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HOT TOPIC The Worldwide Covid-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

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Bekit

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I don't know where you are getting your information from but do scientists even know much about the virus? If China is blocking information then how do you know all of this?
I'm getting my information from Dr. John Campbell's channel on YouTube. (Edit: Here's a link to today's video.)

This is a channel focused only on evidence based information. He's a British guy who has about a thousand videos on his channel explaining topics like the immune system, the cardiovascular system, or the pulmonary system. In real life, he's a trainer of nurses in the UK.

So with coronavirus, he takes the articles that are coming out of peer-reviewed journals and breaks them down into terms that are easy to understand.

There is scientific research on this virus, although it is still at a very early stage. We obviously don't know everything. As the evidence becomes available, Dr. John makes it understandable.

No one knows how bad this virus actually is yet because the media is there to sell a story and China may not be telling the truth.

In this day and age I don't see a pandemic happening. I see news is able to spread fast which will help greatly in keeping this virus under control. The science and help that is a available today is phenomenol
Except that the powers that be are actively hindering the spread of news, not just in China, but here in the US. Notice how on the first page of Google when you search for "coronavirus," the results are dominated by WHO and the CDC? That's not the normal algorithm showing the most popular page or the most valuable search result. That's a manual override showing what people are "allowed" to see.

The science and help today are phenomenal, yes---for the first few people who get sick. But the health care community is already running out of masks, personal protective equipment, and supplies globally. Most hospitals have only one isolation room for airborne infections of this type.

When we get to the point where there's no oxygen to give a person with pneumonia because the system is inundated, might as well be back in the dark ages.
 

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Vigilante

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Two separate factory notifications today.

The first was interesting. Workers now delayed to returning to the factory after CNY until early March, but executives going back now to begin planning. There is some type of 2 week quarantine of the workers, the details of which were not clear/provided to me. So, sounds like the government is putting some type of screening or testing process in place for the workers.

The second factory said

Right now, the Corona Virus is still serious and widespread in China and Hong Kong even our China factory now get less workers coming back after the CNY holidays and so the delivery lead time may take longer.
 

Bekit

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These graphs from the second video you linked are pretty telling.
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The red line on each graph is 2020.
The dotted vertical line on each graph is the beginning of Chinese New Year.

Graph 1 depicts daily coal consumption.
Graph 2 depicts the average transportation congestion index.
Graph 3 depicts the daily property sales volume in 30 major cities.

The flatline in these three sectors alone will have dramatic economic consequences.

Even if the virus were to not infect another person, there's going to be a massive economic ripple effect from this.
 

Envision

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Two separate factory notifications today.

The first was interesting. Workers now delayed to returning to the factory after CNY until early March, but executives going back now to begin planning. There is some type of 2 week quarantine of the workers, the details of which were not clear/provided to me. So, sounds like the government is putting some type of screening or testing process in place for the workers.

The second factory said

Right now, the Corona Virus is still serious and widespread in China and Hong Kong even our China factory now get less workers coming back after the CNY holidays and so the delivery lead time may take longer.
This, I think they are saving face. All my suppliers were saying the same thing. Except one, he was actually telling me the truth. He said the numbers are massively (10x) underreported and they cannot go out and must work from home. The virus is not contained and China is not being open about it... obviously. Dates have been pushed back into March for production.

We have a health crisis and an economic crises coming. Working closely with my suppliers over the years I have this feeling that the tide has gone out and everyone is standing around watching as the wave is coming and others are blissfully unaware.

China essentially has to go back to work to prevent the economy from collapsing and widespread panic from hitting the mainstream. In doing so, they will expose workers to a disease they cant cure, don't accurately know incubation times, and spreads like nothing we've seen.

Ive been cutting my overhead down over the past 3 days. Stocking up on inventory (as much as I can), killing off softwares, agencies, etc to get my cash flow to a place where we can sustain. I hope Im over reacting but I dont think we're being told the truth when I align the actions of my contacts in China with what we're being told.

Interested in what everyone else is seeing.
 

.B.

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So first the optimistic point of view:

I keep an eye on Singapore because:


1) they were among the first to be hit, outside of China.
So to me, Singapore serves as an Early Warning System (it gives an idea of how it could develop later in other countries)

2) I read an article recently that made me think that Singapore has proper measures in place (prevention, monitoring, quarantine,...). (Sadly, I can't find the article link to share it.)

Because of that, to me, their stats will be the best-case scenario another country could expect if they have proper measures in place too.
It's only my decision-making system. I don't say it's correct.

So far the numbers from Singapore are pretty reassuring, so it's a good news

30615

Of course we will only have the complete view when recovered + deaths = confirmed

Except that the powers that be are actively hindering the spread of news, not just in China, but here in the US. Notice how on the first page of Google when you search for "coronavirus," the results are dominated by WHO and the CDC? That's not the normal algorithm showing the most popular page or the most valuable search result. That's a manual override showing what people are "allowed" to see.
Since in a worst-case scenario we couldn't trust the official numbers,
does any of you have local contacts to confirm that the official numbers from Singapore can be trusted?



30614
source: MOH | Updates on COVID-19 (Coronavirus Disease 2019) Local Situation
 
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.B.

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So if Singapore numbers continue to be good, it may just mean that the Chinese government waited too long before taking measures.

(i.e. the virus had spread to too many people already)

And if that's the case, let's hope you're not in a country that will repeat the same mistake.

In the meantime, if you want to take a break from all the bad news, read this news site:

30617
 
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G-Man

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A lot of the long time market makers seem to be hoarding cash instead of buying their normal big blocks of inventory, and one of the major US carriers is unloading a large volume of stock in an atypical way. Hoping it’s corporate restructuring, but the timing seems a little eerie.

Everybody in the consumer electronics industry is a lot more bearish on this thing than the general public seems to be.
 

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The sudden jump in South Korea is a little worrying, it's estimated that woman came into contact with around 1000 people.

But, other than problems that have arisen from the quarantine keeping people away from work? I'm not sure this virus is too terrible. Just over-hyped panic.

Anyone planning on starting a protective equipment business now? I keep seeing ads for this mask company on FB, they actually look quite good for regular painting and decorating tbh, but of course they're pumping in the ad money because of this aren't they?
 
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loop101

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The number of new infections seems to be slowing down, but then I hear that a lot of places are out of testing kits, and tons of people are still being infected. Hard to know what to believe.

My theory is, if you can buy an N95 mask on Amazon for the regular price, the pandemic threat is over.
 

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lowtek

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The number of new infections seems to be slowing down, but then I hear that a lot of places are out of testing kits, and tons of people are still being infected. Hard to know what to believe.

My theory is, if you can buy an N95 mask on Amazon for the regular price, the pandemic threat is over.
China changed their counting methodology twice in the last week. Anything they report is a lie.

Cases outside of China are continuing to mount at a nearly exponential pace.
 

Bryan James

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Will the Coronavirus kill us all? The chances are actually startlingly high.

But if you act now and purchase the affordable anti-Coronavirus immunity medication, CoronaCure, you can be sure to avoid imminent death. Side-effects include: constipation, diarrhea, losing control of motor function, uncontrollable flatulence, bleeding out of every orifice, and your eyeballs falling out. Please contact a doctor if you experience any of these symptoms.
 
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loop101

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Will the Coronavirus kill us all? The chances are actually startlingly high.

But if you act now and purchase the affordable anti-Coronavirus immunity medication, CoronaCure, you can be sure to avoid imminent death. Side-effects include: constipation, diarrhea, losing control of motor function, uncontrollable flatulence, bleeding out of every orifice, and your eyeballs falling out. Please contact a doctor if you experience any of these symptoms.
I get those same side-effects from the Olestra in Fat Free Pringles, can I just eat the chips?
 

NovaAria

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China changed their counting methodology twice in the last week. Anything they report is a lie.
Well guess what... They changed it AGAIN.


This and the fact that they cut off all internet access in Wuhan along with their effort to crackdown on information leakers more than quarantine escapees clearly shows what their plan is.
Sacrifice the people to save the economy.
 

GIlman

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Well guess what... They changed it AGAIN.


This and the fact that they cut off all internet access in Wuhan along with their effort to crackdown on information leakers more than quarantine escapees clearly shows what their plan is.
Sacrifice the people to save the economy.
Although I don’t believe the Chinese gov is honest, it should be pointed out that it is extremely hard to accurately count something like this. There are many many more people that have gotten the disease that have mild symptoms outside of the medical system.

The death rate is certainly inflated due to this. You only know recorded/reported cases. Look at cases outside China, the death rate is not greater than in China. And yes, even in the US there are certainly unreported unquarintined cases as we speak.
 

Sayd OG

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The virus is now spreading in a higher rate in countries outside of China. South Koreas numbers have been going off.

It won´t be long until it reaches all of the West. I think right now is the best time to prepare for the virus.
 

Mario_fastlaner

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The virus is now spreading in a higher rate in countries outside of China. South Koreas numbers have been going off.

It won´t be long until it reaches all of the West. I think right now is the best time to prepare for the virus.
Here in Italy two days ago we had 2 cases. Now we have 50 (2 deaths).
In my city and around we are told to not go out, public events cancelled, schools suspended.
 
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loop101

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One person got 626 people infected on the Diamond Princess cruise-ship. Now we are getting reports of a few infected people showing up in random countries: Italy, Iran, Canada. Nobody knows where it is spreading, since it is communicable while still undetectable. Seems like the cat is out of the bag.

It still seems like there is something they are not telling us. The Doctor who tried to warn the world about it, died from it. The Director of the Wuhan Hospital, died from it. They tried to contain it on a ship, but that backfired and it looked like everyone on the ship was going to get it - so they let them leave the ship. Countries that are effectively dictatorships are taking drastic actions (because they can). Hard to imagine where all this is going to go.

I keep reading that companies have made vaccines which should be available in a few months. Maybe that is the solution.

My worst case scenario is that because it is super-contagious, everyone on the planet gets it, and is re-infected every few weeks, with a mortality rate of 2%. That kills off 10% of the world population every year, until the only country left with people in it - is China.
 

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lowtek

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One person got 626 people infected on the Diamond Princess cruise-ship. Now we are getting reports of a few infected people showing up in random countries: Italy, Iran, Canada. Nobody knows where it is spreading, since it is communicable while still undetectable. Seems like the cat is out of the bag.

It still seems like there is something they are not telling us. The Doctor who tried to warn the world about it, died from it. The Director of the Wuhan Hospital, died from it. They tried to contain it on a ship, but that backfired and it looked like everyone on the ship was going to get it - so they let them leave the ship. Countries that are effectively dictatorships are taking drastic actions (because they can). Hard to imagine where all this is going to go.

I keep reading that companies have made vaccines which should be available in a few months. Maybe that is the solution.

My worst case scenario is that because it is super-contagious, everyone on the planet gets it, and is re-infected every few weeks, with a mortality rate of 2%. That kills off 10% of the world population every year, until the only country left with people in it - is China.
Nothing quite so dramatic, I suspect. But it's not "just another flu". This is the real deal; a once in a century pandemic. Each day the evidence of this is mounting.

Ask yourself why people who live in hurricane prone Florida have to panic buy bottled water and canned goods.. every. single. year. Ask yourself how people behave on black Friday when the shelves are completely stocked. When you have the answers, you'll know what to do.
 

Primeperiwinkle

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I really want to get a group of say ten experts together to make some projections. If y’all want to think about it, let’s think about it with some clear numbers.

Whats the projected spread across the world? Major cities first yea? Let’s stick with 2% death in major cities. If you add in the fact that certain places *cough America*cough are almost entirely indebted or reliant on China’s economy.. which places are going to make it? Which industries will be affected first?

I GUARANTEE that some genius somewhere has already built a projected model of exactly this type of thing.. I just don’t know how to find that model.

Somebody somewhere has to be running these numbers but I’m not an economist or a data scientist so I don’t know the best words to even start googling to get to those figures. Thankfully this forum is jam packed with ppl who understand all kinds of cool things.

Id also bet money that an expert who has worked for emergency charities like the Red Cross or even Samaritan’s Purse would have a perspectives thats really useful.
 

lowtek

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I really want to get a group of say ten experts together to make some projections. If y’all want to think about it, let’s think about it with some clear numbers.

Whats the projected spread across the world? Major cities first yea? Let’s stick with 2% death in major cities. If you add in the fact that certain places *cough America*cough are almost entirely indebted or reliant on China’s economy.. which places are going to make it? Which industries will be affected first?

I GUARANTEE that some genius somewhere has already built a projected model of exactly this type of thing.. I just don’t know how to find that model.

Somebody somewhere has to be running these numbers but I’m not an economist or a data scientist so I don’t know the best words to even start googling to get to those figures. Thankfully this forum is jam packed with ppl who understand all kinds of cool things.

Id also bet money that an expert who has worked for emergency charities like the Red Cross or even Samaritan’s Purse would have a perspectives thats really useful.
Google "Event 201".
 

Primeperiwinkle

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Google "Event 201".
Gates foundation funded. If I.. perhaps.. disagree with 99.9% of everything they do and I wanted a different model.. you don’t by any chance have one handy do you?

Since I grew up discussing apocalyptic events and playing Resident Evil I feel entirely prepared for any and all eventualities.

Jokes aside, I was planning on moving to Bali and now I’m rethinking that... darn it.
 

MJ DeMarco

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If this intensifies (as it looks like it is starting to do) NOW is the time to start preparing. When the shit hits the fan, you won't be able to buy supplies. If you ever seen Flordia pre-hurricane, the stores are shit-shows. This would probably be the same.

I've spent the better part of the day stocking up on necessities; propane, gas, food stuffs with long shelf-life,water filters, ammunition, basic "prepper" kind of stuff. Even if nothing happens with this outbreak, it never hurts to have this stuff anyway. You never know if you might need to lock yourself up for 3 months.

I know I wont regret doing it (probably overreacting) but its possible I might regret it if I didn't. Can't hurt to take some mild precautions.

The last place I want to be in an emergency is at a store. Things could get harry.
 
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loop101

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If this intensifies (as it looks like it is starting to do) NOW is the time to start preparing. When the shit hits the fan, you won't be able to buy supplies. If you ever seen Flordia pre-hurricane, the stores are shit-shows. This would probably be the same.

I've spent the better part of the day stocking up on necessities; propane, gas, food stuffs with long shelf-life,water filters, ammunition, basic "prepper" kind of stuff. Even if nothing happens with this outbreak, it never hurts to have this stuff anyway. You never know if you might need to lock yourself up for 3 months.

I know I wont regret doing it (probably overreacting) but its possible I might regret it if I didn't. Can't hurt to take some mild precautions.

The last place I want to be in an emergency is at a store. Things could get harry.
I bought some Mountain House buckets a week ago. 30 year shelf-life.

https://www.amazon.com/dp/B00955337I/?tag=tff-amazonparser-20
 

ChickenHawk

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I bought some Mountain House buckets a week ago. 30 year shelf-life.
https://www.amazon.com/dp/B00955337I/?tag=tff-amazonparser-20
Interesting to see that it's out of stock now until March 19, which is nearly a month away. I suspect a lot of people are stocking up. Personally, I believe this is going to get a lot worse before it gets better. Anyone who doesn't stock up on essentials now, IMO, is taking a big risk. Better safe than sorry!
 

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The virus is hitting so hard Italy! They didn't find the case 0 yet so the current situation is gonna be way worse next days!
I'm lucky that I live in an island and currently we have zero cases but as an italian I really don't know what to do, people are in panic mode here!
In your opinion, could it be an option to just run away let's say in Iceland?
 

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