just wants to make the world a better place? You really think he's up to even more money or power?

Pretty tired of the massive increase of conspiracy BS lately.