The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

[biggeemac]

We had two more positives at a Veterans home about 20 miles from me yesterday in Oregon.

In terms of preparation, I started panic buying like 4 weeks ago. Spent about $4-5k on supplies and food. I have about 15 mouths to feed, perhaps more if some of my kids come looking for food. We're pretty much set up like a mini restaurant now.....including ingredients to make fresh baked goods. I visited one of the stores today to pick up a prescription. The store was amazingly calm and "business as usual". Didn't see any lack of product. I think the town stormed Costco instead.

I don't get it.....either I'm right, or everyone else is wrong.

 

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[lowtek]

My son lives in Phoenix and I got him to go out tonight for some basic supplies. He called me when he got back and the description he gave me of his local grocery store (Camelback/Arcadia area) was pandemonium. If you are reading this thread please lay in some basic supplies. It’s not panic to be prudent and prepared. The panic will kick in when it is too late for you to get the basics that you need in the event that you need them. Everything we have purchased we will use.

More intelligence on this front. A buddy of mine sent his wife out to top off their preparations.

Walmart on McKellips and Greenfield (I think?) was overrun and pretty much out of food.

 

[ShamanKing]

Just came back from Walmart and 2 huge grocery stores. More and more ppl are shopping now but it’s still not too late to buy food and supplies, if you decide so. or is it?

 

[lowtek]

Just came back from Walmart and 2 huge grocery stores. More and more ppl are shopping now but it’s still not too late to buy food and supplies, if you decide so. or is it?

If there are others in your area (not sure if applicable to you, so nothing personal) it would be helpful to state which store you visited. Otherwise it's just information, not intelligence (i.e. not actionable information).

Pretty sure nobody here is going to be stalking each other, so a little liberty can be taken with "operational security" rules.

 

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[PizzaOnTheRoof]

Up to 150 million Americans could get coronavirus: US projection

Between 70 to 150 million people in the United States could eventually be infected with the novel coronavirus, according to a projection shared with Congress, a lawmaker said Thursday. Congresswoman Rashida Tlaib made the remarks during a hearing of the House of Representatives with members of...

news.yahoo.com

It’s ok guys, nothing to worry about...

Just massive hospitalizations, crippling medical debt, failing healthcare/hospitality/travel business, mass unemployment, and lower consumer spending across the board...

 

[loop101]

More intelligence on this front. A buddy of mine sent his wife out to top off their preparations.

Walmart on McKellips and Greenfield (I think?) was overrun and pretty much out of food.

I stocked up 2 weeks ago, but today I went back to Target for fresh bread. They were sold out of canned soup, toilet-paper, aspirin, Flu medicine, santizers, and water. Several people had carts full of paper-towels. Either they are going on a helluva picnic, or they are going to use those paper-towels as toilet-paper.

 

[ShamanKing]

If there are others in your area (not sure if applicable to you, so nothing personal) it would be helpful to state which store you visited. Otherwise it's just information, not intelligence (i.e. not actionable information).

Pretty sure nobody here is going to be stalking each other, so a little liberty can be taken with "operational security" rules.

None taken.

I visited multiple (Loc: North CA specifically Sacramento/Elk Grove) Targets, Walmarts, FoodCo, Savemart and WinCo. If you guys have a WinCo in the area they have the best prices on food like can goodies. Savemart and Safeway still has plenty of stuff b/c their prices turns ppl away. I collect Hotwheels so I visit these places often but with the virus going around I’ll be MIA for a while.

 

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[Juan Pimentel]

More intelligence on this front. A buddy of mine sent his wife out to top off their preparations.

Walmart on McKellips and Greenfield (I think?) was overrun and pretty much out of food.

My dad stop after work to that location. He said it was panic time. Everything was out.

 

[Primeperiwinkle]

Shared a crap article that I didn’t know was crap. Sorry. Deleted it.

 

[GIlman]

I decided it was smart to go ahead and get a pair of oxygen concentrators. Total cost for 2 setups was $2500. This will provide high flow concentrated oxygen for 2 people indefinitely. This probably isn’t the right solution for a lot of people, but gives me the security to take care of my family regardless of what’s happening at the hospitals. The hospitals may become overrun and if the do It’s a lifeline I don’t want to be without incase SHTF. I actually have a portable one to I use in the plane incase 3 people needed O2 at the same time. There are lots of old people using these at home. Basically I’m setting up a 2 bed sick ward for our home.

this is the exact getup I got.

 

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[MHP368]

Solid containment strategy, close all the businesses down, everywhere.

"It’s just been presumed that containment of the spread rather than the care of the sick is the only way forward. "

Well if x% infected need a hospital bed and we have y total hospital beds its pretty simple math , you literally can't care for the sick and the death toll rises (and since the hospitals are overwhelmed , other emergencies dont get triaged)

"...fears that have so far not been justified by any available evidence..."

Except the exponential patient growth and healthcare systems in china and italy being over run in a matter of weeks with mote critically ill people than they could care for?

The proper step would have been screening everyone coming in from hot zones say in mid to late january at the latest? , The cost then would be manageable , some tens of millions in new hires and overtime for newly minted homeland security airport screeners.

Then you would have a database of suspected cases and could have quarantined early on.

Now that its being spread in communities? , Yeh , you have to over react to make up for the under reaction.

 

[ChrisV]

Shared a crap article that I didn’t know was crap. Sorry. Deleted it.

Lmao, I read that article and I was thinking the whole time "damn this article is brutal... I wonder why she posted this."

 

[MHP368]

Lmao, I read that article and I was thinking the whole time "damn this article is brutal... I wonder why she posted this."

Heres a link worth sharing

 

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[Fox]

So it seems the game plan by most countries is to lock everything down and stop the rapid spread.

The problem I am looking at is 1/2 months down the line...

Let's say we are all under quarantine and numbers are steady/dropping - you still can't end the quarantine. The numbers would only jump back up again. It is a stalemate.

The only way to return to normal is:
- either everyone has been exposed and we know now who can get sick/is immune
- it gets to summer and the spread slows down/stops (if that happens)
- some kinda treatment (probably 1-2 years)

It is hard to know which one of those is likely to happen first.

The big issue then is most people don't have the savings/supplies to just hang around in their house for weeks/months on end. "Work from home" also doesn't fly for a lot of industries.

I think it will be interesting to see what happens in the countries that went into quarantine first - do they continue or do they let people go back out and the numbers go back up.

It's a tough choice for a government - you can't have everyone staying at home for weeks > it isn't sustainable. You stop the first problem but you are building up to a lot more.

It is a choice of immediate health care failure or mounting economic failure.

I think if it really comes down to it you just got to let a lot of people get sick rather than everyone run out of food and money. Sounds harsh but if you play this out over the next 1/2 months I don't see any other choice.

- to get numbers to drop they will tell everyone to stay away from each other
- so numbers stabilize
- but it is still there and still contagious
- the first few weeks of this can be sustained but for how long is that feasible?
- then what...?

It will be interesting to see what happens with the countries who have had it longest - that is what I am watching.

I think a massive thing to try secure for yourself for now is a first aid kit and a book on how to use it. Chances are under any of the above scenarios that the health care system is totally swamped for months.

 

[farmer79]

Thanks for all your posts Gilman. I am interested in your last post on oxygen concentrators. I know nothing about them but want to be prepared. So that is a sleep apnea machine right? Is the idea that if someone contracted the virus, they would use that to help them breath? For a non medical professional is this a useful tool if you are able to get to a hospital?
My parents are late 60’s early 70’s and are relatively healthy although my father had a stent put in a few years ago so I am a little worried about them. Thanks again.

 

[Kraelog]

Well here in Belgium the entire country will be in lockdown starting this evening.

- No Schools
- No Events of any kind are allowed
- No Bars/restaurants
- No shops aside from basic groceries
- Public transport will still be there is but heavily discouraged
- Government calls for all business to let everyone work at home
- Government tells everyone to socially isolate themselves.

We have around 300 reported cases so hopefully this is still in time to slow the epidemic down to manageable levels.

 

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[biggeemac]

So it seems the game plan by most countries is to lock everything down and stop the rapid spread.

The problem I am looking at is 1/2 months down the line...

Let's say we are all under quarantine and numbers are steady/dropping - you still can't end the quarantine. The numbers would only jump back up again. It is a stalemate.

The only way to return to normal is:
- either everyone has been exposed and we know now who can get sick/is immune
- it gets to summer and the spread slows down/stops (if that happens)
- some kinda treatment (probably 1-2 years)

It is hard to know which one of those is likely to happen first.

The big issue then is most people don't have the savings/supplies to just hang around in their house for weeks/months on end. "Work from home" also doesn't fly for a lot of industries.

I think it will be interesting to see what happens in the countries that went into quarantine first - do they continue or do they let people go back out and the numbers go back up.

It's a tough choice for a government - you can't have everyone staying at home for weeks > it isn't sustainable. You stop the first problem but you are building up to a lot more.

It is a choice of immediate health care failure or mounting economic failure.

I think if it really comes down to it you just got to let a lot of people get sick rather than everyone run out of food and money. Sounds harsh but if you play this out over the next 1/2 months I don't see any other choice.

- to get numbers to drop they will tell everyone to stay away from each other
- so numbers stabilize
- but it is still there and still contagious
- the first few weeks of this can be sustained but for how long is that feasible?
- then what...?

It will be interesting to see what happens with the countries who have had it longest - that is what I am watching.

I think a massive thing to try secure for yourself for now is a first aid kit and a book on how to use it. Chances are under any of the above scenarios that the health care system is totally swapped for months.

The idea is to flatten the curve enough to NOT overwhelm the healthcare system. It will be disruptive for a while, and it may go in phases, but it makes a significant difference in the number of cases and ultimately, fatality rate. Flattening the curve was well modeled and incorporated after the Spanish flu outbreak. I don't know much of the details of the model, but the government isn't flying blind using this procedure.

Trying a brute force method as you suggested would have a pretty unfortunate outcome.....far worse than the social distancing and shutting down gatherings and businesses.

Do some reading on the Spanish flu.

 

[Mammoth]

Figured I'd go to Superstore late at night to avoid the lines & crowds....
I was wrong.

I usually stand in line for about 2 minutes. Tonight took 25. Everyone's carts were overflowing...it was interesting to see what other people stock up on: coca cola, waffles, chicken nuggets....you know, the food that'll strengthen your immune system.

Bread was cleaned out along with dried beans, and a lot of rice.

Our cashier kept wiping her forehead and sniffling with tons of phlegm brewing....washed my hands profusely when I got home.




P.S. Chilliwack, by the way

 

[Fox]

The idea is to flatten the curve enough to NOT overwhelm the healthcare system. It will be disruptive for a while, and it may go in phases, but it makes a significant difference in the number of cases and ultimately, fatality rate. Flattening the curve was well modeled and incorporated after the Spanish flu outbreak. I don't know much of the details of the model, but the government isn't flying blind using this procedure.

Trying a brute force method as you suggested would have a pretty unfortunate outcome.....far worse than the social distancing and shutting down gatherings and businesses.

Do some reading on the Spanish flu.

I didn't "suggest" anything - I am saying they probably won't have a choice after another 1/2 months. A whole country can't stay indoors for half a year.

I get why they are doing it but it doesn't work as a long term strategy if it is still around and still contagious.

Do some reading on the Spanish flu.

I have. What is your point?

 

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[Tommo]

Not to be harsh but this will make people prioritize what is actually and genuinely important in their lives, health is paramount and without good health you don't have much. Good for the snowflakes to have real worries if it's OK to say that.
I am high risk if/when I get the virus - old, had asthma as a young adult, contracted pneumonia in China years ago and had treatment there for it. In China you have to pay for everything in hospital before you get it.
There are murmurings in the newspapers about not treating older folk if the healthcare system is overloaded.
I hope all forum members stay healthy and act wisely, good luck in the coming months to all you guys and keep a sense of humour because it strengthens the immune system.

 

[biggeemac]

Oregon schools are now closed through the end of the month.

 

[GIlman]

Thanks for all your posts Gilman. I am interested in your last post on oxygen concentrators. I know nothing about them but want to be prepared. So that is a sleep apnea machine right? Is the idea that if someone contracted the virus, they would use that to help them breath? For a non medical professional is this a useful tool if you are able to get to a hospital?
My parents are late 60’s early 70’s and are relatively healthy although my father had a stent put in a few years ago so I am a little worried about them. Thanks again.

Disclaimer: none of the following is intended as medical advice for any particular patient or as a recommendation for treatment or diagnosis. I am not your physician and anything contained here is not intended as individualized medical advice nor should it be construed to be advice for any one person or medical condition in particular. Consult your physician or seek other medical advice from qualified medical providers who know and have access to your or your families complete medical records and history. Never rely on information on the internet to make medical decisions, including this. All medical decisions must be made between you and your doctor, and I am not your doctor.

A sleeping machine as you refer to is a CPaP or biPaP machine. These just increase the pressure of the air coming out, but the concentration of molecules in the Normal air is about 20% oxygen and about 80% nitrogen. CPaP/bipap doesn’t alter oxygen concentration. Your lungs don’t use nitrogen

what an oxygen concentrator does is take normal air and strip the majority of the nitrogen out, so the air delivered is near 100% pure oxygen. If lungs are not working well, proving high concentration of oxygen allows someone to get more oxygen into the blood.

nasal cannula can’t deliver as much oxygen, because you breath around it and from your mouth which mixes the pure oxygen from the machine with normal 20% oxygen normal air. But they are are much more comfortable

I also bought a couple finger pulse oximeters, this allows me to track how much oxygen is needed to keep blood oxygen high >93%.

The non rebreather masks ensure each breath is basically 100% oxygen. If using a non rebreather mask u need high flow rates. That’s why I bought the 10l/min oxygen concentrator model. There are cheaper models that produce less oxygen per minute such as 5l/min. These are still good, just don’t provide as much oxygen if needed.

First and foremost, I’m just sharing what I am doing. I’m not suggesting anyone else do the same, I’m not in a position to evaluate or make any such recommendation for anyone.

The reason I bought this is if the hospitals run out of capacity and start turning people away, then I have an option. From what I’ve read (no personal experience obviously) 15% of Severe cases rely on oxygen. 5% of cases are critical and require even more such as ICU care. Having O2 should allow me to cover >95% of situations if I’m in a bind.

It’s important to understand in the hospital they do a lot more than just give oxygen such as check labs, give IV’s and monitor to make sure people don’t need more advanced care. So this may not be an appropriate solution for a lot of people, but Italy is literally turning people away according to reports. And this is a solid backup if shit hits the fan.

 

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[Inimitable]

Thank you for presenting the issue from the perspective of someone who is at considerable risk, and you are not elderly. I empathize with you because I understand the every day trials of a person in your position.

You have emboldened me to present the perspective of someone very seriously at risk. I am 81 years of age, suffering from heart disease, and a respiratory illness known as Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD.) In my case COPD is comprised of 4 serious respiratory diseases.

Despite the outlook expressed by skeptics, and those who will deny its existence until they or a family member contract the illness, Covid19 is a real and present danger to me. I am not a disposable burden on society. I still contribute, leading an active life both mentally and physically. I continue public speaking as a member of my church. I still provide free counseling services to people in distress. I also enjoy providing a lot of help to members of this forum.

My whole life has been a struggle to survive, and being one of those strange people who self medicates on what people love to call Quack Remedies because they are not made by Big Pharma, I have killed off (proven by pathology) a multiple drug resistant bacterium that I picked up in hospital. The treatment I used is also fatal to viruses and will be my first line of defence should some person careless about their personal hygiene, or who doesn't cover their face when coughing or sneezing passes on a virus that they doubt exists.

Walter
P.S. I know from many past experiences that I will encounter strong resistance and ridicule from doctors and nurses. They act in much the same way as religious zealots.

Thank you for sharing your struggles. If you are willing to share, I'd love to hear more about the remedies you've found helpful.

 

[ChickenHawk]

This guy I know, his ex-wife is mocking him for stocking up and "falling for the pandemic." Yup, she believes that a "pandemic" is when people panic shop. As in "panic-demic."

I wish I could say that I'm joking.

 

[Inimitable]

Oregon schools are now closed through the end of the month.

I'm expecting (hoping for) a similar announcement here in NC tomorrow. I'm so sad for my daughter and all the other children who will suffer from the closures (my 5-year-old barely understands germs and has been so excited for her St. Patrick's Day party next week that I was supposed to help with), but it's a necessary step to hopefully slow this down.

I usually stand in line for about 2 minutes. Tonight took 25. Everyone's carts were overflowing...it was interesting to see what other people stock up on: coca cola, waffles, chicken nuggets....you know, the food that'll strengthen your immune system.

I'm laughing (so I don't cry) because my parents are this way. My mom can't seem to get it through her head that she might not be able to get food from the store at some point. She stocked up on about a week's worth of Coca-Cola, candy, cookies, and steak. I'm worried for them, but nothing I say gets through.

 

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[lowtek]

So it seems the game plan by most countries is to lock everything down and stop the rapid spread.

The problem I am looking at is 1/2 months down the line...

Let's say we are all under quarantine and numbers are steady/dropping - you still can't end the quarantine. The numbers would only jump back up again. It is a stalemate.

The only way to return to normal is:
- either everyone has been exposed and we know now who can get sick/is immune
- it gets to summer and the spread slows down/stops (if that happens)
- some kinda treatment (probably 1-2 years)

It is hard to know which one of those is likely to happen first.

The big issue then is most people don't have the savings/supplies to just hang around in their house for weeks/months on end. "Work from home" also doesn't fly for a lot of industries.

I think it will be interesting to see what happens in the countries that went into quarantine first - do they continue or do they let people go back out and the numbers go back up.

It's a tough choice for a government - you can't have everyone staying at home for weeks > it isn't sustainable. You stop the first problem but you are building up to a lot more.

It is a choice of immediate health care failure or mounting economic failure.

I think if it really comes down to it you just got to let a lot of people get sick rather than everyone run out of food and money. Sounds harsh but if you play this out over the next 1/2 months I don't see any other choice.

- to get numbers to drop they will tell everyone to stay away from each other
- so numbers stabilize
- but it is still there and still contagious
- the first few weeks of this can be sustained but for how long is that feasible?
- then what...?

It will be interesting to see what happens with the countries who have had it longest - that is what I am watching.

I think a massive thing to try secure for yourself for now is a first aid kit and a book on how to use it. Chances are under any of the above scenarios that the health care system is totally swapped for months.

At some point we're going to do what the Chinese did.

Accept that some people are going to die, and move on with life.

Mitigation steps like wearing masks in public and doing away with handshakes will be the norm, but yeah... just stoic acceptance of a new way of life.

Edit also, at some point we'll have enough people exposed that herd immunity will kick in. From what I understand, it's something like 75 - 85% of the population needs exposure.

 

[Fox]

At some point we're going to do what the Chinese did.

Accept that some people are going to die, and move on with life.

Mitigation steps like wearing masks in public and doing away with handshakes will be the norm, but yeah... just stoic acceptance of a new way of life.

Edit also, at some point we'll have enough people exposed that herd immunity will kick in. From what I understand, it's something like 75 - 85% of the population needs exposure.

Ya, I think so too. Again this isn't what I want but if you look ahead it seems like the way things will play out.

- "Everyone indoors" is not a solution, it only buys you time.
- IF it is highly contagious (definitely seems to be) then once people come back out you are back to square one anyway.
- You can't keep people indoors for more than a few weeks, even with food supplied (that is a huge task) I don't think many people could handle it. Eventually, any government just has to let people back out and deal with this head-on.

I would say over the next month we will see this play out in places like Italy.

The other main option I see is a half-way approach of only letting essential businesses/jobs operate for a while but that isn't a great solution either.

An interesting thing is with the Spanish flu is that the worst month was very quickly followed by the "best" month. Once it reaches max levels it will very quickly fade out with no new people who haven't been exposed yet.

We will probably see peak panic over the next month or two and then a quick return to normal. Every area will have to go through the intital-spread>isolate>contain>return-to-normal phases.

I am busy working on the business but the main precautions I have taken around 1-2 months of food supply*** for the peak panic period and some medical gear to avoid a hospital if anything happens.

***I live in a foreign country with no strong ties to anyone to rely on so I would rather overreact than be left needing anything.

 

[Supa]

They closed a second school here already this morning

They just announced that all schools, kindergartens, and the like in Bavaria (south of Germany) will be closed for the next 5 weeks.

 

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[Lex DeVille]

I don't think many people could handle it

I knew it! Secret plan to get rid of extroverts!

 

[Madame Peccato]

I knew it! Secret plan to get rid of extroverts!

Finally! My time to shine