The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

[GIlman]

As MJ's quote goes, "would you rather be right or be rich"? Same principle applies here, "would you rather be right, or be severely ill (or worse) with the chance of harming your own family members and friends?"

The market doesn't care how badly you want to make money, just like the market doesn't care about your opinions of the virus. You might think the virus is nothing, but millions of others do.

South Korea has been extremely prudent in getting ahead of the virus compared to most countries. They were more prepared than anyone to face a virus of this magnitude. You have to compare apples to apples.

South Korea has ran 740x the amount of C0VlD-19 tests per capita compared to the US. You don't think this stat has anything to do with how "well" Korea is handling this?

Actually, no...I don’t think it has anything to do with how SK is handling it compared to other countries, at least at the level of the patient

it’s very smart to be testing, it picks up early cases and can help slow the spread by limiting their exposure and risk of infecting other people. SK is in the first inning right now, look at recovered vs dead and the picture is anything but certain, it’s around 19% fatality rate FYI.

But this is an artifact and needlessly high at the moment because the time to full recovery appears to be long, 30 days or so, but very vulnerable people will succumb early on, this the v ery high dead to recovered.

That’s why we need time stratified cohorts, too many newly sick, the most vulnerable die quickly, many will survive but it takes a long time for them to be considered a survivor.

However for those infected, the individual patient, there is no treatment, cure, etc that knowing early can give you a head start or a leg up. Their mortality numbers are and will be a function of the number infected and the type of risk factor of the individual patient. Lastly will be the availability of medical resources.

reports out of Italy appear they are triaging a mass casualty situation. Basically people are grouped into 3 designations. Critical unlikely to live, serious/critical likely to live, and stable. The critical unlikely to live do not receive the limited resource and you shift your focus to care and use resources to those that require advanced care and are the most likely to survive.

Basically you begin to allocate resources not to the sickest, but to the healthiest that still needs advanced care to survive. For example two people require a ventilator, both would die without, the least sick of the two is given thee ventilator.

I have been through these situations before, think mass casualty situation with very large number of injured. It’s a very different medical system than people are accustomed to. The decision making is totally flipped from what you see normally in the health care setting (I.e. most time and resources to the sickest). Italy appears to have entered this phase of care.

 

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[MetalGear]

Actually, no...I don’t think it has anything to do with how SK is handling it compared to other countries, at least at the level of the patient

it’s very smart to be testing, it picks up early cases and can help slow the spread by limiting their exposure and risk of infecting other people. SK is in the first inning right now, look at recovered vs dead and the picture is anything but certain, it’s around 19% fatality rate FYI.

But this is an artifact and needlessly high at the moment because the time to full recovery appears to be long, 30 days or so, but very vulnerable people will succumb early on, this the v ery high dead to recovered.

That’s why we need time stratified cohorts, too many newly sick, the most vulnerable die quickly, many will survive but it takes a long time for them to be considered a survivor.

However for those infected, the individual patient, there is no treatment, cure, etc that knowing early can give you a head start or a leg up. Their mortality numbers are and will be a function of the number infected and the type of risk factor of the individual patient. Lastly will be the availability of medical resources.

reports out of Italy appear they are triaging a mass casualty situation. Basically people are grouped into 3 designations. Critical unlikely to live, serious/critical likely to live, and stable. The critical unlikely to live do not receive the limited resource and you shift your focus to care and use resources to those that require advanced care and are the most likely to survive.

Basically you begin to allocate resources not to the sickest, but to the healthiest that still needs advanced care to survive. For example two people require a ventilator, both would die without, the least sick of the two is given thee ventilator.

I have been through these situations before, think mass casualty situation with very large number of injured. It’s a very different medical system than people are accustomed to. The decision making is totally flipped from what you see normally in the health care setting (I.e. most time and resources to the sickest). Italy appears to have entered this phase of care.

This - healthcare capacity

 

[Ing]

Maybe interesting:

Your Body builds antibodys after about a week. So than, when the rna of the virus hasn’t changed, the virus is soo destroy.

C Virus is slower than our body

HIV for example is faster changing the rna than our body can build antibodies

So our luck is the slowness of C Virus.

 

[loop101]

South Korea’s coronavirus infection rate falls without citywide lockdowns

South Korea has reported a drop in the rate of new C0VlD-19 cases, attributing this to mass testing, better communication and the use of technology.

www.scmp.com

told you guys - nothingburger.

happening canceled

You repeatedly post that you think people are over-reacting to the Coronavirus threat. Just because some people still don't agree with you, doesn't mean they need to hear it again. And again. Do you plan to say anything else? If not, I will wish you well and put you on Ignore.

 

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[Ernman]

Thank you for presenting the issue from the perspective of someone who is at considerable risk, and you are not elderly. I empathize with you because I understand the every day trials of a person in your position.

You have emboldened me to present the perspective of someone very seriously at risk. I am 81 years of age, suffering from heart disease, and a respiratory illness known as Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD.) In my case COPD is comprised of 4 serious respiratory diseases.

Despite the outlook expressed by skeptics, and those who will deny its existence until they or a family member contract the illness, Covid19 is a real and present danger to me. I am not a disposable burden on society. I still contribute, leading an active life both mentally and physically. I continue public speaking as a member of my church. I still provide free counseling services to people in distress. I also enjoy providing a lot of help to members of this forum.

My whole life has been a struggle to survive, and being one of those strange people who self medicates on what people love to call Quack Remedies because they are not made by Big Pharma, I have killed off (proven by pathology) a multiple drug resistant bacterium that I picked up in hospital. The treatment I used is also fatal to viruses and will be my first line of defence should some person careless about their personal hygiene, or who doesn't cover their face when coughing or sneezing passes on a virus that they doubt exists.

Walter
P.S. I know from many past experiences that I will encounter strong resistance and ridicule from doctors and nurses. They act in much the same way as religious zealots.

Be aware of your surroundings and stay safe Walter.

 

[Ernman]

This - healthcare capacity

View attachment 30973

This is a very important graphic to understand. IF, through a combination of activities, the infection curve can be flattened so we don't exceed healthcare system capacity, then we get through this with fewer deaths and lower impact. Healthcare capacity is beds, respirators, ICU's, etc. So the goal of an organized response is to flatten the infection curve.

 

[kgf]

reports out of Italy appear they are triaging a mass casualty situation. Basically people are grouped into 3 designations. Critical unlikely to live, serious/critical likely to live, and stable. The critical unlikely to live do not receive the limited resource and you shift your focus to care and use resources to those that require advanced care and are the most likely to survive

Unless you increase the equipment available. That is what Italy is doing right now.
4.218 new ventilators have been bought. 416 have already been delivered, 200 more will be delivered in 4-7 days, 886 in 8-15 days, and the balance in 16-30 days. Those go along with other medical equipments needed to sustain the demand for IC.
As we speak the emergency is at the highest level so far but not at its peak yet.

 

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[MJ DeMarco]

This is a very important graphic to understand. IF, through a combination of activities, the infection curve can be flattened so we don't exceed healthcare system capacity, then we get through this with fewer deaths and lower impact. Healthcare capacity is beds, respirators, ICU's, etc. So the goal of an organized response is to flatten the infection curve.

Yes, which is why I don't think an overreaction is a bad thing. More hand washing, less public coughing, more awareness... it can help achieve those objectives.

Ironically, a perceived overreaction could keep this at bay, at which point, people will do a "told ya so" with respect to the overreaction. "Told ya it was a nothing burger!!!" Maybe, but maybe the public awareness (and its overreaction) is what helped make it a nothingburger. Interesting dichotomy.

 

[GIlman]

Just left the hospital. There is security at every exit. Zero visitors are being allowed in, patients and staff only. This is a huge 800 bed hospital. This is not in Maricopa

 

[GIlman]

Unless you increase the equipment available. That is what Italy is doing right now.
4.218 new ventilators have been bought. 416 have already been delivered, 200 more will be delivered in 4-7 days, 886 in 8-15 days, and the balance in 16-30 days. Those go along with other medical equipments needed to sustain the demand for IC.
As we speak the emergency is at the highest level so far but not at its peak yet.

hopefully they can produce ventilators at a rate sufficient to supply demand around the world. In that regard being an early country or early patient has its advantages. There is slack in the system to pull from.

 

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[Vigilante]

This forum and this thread has been the best source of consolidated news anywhere on this subject. In my opinion this is an interesting new chapter for this forum. Absent of a few dumbasses the give and take has been solid.

 

[ChrisV]

This forum and this thread has been the best source of consolidated news anywhere on this subject. In my opinion this is an interesting new chapter for this forum. Absent of a few dumbasses the give and take has been solid.

Seriously. This thread has been a goldmine of information. I'm proud of everyone here for doing a significantly better job than the News or Facebook (which is essentially a shitstorm of hand washing memes at this point.)

My friend Dr Wetsman's Twitter feed is also a goldmine of information:

https://twitter.com/addictiondocMD

 

[Thoelt53]

Thank you for presenting the issue from the perspective of someone who is at considerable risk, and you are not elderly. I empathize with you because I understand the every day trials of a person in your position.

You have emboldened me to present the perspective of someone very seriously at risk. I am 81 years of age, suffering from heart disease, and a respiratory illness known as Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD.) In my case COPD is comprised of 4 serious respiratory diseases.

Despite the outlook expressed by skeptics, and those who will deny its existence until they or a family member contract the illness, Covid19 is a real and present danger to me. I am not a disposable burden on society. I still contribute, leading an active life both mentally and physically. I continue public speaking as a member of my church. I still provide free counseling services to people in distress. I also enjoy providing a lot of help to members of this forum.

My whole life has been a struggle to survive, and being one of those strange people who self medicates on what people love to call Quack Remedies because they are not made by Big Pharma, I have killed off (proven by pathology) a multiple drug resistant bacterium that I picked up in hospital. The treatment I used is also fatal to viruses and will be my first line of defence should some person careless about their personal hygiene, or who doesn't cover their face when coughing or sneezing passes on a virus that they doubt exists.

Walter
P.S. I know from many past experiences that I will encounter strong resistance and ridicule from doctors and nurses. They act in much the same way as religious zealots.

Thanks for sharing Walter. I knew you were older than the majority of this forum, but I was unaware of your health status.

I wish you luck and will pray for you. You’re a good, old school man. Just the type the world needs today more than ever.

I am also interested in “quack remedies” as there are some interesting studies that support quite a few of them. Would you mind sharing yours?

 

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[ChrisV]

And we are getting crap like this from the House physician.

"The House physician was asked in the Democratic caucus about whether members should be concerned if they see a colleague who was supposed to be self-quarantining at the congressional gym. The doctor responded by describing to lawmakers a spectrum of contact and how concerning it should be, according to two members in the room.

Here are some activities that are not high risks, according to the physician:

• A quick greeting or selfie
• A short five-minute meeting with someone who isn't showing symptoms yet but tests positive"

How the f*ck can a short five-minute meeting be ok? A quick greeting?

This right here tells me that the government is definitely trying to downplay this. Can you imagine your normal doctor telling you that you could not contaminate someone if you meet with them if you have a cold or flu? Every doctor would tell you that you have a chance of getting them sick.

But the white house doctor is like, no big deal. Go out and talk to them.

I'd love to see a video of him talking to someone who tested positive!

Yea that is batshit insane. if a 5 minute conversation won't spread it, then how the shit is it spreading?

This virus is extremely contagious.

How Bad Will the Coronavirus Outbreak Get? Here Are 6 Key Factors (Published 2020)

Here’s what early research says about how the pathogen behaves and the factors that will determine how far it will spread.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Drive2Riches]

The nature of the spread and the rhetoric around it has me concerned.

Locally, the Governor (WA) cited some numbers which in six weeks, if reached, means that for week seven the infections will be at 250,000 people. This is how exponential works.

Today from CNBC:

"And if you do the math, it gets very disturbing. ... If it's 1,000 (infections) today, in seven to eight weeks there could be 64,000 people infected in the state of Washington if we don't somehow slow down this epidemic. And in the next week it could be 120,000, and in the next week a quarter of a million."

Deaths for that number at a rate of (tiny) 0.1% is 250 people. But if the death rate is more like 3% of those who are infected, then the number of people who die from this JUST IN WASHINGTON alone is going to be 7,500 dead -- within TWO MONTHS from today.

The Evergreen State has 162 confirmed coronavirus cases across eight counties as of Monday night, but infectious disease experts say the actual number could be closer to 1,000 or more, he said.

"Confirmed" means that they actually did a test. So statistically speaking when comparing untested people having symptoms to confirmed cases, 1,000 sounds about right.

This from a source:

In his opening remarks at the March 3 media briefing on C0VlD-19, WHO Director-General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus stated:
“Globally, about 3.4% of reported C0VlD-19 cases have died. By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected.”

 

[Tommo]

You need to be extra careful. You are exactly who can get hit the hardest by this virus.

the death rate for young HEALTHY people is comparable to the flu maybe 0.2% or less. But if you have a weak immune system you need to be careful.

i would pull my kid out of school with a dr’s note some how.

luckily the virus should dissipate with the normal flu season so should be ok by may

Meanwhile in the Southern hemisphere it's Autumn so not ok.

 

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[Drive2Riches]

Seriously. This thread has been a goldmine of information. I'm proud of everyone here for doing a significantly better job than the News or Facebook (which is essentially a shitstorm of hand washing memes at this point.)

This forum and this thread has been the best source of consolidated news anywhere on this subject. In my opinion this is an interesting new chapter for this forum. Absent of a few dumbasses the give and take has been solid.

TFF has been shaped over the years to provide VALUE. I don't know where else to go for this kind of thing?

 

[Mckenzie]

This will be the year of "Luxe Bidet" .

I just went to a plumbing store to buy an extra parts to connect my newly purchased bidet, but the plumber/ shop said don’t do it because if the nozzle is not cleaned after every use, germs will be flushed back into the clean water system. Is that right ? had you guys heard about this before?

 

[ChrisV]

Chemistry professor on why soap and water are much better than disinfectant and your absolute best defense against any virus:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1236549305189597189

View: https://twitter.com/PalliThordarson/status/1236549305189597189

 

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[BizyDad]

As much as I don't want to talk about freelancing right now, I can't help but think about how this might change the landscape of online work/business. Many will probably realize the need for the ability to make money from home and businesses will be forced into a trial work-from-home test run (potentially realizing how much money they save on things like electricity, water etc. and also potential productivity improvements).

This post might be historical. We might be looking at this post a couple year in the future like "holy shit." It's honestly baffled me how many companies are wasting time, energy, gas to have employees drive to essentially the same computer they have at home.

I don't know about this guys. The benefits have been there all this time. Yet several companies have tried it and undid the effort. I think you are underestimating the power of having people gather in the same place.

Pros and cons to both sides for sure. There is no right or wrong.

But I think as long as boomers run mega corps, you won't see too much change. The shift will happen for real when millennials run mega corps, imo.

 

[Thoelt53]

I just went to a plumbing store to buy an extra parts to connect my newly purchased bidet, but the plumber/ shop said don’t do it because if the nozzle is not cleaned after every use, germs will be flushed back into the clean water system. Is that right ? had you guys heard about this before?

I’m not sure what that means. It’s not like you’re inserting the bidet’s spout into your anus....

And the water is flowing until you‘re done and shut it off.

I would imagine that if there was some staph a$$-infection one might get from using a bidet, the world would have learned about it long ago.

That being said, if you have and use a bidet, you should probably clean it regularly as you would a toilet.

 

[biggeemac]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZFhjMQrVts

I think this guy is as credible about the coming storm as any i've seen so far, without blowing smoke up anyone's a$$. After watching his full interview with Joe Rogan, here is what I got out of his message.....

1. Hygiene/sanitizing is great, but its only gonna help to a certain degree
2. This thing is airborn. You only need to be breathing the same oxygen as another person who is infected. You can catch it pretty easily from someone who has no symptoms.
3. We are very unprepared, and the best thing we can do at this point is suppress the number of infections and hope that our healthcare system can absorb the number of incoming sick people.
4. Obesity will be one of Americas top "pre-existing conditions" that helps this virus claim many lives
5. Conservatively speaking, this disease could require over 48 million hospitalizations, 96 million cases occurring, and could result in over 480,000 deaths in the next 3-7 months.

 

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[Thoelt53]

I think this guy is as credible about the coming storm as any i've seen so far, without blowing smoke up anyone's a$$. After watching his full interview with Joe Rogan, here is what I got out of his message.....

1. Hygiene/sanitizing is great, but its only gonna help to a certain degree
2. This thing is airborn. You only need to be breathing the same oxygen as another person who is infected. You can catch it pretty easily from someone who has no symptoms.
3. We are very unprepared, and the best thing we can do at this point is suppress the number of infections and hope that our healthcare system can absorb the number of incoming sick people.
4. Obesity will be one of Americas top "pre-existing conditions" that helps this virus claim many lives
5. Conservatively speaking, this disease could require over 48 million hospitalizations, 96 million cases occurring, and could result in over 480,000 deaths in the next 3-7 months.

I won’t be able to watch be video until tomorrow.

Regarding your fifth point, are those figures his assessment of worldwide cases or strictly American cases?

 

[loop101]

But I think as long as boomers run mega corps, you won't see too much change. The shift will happen for real when millennials run mega corps, imo.

This coronavirus might expedite that shift.

 

[GIlman]

I won’t be able to watch be video until tomorrow.

Regarding your fifth point, are those figures his assessment of worldwide cases or strictly American cases?

exponential growth with a 5 day current doubling time. Assuming we have say 4,000 cases today (largely undiagnosed and found be far in excess of this).

+5 days = 8,000
+10 days = 16,000
+15 days = 32,000
+20 days = 64,000
+25 days = 128,000
+30 days = 256,000
+35 days = 512,000
+40 days = 1,240,000 cases.

this is why places are quarantining by force. They are trying to increase the doubling time. Say you double the doubling time to 10 days. At 40 days you would be at 64,000 cases as opposed to 1,240,000. The goal here is to slow the spread at all cost.

the issue then becomes, when and how does normal life resume. Because if you just go back to normal the doubling time goes back to 5 days.

once quarantine sets in, I don’t see it being lifted until there is a vaccine to halt the doubling. because if you do, the cycle just kicks into high gear again.

 

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[lowtek]

exponential growth with a 5 day current doubling time. Assuming we have say 4,000 cases today (largely undiagnosed and found be far in excess of this).

+5 days = 8,000
+10 days = 16,000
+15 days = 32,000
+20 days = 64,000
+25 days = 128,000
+30 days = 256,000
+35 days = 512,000
+40 days = 1,240,000 cases.

this is why places are quarantining by force. They are trying to increase the doubling time. Say you double the doubling time to 10 days. At 40 days you would be at 64,000 cases as opposed to 1,240,000. The goal here is to slow the spread at all cost.

the issue then becomes, when and how does normal life resume. Because if you just go back to normal the doubling time goes back to 5 days.

once quarantine sets in, I don’t see it being lifted until there is a vaccine to halt the doubling. because if you do, the cycle just kicks into high gear again.

Yes. This is what people do not grasp. Life as we knew it is going to change drastically, for the foreseeable future. I'm hopeful that a vaccine can be developed, but I'm not counting on it. My intuition (take that for whatever it's worth) is that this virus has more curve balls in store for us.

At the very minimum wearing masks in public (for everyone) is going to be the norm.

 

[Thoelt53]

Chemistry professor on why soap and water are much better than disinfectant and your absolute best defense against any virus:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1236549305189597189

View: https://twitter.com/PalliThordarson/status/1236549305189597189

I believe this applies to bacteria as well. Viruses and bacteria alike adhere to the lipids on our skin. Fat-dissolving soaps break down this lipid bilayer and allow us to rinse them away.

I might be wrong about the exact mechanics here, but this is how I’ve understood it. My knowledge is limited to long ago high school biology 1 and 2, and an anatomy and physiology class.

I may also be wrong in this regard, but as far as I know, the reason hand sanitizer is so effective against bacteria is because the alcohol breaks down the cell membrane, causing it to rapidly absorb the water content of the solution. The rapid water intake destroys the bacterium.

I haven’t looked it up, but I wonder how hand sanitizer protects againsts viruses considering they are non-living DNA/RNA structures. Perhaps by destroying their protein capsule? I’m curious to here from someone more knowledgeable.

 

[ChrisV]

I'm hopeful that a vaccine can be developed, but I'm not counting on it.

They're saying that the vaccine is going to take at least 18 months to develop. By then this will be mostly over. Well, unless it mutates. Then we have issues.

Conservatively speaking, this disease could require over 48 million hospitalizations, 96 million cases occurring, and could result in over 480,000 deaths in the next 3-7 months.

I'm trying to understand this because South Korea has had 53 deaths with a population of 53 million. China has a population of 1.5 billion with 3,000 deaths. Considering both of those places are slowing down, I don't understand how we're predicting half a million deaths. I'm not being sarcastic, i'm genuinely curious.

 

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[Thoelt53]

Yes. This is what people do not grasp. Life as we knew it is going to change drastically, for the foreseeable future. I'm hopeful that a vaccine can be developed, but I'm not counting on it. My intuition (take that for whatever it's worth) is that this virus has more curve balls in store for us.

At the very minimum wearing masks in public (for everyone) is going to be the norm.

If you can get them...

I previously worked in a metal fab shop so I have a few N95 masks and a P100 respirator laying around.

I have some connections at an ACE hardware store. I’m going to have to see what I can get out of their warehouses just in case.

I’ve said in previous posts that I don’t think the virus is a threat to most of us healthy, younger folk according to preliminary stats (Diamond Princess and South Korea). However, it would suck to find out there was a more lethal mutation and not have protection.

 

[Rivoli]

The nature of the spread and the rhetoric around it has me concerned.

Locally, the Governor (WA) cited some numbers which in six weeks, if reached, means that for week seven the infections will be at 250,000 people. This is how exponential works.

Today from CNBC:


Deaths for that number at a rate of (tiny) 0.1% is 250 people. But if the death rate is more like 3% of those who are infected, then the number of people who die from this JUST IN WASHINGTON alone is going to be 7,500 dead -- within TWO MONTHS from today.



"Confirmed" means that they actually did a test. So statistically speaking when comparing untested people having symptoms to confirmed cases, 1,000 sounds about right.

This from a source:

Lol

China first case was in November
it took it 4 months to get to 80,000
mind you it was during the LARGEST MIGRATION OF PEOPLE IN 2020 Chinese New Year where everyone gets on trains and planes
in a denser population
yet some how 250,000 people will get infected in Washington In 2 months.

ok