The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

[Thoelt53]

Presenting data =\= speculation.

I'm not guessing what will happen. I'm presenting what the data says. If you don't agree with the data is presenting, then that is your speculation. There isn't enough evidence that the presented data is wrong.

I don't have a crystal ball, I can't predict the outcome of all of this. But if the current data says there is a 6% mortality rate, then I would say it's far from nothing.

Either way the economic effects are going to be major.

You are speculating that the virus outbreak will near plague proportions.

What data does tell us, however, is that the more you test for SARS-CoV-2, the lower the mortality rate thus far. This is clearly shown by data from South Korea and the Diamond Princess.

I do agree that the economic effects will be grave.

 

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[loop101]

If MJ or Vigilante want to rename this thread to something more normal, I wont mind. I probably would have called it "Coronavirus Discussion" or "Coronavirus Discussion Thread", if I had thought it would be a popular place to share information.

 

[GIlman]

One question I have kicked around is.....if we didn't have flu shots available, what would the death rate of the common flu look like?

Death rate would be the same. Vaccines typically decrease the incidence and prevalence. But the death rate is a percentage of those infected who die regardless of the total # infected.

However, if the prevalence increases, with a fixed death rate, then the total killed increases in proportion to the incidence. E.g. 5% mortality rate would be 5 deaths if 100 infected, 50 deaths if 1000 infected, 500 deaths if 10,000 infected. The total number dead increased as the incidence increases, but the rate is unchanged of 5% of infected die. Vaccines decrease the total # infected, this decreasing the total # killed.

Some definitions to clear things up.

Incidence = the total # diagnosed in some specified time period. For flu or Coronavirus usually incidence is a 1 year period of time. For something like colon or breast cancer usually we talk about someone’s entire life.

prevalence = the total # with disease right now, today, at this moment in time. It is the number currently diagnosed with active disease. Anyone who had the disease previously and has recovered is not counted in the prevalence.

mortality rate = the number of people who die for a given number who develop the disease. This can be expressed as a percent or ratio.

morbidity rate = the number of people that suffer some complication related to the disease. This can be total morbidity which is any complication vs specific morbidity rate such as the percent of people with lung scarring or heart disease from the infection.

 

[LightningHelix]

You are speculating that the virus outbreak will near plague proportions.

What data does tell us, however, is that the more you test for SARS-CoV-2, the lower the mortality rate thus far. This is clearly shown by data from South Korea and the Diamond Princess.

I do agree that the economic effects will be grave.

Let me clarify. I said that the mortality rate (at 6%) is comparable to the WHO mortality rate of plague (8-10%).

It's just a comparison point.

 

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[Vigilante]

If MJ or Vigilante want to rename this thread to something more normal, I wont mind. I probably would have called it "Coronavirus Discussion" or "Coronavirus Discussion Thread", if I had thought it would be a popular place to share information.

@MJ DeMarco

 

[loop101]

Some quick links from the new Reddit forum:

• Reddit has a new section for Coronoavirus news
• The University of Washington is moving to online classes for its 50,000 students.
• SXSW canceled due to coronavirus after Austin declares 'local disaster'
• It's a 'false hope' coronavirus will disappear in the summer like the flu, WHO says
• London Heathrow Baggage Handlers Test Positive for Coronavirus

 

[Primeperiwinkle]

If only MJ wanted to be our bookie we could all make bets right now.

*wistful sigh

 

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[Thoelt53]

I'm not sure where your sources are but check the link in my post and you will see what data I used. Once again your source may be different from mine, and I won't get detracted into a discussion about whose source is better.

Edit: okay I will a little.

Other subjects covered by slate.com
View attachment 30893

My source isn't slate.com. The article was written by Dr. Jeremy Faust, an emergency medicine physician at Brigham and Women's Hospital in Boston, MA. Brigham and Women's is a Harvard Medical School teaching hospital and #2 hospital in Boston. Forgive me for linking to Slate...

What I should have said previously, in better terms, is that data can be flawed. Data coming from China, the US, Italy, Iran, etc. is flawed because they are not testing enough of the populace. When we review data from populations that have been well tested, i.e. South Korea and the Diamond Princess, it is clear that the mortality rate is much lower than data from other populations suggests.

I understand that you are comparing recoveries to deaths, but that data is flawed, as I previously mentioned, on the basis that the percentage of populace that has been tested in seemingly high mortality places is very low. Compare high-mortality data to the data from populaces that have been tested more thoroughly, and the mortality rate suddenly drops. This isn't a coincidence. It's accurate data vs. inaccurate data.

It's not the virus itself that we should be worried about, but rather the societal and economic impacts, which we both agree are major concerns.

What frightens me more, not to sound like a conspiracy loon, are the draconian actions we are seeing taken by governments world wide. When this all plays out, it will be interesting to see if China especially, but other nations no less, scale back on their recent advances in surveillance and population control. I doubt they will.

"Never let a good crisis go to waste." -Saul Alinsky

Nevertheless, I maintain my point that it is always ideal to be prepared. Doesn't matter the crises, but when the people are panicking, you want to be the one person who isn't. Simply because you did you due diligence and were ready for whatever may come.

 

[biophase]

My point is the real danger is people stop shopping.

Then how is it a nothing burger?

 

[Thoelt53]

Then how is it a nothing burger?

The virus itself will likely turn out to be a "nothing burger." But the social and economic impact it creates is very, very real.

I can see disagreement on the danger of the virus, but I believe the latter is indisputable.

 

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[biophase]

There was a line to get in Costco this morning. The closest infected person is 1000 miles away that we know of.

It is your responsibility to analyze the facts and then make some sort of prediction about them. So when people say, I live in XXX and the closest infected city is XXX miles away, it makes me scratch my head.

Think about this...

1) The Grand Princess cruise ship just tested 21 positive people onboard. 19 of them were crew members.
2) The first person that died in Cali came from this cruise ship. He traveled between February 11-21

So since Feb. 21st people that have been aboard that ship have been disembarking and flying home to their home towns and have been going about life as usual. In 15 days of regular life, how many people do you come in contact with?

Isn't it possible that there was ONE person on that cruise that traveled to your town and has gone to restaurants, gone shopping, etc...

If your answer is yes, then understand there is a possibility that someone in your town has it.

The next step is that you probably know that the incubation period of this virus is 14 days. Feb 21st was 15 days ago. So I would expect that this cell of people would start experiencing symptoms over the next few days. We would see this number jump. In about 1-2 weeks from now, everyone that they've infected will start getting symptoms.

Analyze the facts! this is what smart, rational people do. I don't understand the argument when people tell me that there are no cases in their city.

PS. I would NOT be going on any cruises right now. Chances are super high that you will end up quarantined and stuck on the ship for a month.

 

[biophase]

The virus itself will likely turn out to be a "nothing burger." But the social and economic impact it creates is very, very real.

I can see disagreement on the danger of the virus, but I believe the latter is indisputable.

But doesn't a nothing burger mean that nothing happens. You can't say its a nothing burger and then put other worries or consequences into that statement.

This is what Rivoli wrote.

Screencap this:

This virus is a nothing burger and will be gone in a few months. Once summer comes it will start to disappear.

And then he said...

My point is the real danger is people stop shopping.

Rivoli's posts are making no sense to me. He's all over the place.

 

[biggeemac]

My source isn't slate.com. The article was written by Dr. Jeremy Faust, an emergency medicine physician at Brigham and Women's Hospital in Boston, MA. Brigham and Women's is a Harvard Medical School teaching hospital and #2 hospital in Boston. Forgive me for linking to Slate...

What I should have said previously, in better terms, is that data can be flawed. Data coming from China, the US, Italy, Iran, etc. is flawed because they are not testing enough of the populace. When we review data from populations that have been well tested, i.e. South Korea and the Diamond Princess, it is clear that the mortality rate is much lower than data from other populations suggests.

I understand that you are comparing recoveries to deaths, but that data is flawed, as I previously mentioned, on the basis that the percentage of populace that has been tested in seemingly high mortality places is very low. Compare high-mortality data to the data from populaces that have been tested more thoroughly, and the mortality rate suddenly drops. This isn't a coincidence. It's accurate data vs. inaccurate data.

It's not the virus itself that we should be worried about, but rather the societal and economic impacts, which we both agree are major concerns.

What frightens me more, not to sound like a conspiracy loon, are the draconian actions we are seeing taken by governments world wide. When this all plays out, it will be interesting to see if China especially, but other nations no less, scale back on their recent advances in surveillance and population control. I doubt they will.

"Never let a good crisis go to waste." -Saul Alinsky

Nevertheless, I maintain my point that it is always ideal to be prepared. Doesn't matter the crises, but when the people are panicking, you want to be the one person who isn't. Simply because you did you due diligence and were ready for whatever may come.

Yep, exactly what I am saying as well. The data is WAY out of context. You can't get a realistic picture of the death rate without knowing the true picture of the diagnosis. But because the public is demanding to know the death rate, and because the experts have limited data, they are obliged to report the figures on that data.

As far as the economic damage, China is pretty screwed, as is a lot of the US as well. I personally think that this virus will not be particularly crushing(I could be wrong), but I think that this disease revealed a major weakness with our public health. My dad has said for years that he believes that disease will be what really kicks our a$$. And the sooner we get prepared for the BIG one, the better.

 

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[biophase]

I was talking to my friend and she was saying that she couldn't find hand sanitizer and thought it was dumb that people are hording it. She doesn't think much of the virus situation.

What I explained to her was that it doesn't matter what she thinks. She said all those people are stupid for buying up all the sanitizer, but the fact is that she is out of sanitizer and other people have alot of it.

So who is the dumb one in this situation?

This is much like when @MJ DeMarco says, the market doesn't care what you think. Just because you don't believe the corona virus is dangerous doesn't mean that you shouldn't do anything about it. If you know that there will be a run on XXXXX product, and you use that product, why not buy more? Why not go to the store today, instead of next week?

So when you are out of toilet paper and you have wipe your a$$ with your hand, think about who the idiot is.

 

[Thoelt53]

But doesn't a nothing burger mean that nothing happens. You can't say its a nothing burger and then put other worries or consequences into that statement.

This is what Rivoli wrote.



And then he said...



Rivoli's posts are making no sense to me. He's all over the place.

I don’t know the exact definition of nothing burger which is why I was phrasing it in quotes. I learned that term this thread.

If it literally means “nothing happens at all,” I entirely disagree with that. My initial interpretation of the term is likely incorrect.

I took it to mean “over-hyped” in regards to the lethality of the virus.

 

[GIlman]

Here is the thing. Regardless of the numbers reported or postulated. Hospitals in China and Italy have been overrun with serious and critical patients with corona virus. This even as the total number infected has been a small proportion of the population. Heck, China built an extra 2600 bed hospital to deal with all of this. To put this in perspective, this is probably as many hospital beds in all of Phoenix and surrounding communities combined.

Based on this alone, no matter the figure put forth by the CDC or WHO or whomever, I have reason to see this as severe and significant.

I’m not listening to anyone talking. I’m paying attention to action, trends, behaviors, and impacts. Does anything else really matter?

 

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[biggeemac]

I was talking to my friend and she was saying that she couldn't find hand sanitizer and thought it was dumb that people are hording it. She doesn't think much of the virus situation.

What I explained to her was that it doesn't matter what she thinks. She said all those people are stupid for buying up all the sanitizer, but the fact is that she is out of sanitizer and other people have alot of it.

So who is the dumb one in this situation?

This is much like when @MJ DeMarco says, the market doesn't care what you think. Just because you don't believe the corona virus is dangerous doesn't mean that you shouldn't do anything about it. If you know that there will be a run on XXXXX product, and you use that product, why not buy more? Why not go to the store today, instead of next week?

So when you are out of toilet paper and you have wipe your a$$ with your hand, think about who the idiot is.

Lol, yup. I ordered 6x 96 roll cases of tp, and food to last a couple of months. Lots of sanitizers on hand, cleaning supplies......my homes are good for a while. I probably spent $2500 on food and supplies because I can't afford to wait and see if the masses empty the shelves. And its all stuff that our business will use anyway, so I just looked at it as getting 2-6 months worth of shopping out of the way.

 

[ChickenHawk]

My generic migraine prescription is made in India. A few weeks ago, because I anticipated virus-related supply issues, I stocked up three months in advance. Today, I filled the prescription again. And guess what? During the last couple of weeks, it's doubled in price, from $20 to $40.

First, it was masks. Then it was hand sanitizer. Now it's prescriptions. If the trend continues, this virus will impact most of us in ways we might not anticipate.

Like I said, interesting times...

 

[GoodluckChuck]

It is your responsibility to analyze the facts and then make some sort of prediction about them. So when people say, I live in XXX and the closest infected city is XXX miles away, it makes me scratch my head.

Think about this...

1) The Grand Princess cruise ship just tested 21 positive people onboard. 19 of them were crew members.
2) The first person that died in Cali came from this cruise ship. He traveled between February 11-21

So since Feb. 21st people that have been aboard that ship have been disembarking and flying home to their home towns and have been going about life as usual. In 15 days of regular life, how many people do you come in contact with?

Isn't it possible that there was ONE person on that cruise that traveled to your town and has gone to restaurants, gone shopping, etc...

If your answer is yes, then understand there is a possibility that someone in your town has it.

The next step is that you probably know that the incubation period of this virus is 14 days. Feb 21st was 15 days ago. So I would expect that this cell of people would start experiencing symptoms over the next few days. We would see this number jump. In about 1-2 weeks from now, everyone that they've infected will start getting symptoms.

Analyze the facts! this is what smart, rational people do. I don't understand the argument when people tell me that there are no cases in their city.

PS. I would NOT be going on any cruises right now. Chances are super high that you will end up quarantined and stuck on the ship for a month.

When a confirmed case hits my town it will be impossible to get into Costco. That's why I brought it up. I am less concerned with the actual virus and more concerned with the perception of my community.

 

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[Timmy C]

Women charged after Sydney supermarket toilet roll row

Two women have been charged after a row about toilet paper in a western Sydney Woolworths allegedly turned ...

www.9news.com.au

 

[loop101]

Edna Boone was 10 years old during the 1918 Spanish Flu, and her family was the only one in town that did not contract it. They had to care for the other families, and her job was to deliver jars of soup to their porches. She mentions that WW1, the Boll Weevil cotton infestation, and "Asian Flu", were all going on at the same time.

"Children need to learn about what could happen...the shock-wave that sets in when something like this happens, kind of stuns people, they go beyond thinking correctly....Be aware, be aware."

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7k20VFZeLKY

 

[Mckenzie]

Extenuating Circumstances Policy and the coronavirus (COVID-19) - Airbnb Help Centre

www.airbnb.com.au

 

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[AnneC]

Wow... ridiculous. To add to my “no testing = no cases” rant, EvergreenHealth (Kirkland, WA) where 12 people have died, has posted that the CDC considers this is endemic (to Seattle? WA?... who knows), and therefore, nobody needs to be tested.

How’s that for data manipulation... we just won’t provide any!

The US response to this is downright embarrassing, as if the current government and healthcare systems weren’t shameful enough.

COVID-19 Information Hub | Kirkland, WA | EvergreenHealth

Get the latest C0VlD-19 information and updates on visitor policies for the hospitals and clinics of EvergreenHealth in Kirkland, WA.

www.evergreenhealth.com

 

[minivanman]

At the museum where my wife works they have a top guy that is out of the country. He chose to go (work related and paid for by the museum). There is a lady that is going to New York in a few weeks to a large show there and it is her choice to go (paid for by the museum).... but, when they both get back the museum has made it mandatory for them to be in self quarantine for 14 days. Both of them are very dedicated workers so it's going to be hard for them to stay at home for 14 days.

If you run out of toilet paper, just cut up old shirts.... it might feel so good you won't go back to toilet paper

 

[Andy Black]

I was talking to my friend and she was saying that she couldn't find hand sanitizer and thought it was dumb that people are hording it. She doesn't think much of the virus situation.

What I explained to her was that it doesn't matter what she thinks. She said all those people are stupid for buying up all the sanitizer, but the fact is that she is out of sanitizer and other people have alot of it.

So who is the dumb one in this situation?

This is much like when @MJ DeMarco says, the market doesn't care what you think. Just because you don't believe the corona virus is dangerous doesn't mean that you shouldn't do anything about it. If you know that there will be a run on XXXXX product, and you use that product, why not buy more? Why not go to the store today, instead of next week?

So when you are out of toilet paper and you have wipe your a$$ with your hand, think about who the idiot is.

This reminds me of a property investment course I bought years ago.

It explained how the general population could believe that house prices would go up or down based on what the media said.

I didn’t get it. I’d built my super clever house price calculator based on mortgage rates and local rents. What does it matter what the media said and the masses think?

Then the penny dropped. House prices go up or down precisely *because* of what the masses think.

I think that’s why entrepreneurs prepare better than the general population. We know that it’s not what the text books say but what the masses do.

WE know it’s too late to invest when the guy shining your shoes tells you to.

 

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[Bearcorp]

So when you are out of toilet paper and you have wipe your a$$ with your hand, think about who the idiot is.

Exactly the conversations I’ve been having with friends!

 

[Dariok]

Start selling bidet in the US could be a good fastlane business.

 

[Ernman]

PS. I would NOT be going on any cruises right now. Chances are super high that you will end up quarantined and stuck on the ship for a month.

LOL - I wouldn't go on a cruise EVER! But that's entirely different subject.

 

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[Andy Black]

I’m not listening to anyone talking. I’m paying attention to action, trends, behaviors, and impacts. Does anything else really matter?

^^^ This.

And it applies to everything doesn’t it?

 

[MJ DeMarco]

Most cruise ships are disgusting, especially if it's owned by Carnival. Those numbers don't surprise me as cruise ships are like floating petri dishes, not to mention many folks who like them tend to be 50+ years and older.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1236050761580244993

View: https://twitter.com/AnthemRespect/status/1236050761580244993?s=20