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The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

ChrisV

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After reading through the paper, here's my knee-jerk prediction about how this will play out.

After an initial halfhearted attempt at flattening the curve, Western nations will give up. "Mitigation doesn't work and suppression is too hard and people don't comply with it anyway."

So the virus will burn through the population and cause however many deaths it is going to cause.

Except that China will keep it suppressed. They've already shown that they can.

If it plays out like this, I see the following implications:
  • Massive worldwide grief as people's hearts are broken when they lose multiple loved ones
  • Obvious economic collapse as production drops to a fraction of the previous level (lost workers + bankrupt businesses + depressed or health-challenged survivors)
  • Enormous national security risks as China sees an opportune time to covet American farmland
I don't know.. I think this is a little 'sky is falling.'-esque.

Once we get widespread testing we'll be able to contain things much better even without these drastic lockdown measures.

Things are bad, but I don't think we'll get to this.
 
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Rivoli

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I’m just saying sometimes the masses get mindviruses. When everyone believes something and no questioning or difference is allowed it’s a red flag to me.

they do things not because it’s right or measured, but because everyone else is doing them.

there’s so many other ways to do things rather than shut the entire economy down

we could let it spread and:

1) lock down elderly people to their houses
2) build surge hospitals and military hospitals in a Manhattan project style
3) pour hundreds of billions into a therapeutic

remember 45% of deaths in Italy are over 80, 53 % over 60

And let it spread through young people. Don’t contain it.
Within a month most young people will have it. Then they will be immmune and there will be no resurgence.

how they are doing things now, it will come back This winter before the vaccine and we will close the economy again.

It’s not worth it guys. We are going to lose 1.5 trillion in GDP every quarter.

I’m not saying it’s just about the money. You are all business owners with money. Most people live pay check to pay check and believe me this will ruin lives and generations.
 

Rivoli

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I don't know.. I think this is a little 'sky is falling.'-esque.

Once we get widespread testing we'll be able to contain things much better even without these drastic lockdown measures.

Things are bad, but I don't think we'll get to this.
Peter thiel talks about it a lot - the average scientist today is pretty bad. The age of Feynman is over.
 

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ChrisV

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This has been my concern for weeks, how do you come out of quarantine. The population remains vulnerable, the cycle can just repeat.

my concern was outlined about 1/2 back in this thread. I’m very concerned that the economic toll and isolationism from this lasts 1year plus and puts us into another depression. Not a recession, a full on depression. Like Dow going to 8-10K bad. Maybe worse. The government can’t save every business out there. They can’t inject unlimited cash they don’t have. At some point the dollar would get blown out and inflation would be insane. Stagflation at it’s worst.

but this isn’t about the money or economy to me. I have my family and that’s all that really matters to me. I pray my parents stay safe, I pray my 7 siblings and their children stay safe. I feel hopeful and upbeat that no matter where this goes, we will figure out how to move on.

here is my original post #1119

let's hope more people can learn to work from home. I mean obviously that's not feasible with many jobs, but perhaps the economy can still move forward in the digital age without so much human-to-human interaction.

I’m just saying sometimes the masses get mindviruses.

they do things not because it’s right or measured, but because everyone else is doing them.

there’s so many other ways to do things rather than shut the entire economy down

we could let it spread and:

1) lock down elderly people to their houses
2) build surge hospitals and military hospitals in a Manhattan project style
3) pour hundreds of billions into a therapeutic

remember 45% of deaths in Italy are over 80, 53 % over 60

And let it spread through young people. Don’t contain it.
Within a month most young people will have it. Then they will be immmune and there will be no resurgence.

how they are doing things now, it will come back This winter before the vaccine and we will close the economy again.

It’s not worth it guys. We are going to lose 1.5 trillion in GDP every quarter.

I’m not saying it’s just about the money. You are all business owners with money. Most people live pay check to pay check and believe me this will ruin lives and generations.
I mean you're not 100% wrong... if just locking down the elderly and those at risk were that simple, it probably would be a good solution. But we really don't have the infrastructure to just round up the elderly into quarantine camps. Plus it would need individual rooms, with individual supplies of air (so air doesn't mix)

Or do we just lock them down at home. Send the National Guard to each home and stand outside with rifles making sure they don't leave. What about their doctors appointments and medications? It's more complicated than that.

We've already suggested that they stay home. How do we enforce it?

But then we have the issue of 70% of the healthy population taking off sick days. And how do you keep the elderly and at-risk from being sick when the entire world around them is infested with germs.
 

Mattie

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loop101

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This has been my concern for weeks, how do you come out of quarantine. The population remains vulnerable, the cycle can just repeat.

my concern was outlined about 1/2 back in this thread. I’m very concerned that the economic toll and isolationism from this lasts 1year plus and puts us into another depression. Not a recession, a full on depression. Like Dow going to 8-10K bad. Maybe worse. The government can’t save every business out there. They can’t inject unlimited cash they don’t have. At some point the dollar would get blown out and inflation would be insane. Stagflation at it’s worst.

but this isn’t about the money or economy to me. I have my family and that’s all that really matters to me. I pray my parents stay safe, I pray my 7 siblings and their children stay safe. I feel hopeful and upbeat that no matter where this goes, we will figure out how to move on.

here is my original post #1119

I thought the quarantine was also to buy time for a vaccine to be developed. A lot is going to happen over the next 2 months. They are working very hard on drugs both to avoid being infected and making the infection less lethal. I don't think the quarantine is just to "flatten the curve" until a majority of people have survived it.

My guess is, they tell everyone to stay inside their homes for 4-6 weeks while they prepare the drugs. The virus should also be contained within 3 weeks. All the red tape and legal issues are going to be swept away. America is fully mobilizing like we did during WW2.

Imagine all the young people that have had to go fight wars like WW1 and WW2, this generation of young people is just being asked to stay inside and play video-games. They can't do that?

I predict that if "millenials" won't stay inside, some politician will say "You know, we could activate the Draft and send all these young people to Afganistan", and all these kids will shut right the F*ck up and go play World of Warcraft until the grownups have dealt with the virus.
 
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Rivoli

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let's hope more people can learn to work from home. I mean obviously that's not feasible with many jobs, but perhaps the economy can still move forward in the digital age without so much human-to-human interaction.


I mean you're not 100% wrong... if just locking down the elderly and those at risk were that simple, it probably would be a good solution. But we really don't have the infrastructure to just round up the elderly into quarantine camps. Plus it would need individual rooms, with individual supplies of air (so air doesn't mix)

Or do we just lock them down at home. Send the National Guard to each home and stand outside with rifles making sure they don't leave. What about their doctors appointments and medications? It's more complicated than that.

We've already suggested that they stay home. How do we enforce it?

But then we have the issue of 70% of the healthy population taking off sick days. And how do you keep the elderly and at-risk from being sick when the entire world around them is infested with germs.

yeah but no matter what the solution Chris it’s cheaper than locking down the entire economy. Even if you send a soldier to every older persons door. And to help them , it’s cheaper then the trillions of dollars we are losing right now.

even if there are 100 million old people it only costs about 200 billion to have a soldier outside their door to help them
 

Rivoli

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This has been my concern for weeks, how do you come out of quarantine. The population remains vulnerable, the cycle can just repeat.

my concern was outlined about 1/2 back in this thread. I’m very concerned that the economic toll and isolationism from this lasts 1year plus and puts us into another depression. Not a recession, a full on depression. Like Dow going to 8-10K bad. Maybe worse. The government can’t save every business out there. They can’t inject unlimited cash they don’t have. At some point the dollar would get blown out and inflation would be insane. Stagflation at it’s worst.

but this isn’t about the money or economy to me. I have my family and that’s all that really matters to me. I pray my parents stay safe, I pray my 7 siblings and their children stay safe. I feel hopeful and upbeat that no matter where this goes, we will figure out how to move on.

here is my original post #1119

It’s not worth the cost.
 
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Rivoli

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I thought the quarantine was also to buy time for a vaccine to be developed. A lot is going to happen over the next 2 months. They are working very hard on drugs both to avoid being infected and making the infection less lethal. I don't think the quarantine is just to "flatten the curve" until a majority of people have survived it.

My guess is, they tell everyone to stay inside their homes for 4-6 weeks while they prepare the drugs. The virus should also be contained within 3 weeks. All the red tape and legal issues are going to be swept away. America is fully mobilizing like we did during WW2.

Imagine all the young people that have had to go fight wars like WW1 and WW2, this generation of young people is just being asked to stay inside and play video-games. They can't do that?

I predict that if "millenials" won't stay inside, some politician will say "You know, we could activate the Draft and send all these young people to Afganistan", and all these kids will shut right the F*ck up and go play World of Warcraft until the grownups have dealt with the virus.
Vaccine isn’t coming for a year dude.
Regeneron has a therapeutic that might work and be ready by summer.
 

GIlman

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View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-zbpYOqeWA4

Sigh! I take Ibuprofen for migraines usually. I guess not anymore for right now.

I’m not saying to take or not take ibuprofen, but this debate has been out there for a long time and as far as I’m aware is not settled. They have had the same theoretical concern for hearing broken bones, even though a whole lot of people take ibuprofen for broken bones and heal fine. The research has not been conclusive, with contradictory studies last time I looked.

I actually researched this some time ago because I had a compression injury to my back, it’s a type of fracture. I had no disability except horrible pain and ibuprofen was the only thing that worked well. But I was concerned because I knew some orthopedic surgeons told their patients not to take it. But I was not able to find conclusive research on it. So I took it anyway.
 

GIlman

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It’s not worth the cost.

To you. I grew up on a farm, I would give up all the entrapment a of success and go back there if required, I would be more than happy to sacrifice all the material things I had if that kept my family safe. My family is infinitely more valuable to me than any amount of money. they are the only real asset that matters to me.

I have been on the phone with my brother, who lives in Texas. He is a bartender. We have been taking about if things got bad getting him out here to live with me. Family is going to have to take care of family. Those that have are going to have to look after those that are put out by this.
 
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GPM

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I take one huge positive out of this. We are seeing what happens when massive numbers of workers are able to work from home, rather than all cram into their cubicles in a central location every day. Most people don't need to be in an office. I have never had an office job where I needed to be physically present for more than 1-2 days a week. The rest I could be at home and far more productive.

Hell, even when I had an oilfield job I would make it so that all my paperwork for the month could be handled at home for about 2 days. The rest of the guys literally spend nearly a week in the office doing that same paperwork.

Imagine if this becomes the normal. How many cars off the road, easing traffic for those who do need to travel? How much less pollution from the lack of vehicles, plus the fact that those traveling are operating more efficiently? More time at home with family, less stress of rushing to work and all the shit that comes with travel to and from an office. Less car wrecks.

I hope that North America can really adopt more of a work-from-home attitude out of this for those that are able and want it.
 

ChrisV

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Massive worldwide grief as people's hearts are broken when they lose multiple loved ones
  • Obvious economic collapse as production drops to a fraction of the previous level (lost workers + bankrupt businesses + depressed or health-challenged survivors)
  • Enormous national security risks as China sees an opportune time to covet American farmland
This has been my concern for weeks, how do you come out of quarantine. The population remains vulnerable, the cycle can just repeat.

my concern was outlined about 1/2 back in this thread. I’m very concerned that the economic toll and isolationism from this lasts 1year plus and puts us into another depression. Not a recession, a full on depression. Like Dow going to 8-10K bad. Maybe worse. The government can’t save every business out there. They can’t inject unlimited cash they don’t have. At some point the dollar would get blown out and inflation would be insane. Stagflation at it’s worst.

but this isn’t about the money or economy to me. I have my family and that’s all that really matters to me. I pray my parents stay safe, I pray my 7 siblings and their children stay safe. I feel hopeful and upbeat that no matter where this goes, we will figure out how to move on.

31258

 

Ernman

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I just saw an announcement that Canada and the U.S. have agreed to close their boarder to non-essential traffic. Business crossing are apparently still allowed. Sorry, no more details just yet.
 
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GIlman

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I just saw an announcement that Canada and the U.S. have agreed to close their boarder to non-essential traffic. Business crossing are apparently still allowed. Sorry, no more details just yet.

BTW there was a 5.7 earthquake in Utah a bit ago, if anyone has family there. Epicenter 10 miles from SLC. Hopefully that was the big one and not a precursor quake. 5.7 will rattle people but shouldn’t cause much structural damage. Have had several aftershocks in the mid 3’s.
 

lowtek

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To you. I grew up on a farm, I would give up all the entrapment a of success and go back there if required, I would be more than happy to sacrifice all the material things I had if that kept my family safe. My family is infinitely more valuable to me than any amount of money. they are the only real asset that matters to me.

I have been on the phone with my brother, who lives in Texas. He is a bartender. We have been taking about if things got bad getting him out here to live with me. Family is going to have to take care of family. Those that have are going to have to look after those that are put out by this.

You aren't adopting, are you? :D
 

loop101

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Is Andrew Cuomo making a mistake by resisting the idea of having NYC "shelter in place"?

A few days ago, de Blasio was on Team Ignore Virus, when he said they were going to keep the schools open. Within a few hours of social media abuse, he had done a 180 and was on Team Fight Virus. When de Blasio floated the idea of "shelter in place", Cuomo immediately rejected it.

Cuomo is taking a big risk, with peoples lives, and his own political career. If NYC gets a big spike in infections and deaths, Cuomo is going to get full credit.

 
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lowtek

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View attachment 31258


This is great news for the Chinese, but Americans are not the Chinese.

The average American family has no savings, probably has an 84 month car loan on a 50,000 truck, and 20,000 in student loan debt.

The Chinese value savings over material consumption and most families probably had enough stocked away to deal with this. They're also more accustomed to inter-generational living, which is likely going to end up being the norm for many families (here) in the near future.

Worse yet, some absurd fraction of the people here are on some form of mood/mind altering substance. Substances that come from China, which stopped manufacturing them during their lockdown.

I'm not saying it's going to be the end of the world, because it's not, but I don't look to the far East for signs of what to expect here. Our recovery will look totally different and probably take much longer.

I also don't believe a word that comes out of the Chinese government. They lie about literally every statistic all the time, so it would be absurd to think they're telling the truth now.
 

Primeperiwinkle

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This is great news for the Chinese, but Americans are not the Chinese.

The average American family has no savings, probably has an 84 month car loan on a 50,000 truck, and 20,000 in student loan debt.

The Chinese value savings over material consumption and most families probably had enough stocked away to deal with this. They're also more accustomed to inter-generational living, which is likely going to end up being the norm for many families (here) in the near future.

Worse yet, some absurd fraction of the people here are on some form of mood/mind altering substance. Substances that come from China, which stopped manufacturing them during their lockdown.

I'm not saying it's going to be the end of the world, because it's not, but I don't look to the far East for signs of what to expect here. Our recovery will look totally different and probably take much longer.

I also don't believe a word that comes out of the Chinese government. They lie about literally every statistic all the time, so it would be absurd to think they're telling the truth now.

A friend of mine teaches Chinese students online. She has a student in Wuhan who lives in the 32nd floor of an apartment building.

The kid hasn’t been outside since January.
 

Jon L

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Here's a new study from the Imperial College in London. Its the best set of numbers I've seen so far. They produced a model that shows what's likely to happen over the next 18 months (the time it will likely take to produce a vaccine for this thing). The model is insanely detailed (they take into account the likely distribution of where people work (some people commute 5 minutes to a business, others 20, other 50), the variance between people of how likely they are to spread the disease between people, etc etc etc.


There's a lot to digest in it, but basically, until we have a vaccine, we have to stay on some sort of lockdown or the virus will start spreading again.

So ... this will be an interesting ride. Its not for the faint of heart.
 
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Kyle T

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Obviously there is panic right now & given the expected mortality rate of this disease this panic is justified.

I wanted to discuss something:

Germany.

Why is their mortality rate only .2%?

The number of cases & deaths seem to be starting to ramp up there but they seem to be ahead of most countries when it comes to testing.

They have 75% less deaths than the United States but have 60% more confirmed cases.

When you look at those number and the projections now that 80% of people who contract the disease show little to no symptoms, It is becoming obvious that the mortality rate is going to be much, much lower.

People in that 80% aren't getting tested! The only reason the mortality rate is so high is because we are testing the most extreme cases.

Unless there is something in the water in Germany, It would be safe to assume that there are tens of thousands of more cases here in the US (and all other countries) already that are not documented.

This is also why celebrities & professional athletes are coming out and saying that they tested positive but feel fine....

The only reason they have gotten tested is because they are rich & famous. It is safe to assume that there are millions of us that have the disease already and will never be tested because we feel fine.
 

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Rivoli

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To you. I grew up on a farm, I would give up all the entrapment a of success and go back there if required, I would be more than happy to sacrifice all the material things I had if that kept my family safe. My family is infinitely more valuable to me than any amount of money. they are the only real asset that matters to me.

I have been on the phone with my brother, who lives in Texas. He is a bartender. We have been taking about if things got bad getting him out here to live with me. Family is going to have to take care of family. Those that have are going to have to look after those that are put out by this.
Have you heard of anecdotal evidence?
This is going to spike unemployment to 20% dude. Just because you are hunky dory about living on a farm, doesn’t mean that’s ok for everyone else. We don’t all want to go back to a third world country.
 

ZF Lee

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Have you heard of anecdotal evidence?
This is going to spike unemployment to 20% dude. Just because you are hunky dory about living on a farm, doesn’t mean that’s ok for everyone else. We don’t all want to go back to a third world country.
Well, if that is so, once the dust settles, we'll have to make sure the unemployment level doesn't stay there.

That means we entrepreneurs have to be on our feet as much as we can.

Get ready to fill in the gaps, hook people up and that kind of thing.
Even if we can't hire people, whatever value we create through our products and services may help someone else.

If everyone fears and panics too much, and get nothing done, how else shall we recover? Even the govs know it! That's why China is hopping back into business.
 
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MJ DeMarco

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Just because you are hunky dory about living on a farm, doesn’t mean that’s ok for everyone else.

Just because you're OK with millions of folks dying over a few % of GDP, doesn't mean that's OK for everyone else.

See how that works?

You've been removed from this thread for 1 week.

We understand your position, you've made it clear many, many times.

Maybe one week for now, it will change.
 

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Well, it looks like we're finally starting to get an understanding of what the actual potential consequences of this virus might be if left unchecked.

Additionally, this gives us some insight into why the government has taken the steps that it has, and why we are suddenly feeling such a sense of urgency around this.

This analysis is somewhat sobering, but worth reading, especially for anyone who can't fathom why such extreme measures are needed to contain this thing.

It's about 20 posts... Worth reading to the end.

View: https://twitter.com/jeremycyoung/status/1239975682643357696

I had a read of this last night and it is IMO the most important critical analysis of the entire coronavirus pandemic.

I was firmly in the nothingburger camp until it started hitting Italy hard (like most people I imagine). A deeper dive into the numbers and then looking at people's behaviour made the whole thing feel a lot more real.

Anyway, the imperial paper basically puts numbers to all the policy the UK has been talking about(I found the idea of an "on trigger" and "off trigger" based on ICU cases very interesting). Deaths are inevitable, but it's irresponsible to not try and contain them.

10,000 extra deaths from a novel virus are acceptable but 500,000 aren't. If a government does nothing it's going to be closer to the second number, so they have a duty to follow the PC_CI_HQ_SD rather than the "do nothing". I don't get what's so hard to understand about that @Rivoli.

Point of this post? I feel like I've reached a saturation of information for this disease, I know:
  • What it does
  • How it's spreading
  • What governments can do, and what impact policies will have
  • What part I can play to help minimise an uncontrollable spread (in the long term there is not much that can be done)
  • What other people should be doing
I'll keep an eye out for breakthroughs or big changes but outside of this, I don't feel like refreshing news sources or global COVID charts is going to do any good. I suggest for most people's sanity they do the same and slowly reduce the amount of info they consume on the topic.

This isn't going to last forever and this is a valuable time to "prep" for the recovery and what the world is going to look like when we come out of this.
 

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