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The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

JDx

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Yea, I mean Italy is already starting to see a decline, only 12 days after the lockdown.

View attachment 31439

Let's see what happens.
Hard to draw any conclusion out of those numbers, since the death toll was 2nd highest yesterday and highest the day before. New known cases says nothing, to be honest. We don't know how many people they are even testing. Death toll was lower than the highest, but that's only in 1 day.

Quarantine here in the Netherlands just extended to at least June (was April) and I wonder if the government will force a complete lockdown, people still massively went out to the parks and beaches this weekend...
 
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razor

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And THAT might be the real problem... we have no idea how many people have/had this. My own personal story... for the 3 weeks leading up to the forum event in February, I have never been as sick in my LIFE as I was then. For just over three weeks. Brutal. Tested, non-flu. Hypothetically, this was earlier than known virus in the USA, but I am in regular contact with people from the heart of the manufacturing districts in China. So... is it possible I had it (and my whole family, inflicted with the same shit in January). Brutal. Crazy sick. Unidentified. Antibiotics ineffective. Checked off several of the symptoms (in retrospect) from this. This knocked me out. I remember the feeling (as I communicated to my wife) that I would never get better. It was that bad, that long.

MOST PEOPLE won't die from it, even if they get it. Now I am not suggesting anyone run out and get it... but I am taking a much harder look at the tradeoff. Forecasts for 30% unemployment. Would that kid be better off EMPLOYED but SICK for a few weeks? Maybe.

I know the DEAD GUY wouldn't be better off. I am just starting to awaken after tons of research on this that we maybe still don't know what we are dealing with, good or bad.

A doctor from my old home state, aware of how sick we were just before the meetup - messaged me this morning for the details of our illness that struck the whole household.

I wondered the same thing about catching it myself earlier this year. I'm 39 and decently healthy, and I caught something nasty at the end of January. Multiple days of fever and chest pain in the lungs. I haven't had a fever in over 10 years (incidentally, the last time I had a fever I had bacterial pneumonia).

I wasn't tested for flu or anything, I just waited it out until I finally got better. At the time, I assumed it was the flu, but now I'm not so sure. I'm hoping the antibody test becomes available soon.
 

G-Man

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I see the national guard was deployed overnight to California, Washington, and New York. Does anyone know what they are doing? What is their role right now?
It's their job to ask the questions, now where are your papers? :rofl:
 

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Below are some key highlights/takeaways from a Goldman Sachs investor call that was held yesterday (Saturday) re C0VlD-19 and its economic implications where 1,500 companies dialed in.
Key Takeaways:
---------------------

(1) Projection that 50% of Americans will contract the virus (150MM people) as it is very communicable. This is on a par with the common cold (Rhinovirus) of which there are about 200 strains and of which the majority of Americans will get 2-3 times per year.

(2) Expectation that 70% of Germany (58MM people) will contract the virus. As you know, Chancellor Angela Merkel projects this same figure. This is the next most relevant industrial economy to be effected - watch carefully.

(3) Peak - virus expected over the next 8 weeks, declining thereafter.

(4) The virus appears to be concentrated in a band between 30-50 degrees North latitude, meaning that like the common cold and flu, this virus prefers cold weather. It is expected that the coming summer in the Northern hemisphere should help. This is to say that the virus is likely seasonal.

(5) Of those impacted, 80% will be early-stage, 15% mid-stage and 5% critical-stage. Early-stage symptoms are like the common cold and mid-stage symptoms are like the flu. These are stay at home for 2 weeks and rest. 5% will be critical and highly-weighted toward the elderly.

(6) Mortality rate, on average, up to 2%, heavily weighted toward the elderly and immunocompromised; meaning possibly up to 3MM (150MM x 2%) people. In the U.S. about 3MM/year die mostly due to old age and disease, those two being highly correlated. There will be significant overlap, so this does not mean 3MM new deaths from this virus. It means elderly people dying sooner due to respiratory issues. C0VlD-19 may, however, stress the healthcare system.

(7) There is a debate as to how to address the virus pre-vaccine. The U.S. is tending towards quarantine. The UK is tending toward allowing it to spread, so that the population can develop a natural immunity. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage, but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load.

(8) China’s economy has been significantly impacted, which has affected raw materials and the global supply chain. It may take up to 6 months for it to recover.

(9) Global GDP growth rate will be the lowest in 30 years at around 2%.

(10) S&P 500 companies likely to see a negative growth rate of -15% to -20% for 2020 overall.

(11) There will be economic damage from the virus itself, but the real damage is driven mostly by market psychology. Viruses have been with us forever. Goldman believes stock markets should fully recover in the 2nd half of the year.

(12) In the past week there has been a conflating of the impact of the virus with the developing oil price war between the KSA and Russia. While reduced energy prices are generally good for industrial economies the U.S., now a large energy exporter, is feeling a significant negative impact on the valuation of its domestic energy sector. This will continue for some time as the Russians are attempting to economically squeeze the American shale producers and the Saudi’s are caught in the middle and do not want to further cede market share to Russia or the U.S.

(13) Technically, the market generally has been looking for a reason to reset after the longest bull market in history.

(14) There is NO systemic risk. No one is even talking about that as the private banking sector is very well capitalized. Governments are intervening in the markets to stabilize them. Goldman did not address non-bank banks and their respective balance sheets, which are not as healthy as the regulated banking sector.

(15) Goldman: This feels more like 9/11 than 2008…
 
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Jon L

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Hard to draw any conclusion out of those numbers, since the death toll was 2nd highest yesterday and highest the day before. New known cases says nothing, to be honest. We don't know how many people they are even testing. Death toll was lower than the highest, but that's only in 1 day.

Quarantine here in the Netherlands just extended to at least June (was April) and I wonder if the government will force a complete lockdown, people still massively went out to the parks and beaches this weekend...
Its not definitive, but we expect to see the kind of decline that is shown in that graph. It takes a number of days between when people actually catch the virus and when they typically get tested. That means that there will be a lag time between when the New Cases count shows a decline and the start of the quarantine. What actually happens is that the actual new case count immediately starts to decline when a quarantine is implemented, but because of the lag time in testing, that decrease doesn't show up for a number of days.

If this trend continues in the chart, then things start to get a lot more definitive.
 

ChrisV

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Goldman: This feels more like 9/11 than 2008…
yea which pretty much was fully recovered within a month

thanks.. this post made me a bit more optimistic
 

Trevor Kuntz

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For those with a better understanding of US federal/state structure than I, what power would the president have to force states to reverse state or local lockdowns? Could an executive order force states to lift shelter-in-place orders and force businesses to reopen?
 
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Trevor Kuntz

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7) There is a debate as to how to address the virus pre-vaccine. The U.S. is tending towards quarantine. The UK is tending toward allowing it to spread, so that the population can develop a natural immunity. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage, but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load.

Since your call, the UK has adopted the same quarantine measures as other European countries. If any country adopts the "let the chips fall where they may" approach now, I suspect it will be the US. I have a strong sense that Trump HATES the quarantine policies, which are way too passive for his taste and that he would rather take the UK's former approach. If this were not an election year, I think he could allow for even the highest estimate of 1.5M deaths before blinking. The election year factor is the unknown variable for me in terms of how he will direct the country.

That's why I asked my question about how much power he has to force open the shelter-in-place states.
 

Kak

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For those with a better understanding of US federal/state structure than I, what power would the president have to force states to reverse state or local lockdowns? Could an executive order force states to lift shelter-in-place orders and force businesses to reopen?

Probably little to no power over it and that is honestly a good thing. This is a big a$$ country. What fits in one area might not in another. New York City, for instance, has problems. The Woodlands, Texas doesn’t. One shouldn’t be effected by the other’s policy needs.

The governors actually have authority over the national guard.
 

Vigilante

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Since your call, the UK has adopted the same quarantine measures as other European countries. If any country adopts the "let the chips fall where they may" approach now, I suspect it will be the US. I have a strong sense that Trump HATES the quarantine policies, which are way too passive for his taste and that he would rather take the UK's former approach. If this were not an election year, I think he could allow for even the highest estimate of 1.5M deaths before blinking. The election year factor is the unknown variable for me in terms of how he will direct the country.

That's why I asked my question about how much power he has to force open the shelter-in-place states.

nothing will ever approach that death toll

look at Wuhan
 
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Trevor Kuntz

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nothing will ever approach that death toll

look at Wuhan
1.5M US deaths is the high-end estimate for US deaths without containment over 18 months. Low-end is usually 250,000 to 500,000.

Politically and economically, the US will never be able to take the measures that the CCP took in Wuhan, including welding infected people inside buildings. The US also can't readily deploy healthcare workers and equipment from unaffected areas to affected areas in the way that China did. Between the extreme measures taken and the questionable reliability of the reported numbers, we really can't use China's experience to forecast our own.
 

ChrisV

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For those with a better understanding of US federal/state structure than I, what power would the president have to force states to reverse state or local lockdowns? Could an executive order force states to lift shelter-in-place orders and force businesses to reopen?
Probably little to no power over it and that is honestly a good thing. This is a big a$$ country. What fits in one area might not in another. New York City, for instance, has problems. The Woodlands, Texas doesn’t. One shouldn’t be effected by the other’s policy needs.

The governors actually have authority over the national guard.

Yea civics 101.. your governor has much more influence/power than the federal government on your area.
 

Trevor Kuntz

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Yea civics 101.. your governor has much more influence/power than the federal government on your area.

Right, in normal circumstances, but I was just wondering how "wartime powers" or emergency powers factor into the normal power dynamic between the federal level and the state level. We've already seen conflict in the city/state dynamic with NYC and NY, so I suppose it will be interesting to see how it plays out if Trump wants to take a mitigation approach while the states remain in a containment approach.
 
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Kak

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1.5M US deaths is the high-end estimate for US deaths without containment over 18 months. Low-end is usually 250,000 to 500,000.

Politically and economically, the US will never be able to take the measures that the CCP took in Wuhan, including welding infected people inside buildings. The US also can't readily deploy healthcare workers and equipment from unaffected areas to affected areas in the way that China did. Between the extreme measures taken and the questionable reliability of the reported numbers, we really can't use China's experience to forecast our own.

The doctors and statisticians are trying to come up with these numbers, but they are based on weak foundational constants.

We have untold millions that have never been tested because the symptoms weren’t bad enough and we don’t have enough tests We are basing the death rate on an arbitrary confirmed cases number when the unconfirmed case count could already be tenfold that of the confirmed.

My point is this is definitely not a number that they can so easily toss out there like that. The actual death rate is unquestionably smaller.
 

WillHurtDontCare

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Below are some key highlights/takeaways from a Goldman Sachs investor call that was held yesterday (Saturday) re C0VlD-19 and its economic implications where 1,500 companies dialed in.
Key Takeaways:

...

There is NO systemic risk

This is an arrogant and biased assumption. No one knows how the coming months will play out, but that certainly isn't a card that you can take off the table.
 

Trevor Kuntz

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The doctors and statisticians are trying to come up with these numbers, but they are based on weak foundational constants.

We have untold millions that have never been tested because the symptoms weren’t bad enough and we don’t have enough tests We are basing the death rate on an arbitrary confirmed cases number when the unconfirmed case count could already be tenfold that of the confirmed.

My point is this is definitely not a number that they can so easily toss out there like that. The actual death rate is unquestionably smaller.

I think the reason the numbers are so high is because they also factor in deaths that are not caused by the virus. For example, when the healthcare system is overwhelmed by COVID19 patients and someone has an unrelated heart attack and cannot be treated, that is a non-viral death but an indirect death caused by the pandemic itself. If every emergency bed is filled with severe COVID19 patients, the mortality rate from other health emergencies (cardiac arrest, cancer, trauma, etc) will also increase significantly. I really don't think the 250,000 figure is that unrealistic. If the virus-related death rate is 1%, then 50% infection rate would be 1.5M US deaths, which is possible.

States are taking an extremely cautious "abundance of caution" approach because of how much is unknown about the virus and due to lack of data. "Luckily" for TX and AZ, NY will continue to be the canary in the coal mine for the rest of the states in terms of data and outcomes.
 
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GIlman

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nothing will ever approach that death toll

look at Wuhan

Wuhan’s reported death rate was 3.4%. If just 100 million in the US were infected assuming that rate that would be 3.4 million. Granted, death rate can and does vary widely based on many factors. But just saying that 1.5 million deaths if enough are infected is not unrealistic, and baring some treatment breakthrough expected.

Also, not sure how anyone assumes any death rate less than 1%. SK has done very aggressive testing, and last I checked their death rate now stood at 1.2%, and many people have yet to recover fully, some will die and push that percentage even higher. Most reports I have seen do not think there is a significantly huge # of undiagnosed in SK. And they have been far far more aggressive than the US in both testing and containment. Plus it is estimated they have 6x the hospital capacity we do.

Even diamond princess has 1.1% rate, age skews older but healthy enough to travel, many young people take cruises too, and 15 people remain in serious to critical condition which will likely push the rate even higher. This population we know 100% the # infected, and should know 100% the # that died. Down side is small population.

this is an honest question. How are people coming up with a death rate < 1%, what are your data, assumptions, and methods?

I would love to believe a very low death rate, I just can’t make any honest assessment so far to believe it.
 
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Kak

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I think the reason the numbers are so high is because they also factor in deaths that are not caused by the virus. For example, when the healthcare system is overwhelmed by COVID19 patients and someone has an unrelated heart attack and cannot be treated, that is a non-viral death but an indirect death caused by the pandemic itself. If every emergency bed is filled with severe COVID19 patients, the mortality rate from other health emergencies (cardiac arrest, cancer, trauma, etc) will also increase significantly. I really don't think the 250,000 figure is that unrealistic. If the virus-related death rate is 1%, then 50% infection rate would be 1.5M US deaths, which is possible.

States are taking an extremely cautious "abundance of caution" approach because of how much is unknown about the virus and due to lack of data. "Luckily" for TX and AZ, NY will continue to be the canary in the coal mine for the rest of the states in terms of data and outcomes.

I see what you are saying there.

Based on the unknown numbers of undiagnosed cases, the death rate could be closer to %.1. We just don’t know. If we did though, how does that change everyone’s outlook?

My point is if we had a ton of these undocumented cases already, they are already out of the woods and not going to overwhelm hospitals, that changes everything.
 

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I think the reason the numbers are so high is because they also factor in deaths that are not caused by the virus. For example, when the healthcare system is overwhelmed by COVID19 patients and someone has an unrelated heart attack and cannot be treated, that is a non-viral death but an indirect death caused by the pandemic itself. If every emergency bed is filled with severe COVID19 patients, the mortality rate from other health emergencies (cardiac arrest, cancer, trauma, etc) will also increase significantly. I really don't think the 250,000 figure is that unrealistic. If the virus-related death rate is 1%, then 50% infection rate would be 1.5M US deaths, which is possible.

States are taking an extremely cautious "abundance of caution" approach because of how much is unknown about the virus and due to lack of data. "Luckily" for TX and AZ, NY will continue to be the canary in the coal mine for the rest of the states in terms of data and outcomes.
 
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Statistics are very difficult to interpret most times. There are so many biases and unknowns that can creep in and either scare the shyt out of you, or give you a false sense of security. I am of the mindset that these numbers are probably WAY off and we will likely find that this virus was the latest boogey man. The total number of deaths just is not concerning enough to warrant the amount of economical fallout that we may face. If people were bleeding from their eyes and looking a little more Ebola-ish, yeah....probably a good idea to lock it down.
 

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Based on the unknown numbers of undiagnosed cases, the death rate could be closer to %.1. We just don’t know. If we did though, how does that change everyone’s outlook?

My point is if we had a ton of these undocumented cases already, they are already out of the woods and not going to overwhelm hospitals, that changes everything.
granted that italy does have a large elderly population, but that's exactly what's happening there. Hospitals are completely overwhelmed, people are being treated in hallways, they have to decide who gets oxygen. it's bad there.


 
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I see what you are saying there.

Based on the unknown numbers of undiagnosed cases, the death rate could be closer to %.1. We just don’t know. If we did though, how does that change everyone’s outlook?

My point is if we had a ton of these undocumented cases already, they are already out of the woods and not going to overwhelm hospitals, that changes everything.

Which is why I am glad that I am not the one in charge of determining local and state policies right now.

Governors and mayors are effectively having to play nature's version of the Trolley Problem, except that no one can really say whether the Trolley weighs 1 ton or 100 lbs or 10 lbs and no one will really know until it actually "hits" the people on the track.
 
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Which is why I am glad that I am not the one in charge of determining local and state policies right now.

Governors and mayors are effectively having to play nature's version of the Trolley Problem, except that no one can really say whether the Trolley weighs 1 ton or 100 lbs or 10 lbs and no one will really know until it actually "hits" the people on the track.

It is all a guess right now. Everything. That is what it comes down to. Curve flattening policy. Curve flattening need. Whether the stock market will rise. Whether it will continue to fall.

This is what I told my money manager when I pulled out of the markets on Tuesday last week. They asked if “I am sure.” I said hell yes I am sure this isn’t investing this is guessing.

They also know I moved the money to my own self directed account so that probably upset them too.

I’ll re-enter at some point and swing for the fences. On my own terms, not theirs. That point isn’t now. Every number someone comes up with has holes in it. I’m hoping we see some real figures.

You can’t just lock everyone in their homes indefinitely. All it takes is one person to not listen and start this crap all over again.

We will just have to see.
 

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Just spilling a few of my own thoughts on the balancing act between health and the economy.

There's a bunch of different priorities that world leaders will have to choose from in the decisions they make. Top of the list (in no particular order) are probably...
  • Save lives
  • Preserve the economy
  • Protect national security
Problem is, we have incomplete information on HOW to do each one and WHAT to do to accomplish each one. And it seems to be changing all the time as new data comes in.

Plus, the hand of cards we're dealt includes...
  • An incredibly transmissible virus that no one is immune to
  • Insufficient medical equipment (PPE, masks, ventilators)
  • Limited pharmaceuticals
  • Extremely divided sentiment in the population (spanning the gamut between "nothing burger" and "the sky is falling.")

If A, then B
I've been running various iterations of this through my mind.

A is our response to the crisis. We get to pick A. (At least, the world leaders do.)

B is the consequences that follow from A. We don't get to pick B. Often, no one fully knows ahead of time what B even is.

But when we pick A, we're really picking B.

So which version of B are we the most comfortable with (to the extent that we can foresee and predict B)?

Let's run through some options for A.

Obviously, this is my own guesswork (given the best information I've been able to gather). World leaders will obviously have better projections based on expert data. This is simply how it looks to me in my puny little brain. I hope it's also clear that I realize I don't get to make these decisions. But this is what I would be looking at if I did have to make the decision.

A.1. Let's keep as many people as possible from getting the virus. Lock everyone down.
B = The economy is destroyed.


My husband made the comment this morning that if the economy gets wrecked, that will kill a whole lot more people than the virus will.

This seems entirely plausible.

Also B = Hungry people will go beserk and crime will escalate.

Also B = The virus will pop right back up as soon as quarantine ends.


So, we're back to square one and we have to pick a new version of A (or pick the same one again).


Hmmm, I don't like the look of that scenario. Let's try a different one.


A.2. Let the virus burn through the population.
Rip off the bandaid fast. Build herd immunity as fast as possible.

During the Spanish Flu, we were in the middle of WWI. So nobody shut anything down. New recruits would board a ship and many of them would die of the flu before they ever got over to the battleground. Didn't matter. Keep 'em coming. Then more would die of the flu in the trenches. Didn't matter. Keep 'em coming.

B = Hospitals are overwhelmed. Many people die. Many health care workers also die, further reducing hospital capacity.
Loss of life will not just be limited to COVID patients. There will also be a ton of heart attack patients, stroke victims, people with cancer and countless other diseases, and people in accidents, who never get the care they need. Many people who could have survived will die.

Also B = Society-wide outrage at how governments prioritized wealth over human life.
Civil unrest. Massive loss of trust in government. Most people will not think to acknowledge that the government COULD have picked A.1 and LOADS of people (perhaps even MORE people) would STILL have died.

Also B = The economy suffers anyway
Massive numbers of people getting this virus will mean massive loss of life. That will mean lots of vacant job positions. An enormous knowledge base disappears from the earth. Another enormous number of people will recover but experience lifelong damage, including reduced lung capacity and long-term neurological disorders. It is unknown how many of these people will become a burden on society and require care. It is unknown how much the economy will suffer.

It appears that most governments are looking at option A.2 and saying, "No thanks, too costly."

So let's consider a different approach.

A.3. Pretend like we're prioritizing life, but actually prioritize the economy.
Implement some measures like quarantines and testing, but do it halfheartedly. Abandon them when there's an outcry about unemployment and how it's not going to work anyway because too many young people aren't complying.

B = A blend of the implications of A.1 and A.2, probably weighted toward A.2. However, the society-wide outrage at how governments prioritized wealth over human life will probably be minimized, because people think that there was an attempt to prioritize life.

In my opinion, this is what I'm seeing most Western governments choose.

In the early stages, we saw widespread dissemination of messages like "The flu is worse." This was coming from both leaders and the media.

We also saw a collective unavailability of testing until it was too late for testing to be relevant. The early stage of aggressive testing + contact tracing + quarantining of any potentially exposed people was completely skipped.

Now, although we're in a stage of "stay home" and lockdowns, we're also seeing a shift in sentiment and messaging, focusing people's attention on the economic consequences of being locked down. It would not make sense to focus people's attention here if it was not being planned to prioritize the economy and lift the lockdowns.

President Trump just said at the White House press conference today,
"This started as a medical problem, but it's turning into a far-reaching financial problem. We're not going to let that happen."

But there was at least one remaining version of A, which I think we saw in South Korea. This version is no longer available to the US. We waited too long. It would have required quick, decisive action, leaders who communicated transparently about the threat of the virus, and an early expenditure of resources that would have seemed out-of-proportion to the risk at the time.

A.4. Conduct aggressive testing and contract tracing of infected patients
Instead of waiting until the virus gets to the point of community spread, do whatever it takes to suppress the virus from reaching the wider population.

B = Minimize both the economic loss and the loss of life

By aggressively isolating anyone who might possibly be infected, it allows everyone else to circulate freely in the society, keep their jobs, and maintain a sense of normalcy and order.

Too bad we didn't choose this option back at the end of January.
 

GIlman

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granted that italy does have a large elderly population, but that's exactly what's happening there. Hospitals are completely overwhelmed, people are being treated in hallways, they have to decide who gets oxygen. it's bad there.



yeah, I don’t understand this at all. I keep asking, anyone, tell me how we are different than Italy, all I have got is that they have lots of people over 80. reports are that hospitals are filled with 30-60’s and older people are being often turned away to die. We have lots of old people here too.

my real concern at the moment is my parents living in Utah, and living in AZ. NY, Cali, and WA are sucking up our reserves of masks, medicine, and equipment. What happens to states and communities late to the party after all reserves have been filed out. At some point production will ease this problem, question is how much will it ease it and how long until it does. Will it be in time to matter to me and the ones I love.

what I do know, I will not sit back and let Jackie work in the hospital without reasonable protective equipment. The risk to health care workers is much greater than the population at large, because outcome appears to be related to the viral load of exposure. All the people that say risk is low and just let it rip, that’s fine, but don’t expect people to sacrifice their own Heath and lives to save your and your loved ones when the system fails to provide the protection needed. Granted we are in a fortunate position because her income has no impact to our quality of life, but form that situation that’s the position I intend to take.
 
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ChrisV

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I don't want to be insensitive and if i'm wrong please let me know. I'm wondering if the unemployment situation is being overblown and we can't learn to do most (of course not all) things from home. many businesses are just changing their business models. restaurants are starting to deliver meals, people are using grocery delivery services..

i honesty think that long term this thing is going to have numerous positive benefits; just like WW2 did

companies are going to realize they can save tons of money by having people work from home

people are going to realize they save tones of money in fuel, getting lunch at work, etc

right now almost every person in the US utilizes 2 pieces of real estate.. their homes and their jobs. May of those jobs can be done from home. All that real estate space can be used for better things that bring us more value... all that commute time and money can be used better elsewhere

the next 6 months is going to suck, but I think after that we're going to bounce back to be much better then ever. much much much.
 

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Wuhan’s reported death rate was 3.4%. If just 100 million in the US were infected assuming that rate that would be 3.4 million. Granted, death rate can and does vary widely based on many factors. But just saying that 1.5 million deaths if enough are infected is not unrealistic, and baring some treatment breakthrough expected.

Also, not sure how anyone assumes any death rate less than 1%. SK has done very aggressive testing, and last I checked their death rate now stood at 1.2%, and many people have yet to recover fully, some will die and push that percentage even higher. Most reports I have seen do not think there is a significantly huge # of undiagnosed in SK. And they have been far far more aggressive than the US in both testing and containment. Plus it is estimated they have 6x the hospital capacity we do.

Even diamond princess has 1.1% rate, age skews older but healthy enough to travel, many young people take cruises too, and 15 people remain in serious to critical condition which will likely push the rate even higher. This population we know 100% the # infected, and should know 100% the # that died. Down side is small population.

this is an honest question. How are people coming up with a death rate < 1%, what are your data, assumptions, and methods?

I would love to believe a very low death rate, I just can’t make any honest assessment so far to believe it.

wuhan population is 11m

deaths attributed are roughly 3,000

3000 into 11 million is roughly .03%

Of those affected they are now estimating Less than 2% of the people that actually get coronavirus die of it Or related complications.

 

GIlman

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wuhan population is 11m

deaths attributed are roughly 3,000

3000 into 11 million is roughly .03%

Of those affected they are now estimating Less than 2% of the people that actually get coronavirus die of it Or related complications.


I don’t understand the logic of your argument.

Wuhan was locked down when then knew of 422 known infections. Certainly more were infected than they knew about. But they have been in quarantine for 2+ months. Why not extrapolate to all of China’s 1+ billion people and make a statistic that sounds even better.

The virus had free reign for a very brief period. Basically your argument boils down to this.

0.03% = rate of death under 100% quarantine with starting Known contagion of 422 people.

So your assertion more accurately supports the effectiveness of early quarantine not unmitigated spread. You have to consider both the statistic and the conditions under which that statistic is derived. Without considering both the usefulness of the datapoint is nothing.

EDIT: It’s probably better to refer to case fatality rate (CFR), because it takes the variable of population size out. You can make the number as favorable as you want simply by expanding the population considered otherwise. Population size only matters in respect to the infectious rate and total infected. Then the total dead is all a matter of the CFR times number infected. Toys dead then becomes a function of number infected, hence the idea why people are trying quarantines. Decrease # infected equals fewer deaths.

My views on how to handle this are evolving overtime. there are so many variables and things to consider and as @Bekit points out many roads lead to many unanticipated consequences.
 
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ChrisV

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from the studies done on it:

31444

there are lots of studies on this so it's best to rely on meta analyses... which are basically studies of studies... it's something like the average of all the studies

Again this is 'confirmed cases' .. the elderly rates are more likely to be more accurate than the younger people because the young people are more likely to have subclinical illness (an 80 year old is less likely to 'just get the sniffles' from this, while younger ppl are)
 

Primeperiwinkle

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*girl fit incoming

FFS people!!! I can’t drive and read at the same time! Is it too much to ask that y’all don’t have five F*cking pages of interesting conjecture and information on the two days of the year that I’m driving!!!

In other news... I’m a superhero, I went into a truck stop today in Texarkana with two kids and managed to use the restroom and get back to the car without ANYONE touching ANYTHING except with the toe of my boot which.. was subsequently hand sanitized to within an inch of its life.
 

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