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The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

Andy Black

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Jon L

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Andy Black

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Somehow, it struck me as funny that you're posting numbers, and the very first thing your signature says is 'never worry about numbers.' :)

But yeah ... those numbers are scary. And we're just getting started. I'm hopeful that with all the shut downs, the trend will be improving in the next few weeks.
These are worrying numbers indeed. Each one of them is a life and a family.

Most people don't understand exponential, that the few days wasted at the start are the same few days with *massive* increase later on.

I'm worried for the US in particular.

31724
 

Jon L

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These are worrying numbers indeed. Each one of them is a life and a family.

Most people don't understand exponential, that the few days wasted at the start are the same few days with *massive* increase later on.

I'm worried for the US in particular.

View attachment 31724
yeah. Its pretty bad. What's interesting is that here in the Seattle area, things are not blowing up like they are in NYC. We were first in the nation, I think (or pretty close to it), as far as cases of the virus. Really soon after things started growing around here, Microsoft and Amazon, both huge employers locally, sent all their employees home. Others followed.

Certain areas of the US will be pretty drastically affected. Others won't be.
 
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ChrisV

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I have a rant. I’m sorry but what the CDC did with the masks is downright criminal - or should be.

They went around telling everyone “surgical masks aren’t effective at all” which is complete and utter bullshit; they just didn’t trust Americans to not horde masks (although considering what people did with Toilet Paper, that probably is a valid concern.)

Point is: don’t lie to people.

I’m not a huge Fox (or CNN fan,) but Tucker Carlson had a great rant on this exact subject:


A surgical masks probably offers 10-20% more protection than if you did nothing. if worn properly and you make sure there’s a good seal and no air escaping I’d guesstimate that number goes up to ~40 or 50%.

Furthermore the masks stop people from touching their faces, which is considered the weak point for the virus to enter your body. You don’t even realize how much you touch your face. This video illustrates how much we touch our face even when we’re trying not to.

The CDC legitimately made people feel like wearing a mask was pure superstition. Like wearing a mask was just as effective as carrying a rabbits foot.

CDC is like “Surgical masks are ineffective, don’t walk under ladders, don’t open an umbrella indoors... and make sure to not break any mirrors.”

The CDC: “surgical masks aren’t effective. please leave all these masks for the doctors. we don’t want to put the healthcare workers risk, so PLEASE leave all these completely ineffective, useless masks for them so they don’t get sick!”

Yes, the healthcare workers DO need them more than us, but don’t f—-ing lie to us to get your way. This is the reason people don’t trust the government and you see so many batshit insane conspiracy theories.

Oh and even better is “No we’re not ordering masks from China. they’re not as good as the ones produced in America.” So we have no masks rather than ones that might be 10% less effective. “ We’re not ordering those crappy masks, so you can walk around with 0% protection rather than the 88% efficacy of those crappy INFERIOR chinese masks.”

Here’s a great one too: “the masks are only effective at stopping people who are infected at spreading it“ ... well isn’t that the entire f—-ing problem??? There needs to be a law passed that you’re not allowed in public without something covering your face - whether it be a mask or a scarf. Grocery shopping, anything. Studies show that 80% of people who caught it, caught it from someone who was displaying NO symptoms.

People China are ALL wearing masks. Perhaps that’s partly responsible for their successful containment?

View attachment 31703

View attachment 31702

China:

View attachment 31704

Japan:

View attachment 31705

South Korea:

View attachment 31706

Perhaps when you have a pandemic who’s spread is 80% due to asymptomatic transmission (no visible symptoms) maybe doing everything you can to make sure those who DO have it don’t spread it is a good idea? Even if it doesn’t protect the wearer (i believe it does) from a population standpoint, it would be very helpful. I’d really like to see a law that prohibits people from being in public without some type of covering (whether it be a mask or a scarf or washable mask) to be enacted. If we had that we might even be able to slightly loosen some of the quarantine.

Anyway /rant
Holy shit... just found this:

31726


@GIlman
 

Jon L

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LOL - I was playing around the other day with a battery operated 6 foot radius taser belt design along the lines of the old hoop dresses from days of old. Can you imagine people walking down the street with a bell shaped dome of metal sending a little "keep out" shock to anyone that touches it? Maybe not such a stupid idea after all? :playful:
This could be cool too...

 
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Rivoli

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So how ****ed are we when The quarantine lifts and it just spreads again
 

WillHurtDontCare

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Somehow, it struck me as funny that you're posting numbers, and the very first thing your signature says is 'never worry about numbers.' :)

I've been looking for an excuse to post about Goodhart's Law.

"When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure."

Andy is right - the numbers don't matter - whatever they're describing does.

(I know you get that, I just wanted to post this because it's worth keeping in mind because it is easy to forget.)
 

ChrisV

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Yes exactly. Some input into the models has to change or all we did was pause the inevitable.
well according to @Tortellini this is all a big Air Whopper with Nil Sauce so the outputs will be zero to the nothingth power regardless
 
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Kak

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well according to @Tortellini this is all a big Air Whopper with Nil Sauce so the outputs will be zero to the nothingth power regardless

I wasn't the only one thinking meat stuffed pasta every time I looked at this thread. LMAO!!! :rofl:
 

ChrisV

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guys can you do me a favor... just post this link to your Facebook... Twitter.. whatever. I genuinely believe that with good masks we can beat this thing and perhaps even be able to lift the quarantines earlier

 

Xeon

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BTW...Did Andrew get his 12 books in 12 months out? :(

Just curious, how's the situation in Malaysia now? They lockdown till 15 Apr, but is the situation on the ground getting better?


Between this and having zero masks, I would rather wear these.
 
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ZF Lee

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Just curious, how's the situation in Malaysia now? They lockdown till 15 Apr, but is the situation on the ground getting better?
More recoveries, fewer deaths (than the feared spike in Italy).

Stimulus package announced, but it seems to favour lower-income earners more than SMEs.

Even if the government were to act on peoples feedback and adjust, I’m anticipating a Forrest Gump-shrimp boat scenario, where a typhoon wipes out most of the SME folks on the water, and leaves the Gump boats that kept going (with steady marketing and such).

Markets and essential shops are still opened, as well as some manufacturing businesses (running at 50% capacity only though)

But we had a major market in Penang or Taiping shut down, because the folks just weren’t keeping social distancing, and were mingling around even after shopping.

I have heard some worrying cases of crime in my hometown, especially when you think of laborers or foreigners who are desperate for cash, after their livelihoods got shut down.

But so far these cases are nothing compared to the insanity in other countries:


 

Xeon

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More recoveries, fewer deaths (than the feared spike in Italy).

Stimulus package announced, but it seems to favour lower-income earners more than SMEs.

Even if the government were to act on peoples feedback and adjust, I’m anticipating a Forrest Gump-shrimp boat scenario, where a typhoon wipes out most of the SME folks on the water, and leaves the Gump boats that kept going (with steady marketing and such).

Markets and essential shops are still opened, as well as some manufacturing businesses (running at 50% capacity only though)

But we had a major market in Penang or Taiping shut down, because the folks just weren’t keeping social distancing, and were mingling around even after shopping.

I have heard some worrying cases of crime in my hometown, especially when you think of laborers or foreigners who are desperate for cash, after their livelihoods got shut down.

But so far these cases are nothing compared to the insanity in other countries:



Great to hear that. SG is closely intertwined with MY, so if you guys are F*cked, we're F*cked as well lol
 

Andy Black

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MTF

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Ah no. These are dark days. :(

Without any context these numbers are tragic (and of course every death is). But world is filled with death and suffering every day; we just don't focus on it obsessively unless it's a global crisis and media reports it 24/7 (or much more painfully, until a loved one dies). Again, I need to emphasize it strongly that I'm not downplaying any of the deaths, but trying to offer a different, Stoic-influenced perspective that might help some people process what's going on.

Resignation and gloom won't help us right now. We can help others stay sane during the crisis through keeping calm, humor, hope, asking constructive questions and having constructive discussions (I love @GIlman's contributions in this thread), sharing good news (bad news equals high stress equals disrupted immune system - all the fear mongering of media can make even more people die), and reframing the current situation.

On the same page (worldometers.info) you can learn that while over 43,000 people died from coronavirus roughly from the beginning of this year (probably more given China's lies), there were over 14,707,000 deaths in total (so official coronavirus casualties are 0.29% of that number). Before coronavirus, nobody was depressed knowing that so many people were dying every day. We all just carried on with our lives, knowing full well that people were dying all around us but choosing not to dwell on it (the fact that most of the deaths didn't make any headlines helped).

Out of 14,707,000 deaths this year so far, there are so many sad stories, many of which are never reported just because they happened in poor countries that didn't get a hashtag (it's extremely sad, but that's what it often is - a tragedy in, say, Australia, like the recent bushfires nobody cares about anymore, is known globally while a much more disastrous situation in, say, Central African Republic, isn't even mentioned anywhere).

The uncomfortable reality is that people living in developed countries rarely, if ever, consider how much death and suffering happens all around the world. Until it happens to us, we don't care. Which is understandable - we wouldn't be able to live if we constantly pondered on this sad reality.

All the following data comes from worldometers.info:
  • In the last FIVE DAYS, more people died of HUNGER than coronavirus. The worst thing about it is that while people are dying of hunger, there are millions of people around the world carrying dozens or hundreds of excess pounds. None of those deaths make headlines because they rarely happen in rich countries.
  • FIVE TIMES more people died this year from water-related diseases than coronavirus. Another completely preventable death limited mostly to poor countries while rich countries are wasting obscene amounts of water.
  • almost THREE TIMES more people died this year from seasonal flu than coronavirus. But it's just the normal flu so who cares, right? It doesn't make headlines, either, yet it's just as tragic.
  • almost TWO TIMES more mothers died during birth this year than people died from coronavirus. Again, most common in poor countries, virtually none of those tragic deaths are reported.
  • over SIX TIMES more people committed suicide this year than people died from coronavirus. Another extremely sad and often preventable death that rarely gets reported.
Again, to emphasize, I'm obviously not attacking you, Andy (I hope it's clear I have TONS of respect for you). Just wanted to put the current situation in context because all I can see everywhere is doom and gloom constantly being heightened by social media, traditional media, and doomsday preppers. We don't need that; it's not constructive. We need to focus on solutions or ways to stay sane and healthy until it's over.

Again, not trying to downplay any deaths and tragedies (I DO KNOW first-hand that it's no consolation at all for a person who lost their loved one - this is only a perspective for those of us who are unscathed), but we wouldn't even notice a 0.3% rise in deaths this year if they happened in, say, Myanmar (how many people know that THREE TIMES more people died in the aftermath of 2008 Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar?).
 

Mattie

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I am reading scattered reports in a local chat group of random looting by single people/small groups (liquor stores, pharmacies, etc.). Minimal police presence right now, and I'm sure they've got other things to deal with, but some unscrupulous people are taking advantage of it.
I believe these were social issues and social problems before COVID19 Virus began. If you're a Human Service Worker or Civil Services you know the systems don't work. Not to mention the social classes all operate on different rules in the game of life.

This Virus is pretty much going to have people questioning their Values, Morals, Ethics, and perhaps change the systems for everyone. While you have the hoarders, the scammers, they're blatantly going to be caught as you see already in social media. Human nature is complex. Fortunately, until the Internet came around people were held back in society be ignorance. Education was limited globally. You didn't have all the social classes with access to education as they are now.

I can tell you in every social class you have those unscrupulous people taking advantage of someone else. There is no barrier in what one will do for power, dominance, and control over others. Hustlers in the hood know how to manipulate emotions, thoughts, feelings, and take advantage of the situation.

A perfect society we shall never see. And then you have those who take of their medical and mental health and those who don't. Belief systems, are only changed when you choose to remove yourself from a certain social group. Which there are tons of social groups, with their agenda, intentions, motivations, and harm others intentionally or not intentionally. This all depends on where you're standing in the world.

You have racism, prejudice, discrimination, and persecution in every culture. The Psychology is a contageon far more then the Virus in some social groups. You allow certain people to influence you and of course they have a cause and effect on whether you succeed or fail. We can push it further to life and death in this scenario.

It really shouldn't surprise us that an event like this which is basically all about the survival mode and survival mechanism would bring out the worst in human nature. Anyone can take the wrong action or right action. It just depends on what your values are, your ethics, your morals, and what you value the most.

For some people they don't even know how to value their own self worth, so of course they're not going to value yours. And even if you believe others value your life, you find out in events like this sometimes they don't value your life at all.

In my case, I understand as a former Nurse Aide and Mental Health Worker, human nature doesn't value anyone that isn't healthy, young, and wealthy. People are forgotten, left behind the scenes in hosptials, private homes, nursing homes, adult foster care homes, and it doesn't matter their social status or how much wealth they have.

I've seen the finest in human nature and fortunately, it is what it is. If you're lucky to have to the right people walk in your life at the right time, have grattitude, be thankful, appreciate for what they do for you. Quit the prejudice, discrimination, anger, rage, bitterness, and how all unfair it is. There are good people in every social class, just like there are people who don't do the right thing in every social class.

In this situation, no one's more special then the other. Even Bill Gates stated this himself. Stress, Anxiety, and Fear are your worst enemy. If you know how to control your thoughts, emotions, and feelings and focus on the positives you're better off.

Survival mode is living in fear, and attacking other people, blaming other people, harming other people when they have no control over the Corona Virus anymore then the rest of us.
 

Mattie

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I believe these were social issues and social problems before COVID19 Virus began. If you're a Human Service Worker or Civil Services you know the systems don't work. Not to mention the social classes all operate on different rules in the game of life.

This Virus is pretty much going to have people questioning their Values, Morals, Ethics, and perhaps change the systems for everyone. While you have the hoarders, the scammers, they're blatantly going to be caught as you see already in social media. Human nature is complex. Fortunately, until the Internet came around people were held back in society be ignorance. Education was limited globally. You didn't have all the social classes with access to education as they are now.

I can tell you in every social class you have those unscrupulous people taking advantage of someone else. There is no barrier in what one will do for power, dominance, and control over others. Hustlers in the hood know how to manipulate emotions, thoughts, feelings, and take advantage of the situation.

A perfect society we shall never see. And then you have those who take of their medical and mental health and those who don't. Belief systems, are only changed when you choose to remove yourself from a certain social group. Which there are tons of social groups, with their agenda, intentions, motivations, and harm others intentionally or not intentionally. This all depends on where you're standing in the world.

You have racism, prejudice, discrimination, and persecution in every culture. The Psychology is a contageon far more then the Virus in some social groups. You allow certain people to influence you and of course they have a cause and effect on whether you succeed or fail. We can push it further to life and death in this scenario.

It really shouldn't surprise us that an event like this which is basically all about the survival mode and survival mechanism would bring out the worst in human nature. Anyone can take the wrong action or right action. It just depends on what your values are, your ethics, your morals, and what you value the most.

For some people they don't even know how to value their own self worth, so of course they're not going to value yours. And even if you believe others value your life, you find out in events like this sometimes they don't value your life at all.

In my case, I understand as a former Nurse Aide and Mental Health Worker, human nature doesn't value anyone that isn't healthy, young, and wealthy. People are forgotten, left behind the scenes in hosptials, private homes, nursing homes, adult foster care homes, and it doesn't matter their social status or how much wealth they have.

I've seen the finest in human nature and fortunately, it is what it is. If you're lucky to have to the right people walk in your life at the right time, have grattitude, be thankful, appreciate for what they do for you. Quit the prejudice, discrimination, anger, rage, bitterness, and how all unfair it is. There are good people in every social class, just like there are people who don't do the right thing in every social class.

In this situation, no one's more special then the other. Even Bill Gates stated this himself. Stress, Anxiety, and Fear are your worst enemy. If you know how to control your thoughts, emotions, and feelings and focus on the positives you're better off.

Survival mode is living in fear, and attacking other people, blaming other people, harming other people when they have no control over the Corona Virus anymore then the rest of us.
Here in the netherlands we're up to 13, 614 cases. Not enough beds! Germany may be saving the lives of the Dutch and us U.S. Expats. I don't think their testing very much here either from what I've heard. I'll just stay in the apartment and sit on the balcony and enjoy myself. And flying hope to the U.S. would be sitting in Quarantine for 14 days and probably being contaminated. Although, I haven't seen them evacuate the U.S. There busy evacuating other cultures that might be more relevant.

The flower industry has taken a huge dive! Such lovely flowers. :(
 
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Mattie

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Here in the netherlands we're up to 13, 614 cases. Not enough beds! Germany may be saving the lives of the Dutch and us U.S. Expats. I don't think their testing very much here either from what I've heard. I'll just stay in the apartment and sit on the balcony and enjoy myself. And flying hope to the U.S. would be sitting in Quarantine for 14 days and probably being contaminated. Although, I haven't seen them evacuate the U.S. There busy evacuating other cultures that might be more relevant.

The flower industry has taken a huge dive! Such lovely flowers. :(
Hmm...the Herd Immunity! I'm not one to follow the herd in anything. But I have to say if we have issues here in the Netherlands in the next few weeks it was a deliberate choice.
 

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I was acceptant of the idea of utilising Herd Immunity for the masses while protecting the vulnerable, either until everyone was clear or a vaccine could be released.

It seemed pretty clear who was at risk and so a sensible option, but having 3 people of 21 years and under, (with no underlying health problems, if we are to believe the reports) die in the UK recently has made me wonder. I wasn't too worried about my children contracting C0VlD-19 but I am now.
 

Mattie

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I was acceptant of the idea of utilising Herd Immunity for the masses while protecting the vulnerable, either until everyone was clear or a vaccine could be released.

It seemed pretty clear who was at risk and so a sensible option, but having 3 people of 21 years and under, (with no underlying health problems, if we are to believe the reports) die in the UK recently has made me wonder. I wasn't too worried about my children contracting C0VlD-19 but I am now.
Exactly, it's attacking any age. Even new borns are passing away and others surviving. I don't believe it matters how healthy or what age. They kept all the children in school here until the U.S. shut down schools. And they maybe already exposed here. Everyone I know is well for the most part. It's just starting to spread in my area. But they already are having a difficult time with the number of patients in hospitals and not enough medical equipment and supplies. Germany of course is supposed to be better equipped in the region. Hard to say how it will affect people. I have seen people of all ages be hit online.
 
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RazorCut

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Exactly, it's attacking any age. Even new borns are passing away and others surviving. I don't believe it matters how healthy or what age. They kept all the children in school here until the U.S. shut down schools. And they maybe already exposed here.

Admittingly the odds of death in the young are extremely low but as a father we worry regardless. I listened to a recent podcast where the Doctor being interviewed stated that children now had a licence to kill. That really struck a cord. Just through the nature of being a child it made it so easy for them to pass the virus on. I think all schools should have been shut down sooner as I believe the spread would have been reduced by a significant factor which would have increased the available preparation time.
 

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