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The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

Vigilante

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Agree.

I didn't set out to grill @GIlman or find out where he has been wrong in the past or go on a fact checking mission. For the most part we agreed on how this is pretty messed up right now. The policy response has been downright frightening. He has come around to view these shutdowns with as critical of an eye as most of us now... Save @ChrisV who I very much respect... But disagrees with us.

@GIlman and I can get back to agreeing on 99% of what makes the Fastlane possible for all who seek it. And, there are silver linings in this reset that in a post Covid America people will be able to harness for personal and collective gain.
 
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Vigilante

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I am excited for what America has in front of her. And, we're now in a better position than EVER to help the rest of the world.
 

Kak

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It's certainly a factor.

What other assumptions can we operate under? The vaccine is over a year out. The treatment is already available and being tested.

So yes.. If you isolated everyone and the disease died out without reaching any more people... YES then that relationship changes... But you can't operate under that assumption because with jailing people in their homes indefinitely with no interpersonal interaction at all, we will starve to death before COVID would.

We are basing the assumption "less deaths because of these lock downs" on a temporary condition. The root of the problem isn't solved. The curve might be flatter, but the same amount of people eventually get this and the same ratio of people eventually die.
 
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Rivoli

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Our forum experts projected 1,500,000 to 3,000,000 deaths in the USA. There's been 11,000 - half of which are in NY. There will be LESS than my 20,000 guess before America gets back to work. Things are starting to reopen. Know how many cases there are in my area? Less than 5. People. Not dead, just confirmed cases.

There have been some great takeaways from this scare, and many things that individuals, communities, states and our country need to address in the months to come.

But it's time to stop with the bullshit about the millions dead. It's time for ya'all to realize that the abrasive Ravioli was for the most part correct, and it's time for America to get back to work.

Kak you went very gentle on the good doctor. It was a productive discussion, and out of respect you congenially let him off the hook.

Keep washing your hands (seriously) and keep social distancing. Elderly and immunocomprimised need to take adequate precatutions. The stimulus should still happen to get the economy jump started, and the doors are starting to methodically and pragmatically start to open again.

There need to be a million investigations of what happened here, aimed at corrective measures and proactive future protections. This could have been much, much worse. We're a week away from the curve breaking positively, and area by area I expect the next thirty days that things start to loosen. Not sure we will ever go back to the way it was, but people are much smarter and much more capable to protect themselves.

The pandemic is shortly going to be controllable, the tests and cures are within sight, and the liberals are sad that society is about to reset. Their ability to make hay of the crisis is quickly coming to a close.

N O T H I N G B U R G E R !!!

I’m am proud of myself for sticking to my guns and following my gut dispite massive pushback...a trait all entrepreneurs need to do.

Trump was smart and tried to play it off as “just a flu” but people got to butthurt about it, and shut themselves in the face. The same people that demanded action (quarantine) are the same people who are going to be unemployed begging for rent forbearance in like 3 weeks.
 
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MJ DeMarco

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Seems like ya'll are thinking this is the beginning of the end of the crisis.

I'm not there yet.

Looks like we are moving in the right direction, but I'm not sold that we're out of the woods quite yet.

The hydroxy / zinc thing looks to be the big gamechanger if you accept the anecdotal evidence.

The financial system is getting messy, between the stimulus, the money printing, and the FED interventions. Lest we remember, there's two contagions at work, the health contagion, and the economic one.
 

Rivoli

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Seems like ya'll are thinking this is the beginning of the end of the crisis.

I'm not there yet.

Looks like we are moving in the right direction, but I'm not sold that we're out of the woods quite yet.

The hydroxy / zinc thing looks to be the big gamechanger if you accept the anecdotal evidence.
Not sure if you caught it but Cuomo said at the presser that he’s being having “good results” from the trials they are doing.
 

ChrisV

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I have no idea what the media is or isn't saying. I watch the news for all of 5 minutes and then get a headache.

The initial projections of X Million were "if no action was taken." No one ever claimed that X Million will die no matter what.

We will never see that number becase some action is going to be taken. Whether it be social distancing by personal choice or shutdowns.

When we make these projections it's a lot like a mathematical formula.

Take a simply Equation x * y * z / q = p

You change any one of those numbers, the output changes significantly. We have to change all these numbers based on new data that comes in.

How fast a virus is spreading is the R0 rate. If people change their behavior and that R0 rate becomes less, we not have to factor that into the equation. So as new data comes in, we change the models based on those new numbers.

The initial projections were based on the typical R0 rate of C0VlD-19. The rate of infections has leveled off a lot.

31996

Which is part of the reason the initial estimate was 2.2 million, now it's ~100,000. Even the 100,000 number could change drastically based on what happens.

And R0 is only one single input into these projection models. For example the Case Fatality Rate, in the beginning was 2%. Now with the hospitals at capacity the CFR is over 12%.

This is just to give a sense of how much these models change based on now information.

We almost have this Catch-22. Even if everything we did worked and no-one died, people would be like "Look! We took all that action and no one died! We did all this for nothing!" It's circular reasoning.
 
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Vigilante

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Seems like ya'll are thinking this is the beginning of the end of the crisis.

I'm not there yet.

Looks like we are moving in the right direction, but I'm not sold that we're out of the woods quite yet.

The hydroxy / zinc thing looks to be the big gamechanger if you accept the anecdotal evidence.

The financial system is getting messy, between the stimulus, money printing, and FED interventions. Lest we remember, there's two contagions at work, the health contagion, and the economic one.

One crazy side bar is Kyle told me about that drug 30 days before Trump mentioned it

Must be nice to have lobbyists on your payroll @Kak
 

ChrisV

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What other assumptions can we operate under?
The # of ventilators is one aspect, but the # of people infected is also a factor because that increases the need for ventilators. At the end of the day, we don't want the demand to outweigh the supply.

If we can change either of those numbers (the supply or the demand) the problem can be mitigated somewhat.

That's assuming the ventilators are saving 100% of the people who are put on them (they're not, but that's a different discussion)

He has come around to view these shutdowns with as critical of an eye as most of us now... Save @ChrisV who I very much respect... But disagrees with us.
I don't know if the lockdown measures are the absolute best course of action.

I honestly don't know dick about a lot of things.

So I have to make a choice:

• form an opinion about something I'm not fully educated on or
• trust the experts in those fields

Right now what I see is medical professionals and economists agreeing that lifting the lockdowns would be dangerous. And since I can't realistically go get a degree in both fields, I just have to trust the consensus. I'm a believer in division of labor.. so I just say let the doctors be the doctors, let the epidemiologists be the epidemiologists, and let the economists be the economists.

I can't be an expert on everything. I just have to trust that these people know what they're doing.

Regarding 'slow burn' - there is something to be said about letting people get infected and as I mentioned before the UK floated that idea. But in the same breath, they had to drop it because even that would have overwhelmed their hospital system.

There are a bunch of articles on it. uk herd immunity - Google Search
 
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Kak

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Seems like ya'll are thinking this is the beginning of the end of the crisis.

I'm not there yet.

Looks like we are moving in the right direction, but I'm not sold that we're out of the woods quite yet.

The hydroxy / zinc thing looks to be the big gamechanger if you accept the anecdotal evidence.

The financial system is getting messy, between the stimulus, the money printing, and the FED interventions. Lest we remember, there's two contagions at work, the health contagion, and the economic one.

The end of crisis... Personally no, I don't think so...

The beginning of the end of misguided policies, I am optimistic.

It is never going to be a switch that flips and we can all just go back to normal life. This is going to be a process.
 
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Vigilante

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The end of crisis... Personally no, I don't think so...

The beginning of the end of misguided policies, I am optimistic.

It is never going to be a switch that flips and we can all just go back to normal life. This is going to be a process.

I think like the other strains of CoronaVirus (and flu, and Sars, and others) this will be around a LONG TIME but the mitigation is underway. They had to break the back of the pandemic until they knew what they were dealing with. The breakthroughs are on the immediate horizon. I don't think this will be eradicated, and the net gain for society will be of great benefit for future similar circumstances - beauty from horrific ashes.
 

Kak

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The same people that demanded action (quarantine) are the same people who are going to be unemployed begging for rent forbearance in like 3 weeks.

I can’t bring myself to like a nothingburger post... But this is gold. :rofl:
 

GIlman

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Our forum experts projected 1,500,000 to 3,000,000 deaths in the USA. There's been 11,000 - half of which are in NY. There will be LESS than my 20,000 guess before America gets back to work. Things are starting to reopen. Know how many cases there are in my area? Less than 5. People. Not dead, just confirmed cases.

There have been some great takeaways from this scare, and many things that individuals, communities, states and our country need to address in the months to come.

But it's time to stop with the bullshit about the millions dead. It's time for ya'all to realize that the abrasive Ravioli was for the most part correct, and it's time for America to get back to work.

Kak you went very gentle on the good doctor. It was a productive discussion, and out of respect you congenially let him off the hook.

Keep washing your hands (seriously) and keep social distancing. Elderly and immunocomprimised need to take adequate precatutions. The stimulus should still happen to get the economy jump started, and the doors are starting to methodically and pragmatically start to open again.

There need to be a million investigations of what happened here, aimed at corrective measures and proactive future protections. This could have been much, much worse. We're a week away from the curve breaking positively, and area by area I expect the next thirty days that things start to loosen. Not sure we will ever go back to the way it was, but people are much smarter and much more capable to protect themselves.

The pandemic is shortly going to be controllable, the tests and cures are within sight, and the liberals are sad that society is about to reset. Their ability to make hay of the crisis is quickly coming to a close.

I would say in general @Kak and I agree on most things, but also I want to point out that it’s way way early to be calling the end of this. You know that all the new projections of ~100,000 deaths is based on the assumption that this quarantine lasts well into August? The models still project very high death rates if quarantines are dropped now. Could the models be wrong, yes!!!

But one other thing that has also come to light is that ventilators are not terribly effective treatment. If people require a ventilator, their odds of survival are somewhere 20-50%.

I’m all for getting the economy back on track, and I’m sure we will see how it pans out. This has cost me more $ than the extreme majority of people, so I would love things to return to normal. But we are probably 5 minutes into this basketball game, so I think on any side it’s way early to be assuming the outcome.

@Vigilante glad to see you back in the discussion.
 
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GIlman

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Agree.

I didn't set out to grill @GIlman or find out where he has been wrong in the past or go on a fact checking mission. For the most part we agreed on how this is pretty messed up right now. The policy response has been downright frightening. He has come around to view these shutdowns with as critical of an eye as most of us now... Save @ChrisV who I very much respect... But disagrees with us.

I would say my perspective is the disease is still very scary, the stats still look bad, New York has a significant problem and is likely going to have a long time before they can get back completely to normal.

But there are patterns of higher and lower risk areas we can identify and work on dealing with those in a more case by case basis. This has been a change in my thinking on this subject. So it’s the solution to the problem more than the outlook of the disease itself that has been changing with me over time. As I’ve said before the big question right now is how much subclinical disease is there. Right now anyone who says they know this is lying, the data is very sparse and what little data we have had some problems. This will be the thing that really determines the outcome.

But, I Have and will continue to change my belief and opinions over time. We all can only deal with the best information and experiences we have at any given time. No one is 100% right or 100% wrong all the time, but as time goes on if your rational you’re work to reject some things you had initially accepted and accept some things you had initially rejected.

But I think, and have always thought the government is terrible and uses situations to bad effect. I am very libertarian in nature, I generally want the government out of as much as possible.
 

Vigilante

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View attachment 31999

There's a segment of the population that would prefer lesser money on unemployment vs. marginal increased income derived from working. Those are the incentives that need to go away. Congress literally approved an unemployment package that pays recipients MORE than they were earning during full employment.
 
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MoneyDoc

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In Canada, the people that want the lockdown to stay for as long as possible are the people that have deferred their mortgages for 6 months, credit card payments for 2 months, even though no one has lost their job in their household. At this point, more people are worried about getting as much free money as possible than they are about C0VlD-19. Then these are the same people that are all of a sudden advocating for "lives over economy". It's hilarious.
 

MTF

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In an op-ed that was published in The Washington Post last week, Gates added: “To bring the disease to an end, we’ll need a safe and effective vaccine. If we do everything right, we could have one in less than 18 months—about the fastest a vaccine has ever been developed.

32000

Seems like it might end up being the same thing as with Zika and other viruses (including SARS). Before it's ready, nobody will need it anymore.

Also consider this: The global food supply chain wasn’t designed for this | Sovereign Man (the part in bold is mine)

Then there’s shingles– an infection caused by the varicella-zoster virus– which is brutally painful for older adults.

GlaxoSmithKline produces a vaccine for this virus called Shingrix that took them more than 10 years to develop and test. And the company has stated repeatedly that they are overwhelmed with demand: hundreds of millions of people want the vaccine.

A few months ago, Glaxo announced that they already reached maximum production capacity of the vaccine, and they’ll have to build a new bioreactor facility just to increase production to ~20 million units per year.

That new facility won’t be online until 2024.

Obviously the novel Coronavirus is different. Its biology is different, the circumstances are different.

But there does seem to be a prevailing attitude worldwide that there will be a vaccine ‘within 12-18 months.’

We can certainly hope so. Fingers crossed.

But this “12-18 month” estimate has been repeated so many times by politicians, reporters, etc. that the public now views it as a foregone conclusion.

And there seems to be zero consideration given to the possibility that, maybe just maybe, vaccine development could take a lot longer.

Or perhaps, even if a vaccine is rapidly developed, that it would take at least five years to produce, transport, and administer BILLIONS of vaccines.

Think about it– Glaxo will spend the next four years building a new facility just to be able to produce 10-20 million annual units of its Shingles vaccine.

How many biotech facilities worldwide will be needed to produce billions of coronavirus vaccines?

And even if existing production centers are able to quickly switch from producing other drugs and start producing coronavirus vaccines– what will be the opportunity cost?

If the world manages to be able to produce billions of vaccines, who will be left to produce cancer drugs? Or antibiotics? Or the countless other life-saving drugs that people depend on?
 

WillHurtDontCare

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Vigilante

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I noticed here in Canada that the new's outlet has quietly updated there chart to display new cases a day vs the "Cumulative" cases they were using. When toggle it the difference is quite dramatic as can see which provinces are still getting more new cases a day vs which provinces look like they are on a downward trend. Again non of this will make the headlines until the powers that be deem it worthy.

Of course the question that no one wants to talk about is what happens when the cases go to zero.

If our "old normal" reacted and avoided millions of death's world wide, why would we need a "new normal". Will the governments have enough fear instilled to bring in mandated personal tracking of it's citizens like they are doing in China.

An example of how ridiculous these numbers are being reported is a Premier announces over 1200 total cases now in the province. When look at the break down 443 cases are infected and 805 are recovered :|

With this reporting they will report a new high of 1300 total cases with 1 new infected case and 1299 recovered cases.

32001
32003
Here's the link can see the stark differences in new cases vs the misleading Cumulative cases across all of Canada.
https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/tracking-every-case-of-C0VlD-19-in-canada-1.4852102
 

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ChrisV

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I also should mention my conflict of interest. I've mentioned this before but if people start doing more things from home, I think that the implications will be historic.


My position on the lockdown is somewhat biased because I think it's going to have enormous long-term benefits.

Personally my life has never been easier. My doctor calls me, My groceries are delivered right to me, I had a mechanic come right to my house. Churches are doing teleconferences.

I dunno... I don't mind the quarantine at all. But then again I've worked from home for years.
 
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pmaloneus

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I also should mention my conflict of interest. I've mentioned this before but if people start doing more things from home, I think that the implications will be historic.


My position on the lockdown is somewhat biased because I think it's going to have enormous long-term benefits.

Personally my life has never been easier. My doctor calls me, My groceries are delivered right to me, I had a mechanic come right to my house. Churches are doing teleconferences.

I dunno... I don't mind the quarantine at all. But then again I've worked from home for years.

Agreed with essentially all of what you said, but I also question what impact all this non-interaction will have on the fabric of society and connectedness, the bonds we form. Part of the reason I think the political climate is where it's at (among other things) is because of lack of connection to others.
 

GPM

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@Vigilante we are not out of the woods yet, stop being so rosey! Up here the government keeps getting bolder and bolder with their power grab. Alberta just passed some new laws which essentially gives them unlimited power if they deem it to be in the peoples good.

While the virus may still turn scary, to me what is more frightening is the extra power these government types are grabbing. Think the world changed after 911? That will be but a pleasant dream after this.

I just read that they are pushing to close the AB BC border. They are also either already doing it, or are wanting to cancel all backcountry permits. You got that right, people are no longer going to be able to legally go out into the woods by themselves... Isn't that social distancing to the extreme?
 

GIlman

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So 29% of listeners to the podcast with @Kak are from Nigeria, no prior listeners from Nigeria. What’s that about @Kak . Lol

@MJ DeMarco any idea how many FLF members are from Nigeria
 
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My position on the lockdown is somewhat biased because I think it's going to have enormous long-term benefits.
Exactly what I have been thinking.
Yes, the economy in its current state is hurting bad. But it always finds a way. New needs will rise and old ones will become obsolete. What pretty much everyone agrees on, right now, is that there was a before-Covid world, and there will be a post-Covid world, and the economy will change and adapt accordingly.

Just an anecdote, but I am in the electronic entertainment business (Think video games, streaming,..). I was also, just 6 months ago, eyeing a new venture. I was planning on opening my own bar in a location that had a lot of need, and no real servicing.
Well, you can guess where that bar idea went, right now. As for my other work? It's booming like no tomorrow.
I don't know when I will be going through with the bar idea, but I am seeing a lot of new opportunities now in the entertainment world. If the Social distancing "Attitude" lasts after this whole ordeal is done, I would be looking at really different numbers and projections for both ventures.
 

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You all seem to be patting yourselves on the back, saying we've got this thing under control. But remember, this is with K-12 schools closed, colleges sending students home, no major sporting events, bans on social gatherings in most states, churches closed, movie theaters and malls closed, etc. Won't we be back to square one as things open back up, particularly whenever schools resume?
 

ChrisV

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You all seem to be patting yourselves on the back, saying we've got this thing under control. But remember, this is with K-12 schools closed, colleges sending students home, no major sporting events, bans on social gatherings in most states, churches closed, movie theaters and malls closed, etc. Won't we be back to square one as things open back up, particularly whenever schools resume?
I dont know where anyone is getting this idea that we're done. We're maybe in the second inning.
 
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MJ DeMarco

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So 29% of listeners to the podcast with @Kak are from Nigeria, no prior listeners from Nigeria. What’s that about @Kak . Lol

@MJ DeMarco any idea how many FLF members are from Nigeria

Not sure, but I know TMF is a huge hit in Nigeria and can be found in your neighborhood Lagos bookstore. :)
 

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