The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

[becks22]

My BIL may have been in contact with someone who recently tested positive. He's in law enforcement so works with the public everyday. It's already scary but it really scares you when it hits this close to home.

 

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[GIlman]

A friend of mine teaches Chinese students online. She has a student in Wuhan who lives in the 32nd floor of an apartment building.

The kid hasn’t been outside since January.

Reports are Wuhan is beginning to return back to work, seems like most people are staying on quarantine though. My big question that will be answered over the next month, is does the disease start to bloom again as they relax the quarantine. and....are they really relaxing the quarantine. It’s really hard to know. @biophase said that he was starting to get suppliers asking if he needed n95 masks, so hopefully that’s a good sign, fingers crossed. But I’m cautious in my optimism.

 

[rollerskates]

I wish people would take this more seriously. Someone can be a carrier before they have symptoms (according to someone I know who definitely would know), so they can be out there killing someone's granny before they even cough once. Stay home. Don't be a granny killer.

As for the third world comment--this really should be said: people should always be prepared to live that way. Not eating bats, but being resourceful and being able to mend clothes, bake bread, grow vegetables. In other words, people should know how to be relatively self sufficient. I don't mean extreme prepping, but definitely being able to get along with very little --I would think this would be a big part of the entrepreneurial journey--what Daymond John calls "The Power of Broke".

 

[Jon L]

Reports are Wuhan is beginning to return back to work, seems like most people are staying on quarantine though. My big question that will be answered over the next month, is does the disease start to bloom again as they relax the quarantine. and....are they really relaxing the quarantine. It’s really hard to know. @biophase said that he was starting to get suppliers asking if he needed n95 masks, so hopefully that’s a good sign, fingers crossed. But I’m cautious in my optimism.

from the Imperial College model, it will start to bloom again unless we have a vaccine:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

 

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[ChrisV]

Fascinating.

Infection Trajectory: See Which Countries are Flattening Their COVID-19 Curve

The number of C0VlD-19 cases around the world continues to grow, but each country has a different infection trajectory. This chart tells the story.

www.visualcapitalist.com

 

[GIlman]

I don’t know if people caught it at the end of trumps conference, but they made reference to New York already running out of ventilators. They also said that there were several previously healthy teen and early 20’s in ICU’s on ventilators.

here is an interesting read from evergreen hospital, the earliest hit hospital and what is happening there.

A Rare Look Inside the Hospital Where 15 Coronavirus Patients Have Died (Published 2020)

A suburban hospital in Kirkland, Wash., has faced the brunt of the coronavirus outbreak. Here is their story.

www.nytimes.com

Our new Normal.

 

[razor]

from the Imperial College model, it will start to bloom again unless we have a vaccine:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

That paper is interesting, but they can't account for the world coming together to fight this. Things like ventilator production being ramped up, other antivirals being tested, massive testing/tracking similar to South Korea, etc. We can lower the spike of cases with social distancing, and we can simultaneously raise the capacity and effectiveness of healthcare. A vaccine is not the only thing that can save us.

The reality could be that we quarantine for a month and then roll out other medicine/testing/tracking procedures that are able to keep the spread manageable without the draconian measures. I'm hopeful that we are just buying time to get a little more structure in place so we can loosen the reigns, but time will tell.

 

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[Trevor Kuntz]

Bad news from Italy today:
C0VlD-19 has infected 2,629 health workers, or 8.3% of the total (more than twice the percentage in China), as of yesterday March 17

In Bergamo (Lombardy region), 118 out of about 600 family doctors (20%) have been infected, and a 65-year-old doctor has died.

If this is like a long war, then this is like losing 8% of your total forces in the opening battle. Not a good sign.

 

[NovaAria]

from the Imperial College model, it will start to bloom again unless we have a vaccine:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

There is a huge difference between China and the UK/US, though. No one would protest whatever policy the Chinese government implements. (Those who do will not live for long anyway, I imagine.)
The same policies in the UK would probably be met with media criticism.
And, no offense to the Americans here, but I imagine that some US citizen will meet any mandatory quarantine with an "I would like to see you try."

 

[GIlman]

This is probably something a lot of people have missed because there is so much to pay attention to, but they are deregulating the medical field allowing doctors and nurses to cross state lines and work with minimal friction, the governors just have to allow it.

nursing, respiratory therapists, and others are being fast tracked. Medical students are being recruited to fill gaps. I’m happy to see they are working to fill the gaps, it’s not the best solution, but it’s the solution we have.

 

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[Jon L]

There is a huge difference between China and the UK/US, though. No one would protest whatever policy the Chinese government implements. (Those who do will not live for long anyway, I imagine.)
The same policies in the UK would probably be met with media criticism.
And, no offense to the Americans here, but I imagine that some US citizen will meet any mandatory quarantine with an "I would like to see you try."

Elon Musk did that ... and he literally got shut down by the sheriff. Most people here in the US will comply. We may have a bad a$$ persona on TV, but we're not completely crazy either.

Sheriff Tells Tesla It's Not as ‘Essential’ as Musk Thinks

Bay Area shelter-in-place: ‘Can I still go out?’ and other questions answered

Shelter-in-place orders were issued Monday for six Bay Area counties.

www.kron4.com

 

[Jon L]

That paper is interesting, but they can't account for the world coming together to fight this. Things like ventilator production being ramped up, other antivirals being tested, massive testing/tracking similar to South Korea, etc. We can lower the spike of cases with social distancing, and we can simultaneously raise the capacity and effectiveness of healthcare. A vaccine is not the only thing that can save us.

The reality could be that we quarantine for a month and then roll out other medicine/testing/tracking procedures that are able to keep the spread manageable without the draconian measures. I'm hopeful that we are just buying time to get a little more structure in place so we can loosen the reigns, but time will tell.

you're right that they can't account for that stuff, but I think the paper is a good estimate of the baseline. What the paper does do, though, is show what we should be prepared for. People somehow think that quarantines will only be in effect until March 31 here in Bellevue, WA. That's crazy. No way will anything change by Apr 1, and that paper demonstrates that. But, its possible that treatments will start helping and maybe we can improve the 18 month timeline

 

[biggeemac]

This is probably something a lot of people have missed because there is so much to pay attention to, but they are deregulating the medical field allowing doctors and nurses to cross state lines and work with minimal friction, the governors just have to allow it.

nursing, respiratory therapists, and others are being fast tracked. Medical students are being recruited to fill gaps. I’m happy to see they are working to fill the gaps, it’s not the best solution, but it’s the solution we have.

Awesome.....my sister has had a helluva time going from LPN to RN, just because of all the damn obstacles. Glad to see that many are starting to get their heads out of their arses on this one. She is, unfortunately, at ground zero in the Sea/Tac area.

 

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[ChrisV]

As for the third world comment--this really should be said: people should always be prepared to live that way. Not eating bats, but being resourceful and being able to mend clothes, bake bread, grow vegetables. In other words, people should know how to be relatively self sufficient. I don't mean extreme prepping, but definitely being able to get along with very little --I would think this would be a big part of the entrepreneurial journey--what Daymond John calls "The Power of Broke".

Fair enough, but my issue is more with the communist regime that's the root cause of their poverty.

As a metaphor look at Korea. Korea split a while back: Planned Economy North Korea and Free Market South Korea. South Koreans have a per capita income of 40K/yr. North Koreans have a per capita income of $1,800 yr. They're the same damn country. Same culture, same genetics; it's just a matter of if you were on the Free Market side of the dividing line, or the Planned Economy Communist side.



It's as close to a Natural Randomized Control Trial as I've ever seen. Split a country up one into Free Market, one into Planned Market communism and see what happens.

Now, you see the same thing when you compare China with their Free Market neighbors... Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan. All those places are thriving while China essentially runs sweat shops.

China has a rich and incredible history. Martial Arts, Tai chi, Buddhism. The Chinese people are brilliant. There's no reason a people that smart should be living on $8000/yr.

Re: third world country.. China was never part of the third world. Third world countries are poor because of a lack of resources. Second world countries are poor just cuz... communism. China could be pretty damn wealthy if it weren't for that. So I mean, preparedness is good, but I think it's kind of sad when your people have to resort to eating unrefrigerated bat meat in 2020. There's a difference between going hunting because you want to (like Americans do eating venison) and what's going one there.

And I really think we should be talking about this once everything dies down. I really hope that if anything positive comes of this, it's the toppling of the corrupt, abusive government in China.

 

[loop101]

If they mail everyone $700, or $2000, is that really going to help them if they lose their job? Maybe the government should pay their wages through their existing employer, so they keep getting paychecks and get to keep their job. If they lose their job, they will need a lot more than $2000.

 

[WillHurtDontCare]

As for the third world comment--this really should be said: people should always be prepared to live that way. Not eating bats, but being resourceful and being able to mend clothes, bake bread, grow vegetables. In other words, people should know how to be relatively self sufficient.

Most people would feel more fulfilled (not necessarily happier) with humbler means. Even fancy stuff is more fun to get than have, meaning building a business to buy a lambo is the meaningful part.

I'm gonna start buying some vegetable seeds. Any recommendations on what produces calories and can grow under a lot of conditions?

 

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[JAJT]

A bit of Canadian perspective:

- US / Canada border now shut to non-essential travel.
- Trudeau is considering invoking the Emergencies Act (a replacement to the previous War Measures Act) for the 4th time in history. The other three were both world wars and a political hostage situation in the 70's.

Canada is also gearing up a lot of social support:

- Employment insurance is getting beefed up significantly to include those it normally wouldn't and offer larger amounts than normal. I won't go into all the details but this is the meat and potatoes of the plan.
- Child care benefit amounts will be increased
- Student loan interest payments is on hold for 6 months
- Evictions have been put on hold (maybe ontario only, can't recall). This one worries me as I have a rental with a bad tenant. There has been lots of talk of protecting people's home situations regardless of financial burden so I'm worried this tenant (and many others) will straight up just stop paying until this crisis is over.
- The big banks have said they will do something about deferring mortgage payments but the word on the street from INSIDERS makes this sound fairly un-consumer friendly - which is either good or bad based on how you feel about this. Basically it sounds like they'll put you through the ringer to make sure you actually can't pay, they'll continue charging you interest despite the lack of payments and tack it onto your mortgage amount, and may use this as reason to not renew your mortgage once all is said and done. Also this doesn't seem to apply to smaller/secondary lenders where many landlords get their funding from (like myself) so if tenants stop paying and banks aren't cooperating, this could be a shit show.
- Tax payment deadlines have been extended by a few months

For businesses:

- Wage subsidies for businesses who can't afford to keep workers
- Flexible tax filings
- Access to more credit for businesses (10 billion to mostly small/med businesses)
- Something to do with the government buying mortgages from banks so banks can secure the funding they need to continue lending to businesses.

Far more depth here: Canada’s C0VlD-19 Economic Response Plan - Canada.ca

 

[WillHurtDontCare]

Third world countries are poor because of a lack of resources.

The term resources can be pretty broad, so I'm going to assume that you meant natural resources.

Natural resources can actually prevent development, because they allow dictators to get in power and bribe the army / other countries to stay in power long term.

 

[Walter Hay]

I have read the same. Tylenol (acetaminophen) seems to be the better alternative.

Don't forget the strong risk of severe internal bleeding from using Ibuprofen.

Walter

 

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[GIlman]

Trump and health officials caution young people to 'heed the advice' on coronavirus

President Donald Trump and a top US health official cautioned young people to heed the advice to socially distance and be wary of the coronavirus pandemic even though they do not fall in the highest risk groups.

www.cnn.com

There’s lots of reasons young people should take this seriously. They are not nearly as safe as they think.

 

[Bekit]

I'm gonna start buying some vegetable seeds. Any recommendations on what produces calories and can grow under a lot of conditions?

If you buy seeds, I'd buy heirloom seeds (these are ones that you can collect from your crop and re-grow next year). Non-heirloom seeds are often sterile in the next generation. I'm ordering seeds from here.

What can grow under a lot of conditions?
You'd have to look at what region you're in in as far as what grows well.
Relevant:

1. Your zone. What's the lowest extreme minimum annual temperature? Seed packets will typically tell you what zones the seeds are good for.
2. How many growing season days you have. What is the average last frost date in the spring and the first frost date in the fall? (For instance, sweet potatoes are an AWESOME option that require almost no work, but if your growing season is too short, you won't get a crop.)

What produces calories?

• Underground vegetables (potatoes, beets, onions, etc.) produce the most amount of food in the least amount of land. [source]
• Here's a resource that compares the nutrition yields of various common crops.
• Squash is a very filling food. You can also store it for a long time into the fall without it spoiling.
• Beans are also an excellent option. Since they are legumes, they return nitrogen to the soil, which helps to ensure that you can plant year after year.
• In addition to prioritizing for calories, I would also prioritize a planting schedule that optimizes the use of your ground to give you harvests across the season rather than waiting for everything to ripen in the fall. For instance, you can start spinach and kale (extremely nutritious!) early in the spring, and then harvest them, and then grow something else in the same spot.

===============================
On another note:

An Epistemic Crisis

The ray of hope is that reliable tests are going to be distributed widely in the coming days, and that will solve the great epistemic crisis. There is hope and light at the end of this very dark tunnel of ignorance.

www.aier.org

Excerpt:

Above all else, the number one question people have in this crisis is: do I have the Coronavirus? This more than anything else is the central concern. Remarkably, Americans did not know and had no means of finding out. The reason is now clear: the Centers for Disease Control had previously nationalized all disease testing. A government bureaucracy like any other. It’s hardly surprising that it completely flopped.

AIER already explained how a private researcher, funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, was forcibly prevented from producing and distributing a valid test. The CDC said no.

Now, more details are rolling in about how all this went down, thanks to intrepid reporters who smelled a rat. The CDC in the first week of February sent 160,000 tests to labs around the country. The tests were faulty and produced confusing results. They were withdrawn, just as private laboratories fixed the test.

Still, no approval was being given for private labs to produce tests. For the very curious, you can read the many stories of private labs who were begging for a chance to do something about the problem. The red tape, confusion, power struggles, and information blockages are being documented by the day.

The Washington Post reports:

The U.S. efforts to distribute a working test stalled until Feb. 28, when federal officials revised the CDC test and began loosening up FDA rules that had limited who could develop coronavirus diagnostic tests.

The CDC/FDA bans on private tests were done in the name of health and safety. That was the period in which panic enveloped the nation. No one knew. We had no means to find out. Everyone and everything flipped out. We replaced knowledge with insanity.

 

[hellolin]

If they mail everyone $700, or $2000, is that really going to help them if they lose their job? Maybe the government should pay their wages through their existing employer, so they keep getting paychecks and get to keep their job. If they lose their job, they will need a lot more than $2000.

Americans sure do love their particular flavor of socialism isn't it? I think people on this forum need to realize this is true and assume their positions from this basis instead of thinking that Americans are really all what they all say they are, some rugged individualism or something. Truth is everyone talks a tough game but everyone chickens out as soon as shit hits the fan.

 

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[WillHurtDontCare]

If you buy seeds, I'd buy heirloom seeds (these are ones that you can collect from your crop and re-grow next year). Non-heirloom seeds are often sterile in the next generation. I'm ordering seeds from here.

What can grow under a lot of conditions?
You'd have to look at what region you're in in as far as what grows well.
Relevant:

1. Your zone. What's the lowest extreme minimum annual temperature? Seed packets will typically tell you what zones the seeds are good for.
2. How many growing season days you have. What is the average last frost date in the spring and the first frost date in the fall? (For instance, sweet potatoes are an AWESOME option that require almost no work, but if your growing season is too short, you won't get a crop.)

What produces calories?

• Underground vegetables (potatoes, beets, onions, etc.) produce the most amount of food in the least amount of land. [source]
• Here's a resource that compares the nutrition yields of various common crops.
• Squash is a very filling food. You can also store it for a long time into the fall without it spoiling.
• Beans are also an excellent option. Since they are legumes, they return nitrogen to the soil, which helps to ensure that you can plant year after year.
• In addition to prioritizing for calories, I would also prioritize a planting schedule that optimizes the use of your ground to give you harvests across the season rather than waiting for everything to ripen in the fall. For instance, you can start spinach and kale (extremely nutritious!) early in the spring, and then harvest them, and then grow something else in the same spot.

===============================
On another note:

An Epistemic Crisis

The ray of hope is that reliable tests are going to be distributed widely in the coming days, and that will solve the great epistemic crisis. There is hope and light at the end of this very dark tunnel of ignorance.

www.aier.org

Excerpt:

I didn't expect this much detail - I expected someone to tell me that Amazon has an interesting variety pack. Thank you @Bekit

 

[Saavedra]

Italy has had

I didn't read the last 5 or so pages because I just got online and I'm about to go to bed but to reiterate because some people clearly don't understand what's the real issue with the virus.

Italy is one of the oldest countries in the world (up there with Japan), and so far here 2500 people have died from COVID, while 2900 have recovered. The total number of infected is 28500. Do you not see what's the issue with these numbers? The mortality rate will be 1% only if all of the currently infected people recover. Yes, we have a old population, and yes, that's unfortunate, but the true issue is that elder people are at extreme risk.

The virus SLAYS (yes, slays) elder people, so don't be stupid and don't put your parents / grandparents / older relatives at risk just because you are going to (maybe, don't take it for granted) be fine.

that's like 0.00007% of the population of Italy for those that like to keep deaths being deaths and don't do age discrimination on which kind of people die.

so if some relative dies in a car accident you do damn well in asking society why cars aren't forbidden.

90 year old people dying is NOT okay. got it feels-people.

 

[MattR82]

Yea I looked it up after you said something and it looks like he’s maintaining that idea.

Elon Musk says 'coronavirus panic is worse than virus itself' in email to Tesla employees

Elon Musk sent a new email to all Tesla employees today to share some thoughts about the coronavirus as the...

electrek.co

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-elon-musk-tesla-workers-can-stay-home-C0VlD-19-2020-3

Elon Musk underplays coronavirus threat, tells employees that car crashes are more dangerous

Musk doesn’t appear to be too worried about coronavirus.

www.theverge.com

Elon Musk is a smart guy, but I suspect he’s mildly autistic (i mean that literally.. autistic people have a hard time understanding ‘human’ stuff and are extremely logical)

But he’s not wrong. Car crashes kill millions. Does that mean we should stop trying to make cars safer? If there’s a pile -up of 500 cars should we refuse to send paramedics because “oh well millions die anyway”

I can’t follow his thinking here.

Or maybe he’s right. I mean i can’t imagine anyone who is actively trying so hard to save the human race would be so negligent toward it.

But also keep in mind that while Musk is smart, he’s not an infectious disease expert. The people who study this (epidemiologists) are saying this is bad. Musk is a technologist.

I mean like @Primeperiwinkle pointed out the panic IS worse in some cases. The pictures of bare shelves is grossly out of proportion. A friend told me that the shelves were bare but then i went and only the Paper Towel aisle and Meat Cooler were impacted. That’s hardly what I consider ‘bare.’ Aside from that they had everything.

Are: Economy, I think it’s likely F*cked regardless. At least over the short term. I like MJ’s analogy if amputating an arm before things spread. Either we shut things down selectively or let the disease run it’s course where (aside from the more major issues) 70% of the population gets sick and will be out of work for weeks; while overwhelming the hospitals, or we shut thing down or purpose. Either way I think it’s a major hit. Yea it’s bad but it could be much worse. Right now at least many people can work from home. Amazon is kicking harder than ever, Skype use is at all-time high.

But overwhelming the hospitals means that if you break your bone or get an infection, doctors won’t be able to help you. Poisonings, drug overdoses, paramedics.. all on hold. Aside from the CV cases. That’s the BIGGEST concern and why were taking drastic action.

All we know is what happens when we don’t take action quick enough, which is what’s happening in italy. And the Italians DID take action, just not enough.

Yep. I was walking past the supermarket the other day and my housemates (who only started preparing yesterday lol) were coming out telling me there's nothing there, nothing there!

I went in because there actually wasn't many more people than normal and the only thing missing was meat and toilet paper section. Everything else was full.

Limiting my time in this thread to maximum 1 hour per day from now. And not before bed lol.

 

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[Deleted70138]

Trump and health officials caution young people to 'heed the advice' on coronavirus

President Donald Trump and a top US health official cautioned young people to heed the advice to socially distance and be wary of the coronavirus pandemic even though they do not fall in the highest risk groups.

www.cnn.com

There’s lots of reasons young people should take this seriously. They are not nearly as safe as they think.

Probably not true, but just an attempt to somehow to stop selfish juvenile delinquents from socializing and spreading virus.

 

[biggeemac]

Wow !!!! 20 miles from me. 250 bed emergency hospital going up at the fairgrounds.

Oregon Gov. Kate Brown announces setup of 250-bed emergency hospital in Salem

Oregon Gov. Kate Brown said during a daily briefing call with reporters Wednesday that a 250-bed emergency hospital is being set up in Salem, to help increase hospital bed capacity during a surge of coronavirus cases.

www.oregonlive.com

 

[GIlman]

Probably not true, but just an attempt to somehow to stop selfish juvenile delinquents from socializing and spreading virus.

I am 100% certain they are correct. Even though the proportions are smaller, we have known for quite some time that people of all ages end up in the ICU. Expect death rates in the <40 to rise significantly when ICU resources fail. I know this because I have seen healthy teens get critically ill with flu, and this is much more aggressive of an infection. But at the end of the day I’m sure no number of examples will be able to convince teens and young adults. As a group they have very high denial of any risks of any sort.

Anyone who does not work in the medical field likely does not truly know how dire the situation really is. Our ICU’s are nearly full on a full time basis, hospitals are in a rush against time right now to repurpose and reconfigure as much as humanly possible. and this says noting of the equipment or supplies. I’ve been on calls with top level administrators and the outlook is not good at all.

 

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[IceCreamAction]

Trinidad & Tobago (Twin Island Caribbean Nation)
- Self quarantine measures in effect for people who are exposed or traveled recently
- Borders closed this morning (no entry to non nationals without exception from Minister of National Security)
- Businesses open generally, all entities implementing a COVID 19 policy and procedure via Pandemic leave
- Bars told to close think all finally closed today (people hang out regardless of danger hence the issue to close)
- Restaurants have no more in-house dining, delivery and take away options still allowed
- 7 confirmed cases (all "imported" ) with more to come, main reason for low numbers is limitation of available test kits
- China to send 4,000 test kits under strict temp control measures (dry ice)

Just thought I'd add my country's situation.

 

[ChrisV]

It sucks.. I live right on the border of NY / CT.... we're right at the epicenter of all this

Remember this think I posted just a few days back? New York had 300. Now it has 2300. That's exponential growth.



And it goes without say that these are only confirmed cases. Actual cases are 10-50x higher.