The Entrepreneur Forum | Startups | Entrepreneurship | Starting a Business | Motivation | Success

HOT TOPIC The Worldwide Covid-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

Remove ads while supporting the Unscripted philosophy...become an INSIDER.

Vigilante

Legendary Contributor
Staff member
EPIC CONTRIBUTOR
FASTLANE INSIDER
Read Millionaire Fastlane
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
Summit Attendee
Speedway Pass
Oct 31, 2011
10,463
62,030
4,655
Gulf Coast

becks22

90% coffee, 10% everything else
FASTLANE INSIDER
Read Millionaire Fastlane
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
Summit Attendee
Speedway Pass
Jul 6, 2016
416
1,166
368
27
Upstate NY
Two confirmed cases in New York City today. With the abundance of commuters who work in Manhattan but live in Long Island, Westchester, & CT, I'm sure the number of cases will increase over the next few weeks in the greater New England area.
 

BizyDad

Know Thyself
FASTLANE INSIDER
Read Millionaire Fastlane
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
Summit Attendee
Speedway Pass
Oct 7, 2019
495
1,806
529
Phoenix AZ
Here is something to put things in perspective. If you exclude China from the equation, which some would agree got most things WRONG in response to this virus in addition to having a very high number of smokers, the number of recorded cases confirmed is 10283 and the number of deaths is is 173. I'm not very good at calculating percentages, but this puts us significantly below 1% (death rate).
A friend point out the following to me, and it made me feel a bit better.

These numbers are based on confirmed cases. Many who contract the disease experience cold-like symptoms and don't get tested. Ergo, the actual fatality rate is lower than is being reported.

Here's an article to help some of us calm down a little at least.


Stats from the article:
  1. For Chinese patients whose symptoms started after February 1st, the death rate is just 0.7 percent. (For comparison, the U.S. death rate from 2019-20's annual flu outbreak is between .06 percent to 0.1 percent.
  2. Only one out of every 1,000 people in Hubei Province has contracted the coronavirus
  3. There have been no reported deaths in young children. Moreover, only 2.4% of cases are in individuals under the age of 18. Kids and teenagers have been surprisingly resistant to the virus.
 

biggeemac

Gold Contributor
Speedway Pass
Jun 25, 2011
779
1,062
390
44

Likwid24

Legendary Contributor
EPIC CONTRIBUTOR
FASTLANE INSIDER
Read Millionaire Fastlane
Summit Attendee
Speedway Pass
Mar 26, 2011
2,006
5,515
1,316
42
Staten Island, NY
I’m not sure how you are calculating a rate of 0.07%. I’ve not seen any data to support that. The best guesstimate really is to watch South Korea. They are doing very comprehensive screening and surveillance. So they are picking up a lot (but not all) mild cases in their numbers.

Of course as I believe @JScott pointed out until people have passed through and recovered we can’t really determine a final number.

Really what we need to be able to do is create cohorts by date Ranges, then follow them for a couple months to figure out some good statistics. Seems like with 60 days after infection there is almost always an outcome.

obviously the statistics are best the larger number of people we have, and ideally if the cohort mimics the population in composition. But this will take time and large numbers to know the truth.

I’m guessing the final total will be about 1-1.5% mortality. About 10-15x the flu. But there is certainly potential for lots of hype so this could be off, probably more likely too high than not high enough.

I also want to point out @biggeemac that a big part of the value from yearly sly shots really is in building both community immunity which helps everyone, and also cumulative immunity for yourself. Each year the composition of the Flu strains change. Over 30-40 years of immunization you have a pretty broad range of things your protected against. And that’s a good thing when your 60’s-90’s and are more prone to death by flu.

I’ve known several people that didn’t believe in getting the flu shot, until they get a horrible flu, and realize how sick you can get. The hard part is that flu vaccine is not 100% and never will be. There are many variants and they only target 3 a year typically. So if a different flu is circulating from your prior immunization history, theN you aren’t protected.
I just noticed I put .07. It is .7%. My bad. I'm not good at multitasking. The Flu is typically .6%
 

Vigilante

Legendary Contributor
Staff member
EPIC CONTRIBUTOR
FASTLANE INSIDER
Read Millionaire Fastlane
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
Summit Attendee
Speedway Pass
Oct 31, 2011
10,463
62,030
4,655
Gulf Coast
Here's a question... why do people need to come out in favor of minimization BEFORE all of the risks are known? What if you are wrong? (And yes, some I am addressing this to on the forum would be considered friends before and after this crisis passes us by).

What do you gain from minimizing an UNKNOWN risk? Isn't it more prudent to err in the side of cautiousness?

If I'm wrong, I have a few cans of pork and beans to consume during hurricane season. What if YOU'RE wrong?
 

VentureVoyager

Bronze Contributor
FASTLANE INSIDER
Read Millionaire Fastlane
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
Speedway Pass
Aug 19, 2017
114
239
165
30
Bali
Here is something to put things in perspective. If you exclude China from the equation, which some would agree got most things WRONG in response to this virus in addition to having a very high number of smokers, the number of recorded cases confirmed is 10283 and the number of deaths is is 173.
That's an interesting thought, and also a comforting one, however, should we then also exclude Italy from the equation, as some would agree that they got most things wrong in response to this virus, and they also smoke a lot?
And then how about Iran?
And where does it stop, or can we just disable the data that we don't like until we get a desired %?
 
Last edited:

BlindSide

Bronze Contributor
FASTLANE INSIDER
Read Millionaire Fastlane
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
Speedway Pass
Mar 16, 2017
152
285
176
26
Wichita Kansas
Here's a question... why do people need to come out in favor of minimization BEFORE all of the risks are known? What if you are wrong? (And yes, some I am addressing this to on the forum would be considered friends before and after this crisis passes us by).

What do you gain from minimizing an UNKNOWN risk? Isn't it more prudent to err in the side of cautiousness?

If I'm wrong, I have a few cans of pork and beans to consume during hurricane season. What if YOU'RE wrong?
Exactly. “It’s not as bad as the flu!!!”

Hey, what if I don’t want either? Why can’t I do my best to avoid both scenarios? What a novel idea.
 

GIlman

Still Gilman
FASTLANE INSIDER
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
Summit Attendee
Speedway Pass
Oct 16, 2014
692
3,900
886
Based on the patterns I’ve seen, I have an interesting theory. Flu usually impacts the Old and the Young. This seems to spare the young < 10 years old. And there is huge geographical variability in the severity.

So my theory is that some prior infection is predisposing people to sever illness. People have talked about a cytokine storm. So maybe people who have been previously exposed and developed immunity to some other illness, their immune system is all ramped up. When they get the CV their immune system has a huge out of proportion response, and causes the problem and exacerbated the severity.

very young people would not be expected to have necessarily gotten the sensitizing illness. And of course illness prevalence varies by geography.

just an interesting thought based on observed patterns I’m seeing.
 

Don't like ads? Remove them while supporting the forum. Subscribe.

Mattie

Platinum Contributor
Speedway Pass
May 28, 2014
3,024
4,043
1,036
Netherlands

Mattie

Platinum Contributor
Speedway Pass
May 28, 2014
3,024
4,043
1,036
Netherlands

Walter Hay

Legendary Contributor
EPIC CONTRIBUTOR
Speedway Pass
Sep 13, 2014
2,617
10,773
2,453
World citizen
Does anyone really believe the statistics reported by China and Iran?

Walter
 

ShamanKing

Bronze Contributor
FASTLANE INSIDER
Read Millionaire Fastlane
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
Summit Attendee
Speedway Pass
Aug 30, 2018
354
462
231
California
Here's a question... why do people need to come out in favor of minimization BEFORE all of the risks are known?
Because its easier to deny the fact. It’s easier to say “People are just over reacting”. Most go with the flow.
 

MJ DeMarco

Administrator
Staff member
EPIC CONTRIBUTOR
FASTLANE INSIDER
Read Millionaire Fastlane
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
Summit Attendee
Speedway Pass
Jul 23, 2007
30,259
109,267
3,751
Fountain Hills, AZ
Because its easier to deny the fact.
I'm guessing that the normalcy bias really is much worse simply because this is a hidden danger, unlike something visual and/or sensory.
 

G-Man

Cantankerous Contributor
EPIC CONTRIBUTOR
FASTLANE INSIDER
Read Millionaire Fastlane
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
Summit Attendee
Speedway Pass
Jan 13, 2014
1,996
10,596
2,436
Here's a question... why do people need to come out in favor of minimization BEFORE all of the risks are known? What if you are wrong? (And yes, some I am addressing this to on the forum would be considered friends before and after this crisis passes us by).

What do you gain from minimizing an UNKNOWN risk? Isn't it more prudent to err in the side of cautiousness?

If I'm wrong, I have a few cans of pork and beans to consume during hurricane season. What if YOU'RE wrong?
It actually says a lot about the power of peer pressure. We're more terrified of being perceived by the outgroup as a chicken little than we are of being caught without extra bottled water in the basement during a pandemic. The world is one giant high school cafeteria, @Vigilante

Also, pretty sure those pork and beans will blow the house down before a hurricane will. :rofl:
 

BizyDad

Know Thyself
FASTLANE INSIDER
Read Millionaire Fastlane
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
Summit Attendee
Speedway Pass
Oct 7, 2019
495
1,806
529
Phoenix AZ
Here's a question... why do people need to come out in favor of minimization BEFORE all of the risks are known? What if you are wrong? (And yes, some I am addressing this to on the forum would be considered friends before and after this crisis passes us by).

What do you gain from minimizing an UNKNOWN risk? Isn't it more prudent to err in the side of cautiousness?

If I'm wrong, I have a few cans of pork and beans to consume during hurricane season. What if YOU'RE wrong?
Maybe the comment isn't directed at me, but I'll chime in.

Personally, I wasn't trying to minimize, as in trivialize. I was trying to minimize, as in put things in a different perspective.

I shared what I shared because this thread had me legit panicked for about 4 hours a few days ago. Some people have shared some seemingly credible scary stuff on here.

The unknown nature of this gave my brain fits, especially when I asked myself, "What if my kids got the possibly weaponized never seen before world infecting killer virus for which we have no cure?"

Brain. Stopped. Working.

My fear felt irrational.

So I started seeking out the counterpoints. I had to know to what level of fear was rational.

And I think that's a very personal choice. I don't judge anyone else who is more or less fearful than I am about this. We all have our own choices to make. We all have our own people to protect. How we go about that is up to us individually.

I wanted to find legitimate reasons to not worry as much, which is very different than saying not worry at all.

There is a lot unknown. But there is a lot that is known too.

And if I struggled with this kind of emotion, then others probably are/have.

That said, I personally stocked up because it is better to have and not need than need and not have.

And asking questions of the couple people I know who work in the field, along with reading that article I shared helped me breathe easier.

I "minimized" because dialing things down from "petrified to inaction" to "concerned, prepared, and vigilant" helped me, and I thought it might help others.
 

ChickenHawk

Legendary Contributor
EPIC CONTRIBUTOR
FASTLANE INSIDER
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
Speedway Pass
Aug 16, 2012
1,234
5,792
1,296
Butt in Chair
It's probably too soon to know its true mortality rate. The rate might be lower than we think because we're not testing nearly enough people. (If only the very sick are tested, this artifically inflates the mortality rate.) Or it might be higher than we think, because deaths by this virus have been miscategorized as deaths by something else, such as the flu or pneumonia. (Apparently, this has been happening quite a bit in China, where government officials are strongly encouraged to list something else as the cause of death in order to present a rosier picture.)

But as of right now, the mortality rate is almost certainly higher than the flu, maybe much higher than the flu. And it appears to be far more contagious, which is a real problem. Whenever I hear someone say, "Eh, it's no more dangerous than the flu," I can't help but wince. This thing is more contagious, more deadly, more likely to require extended hospitalization, and more likely to leave the person with long-lasting health problems afterward. I'm not panicking. But I am taking this seriously.

**Edit to Spell Out the Headline of the Attached Screenshot. "Coronavirus death toll climbs to 9 in U.S. as global mortality rate increases to 3.4%."
 

Attachments

Suzanne Bazemore

Silver Contributor
FASTLANE INSIDER
Read Millionaire Fastlane
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
Summit Attendee
Speedway Pass
Sep 30, 2018
426
929
335
It actually says a lot about the power of peer pressure. We're more terrified of being perceived by the outgroup as a chicken little than we are of being caught without extra bottled water in the basement during a pandemic. The world is one giant high school cafeteria, @Vigilante

Also, pretty sure those pork and beans will blow the house down before a hurricane will. :rofl:
I was thinking of Noah the other day, and how he was made fun of by his community. Noah was the first Prepper, lol.

Also, like @MJ DeMarco (thanks for the books!!!) said, once they declare an emergency, or lock down your area, the food is gone. Where I live, we have to predict where hurricanes will hit before it is announced, and make sure prep occurs before this, too. So, like @Vigilante, I'll either have some food for hurricane season, or I can donate to the food pantry.

My son said, "Why did you buy canned chicken? But I guess if we don't have any food, I'll say, oh cool, canned chicken!"
 

Don't like ads? Remove them while supporting the forum. Subscribe.

biophase

Legendary Contributor
EPIC CONTRIBUTOR
FASTLANE INSIDER
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
Summit Attendee
Speedway Pass
Jul 25, 2007
7,101
32,975
5,083
Scottsdale, AZ
I shared what I shared because this thread had me legit panicked for about 4 hours a few days ago. Some people have shared some seemingly credible scary stuff on here.

The unknown nature of this gave my brain fits, especially when I asked myself, "What if my kids got the possibly weaponized never seen before world infecting killer virus for which we have no cure?"

Brain. Stopped. Working.

My fear felt irrational.

So I started seeking out the counterpoints. I had to know to what level of fear was rational.

And if I struggled with this kind of emotion, then others probably are/have.

That said, I personally stocked up because it is better to have and not need than need and not have.
This leads to an interesting question. As business owners, we deal with the unknown all the time. In fact, the unknown is pretty much the only truth that we know.

So maybe this is why some of us act differently than others to this virus. I know for me, my first reaction was to read the data, come to my own conclusions, make my own predictions and then do something about it.

This is why I stocked up a few weeks ago. That was for me personally. For my business, I ordered additional supplies that we needed for inventory and took steps to make sure we had enough inventory for the next 6-8 months.

When talking to others who work a regular job, they seemed to downplay everything. They didn't like to think about "what if scenarios." Maybe that is because "what if scenarios" to them are all doom and gloom. If you think about it, 9 to 5 workers worry about alot of things, like the economy, whether or not they will get laid off, and they can't do anything about them.

Maybe as entrepreneurs we see things from a different lens. We are used running scenarios in our heads and developing plans and solving problems.
 

Vigilante

Legendary Contributor
Staff member
EPIC CONTRIBUTOR
FASTLANE INSIDER
Read Millionaire Fastlane
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
Summit Attendee
Speedway Pass
Oct 31, 2011
10,463
62,030
4,655
Gulf Coast
I was thinking of Noah the other day, and how he was made fun of by his community. Noah was the first Prepper, lol.

Also, like @MJ DeMarco (thanks for the books!!!) said, once they declare an emergency, or lock down your area, the food is gone. Where I live, we have to predict where hurricanes will hit before it is announced, and make sure prep occurs before this, too. So, like @Vigilante, I'll either have some food for hurricane season, or I can donate to the food pantry.

My son said, "Why did you buy canned chicken? But I guess if we don't have any food, I'll say, oh cool, canned chicken!"
lol the canned chicken was one of the things my wife questioned
 

Vigilante

Legendary Contributor
Staff member
EPIC CONTRIBUTOR
FASTLANE INSIDER
Read Millionaire Fastlane
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
Summit Attendee
Speedway Pass
Oct 31, 2011
10,463
62,030
4,655
Gulf Coast
This leads to an interesting question. As business owners, we deal with the unknown all the time. In fact, the unknown is pretty much the only truth that we know.

So maybe this is why some of us act differently than others to this virus. I know for me, my first reaction was to read the data, come to my own conclusions, make my own predictions and then do something about it.

This is why I stocked up a few weeks ago. That was for me personally. For my business, I ordered additional supplies that we needed for inventory and took steps to make sure we had enough inventory for the next 6-8 months.

When talking to others who work a regular job, they seemed to downplay everything. They didn't like to think about "what if scenarios." Maybe that is because "what if scenarios" to them are all doom and gloom. If you think about it, 9 to 5 workers worry about alot of things, like the economy, whether or not they will get laid off, and they can't do anything about them.

Maybe as entrepreneurs we see things from a different lens. We are used running scenarios in our heads and developing plans and solving problems.
brilliant and interesting introspection

but sal would be an outlier to the theory
 

JScott

Legendary Contributor
EPIC CONTRIBUTOR
Speedway Pass
Aug 24, 2007
4,532
9,793
2,201
It actually says a lot about the power of peer pressure. We're more terrified of being perceived by the outgroup as a chicken little than we are of being caught without extra bottled water in the basement during a pandemic. The world is one giant high school cafeteria, @Vigilante

Also, pretty sure those pork and beans will blow the house down before a hurricane will. :rofl:
Not peer pressure...normalcy bias:


Well, maybe peer pressure too, but I'm guessing mostly normalcy bias...
 

JScott

Legendary Contributor
EPIC CONTRIBUTOR
Speedway Pass
Aug 24, 2007
4,532
9,793
2,201
lol. Obviously I’m not the one personally doing the calculations. The numbers are coming from updated CDC stats SINCE February 1st.
The February 1 data is supposedly based on China cases, so CDC wouldn't have any additional insight over and above what China is releasing. I haven't seen any reputable sources indicating that the mortality rate is under 2% at this point, and WHO is now saying that it's likely above 3%:


Just a good reminder to check your sources...there's a lot of bad info floating around out there.

I would recommend going by CDC data for US cases, WHO data for worldwide and reputable scientists who work in the field of epidemiology for analysis.
 

million$$$smile

Platinum Contributor
FASTLANE INSIDER
Read Millionaire Fastlane
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
Summit Attendee
Speedway Pass
Dec 25, 2012
680
4,609
1,004
Midwest
This brings up an interesting thought, regarding receiving the annual flu shots, and if by chance that could possibly help prevent people from possibly catching COVID-19. Could it be a defense in contracting the virus?

I personally have never gotten flu shots, but I'm the type that will rarely even take aspirin let alone most shots. But I would really consider it if it might thwart the chance of getting it.

It has made me more conscious of washing my hands and wiping down items.
 

GPM

Platinum Contributor
Read Millionaire Fastlane
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
Summit Attendee
Speedway Pass
Oct 25, 2012
750
3,298
775
Canada
It is good to have food and water and other essentials stocked up at all times, even when things are good in the world. It doesn't take much in our modern world to upset the status quo. Wouldn't you rather have a full tank of gas and food in the house BEFORE shit hits the fan, rather than during?

Don't let your vehicles get less than half a tank of gas. Imagine being the guy that can leave town, rather than being the guy stuck in a 3 hour lineup for 5L of gas. I learned to keep my gas tank full at all times just because it is cold up here lots of the year, and I want to be able to choose to fill it up on warmer days rather than being forced to fill during a blizzard or something. Same goes for if shit ever hits the fan.
 

Mckenzie

Bronze Contributor
FASTLANE INSIDER
Read Millionaire Fastlane
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
Speedway Pass
Aug 25, 2013
129
179
148
When talking to others who work a regular job, they seemed to downplay everything. They didn't like to think about "what if scenarios." Maybe that is because "what if scenarios" to them are all doom and gloom. If you think about it, 9 to 5 workers worry about alot of things, like the economy, whether or not they will get laid off, and they can't do anything about them.
Thanks Biophase. This explains why a cashier wasn't very happy when I came out with just a 2/3 trolly of foods/stuffs yesterday. She looked at me in a very unfriendly / sour-faced and pretended to talk to talked to the other man ".... I don't understand why people stocking up....it's silly...it's only the medias blowing it up...it's nothing....blabla..."
 

GIlman

Still Gilman
FASTLANE INSIDER
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
Summit Attendee
Speedway Pass
Oct 16, 2014
692
3,900
886
This brings up an interesting thought, regarding receiving the annual flu shots, and if by chance that could possibly help prevent people from possibly catching COVID-19. Could it be a defense in contracting the virus?

I personally have never gotten flu shots, but I'm the type that will rarely even take aspirin let alone most shots. But I would really consider it if it might thwart the chance of getting it.

It has made me more conscious of washing my hands and wiping down items.
Not likely. Flu is influenza virus vs corona virus. Two totally different species. There can be cross immunity between different strains of flu, depending on how much similarity to other flu viruses.

one of the scary things about CV at the moment is that as it grows in the population, the more likely there are to be mutated variants and yearly recurrence of CV outbreaks. So we may go through years of different waves of infection. Time will tell. Hopefully this won’t be the case, but something I have been thinking about a lot lately.
 

Create an account or login to comment

You must be a member in order to leave a comment

Create account

Create an account on our community. It's easy!

Log in

Already have an account? Log in here.

Sponsored Offers

  • Sticky
MARKETPLACE Fox's Web Design Guide: Earn $100K this year (Yes, 2020!) and Go Fastlane
It's definitely possible, although it may not be feasible right away. I'm from the U.S. but have...
  • Sticky
FEATURED! Introducing... WEALTH EXPO$ED, A Short Story By MJ DeMarco
Amazing book! Actually I bought it, before I joined the forum and it motivated me to join...
  • Sticky
MARKETPLACE How To Create A 100K-1M+ Sales Funnel
@LynX You know, this is a "Marketplace" Thread. Completely appropriate to offer goods and...
  • Sticky
MARKETPLACE You Are One Call Away From Living Your Dream Life - LightHouse’s Accountability Program ⚡
Dropping a quick note in here to say... if you are on TFL, you are part of an elite group of...
  • Sticky
MARKETPLACE KAK’s “Kill Bigger” Incubation Program- With DAILY personal attention.
I joined @Kak's business incubator in the first week of May. During our daily chats we uncovered...
  • Sticky
MARKETPLACE Lex DeVille's - Advanced Freelance Udemy Courses!
This is your May reminder that you can do this. I'll keep it short. These are the May promos...
  • Sticky
MARKETPLACE Grow Your Business With a Book (An Unorthodox Marketing Strategy That Built One of the Largest...
Thanks! This is a cool idea, actually. I would like to use your experience as I heard that these...


Visit A Forum Sponsor
sponsor

Fastlane Insiders

View the forum AD FREE.
Private, unindexed content
Detailed process/execution threads
Monthly conference calls with doers
Ideas needing execution, more!

Join Fastlane Insiders.

Top Bottom
AdBlock Detected - Please Disable

Yes, ads can be annoying. But please...

...to support the Unscripted/Fastlane mission (and to respect the immense amount of time needed to manage this forum) please DISABLE your ad-block. Thank you.

I've Disabled AdBlock