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HOT TOPIC The Worldwide Covid-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

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biggeemac

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I suspect this turn of events is going to change life as we know it substantially, even if we don't experience massive loss of life. It is exposing so many vulnerabilities that most people gave little thought to. I had already started some time ago bulking up on supplies and food, since my wife and I are directly responsible for many lives with our business. Hoping for the best here.
 

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Around here in Canada, we are starting to wake up about Coronavirus. I'm seeing people more and more wear masks and companies are starting to take some precautions. So far we only have 12 cases and 3 have recovered. Still, I'm keeping a watchful eye. It think my cutoff might be around 100 infections or so, before I really start to stock up.

I always have reserves at home though, since I pretty much exclusively shop at Costco.
 

Bearcorp

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Wuhan virus or not, my house is equipped for blacksmiting, metal casting, raising chickens, growing fruit, growing herbs, pickling, making soap, making antiseptics, and making mead or wine. With slight effort I can add distilling, black powder, stronger antiseptics (cautery stuff like silver nitrate), and probably basic antibiotics. I would hate for the thing to blow up into a real apocalypse, and I don't even remotely think it will, but if it does I'll be one of this dark age's fuedal lords ;) Come on by the fortress if things get rough with the shambling masses of Corona zombies.
Has Rabby the Wise added the distilling yet? At this stage I'm travelling to the USA in May and if it's to dangerous to come home I'd love to be a banner man for your fortress and assist with the alcohol production and consumption :thumbsup:
 

MJ DeMarco

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Don't know how often the S. Koreans are reporting infections, but their last update went up by a significant percentage (According to the Arcgis website).
 

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Don't know how often the S. Koreans are reporting infections, but their last update went up by a significant percentage (According to the Arcgis website).
the magic of compound interest. Coming soon to a neighborhood near you.

The South Koreans are a model for how to handle this thing. They've tested tens of thousands and are taking appropriate measures to contain, to the greatest extent possible you can contain something with such a high infectivity.

Our own government? It's like they put the Three Stooges in charge. Nothing but negligence and malfeasance. Lack of testing, mixing infected and non infected evacuees, not disclosing the number of people under observation (Tampa, FL), allowing a carrier to sit in the hospital for days while he infects others... the list goes on and on. So great is the buffoonery, it's almost looking like a deliberate attempt to spread the contagion.

I'm not trying to spread doom porn or conspiracy theories here, but there is literally no reason to believe it will be contained here in the States.

If anybody reading this is in the States and hasn't started getting ready, please do so.
 

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Has Rabby the Wise added the distilling yet? At this stage I'm travelling to the USA in May and if it's to dangerous to come home I'd love to be a banner man for your fortress and assist with the alcohol production and consumption :thumbsup:
It occurs to me that distilled alcohol is a very effective disinfectant too, so I think I will accelerate development of the distilling facilities. Alcohol producers and consumers welcome. We'll brew up some Dutch Courage and fight off the dark age.
 

MattR82

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The Chinese F1 grand prix has obviously been cancelled, but will be interesting to see what happens with the season opener in Melbourne in a few weeks.

Following that is Bahrain and Hanoi which look pretty shaky and I can't see going ahead. But not sure how happy I'd be living in Melbourne and having that traveling circus fly in from all over the world.

Ferrari base in Maranello is close to quarantine zones already. Talk of F1 losing hundreds of millions this year.

Oh, and my favourite Yum Cha restaurant in Chinatown just shut down after 30 years in business :(
Apparently it's becoming a trend here in Australia, a lot of them closing down.
 
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loop101

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The Black Death (200M dead) and The Spanish Flu (50M dead), both originated in China. Every year a new strain of the flu comes from there. Supposedly, this is because Chinese farmers (still) cohabitate with their livestock. If true, the rest of the world may have to force China to put a stop to that practice. I think that option will be on the table after COVID19.

I can imagine a scenario where every other nation on Earth threatens to completely boycott China if they don't make that change, and what we are seeing now is a little taste of that. If the world does nothing, and China continues to roll the influenza dice, one year, maybe this year, something really nasty is going to come out China - again.
 

AnneC

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Is the WHO actually not declaring a pandemic because of this??
From what I understand, there are certain “triggers” that need to be met for the bonds... not just the WHO declaring it a pandemic or not.

The main one we’re waiting on is the 12 weeks, and a second country with more than 20 deaths. We’ve already hit the 250 total deaths.

This Reddit thread has a good explanation (and a link to the actual document):
https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/f9wwru View: https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/f9wwru/425m_in_world_bank_catastrophe_bonds_set_to/
 

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Primeperiwinkle

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From what I understand, there are certain “triggers” that need to be met for the bonds... not just the WHO declaring it a pandemic or not.

The main one we’re waiting on is the 12 weeks, and a second country with more than 20 deaths. We’ve already hit the 250 total deaths.

This Reddit thread has a good explanation (and a link to the actual document):
https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/f9wwru View: https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/f9wwru/425m_in_world_bank_catastrophe_bonds_set_to/
Dammmmmit my article was totally unnecessary. Sorry for that tangent but I’m thankful for this clarification!

Sometimes the redditors are really helpful. There’s one guy who went to the trouble to explain quite a bit which I then googled to understand more.

And yes, I can speed read. Lol.
 

Rabby

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Hey Smart People,
Wtf does this article mean? Is the WHO actually not declaring a pandemic because of this??
The bonds are debt financing. What they are doing is supplying capital for an insurance contract, similar to catastrophe reinsurance that keeps insurance companies afloat after disasters like hurricanes. What's really responding to the situation, or waiting to respond, is an insurance policy. Basically, it will say something like "if this many deaths happen in this period of time, we will accept the financial consequences up to this limit."

It's a multi-step risk transfer... take the risk from the local people and local governments and transfer it to a large government organization - government as insurance. Then, because the government organization doesn't actually have the funding for extreme catastrophes, create a financial instrument that allows for the transfer of risk to a corporation, syndicate, or other well funded organization that can underwrite enormous risks. Insurance companies, reinsurance companies, syndicates of insurance and finance houses, etc.

Now you have a contract that says the risk is on the company/syndicate if it reaches a certain level. But that company can also offload part of the risk to sophisticated investors (institutions, family office, rich folks, etc.). Investor buys a bond, and company sells that bond, to supply capital for the insurance program. I would have to read the instrument itself to take you past this point; according to that article, the bond does not perform if the policy pays (or, that's what it implies). At any rate, the bond investors' returns are, in some capacity and through some agreement, tied to whether or not the insurance contract is triggered. That contract probably does not care whether some expert calls this a pandemic. I think it is likely tied to death tolls and dollar amounts. Insurance is usually, though not always, good about things like that. I can name some exceptions to common sense though.

Someone with more google-fu than I have the energy to express today might find a copy of one of these contracts, and then I could tell you a lot more about it. But there is some secondary source information here, which more or less confirms my assumptions about how the contracts would be structured.
 

EVMaso

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Oh, and my favourite Yum Cha restaurant in Chinatown just shut down after 30 years in business :(
Apparently it's becoming a trend here in Australia, a lot of them closing down.
Not just in Australia, but also North America. It's an immigrant generational thing though.


“These people came to cook so their children wouldn’t have to, and now their children don’t have to.”
 

Rabby

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From what I understand, there are certain “triggers” that need to be met for the bonds... not just the WHO declaring it a pandemic or not.

The main one we’re waiting on is the 12 weeks, and a second country with more than 20 deaths. We’ve already hit the 250 total deaths.

This Reddit thread has a good explanation (and a link to the actual document):
https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/f9wwru View: https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/f9wwru/425m_in_world_bank_catastrophe_bonds_set_to/
Blessings upon you for finding that original document. The google is strong in this one.
 

Rabby

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I just want to mention that since we have pandemic bonds, we had might as well develop pandemic futures and pandemic futures-options. Who has a contact at CBOE?
 

PizzaOnTheRoof

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Best case you just eat the food and drink the water.

Worst case you NEED food and water and YOU DONT HAVE IT.

Please prepare guys. This is not SARS, Swine Flu, or Bird Flu. We don’t even know how similar to the flu it even is.

A viable vaccine is minimum 12 months away.

SARS didn’t shutdown entire countries.

Asymptomatic transmission, HIV component, re-infection of recovered patients.

These are not traits of “another flu”. Give me a break.

Don't panic but FFS take it seriously.
 

GIlman

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Best case you just eat the food and drink the water.

Worst case you NEED food and water and YOU DONT HAVE IT.

Please prepare guys. This is not SARS, Swine Flu, or Bird Flu. We don’t even know how similar to the flu it even is.

A viable vaccine is minimum 12 months away.

SARS didn’t shutdown entire countries.

Asymptomatic transmission, HIV component, re-infection of recovered patients.

These are not traits of “another flu”. Give me a break.

Don't panic but FFS take it seriously.
I’ve seen no indication that this virus has any HIV component. I think some people have construed this because it is an RNA virus and HIV is also a RNA virus.

Coronavirus however contains actual RNA that directly codes for proteins. HIV contains negative sense RNA and an enzyme called reverse transcriptase that allows it to convert the negative RNA into normal RNA that can then encode proteins.

Your genes are carried on DNA and your cells produce RNA as temporary templates to make proteins.
 

PizzaOnTheRoof

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I’ve seen no indication that this virus has any HIV component. I think some people have construed this because it is an RNA virus and HIV is also a RNA virus.

Coronavirus however contains actual RNA that directly codes for proteins. HIV contains negative sense RNA and an enzyme called reverse transcriptase that allows it to convert the negative RNA into normal RNA that can then encode proteins.

Your genes are carried on DNA and your cells produce RNA as temporary templates to make proteins.
My bad. Not directly HIV but HIV-Like.


“Has an HIV-like mutation that means its ability to bind with human cells could be up to 1,000 times as strong as the Sars virus, according to new research by scientists in China and Europe.”
 

PizzaOnTheRoof

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I don’t buy that people can get it a second time, especially in such a short timeframe.

imagine that when you get infected, the volume of viruses produced becomes like a swimming pool full of water. Your immune system mounts a response and drains the pool. Then right after it’s challenged with 1 drop and all the immunity your body built to drain the pool can’t handle that one drop.

unlikely. Unless you encounter a mutated virus your immunity is ineffective against.

sometimes immunity can dwindle over time, but not in days or weeks. Usually it’s years or decades.

the more likely explanation is that either the first of the second Illness was misattributed to Coronavirus. something like a false positive test result. Or they are going on clinical symptoms alone which is highly inaccurate.
I agree. If you didn't make antibodies strong enough to overcome the virus, you wouldn't get over the virus in the first place. Getting re-infected soon after recovery would imply a different strain, mutated sufficiently that your antibodies became irrelevant.
 

GIlman

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Reading that article they are making a case for a second wave of The same infection more than a reinfection with a separate second inoculation. Granted from a patients perspective it’s all the same.

patients were cleared by throat and nose swabs, doesn’t mean it’s cleared in the lungs. They used xrays and CT’s to do that. I happen to know a whole lot about that, and CT’s can’t tell you if a pathogen is cleared, just if there is inflammation or fluid in the lungs.

As I read that article the two most likely reasons are wrong test results clearing the patient (false negative) or that there was a resurgence of the disease. There is another illness, which I can’t remember, that has this bimodal pattern. You will get better then there will be a second resurgence.
 

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nowap

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There is another illness, which I can’t remember, that has this bimodal pattern. You will get better then there will be a second resurgence.
Malaria? Although I am not sure you will feel completely better in between the fever waves.
 

Timmy C

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Just listed some masks for sale on ebay, if its good enough for others its good enough for me. Trying to sell the same items elsewhere. Testing to see what channel is the best. Just arbitrage until i can determine that yes i can sell them.

Got a few importers im in contact with to.

Best to take it seriously guys, don't think anyone should panic, unless you haven't prepared that is.
 

GSF

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Think we'll see a significant breakout through Europe (outside of italy) in coming weeks or maybe days.

Was due to travel abroad this weekend, booked it last year. Have cancelled. Area got its first case a few days ago close to where i was going and more have since followed. Healthwise im higher risk. Dont want chance of being quarantined abroad. Dont want to risk bringing it back and spreading it. Not worth the risk.
 

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nowap

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I'm keeping an eye on the warmer / tropical countries. Nothing much seems to be happening there.

The cases in Malaysia were mostly 'imported'. Although some local infections have happened, nothing really happened there.

Same in Thailand and Philippines. Indonesia has 0 infections, which may or may not be true. But there's nothing similar to Italy or South Korea happening there.

Which is extraordinary, given the closeness to the source of the outbreak and the amount of travel between China and those countries.

Singapore has got quite a few cases now. But it's going up linear, not exponentially like in Italy or S.Korea, 2 to 5 new cases per day maybe.

update: from studies with SARS (238 cases in Singapore ) it is suspected that the "intensive use of air-conditioning" was a factor in the spread.

(here is a nice overview of transmissions in Singapore: COVID-19 cases in Singapore)

There's now 1 case in Brazil (summer/hot) and 1 in Nigeria (also hot). Both are 'imported' Italians. Hoping for the best there.

In Wuhan it is cold. South Korea it is cold now. North of Italy is cold. A lot of new infections are happening in France, Germany and Holland.. also cold now.

There is 1 case in Sevilla, Spain where they don't know how the man got it. Which is worrying.

He has been in the hospital for a few days, and from what I understood (my Spanish is not so good) he was not in quarantine for the first few days. Here's an interview with him (in Spanish): El sevillano con coronavirus: «No estoy asustado, los médicos me transmiten mucha tranquilidad»

update: 69 health workers from the hospital have been send home for self-quarantine for 14 days.

The Italians admitted that the hospital also didn't quarantine one of the early cases. He probably infected many in the hospital, starting the outbreak.

So very interested to see how things in Sevilla will go. Both because I live quite closeby, and also because it's quite warm here now (20+ degrees Celsius in the afternoon).
 
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GIlman

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I saw this morning, that health care workers in California who had exposure to that patient have been asked to self-quarantine for 14 days. It dawned on me this morning that the best option is to get the virus early or not at all. Getting the virus late is a huge gamble.

What is it that sets the US apart from say China, a huge part of it is the quality and availability of our medical care here. But what happens when that care is not available for the following reasons:

1) There are only so many ICU nurses, Respiratory therapists, Intensivists (MD), Radiologists (MD), and other staff that make the critical care system work. What happens when too many are either sick, or simply quarantined for fear they could infect other patients. Only Radiologists can work from home, at least for diagnostic purposes. Everyone else really has to be there in person.

2) There are only so many ICU rooms that can support critical patients, and many hospital are already running at high capacity. What happens when there are no more available rooms available for new patients.

3) Each hospital only has so many ventilators and other equipment for critical patients, what happens when they are all in use already.

4) ICU Patients take very specific types of drugs to keep their blood pressure up and to force their body to keep fighting. I don't know the specifics of any drug, but some are almost certainly made in china or have components that come from China. What happens when these drugs run short.

Any one or all of these things and we are more or less reduced to near China level medical care. So that's why I say odds are better if you get severe illness to get it early while resources are still available, or not get it at all...of course a whole bunch of people won't need advanced care, but it is a roll of the dice if you or I will be one that does.
 

MoreValue

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Weren't the testing methodologies from CDC wildly inaccurate? Is it true they are just diagnosing people based on symptoms alone, since there aren't any accurate testing methods?

A person has fever, cough, sore throat....gee I guess that narrows it to every other illness. But they diagnose like you got coroavirus! I just think the numbers are wayyyy overblown. Feel like majority just have the regular flu or cold.
 

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I've thought the same thing. The lucky ones are the ones who get it early, while there's still medical care.

I don't know the specifics of any drug, but some are almost certainly made in china or have components that come from China. What happens when these drugs run short.
Yeah, this really worries me.

(article published in Aug 2019, so it's not "loaded" with any coronavirus-tainted opinions)

^^According to the Council on Foreign Relations , 97 percent of all antibiotics in the United States come from China.

In addition,

About 80 percent of the active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) used to make drugs in the United States are said to come from China and other countries like India.
Cool, so can we just switch to India for a supply of these ingredients?

It is true that many Indian pharmaceutical firms are leading API manufacturers but India depends on China for sourcing nearly three quarters of APIs in generic drug formulations.
A drug shortage will affect anyone with medical needs. People who need surgeries. Women who deliver babies. Anyone with chronic illness.
 

MoreValue

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Cool, so can we just switch to India for a supply of these ingredients?
What is up with this xenophobia? Do people not realize that most viruses don't survive very long outside the human body? For example, you can't catch HIV from a toilet seat. Idk maybe this virus is different
 

nowap

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What is up with this xenophobia? Do people not realize that most viruses don't survive very long outside the human body? For example, you can't catch HIV from a toilet seat. Idk maybe this virus is different
I believe Bekit is talking about supply problems (factories closed in China, etc), not virus infection of the boxes.
 

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